COLONIAL ATHLETIC 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. TOWSON

WHAT I LIKE: Co-regular season champs Towson immediately became the newly beefed up CAA favorite when Cam Holden announced his intention to return. Holden is arguably the best player in the league, and certainly the most unique as a point-4 who can basically do everything on the floor (although the jump shot needs some ironing out). Towson’s switchability at the 3 and 4 led to the league’s most efficient ball screen defense, per ShotQuality, and the most effective press in terms of PPP allowed (a meager .67 PPP per Synergy)- which of course all added up to the best defense in the league (.96 PPP in league play, by far the best mark in the CAA). Nic Timberlake leads the way on the wing after developing into one of the league’s best volume 3PT shooters last year, canning nearly 40% of his triples in CAA play. That’s a huge development for any Pat Skerry offense, who is typically hyper focused on pounding the ball to the rim. Speaking of that, Towson still led the league in post rate thanks to the ever sturdy Charles Thompson, but they weren’t particularly efficient scoring in the post, scoring at just .78 PPP. Thompson himself was the league’s most efficient volume post, but Holden wasn’t nearly effective when backing his man down. Thompson will once again be one of the league’s best two way rebounders, and pounding the offensive glass is synonymous with any Pat Skerry led team. SEMO’s Nygal Russell adds to the wing depth as a shooter with a handle, but he was likely a Skerry target because of the way he rebounds his position. Christian May’s athleticism at the 3 should carve out some minutes for him as a frosh in a deep position. The most intriguing addition comes via D2 POY Sekou Sylla. Sylla was a double double machine and a backdown force at the rim, but I’m not sure about his perimeter/ball skill game at this level, as I didn’t see much of any of it via highlight tapes, which is a tad concerning.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The PG situation is hazy, but tenable. Rahdir Hicks is probably the favorite to man the point as returning guard in Skerry’s program, and Jason Gibson doesn’t have the shot creating ability on the ball (plus he’s just much better served as a spot shooter). The potential ceiling at the point is raised significantly however by Ryan Conway, who transfers in from Seton Hall. Conway is incredibly shifty on the ball and can collapse the defense on the dribble consistently, something Towson lacked in the backcourt last year and could really help with some mediocre spacing. Conway has the potential to turn this perceived weakness into a major strength, and raise Towson into one of the best midmajor teams in the country, not just the CAA.

2. UNC WILMINGTON

WHAT I LIKE: I tabbed the Seahawks for second to last at this same time a year ago, and after a rough start to the season where UNCW looked befuddled by any zone, I looked spot on. But then Takayo Siddle retooled the offense on the fly and UNCW reeled off one of the more improbable runs in the entire country before falling just short in the CAA title game- turning themselves into one of the feel good stories of the year, especially coupled with incredibly rowdy atmosphere Trask when the Seahawks took flight. UNCW was also unlucky defensively in that run, with offenses hitting the 3 ball at a rate that was 4% higher than expected, per ShotQuality- which makes sense given UNCW’s aggressive perimeter pressure (31% press rate per Synergy, by far the highest in the league) allowed the lowest open 3 rate in the league, but CAA offenses still managed to shoot nearly 40% against them. Level out that abnormal shooting and UNCW probably contends with Towson as the best defensive team in the league, especially with the addition Maleeck Harden-Hayes, who will be a holy terror at the top of Siddle’s pressure schemes and in the passing lanes as a long, athletic 6’7 wing- providing a foil for Trazarien White’s likely offensive explosion in his second season. MHH wasn’t Siddle’s only portal homerun, as a former recruit of his at NC State in Nick Farrar jumps CAA ships. Farrar has an incredibly intriguing ceiling as wide bodied 2/3/4 who can bully his way to the rim in one of the league’s most downhill offenses. Siddle also imported Donovan Newby from Milwaukee, a downhill rim runner with a decent jump shot who can certainly share ball handling duties with Jamarii Thomas, allowing Shy Phillips to stay off the ball and become the alpha scorer in Jaylen Sims’ departure. Siddle also addressed some frontcourt issues via the portal, adding intriguing stretch 4 Eric van der Heijden out of Ole Miss and high motor traditional big Victor Enoh from Marist. van der Heijden’s skill set as a big is something UNCW hasn’t had under Siddle, and would add much needed spacing to the dribble drive offense.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Did UNCW catch lightning in a bottle last year, or was it the beginning of sustained CAA success? It’s a lingering question because of the start to the season still lodged in the back of my mind, and the loss of Sims. Per hooplens, UNCW’s offense posted an anemic .89 PPP in the rare moments Sims was off the floor in CAA play, and 1.06 PPP with him. His size and reads out of ball screens was invaluable, and there’s no obvious replacement for that skillset on the roster.

3. HOFSTRA

WHAT I LIKE: Aaron Estrada and the Pride backcourt. With Estrada returning, Hofstra will once again be the league’s most efficient and prolific PNR offense. Estrada was by far the most prolific ball screen guard in the league last year per Synergy, and posted an astounding 115 ORtg in CAA play despite leading the league in usage and shot rate. Estrada also posted the 2nd highest assist rate in the league while canning 37% from deep- a true three level scorer and the favorite for CAA POY. With the depth at the 1/2/3, I’d be surprised if Speedy Claxton doesn’t stick with his 4 out spread PNR again, likely at even higher rate. Claxton can push Estrada off the ball with Jaquan Carlos at the point, a high scoring PG who was buried on the depth chart last year, and the addition of Tyler Thomas from Sacred Heart provides yet another ball screen option and volume shooter. Thomas likely slots in at the 3 in this scenario with floor stretcher Darlinstone Dubar at the 4, poised for a massive season with defensive attention Estrada and Thomas will command. High scoring JUCO shooter German Plotnikov and Penn transfer Bryce Washington (would start at the 3 for half the teams in the CAA) only add incredible depth to this backcourt/wing unit. With this lineup, Hofstra should once again have the league’s best spacing and shot making, where they were top 40 nationally per ShotQuality metrics, and the shot selection and open 3 rate (despite shooting the 3 at the highest rate in the CAA) should improve with Zach Cooks gone.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. The Pride did generate the league’s highest turnover rate and steal rate, but that was mainly due to Cooks, who is of course departed. Hofstra’s struggles defending in PNR were evident, and Claxton ending up zoning at the league’s highest rate (just 11% of possessions, per Synergy, so nowhere near Mihalich era levels). Unfortunately the Pride were even worse in the 2-3. It all ended up with Hofstra allowing the highest open 3 rate in the league and they weren’t particularly strong defending at the rim either. Speaking of rim defense, Abayomi Iyiola was a relatively late portal loss for Claxton, but be mobilized quickly and brought in Manhattan’s Warren Williams. Iyiola was the league’s most efficient offensive player, but his offense was mainly generated through putbacks (highest OREB% in the league). Williams actually has a more diverse offensive skill set, but he’s just a touch less efficient on the boards and blocks. Davidson transfer Nelson Boachie-Yiadom will factor in heavily at the 5 as well, but it’s tough to go from McKillop’s constantly screening motion to one of the more PNR dominant offenses in the country.

4. CHARLESTON

WHAT I LIKE: Pat Kelsey delivered on his promise to make C of C basketball exciting, as the Cougars played at the 2nd fastest pace in the country with a deep and positionless bench. They problem was it led to a 22% TO rate and the league’s highest non steal TO%, indicating a lot of unforced errors (per KenPom). The idea appears to be that Wofford transfer Ryan Larson will be the primary ball handler, but he was never really a PG until last year. Regardless, he’ll pair with mega volume shooter Reyne Smith to form one of the best 3PT shooting duos in midmajor basketball with plentiful catch and shoots out of Kelsey uptempo motion (a bit of an oxymoron I know). Incoming frosh Jordan Crawford is a far more rounded and dynamic scorer than Larson, and could eventually be Kelsey’s preferred pace pushing ballhandler. Kelsey’s wing corps is deep and versatile, which isn’t a surprise. Raekwon Horton should shine as one of the league’s most athletic wing with a bigger role, and even flashed a decent jump shot in league play. NAIA stud Jaylon Scott brings some much needed defensive intensity to the wing, as the Cougars were the worst ball screen defense in the league, and one of the worst in the country (and opposing offenses exploited this weakness ad nauseam). Dalton Bolon returns healthy from a foot injury to the wing corps as well, and has the stroke to be the league’s best spot shooter. Kelsey refined the frontcourt, which provided almost no offensive production last year, with the addition of highly skilled stretch shooter Ante Brzovic from the D2 ranks. Babacar Faye is the thunder portion of that 4 tandem, and Ben Burnham was underrated rebounder and defender last year. Chuck Lampten meanwhile is a brick wall at the rim, but he has to balance out his block to foul ratio to stay on the floor in defensive scenarios.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Speed often killed the Cougars last year with that aforementioned fatal TO rate, and I’m not fully sold on Larson having the skill set to play the athletic, uptempo game Kelsey prefers. Additionally, the defensive woes were somewhat addressed with Scott, but he’s just one player, and the holes were in several spots on the roster. This team will score, but can they limit the extra possessions the other way and get enough stops to balance the ledger into a top tier CAA entry?

5. DELAWARE

WHAT I LIKE: Arguably the most balanced offense in the league with arguably the best x’s and o’s coach in Martin Ingelsby. The defending champs lost a lot of scoring punch, but return Jameer Nelson at the point and what will be the league’s most dominant post player in Jyare Davis. I wrote about this extensively at the time, but Davis essentially Wally Pipp’d the now graduated Dylan Painter when he suffered a high ankle sprain on a slippery Towson floor. Davis was unstoppable around the rim down the stretch, and was the reason why the Hens made a run through the CAA tournament. Davis ended up logging the 4th highest efficiency rating in the league, and is back for more in his second season with one of the CAA’s best PGs in tow. Ingelsby doesn’t utilize a primary ballhandler in the traditional sense in his constantly cutting offense (1.4 PPP off actions ending in cuts per ShotQuality last year), but Nelson is the “lead guard” as an efficient 3 level scorer (and fiend on the ball defensively). Ingelsby accounted for some of the lost offense from last year by adding LJ Owens from UMBC (making his return to the CAA after spending his FR year at William & Mary), who immediately becomes arguably the best volume shooter in the league. Combine Owens with Nelson’s shooting and the return of deadly spot shooter Ebby Asamoah, and the Hens should be the best shooting team in the league (led the CAA in catch and shoot efficiency) with likely the best spacing. Consequently, the Hens were the league’s best rim offense as well last season, scoring at 1.21 PPP when finishing at the rim (tops in the league) and 1 PPP in the post (2nd best in the CAA, per SQ).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Davis’ athleticism should translate better defensively than it showed last year, but he’s still instinctively raw and undersized in the post there. Nigel Shadd is broad shouldered former Kansas St center who can be an enforcer in the post, while Christian Ray from La Salle is more versatile 3 who can defend on the perimeter and at the 4 vs small ball/stretching lineups, but I suspect the Hens’ stout interior D takes a hit without Painter and Andrew Carr. Delaware was also routinely attacked off the dribble (most apparent by getting eviscerated by Hofstra’s stellar guards in 2 games), and Nelson remains the only plus defender on the perimeter.

6. NORTHEASTERN

WHAT I LIKE: Early injuries that robbed Northeastern of a point guard completely derailed the Huskies’ season, resulting in the worst year (by far) of the Bill Coen era. Coen didn’t dip into the portal at all, instead deciding to reset with the best and deepest freshman class in the CAA. I’ll get to the newcomers in a bit, but this offense will still be focused around Chris Doherty in the post and Jah Telfort as a massive combo guard. Doherty did everything he could to keep NU afloat last year, and was a beast on block, the best two way rebounder in the league, and logged the highest FT rate in the league. The problem was he had almost zero shooting around him to keep defenses from double and triple covering him. Telfort struggled with consistency and efficiency as the offensive alpha, and he’s just never going to have a jump shot to balance his excellent slashing abilities. That’s where the freshman class comes in, specifically Chase Cormier who can start at the point immediately. Cormier is a scoring combo guard but will have to assume lead guard duties, but he and wings Justin Turner and Harold Woods provide immediate shooting help for a team that was dead last in the league at 32%. Northeastern actually produced the highest catch and shoot rate in the league thanks to all the defensive collapses on Doherty- they just couldn’t make them. Turner is the more likely immediate contributor of the incoming wings, but Woods was the most impressive frosh by far during Northeastern’s Canadian tour (a surprise because he doesn’t have the recruiting pedigree of Cormier and Turner). Masai Troutman is the most athletically gifted of the deep incoming wing class, while Rashad King should contribute minutes as well. The availability of Joe Pridgen is huge for Coen as well, as is the return of a healthy Coleman Stucke. Pridgen can defend 1-4 and rebounds his position incredibly well, and despite the Huskies’ struggles basically everywhere, they were still the best defensive rebounding team in the league (a program staple under Coen). Wing depth is a major plus for the Huskies.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s a lot riding on Cormier immediately performing on the ball, as Glen McClintock isn’t the answer there. That’s troubling considering Cormier isn’t a pure PG and is of course in his first D1 season. Simply put, Northeastern was awful in every offensive metric with the exception of rim/post scoring thanks to Doherty and Telfort’s slashing/length at the rim. They did produce the highest open 3 rate, but that’s mostly be opposing defensive design, as opposing coaches essentially dared them to shoot the ball. ShotQuality logged NU at the bottom or near it in shot selection, spacing, and shot making. It’s difficult to convince oneself that a freshmen class, however deep and talented, quickly remedies all of those grave offensive concerns. There’s also little functional depth behind Doherty, who logged by far the most minutes of his career last year.

7. NORTH CAROLINA A&T

WHAT I LIKE: For a variety of reasons, the Aggies are the most intriguing team in the league. First, this is their first season in the CAA, but their talent level per Verbal Commits average ranking is by far the highest in the league. Second, they fired head coach Will Jones in early August and replaced him with assistant Phil Shumpert on an interim basis. Obviously the timing suggests some sort of cause other than performance, so that’s a nice little distraction heading into the season. Third, the Aggies will zone at the highest rate in the league (zoned at a 33% rate per Synergy, which would be triple Hofstra’s league leading rate last year), deploying a morphing 1-3-1 last season that was more efficient than their man to man. The CAA was an above average shooting league, so that’s a risky proposition should Shumpert maintain Jones’ scheme. I mentioned NC A&T’s talent level, and it’s high enough to keep them competitive in the top half of the league, even through a conference and coaching change. That said, the most talented players on the roster haven’t played a game together. Marcus Watson returns on the wing as the go to scorer- a slasher extraordinaire and plus rebounder for his position, but his lack of a jump shot weighted his efficiency. Demetric Horton also returns as more of a 3 and D wing, and he and Watson form one of the better wing units in the league. Shumpert has to replace Kam Langley at the point, but there are 3 extremely talented option ready to jump in. The most likely is Kam Woods, who showed a scoring penchant on the ball at Troy two years ago, then won a JUCO title last year. Woods is the scoring option, while freshmen Tyrese Elliott and Garrison Powell are more traditional distributors- very likely we see Woods, one of the freshmen, Horton, and Watson play 1-4 in a small ball lineup. Jones/Shumpert beefed up the 5 spot in the absence of Collin Smith, adding Arizona State’s Will Felton, an athletic 6’8 with a massive wingspan, and UC Irvine’s Austin Johnson, who instantly becomes the best rim protector in the league. With Johnson and Felton in tow, zoning might be out the window. The wildcard for NC A&T is Duncan Powell, who can be the league’s best pure power forward if he’s healthy after injury forced a redshirt last year.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: New head coach under unusual circumstances and new faces in key places certainly makes cohesion an issue. A&T was also incredibly iso/dribble drive reliant offensively last year (in an inefficient way), and it seems likely that continues given the personnel additions, however talented.

8. STONY BROOK

WHAT I LIKE: Stony Brook severely underwhelmed with a massively talented roster in their final AmEast season, running some of the most unstructured offense I saw last year, and the advanced stats back up the eye test (13th highest iso rate, 5th highest shot off the dribble rate per ShotQuality). That said, Geno Ford returns a sizeable amount of that talent for the Seawolves to have top half of the league upside in their first CAA foray. Sacred Heart PG Aaron Clarke is one of the better portal additions league wide, as he’s one of the best ball screen guards in the entire country, scoring at 1.04 PPP on a steady PNR diet last year. Yes, the CAA competition is a little tougher than the NEC, but Clarke is immediately one of the best floor generals in the league, especially if he can rediscover his jump shot from 2 seasons ago, which would in turn make him one of the best 3 level scorers in the league. The pieces around Clarke in the backcourt are solid too, with Tyler Stephenson-Moore poised to be one of the deadliest shooters in his new league (45% from 3 last year). Dean Noll comes over from Cornell as a secondary ball handler that can really get to the rim and defend the hell out of the ball, giving Ford rock solid stability at the point. It’s going to be hard for Toby Onyekonwu to crack the rotation, but he’s arguably the most talented PG on the roster. JUCO import Sabry Philip and returnee Frankie Policelli offer plus slashing and versatility in Policelli’s case on the wing. Assuming Clarke leads the way to a more structured offense, the Seawolves are going to be difficult to defend.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the backcourt is a definite strength, the frontcourt is more uncertain, albeit massive. 7 footer Keenan Fitzmorris is a potential portal steal for Ford as a former 3 star to Stanford, while 7’3 La Lumiere product Rocco Muratori is a mountainous project. That size is practically unparalleled in the CAA, but how functional is it? Former Coppin State floor stretcher Kenan Sarvan has an intriguing skill set offensively, but offers very little on the boards and blocks, while frosh Leon Nahar might actually provide the most realistic path to consistent frontcourt production.

9. DREXEL

WHAT I LIKE: The frontcourt. With the departure of Cam Wynter, the Dragons’ offense is really in flux, but Amari Williams will anchor one of the league’s better frontcourts. Williams blossomed into one of the league’s best 5s, leading the CAA in DREB%, FT rate, and block rate. Zach Spiker’s wing corps is an efficient duo of Coletrane Washington and Mate Okros, but both are going to have to increase their volume significantly from shot rates in the low teens. Of the freshmen class, Shane Blakeney is the most intriguing based on tape I’ve seen. He’s a big guard with a surprisingly tight handle and has three level scoring ability. I’d be surprised if he didn’t have an immediate impact given the offensive production that’s up for grabs.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Spiker replaced Wynter with…uh oh. Spiker hasn’t embraced the portal, and frosh Justin Moore is the only “true” PG on the roster. Defensively, Drexel was absolutely PNR’d to death last year, seeing it at the highest rate in the league with the second worst efficiency defending in it (per Synergy).

10. MONMOUTH

WHAT I LIKE: Tough year for King Rice and the Hawks to enter a new league, as they’re definitely embarking on a rebuild post Walker Miller and Shavar Reynolds. That said, Rice has a strong, versatile frontcourt highlighted by Myles Foster and Jarvis Vaughn. Foster will be force around the rim and Vaughn’s athleticism and floor stretching will shine with a larger role. Without force feeding Miller post touches this year, I would expect Rice to take the brakes off to rev up his traditional secondary break offense. Of the freshmen class, Amaan Sandhu is the most intriguing as a 7 footer out of India, but he’s a deep project, and Andrew Ball is the most likely to contribute with a guard skill set at 6’8.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There is a LOT of lost production, and Rice will be relying heavily on huge leaps from Foster, Vaughn, and Myles Ruth to play the point- and those leaps will have to massive in order for Monmouth to even compete in the top half of the league in their first CAA season.

11. HAMPTON

WHAT I LIKE: Another new addition to the league, Hampton will always bring athleticism, physicality, and a frenetic pace to the table under Buck Joyner, and the Pirates have a decent amount of talent to back it up this year with some key portal additions. Jordan Nesbitt is the clear highlight of Joyner’s portal plunder, a 6’6 slasher with ball skills who can get to the rim at will in this league- always a priority for any Joyner squad. Nesbitt, PG Deuce Dean, Marquis Godwin, and Ray Bethea all go 6’4 or more, giving Joyner an abundance of wing length/versatility. Dean especially is a problem with his build on the ball, bruising his way to the rim in Big South play while posting the league’s 7th highest assist rate. Incoming frosh Kyrese Mullen will be added immediately to that mix, and is a prototypical Joyner player, built like a linebacker but can put the ball on the floor. Dajour Dickens returns for another season to anchor the frontcourt as one of the best shot blockers in the entire country. Dickens is also incredibly efficient around the rim…when he’s able to stay on the floor, and his foul rate only increased last year. That’s not a good harbinger for his first CAA season which features more skilled big men. Matt McFarlane out of La Salle is an interesting addition as a stretch big, something not typically featured in Joyner’s offenses. Defensively, Joyner will mix in junk zones and frenetic pressure schemes, which might keep the league off balance for a bit, but eventually there’s little resistance, especially when Dickens has to check out.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: It’s easy to see Hampton’s physical style handcuffing them in a more skilled league than the Big South, and massive offensive efficiency concerns remain (remember, this offense was 350th in offensive efficiency margin last year per KenPom). Shot selection, spacing, and shot making were all among the worst in the country per ShotQuality, and that’s unlikely to significantly improve, even with Nesbitt in tow.

12. WILLIAM & MARY

WHAT I LIKE: Dane Fischer has quietly assembled a talented roster in his 4th season in Williamsburg, which he desperately needed after two horrific years. Fischer played the portal well, adding down transfers Gabe Dorsey (Vandy), Noah Collier (Pitt), Matteus Case (Providence), and Chris Mullins (Rice), and bringing in Anders Nelson from St. Thomas. Additionally, Fischer solidified a deep backcourt/wing rotation with two impact freshmen in PG Miles Hicks and wing Chase Lowe. Factor in the return of Tyler Rice and Fischer has a lot of ball screen options to work with in his attacking PNR offense. It’s no surprise Fischer hit the backcourt additions hard, as the Tribe’s turnovers were egregious, leading the CAA in TO rate, which was the 5th highest rate in the entire country. Rice logged the league’s 4th highest assist rate, but was also a volcano of turnovers, coughing it up on nearly a third of his possessions. Nelson and Mullins will help steady the position and move Rice over at times, but shooting from all 3 of those guards is a major question mark. Dorsey and Case on the wing were major scores, particularly the former with the ability to lead the team in scoring immediately as a 6’6 wing who can take a ball screen in what was the most prolific PNR offense in the league last year. While Fischer beefed up the backcourt, this team would be wise to play through Ben Wight, who was one of the most efficient posts in the league last year, but he didn’t get enough shots. Wight was the only member of the Tribe who played in over half their games to post an ORtg over 100 (114 for a top 25 CAA ranking). His rebounding and defense are suspect, but Fischer hopefully addressed that with the addition of Collier.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: As I mentioned, there wasn’t a single offensive aspect where William & Mary were close to respectable last year, outside of Wight’s production around the rim, and they were basically near to or dead last in efficiency in every advanced stat category. Defensively things were a little better, where the Tribe were actually a solid PNR defense, but a lot of that was due to Brandon Carroll’s versatility (a role Dorsey will have to fill), but Collier does improve their outlook in the blocks and boards department.

13. ELON

WHAT I LIKE: Veteran coach Billy Taylor takes over the Phoenix program after head coaching stops at Lehigh (where he won a Patriot League tournament title) and Ball State, and he was most recently on Fran McCaffery’s staff at Iowa. Taylor’s Ball State teams were always extremely rim oriented with downhill attacking guards, which is essentially the opposite of Mike Schrage’s spread PNR teams that were consistently top 30 (or better) in 3PTA rate. Frankly, there’s not a whole heck of a lot to be excited about with this roster. Jerald Gillens-Butler is the most talented player, but his health is such a huge question mark. You can cut and paste what I just said about Gillens-Butler and apply it to Jadun Michael, another talented but never healthy wing. Torrence Watson showed the most actual on court promise last year with a few scoring outbursts before also getting injured and missing the last half of the year. Those wings (plus Zac Ervin) should be the heart of Taylor’s first team, especially with their ability to find the rim, but they’re all essentially the same player.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Everything else. There’s no PG outside of RJ Noord, and he logged a single assist in sparse minutes last season. Andrew Junkin is big at the 5 and can block shots, but he fouls at the same rate that he blocks. I’m also not encouraged by Taylor’s inability to attract anything of note from an overflowing portal. It’s going to be a looooooong year in Elon.

CUSA 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. UAB

WHAT I LIKE: Jelly Walker. Walker is as good as it gets on the ball at a national level as a legit 3 level scorer with in the gym range. Walker is basically everything you want in a PG, from on court play to tone setting mentality. Walker dominated the league in his first CUSA season, pairing the highest shot rate and 2nd highest usage rate with a top 20 efficiency rating, hitting 40% of his threes, 90% of his FTs, and logging the league’s 3rd highest assist rate. Stud. Then Andy Kennedy went out and added Eric Gaines, another explosive on ball rim runner, making UAB’s backcourt virtually unguardable- no team in the league has two lock down perimeter defenders. Kennedy restocked the wing corps as well with LD and Ty Brewer transferring in from ETSU. Both were born to play in Kennedy’s frenetic pressure that prioritizes rangy, quick twitch athletes. LD is the scorer of the two and can score at all 3 levels, while Ty is switchable defender who can legitimately defend 1-5. Binghamton transfer Tyler Bertram will attempt to replace Michael Ertel’s spot shooting while Tavin Lovan will once again reprise his role as a “slash and D” wing and veteran glue guy. While frosh Butta Johnson might have trouble finding minutes this year, he’s yet another long Kennedy wing who can score at the rim and perimeter. The frontcourt remains intact as well, with Trey Jemison at the 5 and KJ Buffen the 4. With Walker dominating the offense, Jemison became almost a strictly blocks and boards big, which is perfect, as his offensive efficiency improved dramatically in the process of seeing his usage and shot rates decline. Buffen similarly knows his role as well offensively, putbacks and tip-ins, but he’s an extremely efficient rim option when need be (and he did carry the offense for stretches last year).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While UAB could certainly score at 1.13 PPP in league play again (by far the best mark in CUSA), ShotQuality suggests some hidden issues. The Blazers are a downhill team, no question, but they actually didn’t get to the rim that often, finishing with the 12th highest rim rate in the league (although they were the most efficient when they did get there). UAB’s shot selection was also lower middle of the CUSA pack, but again, Walker’s incredible shot making made up for it. UAB also produced the league’s lowest open 3 rate and by far the lowest unguarded jump shot rate, yet made nearly 40% of their triples (again, the Walker Effect). Walker is an unbelievable player, no doubt about it, but is it sustainable is the question. Obviously the addition of a guy like Gaines takes a lot of pressure off when teams swarm him, but a repeat gangbusters offensive performance from UAB as a whole is far from a given. There’s also the question of who replaces Quan Jackson as the head of the snake in Kennedy’s zone pressure (2nd highest press rate in the league). UAB often flipped a switch in the 2H with their pressure, and Jackson of course was at the heart of that. The Brewers, especially Ty, are capable of filling that role, and Lovan certainly knows how to orchestra Kennedy’s zone pressure, but Jackson was such a unique defender in that role. The defending champs are the team to beat until further notice, but there are some noticeable holes here.

2. WESTERN KENTUCKY

WHAT I LIKE: Stanz gonna Stanz, and the Hilltoppers just reloaded in a huge way. Let’s start with a quick rundown of the talent added: former 4 star Kentucky wing Dontaie Allen who could be the league’s best 3 and D, 6’8 Emmanuel Akot shot nearly 40% from 3 at Boise St with ball skills and can defend 1-4, former 5 star Indiana PG Khris Lander whose physical development has held him back, and former Stansbury recruit Jordan Rawls, a scoring PG. Stansbury also effectively mined the JUCO ranks again for do it all wing Tyrone Marshall (23rd ranked JUCO) and stretch shooter Fallou Diagne. That’s all in addition to returning what would be the best PG in the league in Dayvion McKnight if Jelly Walker didn’t still attend UAB, 7’5 human Space Needle Jamarion Sharp at the rim, and the league’s best spot shooter in Luke Frampton who hit nearly 50% of his league triples en route to the best efficiency rating in CUSA. Plus Jairus Hamilton returns, although I’m not sure where his minutes are going to come from now. Thanks to McKnight, WKU was one of the league’s most prolific and efficient PNR offenses, and despite ranking 10th in CUSA in ShotQuality’s shot selection metric and producing the league’s lowest open 3 rate, the Hilltoppers still canned 39% from deep. Akot and Allen should help immensely with those issues. WKU could easily be the best offense in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: WKU zoned at a 40% rate, nearly triple the rate of anyone else in the league, but CUSA is a top 10 shooting league, and the 2-3 designed to protect Sharp from fouls ultimately led to surrendering 1.02 PPP in league play- a bottom tier CUSA defense. With the versatility of Akot and Allen you’d love to see some more switching man to man, which would also remedy the poor defensive rebounding that plagued WKU and drastically reduce the league’s highest (by far) unguarded catch and shoot rate allowed (per Synergy). It’s just typically not a good idea to allow opposing offenses to have 14 unguarded jump shots a game (UTSA allowed the 2nd most per game at 10, for reference). Lastly, there’s the uncomfortable truth that talent on the court hasn’t always been reciprocated on the clipboard in Bowling Green.

3. NORTH TEXAS

WHAT I LIKE: The return of Grant McCasland and Tylor Perry. In early spring it seemed like a foregone conclusion that McCasland was headed to SMU and clutch ball screen wizard Perry would in turn exit as well- so it seems like a bit of miracle both are still in Denton, which means the Mean Green should once again be a tier 1 CUSA entry. Having a lead guard that totally dictates the terms of the game is the cornerstone of McCasland’s offense, and Perry was 4th in CUSA ORtg, shooting 41% from 3 and dishing out assists at the 4th highest rate. UNT is the epitome of possession control, as they played at the slowest pace in the entire country (Virginia was the only other team south of 60 possessions) with the highest APL, clocking in at just over 21 seconds per offensive possession. Perry’s offensive cast around him should keep UNT in the top tier of offensive efficiency, especially if Rubin Jones returns around December as expected. Jones’ shooting and spacing is a must (especially from the FT line where UNT was dead last in CUSA play despite leading the league in 3PT%), and he can spell Perry on the ball as well. North Dakota St transfer Tyree Eady is perfect McCasland wing, capable of taking the ball screen and can shoot it from 3, while defending 1-3 on the other end. McCasland brought in D2 scorer Kai Huntsberry for some additional scoring punch as well. UNT led the league in post rate last season (which took some doing with Junior Lofton in the league), and the Mean Green return Abou Ousmane at the 5, so that likely continues. Ousmane showed a much more refined post arsenal last year, and should provide even more consistent offense at the rim this season (as well as his lock down post defense where he allowed just .52 PPP per Synergy). New Hampshire deadeye floor stretcher Jayden Martinez was perhaps the biggest offseason addition for McCasland, as he needed someone to replace Thomas Bell’s production. Aaron Scott flashed a lot of potential as small ball 4 last year, and has elite defensive instincts.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: It’s odd to say this about a McCasland team, but I have more concerns about the defense than I do the offense. McCasland runs one of the elite no middle coverages in the entire country (22nd nationally in defensive efficiency margin per KenPom), and the Mean Green were heads and shoulders above the rest of the league defensively, allowing just .92 PPP. That said, McCasland has to replace arguably the two best pound for pound defenders in the league, and their opponents shot 4% lower from than expected per ShotQuality (although to counter that, UNT allowed a top 20 lowest open 3 rate nationally). UNT will always have an incredibly safe floor in CUSA play given McCasland’s scheme on both ends and just general x’s and o’s nuances, and a scenario where they once again end up atop the league is well within the realm of possibility.

4. FLORIDA ATLANTIC

WHAT I LIKE: Dusty May’s days in sunny Boca Raton are likely numbered, in a good way. FAU is a CUSA program on the rise, and May clearly is the reason why. The Owls were a top half offense and defense in the league, and suffered some bad defensive shooting luck all over the floor per ShotQuality, with an expected CUSA record of 13-5, which doesn’t include what SQ deemed an analytical win over UAB in the CUSA tourney (insert eyes emoji). The Owls essentially return everyone from last season, and are particularly loaded in the backcourt with Michael Forrest, Alijah Martin, BJ Greenlee, and Johnell Davis being joined by Nicholas Boyd and UConn transfer Jalen Gaffney. All but Martin and Davis can play on the ball, all can shoot, and all defend on the ball well, particularly Martin, Davis, and Gaffney. Per SQ, FAU was top 4 in shot selection, shot making, and spacing, but were bogged down by the 13th highest TO rate. With so many ball handling options at May’s disposal, that 20% rate should decrease, and the Owls’ efficiency will subsequently increase. Vlad Goldin and Giancarlo Rosado form a thunder and lightning duo in the frontcourt, with the former an imposing shot blocking presence at the rim (2nd in block rate) and the latter having a more fluid offensive skill set. FAU’s defense was particularly solid at taking away catch and shoots with their stable of guards/wings extended on the perimeter, willing to goad the dribble drive into Goldin. JUCO import Isaiah Gaines brings some needed athleticism and depth to the frontcourt as well.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: I noted the inordinately high TO rate for such a guard oriented team, and they were often hurt on the O glass with so many small ball/4 out lineups.

5. MIDDLE TENNESSEE

WHAT I LIKE: Slow clap for Nick McDevitt. I tabbed the Blue Raiders for last place at this time last year, but his extremely versatile and athletic roster pressed their way (33% press rate allowing .78 PPP per Synergy and creating a 21% TO rate, best in the league) to an incredible 13-5 league mark, and 10 game CUSA improvement from the season prior. They also coulda should woulda knocked off eventual champ UAB in the CUSA tourney, losing a heartbreaking 3OT slugfest. The Blue Raiders lose their two highest volume scoring threats, but have the most athleticism top to bottom in the league. No one highlights that athleticism better than Teafale Lenard, a legit 1-5 defensive menace and a total wrecking ball in the pressure schemes. Lenard’s offensive game lacked polish outside of thunderous dunks, but he was just a frosh. MTSU’s offensive ceiling is strongly tethered to his development. I mentioned the offensive productivity lost in the backcourt, but a duo of Cam Weston and Jalen Jordan can replicate that in McDevitt’s spead and attack system that produced ShotQuality’s 2nd highest rim and 3 rate in league play. Weston is a penetrating rim runner on the ball with outstanding athleticism for his position, while a presumably healthy Jordan is one of the league’s best shooters. High scoring combo guard Jestin Porter (JUCO import) should see immediate run as well. The 3/4 situation (highlighted by Lenard) is comprised of long, athletic interchangeable parts like Eli Lawrence, Justin Bufford, Tyler Millin, and Elias King. The first 3 provide legit shooting, while King surprised offensively in MTSU’s CBI run. The 5 spot follows the same interchangeability and athleticism motif with DeAndre Dishman a skilled offensive threat as a small ball center capable of getting out on the perimeter on both ends. Chris Fussell has some offensive upside with his skill set/height combo, while the return of Jared Coleman-Jones to health gives McDevitt a more traditional back to the basket option.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite being a largely 4 to 5 out squad, spacing and shot making were issues for MTSU, and Weston on the ball nearly full time isn’t the same shooter as Jefferson or Sims (although Jordan’s return helps there tremendously, assuming he’s healthy). The structure of McDevitt’s roster also prevents rebounding from being a strong suit, and that’s unlikely to change.

6. LOUISIANA TECH

WHAT I LIKE: New era for the Dunkin’ Dawgs, as both Eric Konkol and Junior Lofton exit Ruston. Konkol brought a high floor to LA Tech during his 7 seasons, but former associate head coach Talvin Hester should be a more than capable hire. Hester spent 3 years on Konkol’s staff, but has worked with Kelvin Sampson and Mark Adams at Texas Tech last year- his coaching pedigree is quite impressive. Replacing Lofton is far more difficult, given he morphed into one of the best bigs in league history. This year’s Dawgs will be far more perimeter oriented with the return of PG Cobe Williams (an athletic freak and one of the toughest players in the league despite his stature), Keaston Willis (a legit three level scorer who was relegated to mostly spot shooting last year), Kaleb Stewart (a breakout candidate as a high scoring combo guard), and an incredibly deep and athletic wing corps highlighted by the return of Isaiah Crawford. Crawford’s early knee injury was a devastating blow for LA Tech and capped their ceiling, but he’ll be the focal point of what should be one of the best defenses in the league given Hester’s pedigree and the strengths of this roster. Crawford can switch 1-4, and the athleticism of LaDamien Bradford and Terran Williams should all LA Tech to rival UNT in terms of the best no middle scheme in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Replacing Lofton’s offensive prowess on the block just isn’t going to happen, and I’m sure Hester has already accepted that. What’s somewhat overlooked in Lofton’s departure is his defense, where he allowed just .68 PPP as a post defender (per Synergy), en route to LA Tech enjoying the league’s best 2PT% D. Of course Lofton’s league leading defensive rebounding rate and 5th highest offensive rebounding rate are gone as well. Kenny Hunter and Pierre Geneste are long armed rim protectors, but will provide little offensively. David Green is the opposite as a finesse 4, so that leaves a lot on Radford transfer Dravon Mangum’s plate. Mangum’s a skilled offensive threat (who started his career in the CUSA at Charlotte), but has never been known as a blocks and boards big. Hester is ultimately going to have to play a lot of offense-defense sub patterns with this unit.

7. RICE

WHAT I LIKE: The offense. Scott Pera’s modified Princeton motion produced the most efficient halfcourt offense in the league, and point-center fulcrum Max Fiedler returns to man the middle, as does PG Travis Evee, one of the league’s best shooters, and most importantly a healthy Quincy Olivari is back. Olivari led CUSA in shot rate two seasons ago, and rebounds his position absurdly well in Pera’s small ball look. Speaking of small ball, Pera added some much needed strength to the frontcourt with Kansas State 4 Seryee Lewis, who comes in off his own knee injury issues.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. This unit is essentially the polar opposite of the highly skilled offense, where the finesse on that end is a burden on this end. The Owls were 12th in halfcourt defensive efficiency in CUSA play, and were particularly smacked in PNR where Fiedler is a liability and at the rim. Not coincidentally, rebounding was a weakness for the Owls as well. This issues seems endemic to the program under Pera, and the personnel doesn’t suggest any significant progress to be made regarding these concerns.

8. UTEP

WHAT I LIKE: Joe Golding has to replace a LOT of scoring from his first season in El Paso, but Evansville’s Shamar Givance was a massive portal addition. Givance immediately becomes one of the best PGs in the league, and his dip in shooting/efficiency can be forgiven after playing on one of the worst teams in the country. Givance finished no worse than 3rd in assist rate in all 4 of his Missouri Valley seasons, and if you’re going to be a Golding PG, you have to defend on the ball like a bulldog, which Givance brings. Givance draws an absurd amount of contact and is a typically capable perimeter shooter. Like Givance, the rest of Golding’s backcourt rotation is comprised of portal additions. Tae Hardy has shown flashes of elite scoring at previous stops (including Southern Miss most recently), and like Givance, is a ballhawk defensively- a must in Golding’s extreme perimeter denial defense that pushes every ball screen to the side and produced the 2nd highest TO rate in the league. Rio McKinney is more legend than reality at this point, but the potential, ball handling, and leaping ability are always intriguing at the PG spot. Malik Zachery brings a lot of baggage with him after a year in the JUCO ranks, but he’s arguably the best pure PG on the roster- so Golding has a significant amount of depth and capability on the ball, similar to his last season at Abilene Christian. Golding’s wing corps is steeped in athleticism, and has the potential to be a real problem in CUSA play. Jamari Sibley is arguably the most inherently talented player in the entire league, while Otis Frazier and Calvin Solomon come in from George Mason and SFA. Solomon is a guy Golding had coveted since he was a Southland foe, and a new assistant brought him to El Paso. Solomon will have an immediate impact as a guy who can defend 1-4, handle the ball, score at the rim, and hit jump shots. He’s a less talented but fully realized Sibley. This backcourt/wing group can be one of the best in the league if you a few guys start approaching their ceiling (McKinney, Zachery, Frazier, Sibley) and established presences like Givance, Hardy, and Solomon mesh.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Golding’s denial defense produced the 2nd highest TO rate, denied PNR, and practically erased the 3PT line, it was shredded on the back end to the tune of 1.12 PPP at the highest rim rate allowed in the league (per ShotQuality). Additionally, the Miners were dead last in rebounding rate on both ends of the court. Those severe frontcourt deficiencies weren’t really addressed by Golding in the offseason. Former Loyola Marymount tweener Jonathan Dos Anos isn’t a blocks and boards guy by any stretch, and mountainous Derick Hamilton is going to have trouble staying on the floor at this level. Kevin Kalu recorded a single block last season and it wasn’t in a D1 game. Ze’Rik Onyema is Golding’s best bet in the frontcourt on both ends, but he was whistled for nearly 10 fouls per 40 minutes last year. One more note about the offense, Givance is an elite ball screen creator, especially going downhill in middle, which isn’t really a part of the Golding playbook offensively. There are some stylistic concerns with this roster composition, and I can see teamwide coherency being an issue on the offensive end.

9. FIU

WHAT I LIKE: The portal/freshman class. Jeremy Ballard’s offense produced the 4th highest rim and 3 rate in the entire country, using a spread PNR attack (highest PNR rate in the league) to almost exclusively attack the rim or shoot the 3 off a kick out (highest catch and shoot rate in CUSA, per ShotQuality). Replacing Tevin Brewer and his league leading assist rate is the first order of business, and it’s not immediately clear if there’s going to be an alpha ballhandler, as a committee seems more appropriate at this stage. Denver Jones can certainly play the point, but it’s not preferred. His ball screen efficiency was below average last year, and it would limit his productivity as arguably the league’s most efficient slasher (6th highest FT rate while hitting 91% from the stripe, per KenPom). Javaunte Hawkins is a possibility here as well, but like Jones, his shooting came more off the ball. Fortunately Ballard mined the Putnam Academy in Connecticut again and brought in Arturo Dean to potentially wrest PG duties from day 1. Dean is very much in the Brewer mold as a skittering lightning bolt on the ball, and his Putnam teammate Day Day Gittens is also an option at the point as well. Ballard plucked two likely starters from the America East, with Hartford’s Austin Williams a potentially bigger PG option as a legit 3 level scorer, which would in turn form a deadly slashing duo with Jones. New Hampshire’s Nick Guadarrama will thrive in Ballard’s PNR heavy offense as a frequent pick and pop recipient as a small ball 4 (small in height relatively at 6’5, but he’s been lovingly known as “Thicc Nick” on this site). Guadarrama can handle the ball despite his wide frame, and is a perfect fit in this offense with his ability to score at the rim and behind the arc. John Williams, a high scoring D2 wing, and 6’6 Jayden Brewer out of Ben Davis round out an impressive and deep backcourt/wing portal/frosh class for Ballard.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Ballard’s commitment to the analytical rim and 3 dream is impressive, it wasn’t efficient last year. FIU was 12th in rim efficiency in CUSA play and shot a middling 34% from 3, and those numbers were with Brewer spearheading the offense. Defensively, FIU produced a middling TO rate despite pressing at the 3rd highest rate in the league, and they couldn’t defend off the ball, getting gashed off screens and cuts. The Panthers were surprisingly porous at the rim as well despite having all world shot blocker Seth Pinkney, who eventually fell out of the rotation down the stretch. Pinkney does return, but Ballard added a high motor floor runner in quick twitch 7 footer Darryon Prescott. There’s a lot of potential on this roster, but a lot of moving parts as well.

10. CHARLOTTE

WHAT I LIKE: Some progress made last year for the Niners in year 4 of the Ron Sanchez, but it seems like that was the season they should have had two years ago, and last season should have been better. Now Jahmir Young is gone, but Sanchez has a lot of long wing shooters returning for his mover-blocker system that produced 1.25 PPP off the highest cut rate in the league (4th highest in the country per ShotQuality), which led to the league’s most efficient 2PT offense. The return of a healthy Brice Williams as 6’7 floor stretching wing is key, as Young’s offensive production will be sorely missed. The new backcourt of Tarleton St PG Montre Gipson and Missouri St transfer Lu’Cye Patterson is serviceable, particularly the former, but not on nearly the same level as Young. Gipson can shoot it a little and is more than steady on the ball on both ends, while Patterson is a decent enough rim runner. Robert Braswell (3 and D), Musa Jallow (lock down defender if ever healthy) and Jackson Threadgill (spot shooter) return to the wing as well to form an upper half unit league wise. The frontcourt is perhaps the strength of the team with Aly Khalifa reprising his role as point-center (although he suffered an injury during the Puerto Rico trip, the extent of which has yet to be determined, something to keep an eye on), and the additions of USC Upstate’s Josh Aldrich and Virginia’s Igor Milicic. Aldrich can step out and shot it and is a decent enough defender, while Milicic was recruited to UVA, so that means he’s a perfect fit for Sanchez, and similar to Khalifa in his style of play.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The pack line D has been effective in precisely one season of the Sanchez era, and it was abandoned for stretches last season (but Khalifa can’t defend in ball screens regardless, and neither will Milicic). Essentially Charlotte wants to copy the Virginia or even North Texas model in their own league, but they just don’t get the stops, which of course negates a clock control offense. It should be noted ShotQuality regression data suggests Charlotte was a significantly unlucky 3PT% defense, as opponents hit 38% in league play despite the Niners allowing the lowest open 3 rate in the league. Rebounding will likely continue to be an issue, as will removing Young from the offense (and this offense was already close to last in shot making per SQ, despite having the league’s best shot selection). If Khalifa’s injury is significant, this is potentially a last place team.

11. UTSA

WHAT I LIKE: Well, things can’t get much worse from a personnel and off court standpoint for Steve Henson’s squad, so he has to feel like rock bottom was more or less reached last year, and a roster reset was much needed. Atypically for Henson teams, the frontcourt should actually be a strength for the Runners this year, with Jacob Germany returning and Kansas St transfer Carlton Linguard added from the portal. Linguard is potential pick and pop 7 footer in one of the league’s more prolific PNR offenses, so it will be interesting to see if Henson has the audacity to try to play his twin towers together. Accordingly, UTSA should once again be the best defensive rebounding team in the league, where Germany was one of the best two way rebounders.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Massive question marks dot the rest of the roster, and that’s not a good sign for the league’s most inefficient offense to make significant strides out of the cellar. The backcourt will be heavily reliant on a pair of JUCO combo guards in Japhet Medor and John Buggs to supplement Erik Czumbel, the likely incumbent PG. There’s a lot of length and versatility on the wing between Aleu Aleu, Isaiah Addo-Ankrah, and even potentially Lachlan Bofinger, but there’s almost no proven production. Last year was UTSA’s slowest tempo since Henson’s first season, and for good reason, this team’s personnel and scoring issues didn’t warrant more possessions like Henson prefers. I would assume the Runners slow it down even more with Germany and Linguard the focal points of the offense.

BIG WEST 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. UCSB

WHAT I LIKE: The Gauchos should have the most efficient offense in the league again (a sterling 1.05 PPP in Big West play), as Joe Pasternack plugs in dominant post Andre Kelly (1.12 PPP in the post, 94th percentile per Synergy) into Amadou Sow’s spot on the block. UCSB topped the league in ShotQuality’s shot making and shot selection metrics, and that should continue with the backcourt quartet of Ajay Mitchell, Ajare Sanni, Josh Pierre-Louis, and Calvin Wishart all returning. Mitchell is a burgeoning Big West superstar on the ball, dictating the Pasternack’s constantly off ball screening offense just like JaQuori McLaughlin. If Mitchell’s jump shot continues to develop, watch out. Sanni is instant offense working downhill, but the shot selection is often dicey. JPL is the defensive ace, and Wishart is a veteran presence who can run the offense when need be. Factor in the return of the league’s best floor stretcher Miles Norris and a hopefully healthy Zach Harvey on the wing as a deadly shooter, and UCSB’s offense can be one of the best in the entirety of midmajordom.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense wasn’t on the same level as the offense, and the Gauchos’ drop scheme was routinely exploited in PNR, an area Kelly won’t help with. Koat Keat Tong brings insane athleticism to the frontcourt, but he’s incredibly raw offensively, which will limit his usage by Pasternack.

2. LONG BEACH STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Dan Monson certainly quieted the growing critics after 4 straight losing BW seasons, with the Beach winning the league’s regular season and nearly the tournament with a narrow loss to CSUF in one of the most thrilling conference title games of March. Surprisingly it was the Beach’s defense that led way, as the Niners topped the Big West defensive efficiency ratings for the first time since the 2014-15 season, allowing a paltry .93 PPP. The Beach didn’t necessarily do anything differently defensively, as they were still 2nd in both zone and press rates, using Monson’s typically shifting 1-3-1. The difference was personnel, with a pair of athletic 6’5 freshmen wrecking balls in Jadon Jones at the top and Aboubacar Traore at the rim and beyond. Jones was 2nd in steal rate and Traore 2nd in block rate, fueling the highest turnover and subsequent transition rate in the league (2nd highest transition rate nationally). Those two will once again be at the heart of a defense that should be the leanest and most athletic in the league. Monson will really be able to unleash Traore on the defensive end with the addition of more size, most notably Lassina Traore from SLU (no relation to Aboubacar), a legit rim protector with switchable size. JUCO imports Chayce Polynice and Amari Stroud should factor into the frontcourt rotation as well, and all bring plus athleticism to what should be the most switchable defense in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: LBSU’s offense has to replace the production of Colin Slater, a daunting task when you look the on/off efficiency splits (1.02 PPP with Slater on the floor, .87 PPP with him off, per hooplens). LBSU was a middle of the pack offense with Slater (6th in BW offensive efficiency rating), and losing their extremely low turnover, dribble drive PG with an outstanding jump shot is troubling. Joel Murray returns and is a very similar player, and he’ll be joined by well traveled Marcus Tsohonis and JUCO Tone Hunter, so it’s not all doom and gloom for the Beach’s backcourt. Again, we circle back to the Jones/Traore duo here, as the former had an incredibly efficient freshman year as a 3 and D wing on steroids, while Traore basically didn’t miss at the rim, shooting 70% while taking 83% of his shots there (per hoop-math). I’ve listed the offense as a “don’t like”, but that’s definitely misleading, as Murray/Tsohonis can certainly replace Slater’s numbers, just a matter of how efficiently. There’s also the matter of LBSU’s shooting luck offensively, as they were the most efficient catch and shoot and off the dribble 3PT offense in the league despite producing open 3s at a bottom tier rate, as well as a bottom tier shot selection rating (all per ShotQuality). That’s actually a minor detail given LBSU’s extreme rim and contact reliance (they also had the 22nd highest midrange rate nationally), but it does suggest a possible dip in 3PT shooting from guys like Jones and Murray.

3. HAWAII

WHAT I LIKE: If healthy, Hawaii returns the most scoring in the league, with arguably the league’s best inside out duo of Bernardo da Silva and Noel Coleman. da Silva is a hyper efficient around the rim, while Coleman is lethal on the dribble with a plus jump shot to keep defenses honest. Both were among the perpetually wounded Bows last year, and Coleman’s season ending injury capped what could have been a Big West title run in Henderson. Keeping Coleman off the ball will be a talented if mercurial duo of JoVon McClanahan and Justus Jackson. McClanahan is an elite playmaker at times, and a total head scratcher at others. Jackson meanwhile didn’t get quite the run many expected as a frosh, but has reportedly been the most impressive Bow for two straight offseason summers. There are three significant wildcards in the backcourt/wing for the Bows: the health of Samuta Avea, Juan Munoz, and what Wazzu transfer Ryan Rapp brings to the table. Avea is reportedly ready is an offensive force on the wing if he can stay healthy (huge if), while Munoz is still working his way back. If he’s ever healthy after two reconstructive knee surgeries, Munoz is an instant solution to Hawaii’s PG situation. Rapp meanwhile brings an incredibly intriguing skill set to the table as a 6’5 playmaker with elite court vision. Hawaii’s league leading 36% 3PT shooting at the highest rate in the BW should continue as well with the return of floor stretcher Kamaka Hepa. The Bows have all the weapons to battle UCSB as the best offensive team in the league as it is, but if their health maintains/improves, they could easily be the team to beat.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Hawaii couldn’t defend efficiently vs PNR, and they were absolutely ball screened to death through the course of the Big West season, and there’s no real reason to think that doesn’t continue this year, as the additions to the roster aren’t defensive minded and Ganot isn’t likely to change up his aggressive PNR hedging that eliminates the 3PT line at a top 10 rate nationally every year. Mor Seck is an intriguing prospect at 7’1, but he’s a major project and certainly isn’t going to shore up any issues in Hawaii’s PNR coverage- the opposite in fact.

4. UC IRVINE

WHAT I LIKE: The addition of Pierre Crockrell from Pacific. The Eaters desperately needed a true PG (9th highest TO rate in the league), and Crockrell was top 3 in WCC assist rate all 3 seasons he was there, including leading the league last year (and never had a turnover rate eclipse the high teens).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Russell Turner’s defense is ALWAYS predicated on an elite defensive big protecting the rim at all costs. Prior to last year, UCI led the Big West in 2PT% D ten straight seasons (per KenPom), and were often top 5 nationally in that regard. Last year the 2PT% D dipped to 6th in the BW, and that was with Austin Johnson’s league leading block rate, which has migrated to NC A&T. The bigs on this year’s roster are questionable in terms of reviving the good ol’ days for Eater D. Chazz Hutchinson (a rare JUCO import for Turner and Chandler’s brother) is extremely athletic and quick off the floor, and is the most likely option, as the big German Bent Leuchten will get PNR’d to death. Dean Keeler meanwhile accumulated 17 fouls compared to 3 total blocks in limited run last season. To compound the comparatively lackluster interior defense last year, the Eaters were EXTREMELY lucky in terms of 3PT shooting from their opponents. Per ShotQuality, UCI allowed the highest open 3 rate in the league (350th nationally), but opponents hit a stunningly low 24%, with SQ expecting them to hit 35% based on quality of shots taken. In fact no team in the country was as lucky as the Eaters in terms of defensive 3PT%. Any amount of course correction in that regard combined with what figures to be another down 2PT% D for the Turner era likely creates a decent dip in their overall defensive efficiency margin, which was still good for 2nd in the league because of that crazy luck in 3PT% D. Offensively, the addition of Crockrell can solve a lot of problems simply by not turning it over on nearly a quarter of your possessions, but the loss of Collin Welp is obviously huge. Welp took every shot, drew every foul, and grabbed every rebound. There’s a lot riding on the capable backcourt troika of Dawson Baker, DJ Davis, and Justin Hohn, because frontcourt buckets are going to be scarce.

5. UC RIVERSIDE

WHAT I LIKE: Mike Magpayo is a defensive mastermind first and foremost, and the D was fine last year, but the Highlander offense actually buoyed the season thanks to arguably the league’s best PNR guard Zyon Pullian. Pullian’s ball screen wizardry established the Highlanders as the BW’s most efficient PNR offense, with the 6’4 PG doing absolutely everything on the floor except shoot the 3. Pullian’s an exceptional finisher at the rim and rebounds his position better than anyone in the conference, which helped lead UCR to the league’s best 2PT% O and best DREB%. Magpayo’s D held opponents well under 1 PPP again, using his signature hard hedge to completely eliminate the 3PT line (lowest 3PTA rate allowed in the league), while also walling off the rim (9th lowest rim rate nationally), leaving only the midrange, where UCR allowed the 2nd highest attempt rate- exactly what Magpayo wants.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: UCR shot the 3 at the 2nd highest rate in the league, but hit just 32%, and I don’t see a major improvement on that front unless floor stretching Montana transfer Kyle Owens and Wofford’s Luke Turner find their stroke (but neither defend at a typical Magpayo level), and they’re both redundancies of Wil Tattersall, the league’s best shooter last year. The loss of 3 and D wing Dom Pickett is substantial as well, as Flynn Cameron isn’t quite the same shooter. Rim protection isn’t as important in Magpayo’s scheme (dead last in block rate last year), as he prefers his bigs play up to deny penetration rather than drop to the rim, but Jhaylon Martinez has to find a way to stay on the floor after a massively disappointing first season in the Inland Empire. Martinez logged an obscene foul rate, and posted a meager 69 ORtg, but there’s zero returning production behind him at the 5.

6. UC DAVIS

WHAT I LIKE: Finally a return to normalcy for Jim Les’ program, which has only played 21 Big West games the past 2 seasons combined. This will be a typical Les team- fast and swarming defensively with some suspect offense. Quickly replacing Ezra Manjon is a seemingly impossible task for a program at UCD’s level, but Les hit a potential portal homer with Ty Johnson coming in from Loyola Chicago. Johnson is THE prototypical Les guard- defensive minded PG that Les can develop offensively (and the former PG has an outstanding track record in that regard). Robby Beasley comes in from Montana to give Les two of the best 3 and D wings in the league, perfect for his swarming small ball lineup. Kane Milling also returns to his role as one of the most efficient spot shooters in the league. The frontcourt is centered around sturdy rim protector and putback machine Christian Anigwe, who also developed into the league’s most efficient post scorer, if criminally underused on that end. Another Nevada transfer in DeAndre Henry should slide into the 4, but while it’s unclear what kind of offensive production can be expected from him, he’s the ideal Les 4 man.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Manjon’s offensive production wasn’t always delivered in the most efficient manner last year, but replacing his sheer shot and usage volume is going to be an early issue for the Aggies, as this team lacks a clear go to on that end. I’m confident Les will develop Johnson’s O, but that won’t happen immediately, and it’s unlikely Les restructures his offensive gestalt to work through Anigwe in that interim. There will be more than a few “Academy of Art” type offensive performances from this team early, but they could round into a capable unit come BW tournament time.

7. CSUF

WHAT I LIKE: The defending champs lose a lot of offensive production, most notably EJ Anosike, but there’s a silver lining here, as the on/off efficiency splits suggest the offense working through scoring combo guard Jalen Harris could actually be more efficient (albeit in a limited sample). Harris is hard nosed rim attacker, drawing contact at the highest rate in the entire league, but he’ll need someone to help keep him off the ball full time, whether that be Latrell Wrightsell or incoming JUCO Daeshawn Eaton remains to be seen. Max Jones is an intriguing addition to the backcourt as a 6’5 slasher who scored in bunches at the D2 level, and could help Green maintain his efficiency should Dedrique Taylor go that route (Taylor is a very old school offensive mind, and rim running is coveted in his program, so I’m sure Jones will have starter minutes ASAP). Harris and Jones will have to almost completely carry the offense, as Vincent Lee is an efficient enough scorer around the rim, but that was while playing opposite Anosike.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the offensive on/off splits counterintuitively show that CSUF could be more efficient without Anosike, the defensive splits paint a different story. Tory San Antonio is a plus defender and glue guy on the perimeter, as is Wrightsell, but Anosike’s switchability as a big was a linchpin to the defense. Fairleigh Dickinson transfer John Square was something of the Anosike-lite of the NEC last year as an excellent offensive rebounder and versatile defender, so a lot will be asked of him by Taylor immediately. Square (and to some extent Garrison Wade out of Dartmouth) is sort of the x-factor in terms of CSUF contending for a title again given the importance Taylor puts on that role.

8. UC SAN DIEGO

WHAT I LIKE: The Tritons’ league games still are being played as “non-conference” games (eye roll), but UCSD notched 7 Big West wins last year, marking tangible upward movement for the program in their second D1 season. Eric Olen’s constantly screening spread offense is perhaps the most inventive in a league filled with old school coaches like John Smith, Trent Johnson, Rod Barnes, Dedrique Taylor, and even Russell Turner. The Tritons had the league’s highest PNR rate, led the league in efficiency off screens, and shot the three at the highest volume in the league, finishing second in efficiency off catch and shoots and the dribble (per ShotQuality). Only one half of the Killer Jakes on the wing returns (Jake Kosakowski), but Bryce Pope will be happy to usurp that volume behind the arc. Vuk Vulikic seemed like a perfect marriage in this system with his size and ball skill combo, but nagging injuries plagued him last year- I expect a big season this year. The real gem in Olen’s offense will be Francis Nwaokorie, who has the unenviable task of filling Toni Rocak’s point-center role and nearly off the charts usage and shot volume. Nwaokorie is a more athletic/mobile version of Rocak with a better jump shot and should be poised for an absolutely monster season in this offensive system. Nwaokorie ceiling with more volume gives UCSD one of the highest team wide offensive ceilings in the league, and could singlehandedly make the Tritons a top half team. UCSD has the potential to be the best offensive team in the league if J’Raan Brooks is fully healthy. The former high profile Pac12 recruit would be a menace in this offense as an athletic 6’9 4 with ball skills, pairing with Nwaokorie to form the most versatile frontcourt tandem in the league- virtually unguardable for half the “ground and pound” frontcourts in the Big West.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense struggled mightily, especially in the frontcourt, where they’re more finesse than brutish strength like say a UC Irvine. Speaking of the Eaters, Olen poached one of Russell Turner’s stable of centers in Emmanuel Tshimanga in an attempt to shore up that porous rim defense that allowed 1.25 PPP, the highest in the league. It’s certainly a valiant attempt to shore up the blocks and boards by Olen, but Tshimanga doesn’t have the offensive skill set to be a two way player in this system. My other concern is the development of Jace Roquemore at the point. The highs are dizzying but the lows are just as extreme, and you’d like to see the turnovers level out in his third season in the system. The good news is his on ball defense appeared to improve substantially.

9. CAL POLY

WHAT I LIKE: Little to no progress made in year 3 of the John Smith era at Poly, but the Mustangs return virtually everybody and added two key portal additions that should result in some tangible upward trajectory for the program. Poly’s offense is centered around Alimamy Koroma, the most prolific post in the league. Koroma’s efficiency noticeably dipped, as defenses were able to double him with impunity, as there was little fear of an effective pass out with his TO rate skyrocketing, and it didn’t help that Poly had almost zero perimeter shooting to bail him out. Wing Chance Hunter continues his California tour, landing back in the Big West after leaving LBSU for Cal Baptist. Hunter is as streaky of a shooter as there is in the league, but he’s the only offensive scoring punch added to what was one of the league’s worst shooting teams (dead last in ShotQuality’s “shot making” metric). The Poly defense, predicated heavily on the no middle concept, could actually be one of the league’s best with the addition of former 4 star 7’1 Bryan Penn-Johnson. Smith apparently intends to play Koroma and BPJ together, which could be absolutely smothering, as both are actually quite switchable and capable of moving out of the paint when needed. This was already the league’s best 2PT% D and held BWC opponents to 1 PPP at the rim, the lowest mark in the league- you’re absolutely going to have to beat this team by bombing away from the perimeter, and when the two best teams are post reliant UCSB and rim running LBSU, that can make Poly something of a nightly tough out.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: As stingy as the defense might be, the offense should make other defenses look just as stingy. Cam Pierce is a capable playmaker and penetrator on the ball, leading the BWC in assist rate and making nearly 90% of his FTs, but the TO ran was nearly as high, and there’s zero jump shot to speak of. Trevon Taylor and Kobe Sanders have great length on the wing, but both are going to need to start hitting jump shots consistently if this team has any chance of competing in the top half of the league. Poly’s spacing was already abysmal, and it’s hard to believe it can get worse, but that seems to be the case if Koroma and BPJ are sharing the floor as Smith intends.

10. CSUN

WHAT I LIKE: In 18 seasons of KenPom data, Trent Johnson coached teams have finished in the 300s in 3PTA rate in 10 seasons, and last year was no exception with the Matadors finishing 342nd in attempt rate while placing an incredible 4 players in the top 10 in Big West post rate, with Miles Brookins, Onyi Eyisi, and Fidelis Okereke taking the 1, 2, and 4 positions respectively. Eyisi and Okereke both return, so CSUN’s offensive structure isn’t going to change- they’ll work inside out with more fervor and frequency than few other teams in the entire country. While Okereke has power forward build, his lack of shooting makes it difficult to play him simultaneously with Eyisi or well traveled import Dearon Tucker, so he’ll likely come off the bench in a smaller lineup at the 5 where his athleticism and outstanding versatile defense can be effective. After losing Darius Brown early last year, the CSUN PG situation really took a nosedive, but I think Johnson sufficiently addressed that with the addition of Dionte Bostick (Murray State) and Ethan Igbanugo (North Dakota). The former is more of a traditional distributor point while the latter brings some much need shooting and spacing to the on ball situation. The Bostick/Igbanugo platoon will keep Atin Wright off the ball, a huge bonus as he’s one of the league’s best 3 level scorers and should see a bump in efficiency if those two points can steady the offense. De’Sean Allen-Eakins, also out of North Dakota (and most recently New Orleans), is perhaps Johnson’s most intriguing addition as an athletically gifted wing who was one of the best pound for pound players in the Summit League 3 seasons ago. Unfortunately a series of injuries has derailed his career, but his low risk high ceiling addition to this roster at the 3.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: With the lone exception of finishing at the rim, there wasn’t an advanced offensive metric where CSUN finished in the top half of the league. Perhaps with the backcourt additions and more coaching continuity after the bizarre and tumultuous start to the Johnson era, the Dors find some more balance, but there’s a long way to go. Despite Johnson hanging his coaching hat on the defensive end, the Dors were just as bad on that end. What was particularly troubling was finishing second to last in both rim and post defensive efficiency given the lineup and style of play deployed by Johnson. Naturally the Dors were the least efficient PNR defense in the league, given their lack of versatility- ideally Allen-Eakins helps to some extent in that regard. CSUN will playing with a heavy heart after the offseason passing of teammate Nick Herrmann, who finally succumbed to cancer.

11. CSUB

WHAT I LIKE: It typically matters very little who returns for any given CSUB season under Rod Barnes, as the Runners are always going to throw waves of pressure at you with one of the deepest benches in the game, but the return of Kaleb Higgins at the point provides some offensive stability, and it’s almost always a brutal slog on that end for Barnes’ squads. Higgins paired a plus assist rate with a microscopic TO rate, a must given how few possessions the Runners typically have in a game. The biggest addition to the roster is Naseem Gaskin, a JUCO import who can play 1-3 and defends intensely, a necessity under Barnes. Creighton transfer Modestas Kancieris is an intriguing addition, as his refined Euro skill set breaks the mold of typical Barnes bigs, and suggests a more coherent offensive structure. CSUB’s pressure and defensive intensity are always a bear to prep and play against, and that certainly won’t change this year.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Sweet Jesus the offense. ShotQuality metrics have CSUB last or dead last in the Big West in spacing, shot selection, and shot making, and CSUB’s best offense is typically grabbing the miss off a bricked 2PT jump shot (2nd highest midrange rate in the country). Outside of Kancieries and maybe JUCO import Marvin McGhee, there’s little offensive punch added to Higgins and Cameron Smith.

BIG SOUTH 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. LONGWOOD

WHAT I LIKE: After nearly pulling of an undefeated Big South season that culminated in a massacre of Winthrop in the Big South tourney final, the Lancers return nearly everyone…except outstanding PG Justin Hill [side note: Longwood hasn’t released their official roster yet, and Bart Torvik doesn’t list Isaiah Wilkins and Zac Watson as returning, but I’m 99% sure they are, so I will assume they’re still Lancers for the sake of this preview]. With Wilkins and Wade back off the ball (and the former can play on the ball as well) and floor stretcher Nate Lliteras, Longwood’s deadly shooting isn’t going anywhere (8th nationally in 3PT% last year). While Hill was electric on the ball last year, much credit has to be given to Griff Aldrich’s playbook, which created catch and shoots at a top 100 rate nationally, and the Lancers knocked them down with a top 20 efficiency, per ShotQuality. Aldrich will replace Hill on the ball with Southern Miss transfer Walyn Napper, who churned out the 2nd best assist rate in CUSA despite playing on a team that couldn’t hit the ocean. Pair Napper with Wilkins, Wade, and Lliteras, and he’s going to lead the Big South in assist rate. The Lancers’ frontcourt remains mostly intact with the return of Watson and Leslie Nkereuwem (and Wilkins, who was the best rebounder on the team), which means Longwood likely remains the Big South’s best rebounding team on both ends. Longwood’s on ball defense was already a plus between Wade and Wilkins, but UT Arlington transfer Nic Elame immediately becomes the best on ball defender on the team, and possibly the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the Lancers are elite on the ball defensively, they struggled defending actions off the ball, allowing a ghastly 1.4 PPP off actions ending in a cut, per ShotQuality. Despite playing a fairly compact, sagging defense, they also struggled at the rim, allowing the 9th highest PPP at the rim (1.2 PPP) in league play, with Nkereuwem being a rangy, roving defender more than a rim protector and Watson undersized vertically in the post.

2. WINTHROP

WHAT I LIKE: The traditional Big South powerhouse went 14-2 in Mark Prosser’s first season in Rock Hill, but ran into the Longwood buzzsaw. Similar to the Lancers, Winthrop will have to replace a major piece in block bully DJ Burns, but the Eagles should be more versatile and interchangeable in his wake- a more preferable style for Prosser’s uptempo 3PT barrage. Although the Eagles return Prosser favorite and inside out threat Corey Hightower, this is a very backcourt driven group with some intriguing portal additions in Howard Fleming (Illinois St), Kasen Harrison (Lamar), and Isaiah Wilson (Richmond). Fleming could be a league stealer with his size on the ball on both ends, and he and Wilson could make Winthrop the best perimeter defense in the league. Harrison meanwhile is an elite rim runner at the 2 when healthy. Micheal Anumba returns as an elite slasher (highest FT rate in the league) with a 40% 3PT mark, as does another Prosser mainstay Sin’Cere McMahon, giving Winthrop a deep and versatile backcourt. I mentioned Winthrop’s on ball defense being elite this year, but Chase Claxton and Kelton Talford’s range and athleticism in the frontcourt (along with healthy versions of Cam Whiteside and Toneari Lane on the wing) will be the reason the Eagles could challenge Gardner-Webb as the best defensive team in the league, with Claxton arguably the best pound for pound defensive player in the Big South. Consider Winthrop to be a co-favorite with Longwood as Big South preseason frontrunners.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While I mentioned why Winthrop’s offense is likely fine without DJ Burns, his absence still creates a major shot vacuum (highest shot rate and 2nd highest usage in the league), and his constant double teams were a big reason Winthrop was first in ShotQuality’s spacing, shot selection, and shot making last year. Michael Moore is talented frosh and the heir apparent to Burns, but he’s not going to draw nearly the same defensive attention yet.

3. GARDNER-WEBB

WHAT I LIKE: Having the best x’s and o’s coach in the league is a boon, and GWU’s defense is on another level, allowing just .93 PPP in league play last year with Tim Craft seamlessly morphing between stingy man to man and matchup zone that totally walled off the rim thanks to elite shot blockers Kareem Reid and Ludovic Dufeal, and roving wrecking ball Anthony Selden.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: GWU lost a LOT of offensive firepower from a team that was already middle-bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. DQ Nicholas (SEMO) and Lucas Steiber (Green Bay) will lead the backcourt, with the former an efficient probing combo guard with a more than respectable jump shot. Steiber and Julien Soumaoro will likely handle ball handling duties, but both have been incredibly turnover prone in their D1 careers. The elite defense will keep Gardner-Webb in contention for a league title, but I’m not sure they have the offensive horses to shoot with Longwood and Winthrop if the bottom tier spacing and shot making continue. D2 import Caleb Robinson however has the talent to quickly change GWU’s offensive fortunes on the wing.

4. UNC ASHEVILLE

WHAT I LIKE: The frontcourt, well namely Drew Pember. Pember returns as the league’s toughest cover, a roving 6’10 center who can dribble, shoot, post (although this is rare in Mike Morrell’s offense), and draws a merciless amount of contact (5 games with double digit FT attempts last year). Morrell beefed up the frontcourt with the addition of Amadou Sylla, who provides more of a brick wall presence at the rim while also logging the best OREB rate in the OVC last year. Sylla will allow Pember to really roam free at the 4 in big lineups and shore up the back end of a defense that’s entirely predicated on running offenses completely off the 3PT line and wreaking havoc with their up the line pressure (highest press rate in the league). While the press resulted in just the 6th highest TO rate in the league, the Bulldogs were 2nd in defensive efficiency margin in league play. Morrell has a deep if somewhat still undefined backcourt/wing corps. On ball options are plentiful between Trent Stephney, Hofstra transfer Caleb Burgess, and well traveled Alex Caldwell in the wake of massive volume point forward LJ Thorpe. UNCA’s 3PT shooting shouldn’t be an issue either with The Citadel marksman Fletcher Abee eligible and the return of the lethal Tajion Jones on the wing, who forms a nice yin/yang duo with slasher Jamon Battle. The Bulldogs are deep and possibly more versatile, even without Thorpe- Morrell could likely press north of 30% this year with this crew.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The rim defense on the back end of the press and hyper aggression on the 3PT line was a major issue, and if Morrell can’t play Sylla and Pember together for stretches, it will remain an issue (as will rebounding, where the Bulldogs were dead last in DREB% last year). Thorpe was a unique matchup on the ball, and while Stephney, Burgess, and Caldwell are all more traditional PG options, they’re far less dynamic offensively.

5. RADFORD

WHAT I LIKE: The assembled talent and versatility put together by Darris Nichols. After losing a few key players relatively late in the portal season, I openly questioned the state of the program, but Nichols was busy landing Pitt transfer Onyebuchi Ezeakudo from Pitt and most importantly Bryan Antoine from Villanova. If Antoine is fully healthy on the wing, he can completely change the complexion of Radford’s season. Antoine, Ezeakudo, Murray State transfer DaQuan Smith, and frosh PG Kenyon Giles completely revamp a terribly inefficient backcourt from last year that finished at 30% shooting from 3, dead last in attempt rate, and 10th in FT rate (spacing, shot making, and shot selection were equally miserable per ShotQuality). Josiah Jeffers is a backcourt holdover from last year, and his on-ball defense will keep him in rotation. Nichols significantly strengthened the frontcourt with Richmond transfer Sal Koureissi joining efficient if under utilized post option Shaquan Jules. D’Auntray Pierce was the real coup for Nichols, as he found a much needed shot blocker from the JUCO ranks. The Highlanders were dead last in block rate last year, but Pierce immediately and significantly alters that. Japanese high school sensation Ibu Yamazaki is arguably the most intriguing freshman in the league as a smooth shooting floor stretcher, giving Nicholls a much more diverse offensive attack this year.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Radford’s high ceiling is vaulted by Antoine staying healthy for a full season, something that has yet to happen, and the idea of down transfers finding their groove in a lower league- we’ve seen that formula fail several times over. There’s a lot to like with this roster, but consistent shooting from a team that shot 30% from 3 last year is no guarantee, and the top down offensive issues for this team were seismic.

6. CAMPBELL

WHAT I LIKE: Few teams are more predictable than Kevin McGeehan’s Camels with their Princeton motion (although the offense has been increasingly mixed with ball screen continuity) and middle of the pack defensive efficiency (although the frequency of the matchup zone has decreased). Both point-centers return in Jesus Carralero and Josh Lusane, but the wing shooters are gone. Ricky Clemons returns, but he can’t shoot (making his insane efficiency numbers even more startling), and McGeehan desperately needs the Devon Dunn of two seasons ago to show up. The difference in Dunn’s two seasons at Fairleigh Dickinson are absolutely stunning (90 ORtg in NEC play last year compared to 128 the year before).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Alabama State transfer Juan Reyna is a knock down shooter on the wing, but he can’t really defend, and UK import Elijah Walsh will have to turn heads immediately, that’s how unsettled the wing situation is in Buies Creek. McGeehan’s defense was actually pretty solid last year, especially in PNR and forcing teams to execute late in the shot clock- but the majority of those key defenders are gone now (with the exception of Clemons), and as I mentioned, Dunn, Walsh, and Reyna aren’t going to defend at the same level.

7. USC UPSTATE

WHAT I LIKE: USCUp is an extremely dangerous offensive team because of their spacing and constant off ball screening, and Jordan Gainey absolutely torched the Big South nets in his first season, becoming one of the best shooters in the entire country. Gainey’s efficiency numbers are off the charts, and that’s usually the case when you hit an absurd 54% of your league threes- it’s remarkable Dave Dickerson was able to keep him on campus this season. UTEP transfer Che Evans could be an immediate difference maker on the wing with one of the league’s highest recruiting pedigrees, forming a long, athletic 2/3 combo with defensive ace Mysta Goodloe.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The pieces around Gainey are far less certain, which puts his efficiency and ability to get quality shots into question. The heir apparent at PG in Dalvin White’s absence is Jalen Breazeale, who really struggled with turnovers and shooting his freshman season, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see former 3 star JMU recruit Andrew McConnell or Navy transfer Trae Broadnax usurp the role quickly (both McConnell and Broadnax are the wildcards in Upstate’s season trajectory). Upstate lost a lot of wing shooting around Gainey, and Dickerson will be relying heavily on Floyd Rideau to rediscover his shooting stroke from 2 seasons ago when he was one of the MEAC’s most efficient shooter (in a limited covid season), and a healthy Nick Alves could be a difference maker, as he showed major potential against Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Furman last year before injury. Upstate was throttled at the rim and in post defense last year, and West Virginia transfer Seny N’diaye will be relied upon immediately to bolster Khydarius Smith, who graded out in just the 7th percentile nationally in post defense, per Synergy. N’diaye however doesn’t bring the floor stretching offensive repertoire of departed Josh Aldrich, which will again have a major affect on Upstate’s elite spacing and shooting from last season.

8. HIGH POINT

WHAT I LIKE: It was an extremely weird season for HPU with Tubby Smith’s covid related illness and ultimate retirement, paving the way for his son to formally take over. GG Smith will have to deal with the departure of program great John Michael Wright, but often replacing an extremely high volume guard leads to better efficiency and balance. Some combo of Bryant Randleman, Minnesota transfer Laye Thiam, and Jaden House will handle on ball duties, with Thiam offering the most likely path to JMW’s offensive replication. Randleman is a bulldog on the ball defensively but lacks the offense, and House is better served as a rim slasher. Pepperpot Bryson Childress will finally have a chance to unleash, as the 5’8 shooter can make threes in bunches when given the chance. Zach Austin is one of the league’s best 3 and D guys in a small ball lineup, but it will remain to be seen how he responds to being the primary offensive option (a lot is tethered to the effectiveness of Thiam).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite deploying the ubiquitous Tubby Smith ball-line defense, HPU was still somehow routinely worked at the rim, and a mediocre defense could have been near the bottom of the league if offenses didn’t hit a lowly 27% from 3 against the Panthers. Ahmard Harvey brings some athleticism to the frontcourt out of Coastal Carolina, but the team’s best shot blocker can’t stay out of foul trouble when he’s on the floor (Emmanuel Izunabor). Alex Holt is the best offensive option in the frontcourt, but he’s a subpar rebounder and defender.

9. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN

WHAT I LIKE: It’s been a rough go of late for longtime Bucs’ coach Barclay Radebaugh, as CSU has managed just 3 total league wins the past 2 seasons. However, there’s reason for optimism as CSU reloaded with high upside guys, and this ranking could easily be my biggest miss in the Big South. The backcourt is particularly loaded with URI transfer Tres Berry, Holy Cross scoring PG RJ Johnson, and talented frosh Kheni Briggs joining proven scorer Claudell Harris and one of the country’s highest volume 3PT shooter Tahlik Chavez, who had a permanent green light on the highest 3PTA rate offense in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the backcourt looks like one of the best units in the league, it’s important to remember this team finished dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The insane 3PTA rate came tethered to 32% shooting from deep, and at the expense of efficient rim option Taje Kelly. CSU allowed a grotesque 1.23 PPP at the rim in league play, and they really struggled defending off the ball. App State transfer RJ Duhart is a legit shot blocker that allows roving defender Cheikh Faye (one of the league’s more intriguing, if maddeningly inconsistent, two way 4s) to be unleashed, providing some hope on that front.

10. PRESBYTERIAN

WHAT I LIKE: The backcourt. Quinton Ferrell pulled off a stunner when he landed 4 star PG Quadir Pettaway, who can instantly move Trevon Reddish-Rhone off the ball as he attempts to cover the scoring void left by Rayshon Harrison. Winston Hill is also one of the league’s most efficient bigs, despite lacking a strong vertical game.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The Blue Hose shot just 26% from 3 while teams hit 38% against them- that’s a recipe for last place. Ferrell loves to extend pressure (28% rate per Synergy), but it accomplishes very little, and Hill was actually a solid post defender in the halfcourt. More often than not, the press seemed to undermine PC’s collective defensive efforts. Shooting will have to level out on both ends of the floor, and I’m not sure that’s going to be the case offensively, given the fact ShotQuality saw little bad luck involved in PC’s poor shooting. However, the defense did allow the lowest open 3 rate in league play per SQ, so there’s certainly reason to believe opponents won’t be hitting upwards of 40% against them again.

BIG SKY 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. MONTANA STATE

WHAT I LIKE: The defending Big Sky champs lost a lot of veteran leadership in the backcourt, but Jubrile Belo returns as the league’s best rim protector, anchoring a defense that was 2nd in the BSC in efficiency margin, first in 2PT% D, and allowed the lowest PPP at the rim per ShotQuality. Danny Sprinkle’s wing corps is a strength as well, with ultra athletic RaeQuan Battle returning as one of the league’s most efficient slashers (with a surprisingly strong jump shot last year as well). Battle should be the focal point of the offense this season, but Tyler Patterson is another burgeoning option on the wing as the quintessential “glue guy”, while UC Davis transfer Caleb Fuller can do a little bit of everything on the wing.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt is definitely murky in the wake of Xavier Bishop, Amin Adamu, and Abdul Mohamed. Sprinkle will be asking interconference transfer Robert Ford III and CSUN import Darius Brown to step in immediately, with the latter taking on PG duties. Brown had three incredibly efficient seasons at CSUN as a combo PG, but missed almost all of last season due to injury. When healthy, he has incredible court vision, plus handle, and a more than respectable jump shot off the dribble. Ford is more of a penetrate first PG, but similar to Brown, he missed most of last season with a foot injury. MSU doesn’t shoot the 3 much, playing through Belo and Great Osobor in the post at the 13th highest rate nationally, but frosh Jed Miller is a knockdown shooter, and could find himself in the rotation early for that reason. If Brown and Ford solidify the backcourt vacuum, the Bobs are certainly very much in business as the league’s frontrunner.

2. WEBER STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Dillon Jones. Jones is a future pro and has an unguardable skillset as a 4 in the Big Sky. At 6’6 he was the league’s best defensive rebounder and can switch onto guards defensively, while adding a plus jump shot to his already polished offensive repertoire- having arguably the best two way player in the league goes a long way.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Changes abound in Ogden, from the top to the bottom, most notably Randy Rahe’s somewhat sudden retirement. However, Rahe’s departure isn’t as much of a concern for me, as Eric Duft is essentially just a younger version, having been with the team during the entirety of Rahe’s tenure. We’ve already seen Duft take more control over the team the last few seasons, as Weber’s pace has been significantly faster and there’s far less emphasis on running teams off the 3PT line on the other end. Roster wise, the changes are a little more concerning. There’s certainly talent with Junior Ballard and Keith Dinwiddie coming over from the Mountain West. Those additions (plus sharp shooter Steve Verplancken if he gets a waiver, which seems likely) alongside Zahir Porter (if he finds his form from 2 years ago) could give Weber an incredibly long and versatile backcourt (although frosh Chris Dockery will push for minutes immediately)- but there’s no obvious PG in that group. The frontcourt is bolstered by the addition of Tennessee transfer Handje Tamba, and while there’s depth there with floor stretcher Dyson Koehler and Alex Tew, there’s not a ton of upside outside of the incredibly raw Tamba.

3. MONTANA

WHAT I LIKE: The frontcourt. Travis DeCuire has assembled the league’s deepest frontcourt around Josh Bannan, the league’s most versatile and skilled offensive big. Bannan can score efficiently in the post and in pick and pop. Bannan’s defense was never on the same page as his offense, but the addition of Laolu Oke from Metro St gives the Grizz the boards and block big they really lacked last year. Colorado State transfer Dischon Thomas profiles similarly to Bannan offensively, so it will be interesting to see how DeCuire manages his bountiful frontcourt (and I didn’t even mention glue guy Mack Anderson, who was sort of the heart of the Grizz last year).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt lost PG Cam Parker (to Portland State, to rub a little salt in the wound), an excellent ball screen guard and dribble penetrator who logged a top 2 Big Sky assist rate in consecutive seasons. Brandon Whitney’s efficiency numbers in PNR are actually a touch better than Parker’s (but far less reps), and he’s the heir apparent at the point, along with NAIA combo guard import Jonathan Brown. Much like Parker, Whitney isn’t a shooter, but Brown and SUU transfer Aanen Moody very much are, and wing Lonnell Martin shot 37% from deep in BSC play, so the Grizz should have a better showing than their 9th place finish in 3PT%. That said, this group is going to struggle to defend dribble drives, just like last year. I can’t speak for Brown’s defense at this level yet, but I know Whitney and especially Moody aren’t likely to shore up the issue.

4. EASTERN WASHINGTON

WHAT I LIKE: The offense. David Riley took over and EWU didn’t miss a beat on the offensive end with a complex motion that incorporated elements of the swing offense. Steele Venters, Angelo Allegri, and even big Ethan Price can all work inside out and shoot the 3 with incredible accuracy- there’s a definite case to be made that EWU is the hardest opposing defensive prep in the league, and Jacksonville transfer Tyrese Davis fits into that interchangeable inside out shooter role as well with a little more versatility. Fresno State transfer Deon Stroud brings some much needed wing athleticism as one of the most explosive athletes in the entire country.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. While EWU’s interchangeability and positional size was an asset offensively, it was a hindrance on the defensive end, where the Eagles were routinely exploited in PNR, forcing Riley to zone at the highest rate in the league per Synergy. Louisiana transfer Ty Harper brings plus on ball defense, but he’s an odd fit offensively where the Eagles butter their bread. Stroud’s athleticism will help, but I think overall EWU will still have serious deficiencies defending the more PNR focused teams of the league. I also have some concern about PG duties, which isn’t necessarily a major issue given the structure of Riley’s offense, but Ellis Magnuson’s turnover rate and shooting haven’t improved, and I’ve already mentioned Harper being an odd fit within the system offensively.

5. NORTHERN COLORADO

WHAT I LIKE: Elite offensive team on a national level. Steve Smiley runs the most efficient offense in the Big Sky at 1.13 PPP last year thanks to a well-oiled spread PNR attack led by the best returning wing (perhaps overall player) Daylen Kountz. Kountz was a machine out of ball screens and also drove UNC to one of the best iso offenses in the country- an elite offensive wing in every regard. UNC shot nearly 40% from 3 in league play with the highest volume, torching the nets at 1.2 PPP on catch and shoots. Spacing, shot making, and PPP after timeouts were all top 10 nationally per ShotQuality. While Kountz is the unquestioned leader, Matt Johnson returns as a hyper efficient shooting PG, and Dalton Knecht should have a more consistent second season as one of the league’s best wing shooters. Additionally, Smiley added two impressive wings in Caleb Shaw and Langston Reynolds, the former of which seemed like a lock for Grand Canyon with his brother already on the roster and his uncle is Bryce Drew. Shaw’s path to playing time is cloudy at the moment, but he’s clearly the next offensive efficiency machine in Smiley’s system.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the offense was all green on every advanced stats site, the defense was bright red. UNC torched teams in PNR and iso, but were just as torched on the defensive end in those areas, and lost their only real defensive presence in Kur Jockuch. Smiley replaced him with stretchy Rice big Riley Abercrombie, who should thrive in Greeley offensively, but he’s not an upgrade defensively. Even a modicum of improvement defensively would have led me to placing UNC easily in the top 3, but as it is, this looks incredibly similar to last year’s team.

6. SACRAMENTO STATE

WHAT I LIKE: The assembled talent under new head coach David Patrick. Patrick immediately showed off his renowned recruiting chops when he re-recruited Callum McRae from UCR and brought in fellow Aussies Akol Mawein and floor stretcher Hunter Marks (assuming he’s healthy). That immediately gives Sacramento St the best and most versatile frontcourt in the league, but Patrick didn’t stop there, adding wings Gianni Hunt from Oregon State for some ballhandling and shooting, Quadry Adams from St. Bonaventure for athleticism, and Austin Patterson from Wofford for spot shooting. Adams and Hunt (as well as returnees Zach Chappell and Cam Wilbon) will be relied upon immediately to replace the do-everything production of Bryce Fowler and the shooting of William FitzPatrick.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: It’s a lot of impressive assembled talent, but how do the pieces mesh exactly? There are several “sorta” PGs and a few “sorta” shooters (besides Patterson) with some redundancies in the frontcourt. There’s a lot of preseason smoke here, but I’m not 100% sure there’s a fire yet.

7. IDAHO STATE

WHAT I LIKE: A fresh start. The Bengals were beset by nagging injuries and covid issues, including health problems for Ryan Looney, and you saw that take a major toll on the defense, which went from 2nd in the league efficiency wise two seasons ago to 9th (.96 PPP compared to 1.1 PPP allowed). Looney is integrating a lot of new faces this year, but the portal heavy Bengals should be more in sync defensively. The ringleader of the new faces will be PG Miguel Tomley, who basically fell out of rotation for a very good Santa Clara team, but he’ll give ISU a true PG, which they totally lacked last year. Brock Mackenzie is a plus shooter from the D2 ranks, and frosh Maleek Arington should carve out a role as an on ball defender immediately. Mackenzie and AJ Burgin will be relied upon heavily to improve the league’s worst 3PT% offense last year, a must in one of the best shooting leagues in the country. ISU played through the post at the highest rate in the league, and returning post presence Brayden Parker will likely be displaced by BYU transfer Kolby Lee, a better rebounder and far more efficient around the rim. UCSB transfer Jay Nagle and returnee Jared Rodriguez can both stretch the floor a bit at the 4, again much needed given ISU was at or near the bottom in spacing, shot selection, and shot making last year (per ShotQuality).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Rim and post defense appear to be incredibly problematic again, even with the addition of Lee (or one can even say because of the addition of Lee, yikes), and improving on a league worst 1.3 PPP allowed at the rim doesn’t appear likely.

8. PORTLAND STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Jase Coburn continues to embrace the portal, replacing last year’s mercenaries with a new set that includes, ball screen wizard Cam Parker (who obviously knows the league well), deadly shooters Jorell Saterfield and Keshaun Saunders on the wing, plus rebounding wing Hunter Woods, and talented but underperforming 4 Kendall Munson. Coburn didn’t press as much as his predecessor, but the Vikes still logged a top 20 press rate nationally and the league’s highest defensive turnover rate. The constantly probing Parker should lead PSU to the league’s highest offensive rim rate once again, but Saterfield, Saunders, and Woods should theoretically improve the miserable shot making and shot selection of last year’s extremely poor shooting team (10th in 3PT% and dead last in rate).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Can Munson replace Khalid Thomas’ production on both ends of the floor? Hayden Curtiss and Jacob Eyman can’t be relied upon for major minutes, especially given PSU’s tempo offensively, and there’s nothing else in the frontcourt.

9. NORTHERN ARIZONA

WHAT I LIKE: When you went 5-15 in league play and lost your last 8 games to end the year, I’m not sure “roster continuity” is what you really want, but the Jacks have it, so we’ll call it a positive for this sake of this exercise. NAU actually wasn’t a bad offensive team, despite what the overall numbers say- they just couldn’t score at the rim or in transition, which theoretically are relatively easy fixes comparatively. Shane Burcar’s offense will once again be dominated by PG Jalen Cone, who finished 2nd in both usage and shot rates in BSC play. Cone is an undeniable wizard in PNR, but his volume jump shooting dragged his efficiency down (although he led NAU to the highest off the dribble jump shooting efficiency in the league, per ShotQuality), and you’d like to see the turnover rate get down into the teens. Keith Haymon returns as one of the league’s best shooters, a tough cover on the perimeter at 6’7. Carson Towt also returns to the frontcourt to anchor what should be the best rebounding team in the league again, as the Jacks were first in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates in BSC play. Ezekiel Richards is also a plus rebounder and a weak side shot blocker, tallying the 3rd highest block rate in the league, while stretch 4 Nik Mains returns to the frontcourt as well. Jack Wistrcill could break into the deep frontcourt rotation as a frosh as well.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite Cone’s outstanding efficiency in PNR, NAU was just 5th in PNR rate, and Burcar often runs a lot of motion through Carson Towt in both posts. Towt logged the 6th highest assist rate in the league, but you wonder if those possessions aren’t better served running through Cone and his PNR/dribble magic. While NAU was a decent shooting team, they couldn’t score anywhere else, ranking nearly dead last in the entire country in transition and rim efficiency (slasher Xavier Fuller hopes to change that and recapture his pre-injury efficiency at South Dakota two years ago). Despite logging the 15th best spacing in the country per SQ, they were near the bottom of the league in shot making and especially shot selection- a very weird team (to Burcar’s credit, he was the best offensive ATO coach in the league). Defensively, things weren’t much better. The Jacks were gashed at the rim and in transition off their poor shot selection, and were attacked off the dribble at the 2 and wing (another area Fuller can help improve). Those defensive deficiencies seem unlikely to change given the roster continuity and Burcar’s 3 year track record on that end.

10. IDAHO

WHAT I LIKE: Last year’s Idaho team was dominated by Mikey Dixon and Tre Anderson, who took turns completely powering the Vandal offense, but I could easily see the wing/frontcourt being the strength of this year’s Idaho team. Zac Claus hit a couple of potential homeruns with the addition of JUCO double double machine Isaac Jones and former 4 star TCU/Vandy recruit Terren Frank, who will be the most physically talented player Claus has had in Moscow. Rashad Smith will no longer have to play out of position, and will continue to be one of the league’s best rebounding wings, but will he continue to lead the league in 3PT% with a more prominent role sans Dixon and Anderson? With Smith, Frank, Jones, and JUCO wing Dominique Ford, there’s a lot of potential scoring here to make up for the Anderson and Dixon show.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Point guard is a major potential pitfall for Claus, as Yusef Salih is probably the best option, but he’s potentially better served off the ball. San Jose St transfer Trey Smith isn’t a ballhandler (or much of a shooter), and RJ Walker and Divant’e Moffitt are unproven at this level. There’s also the glaring defensive issues that weren’t necessarily significantly addressed, as the Vandals were the worst in the league in defensive efficiency margin, and were particularly soft at the rim. Frank isn’t a shotblocker or rebounder, and Idaho once again looks like they could surrender a lot of points inside.

ASUN 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. LIBERTY

WHAT I LIKE: Darius McGhee. Obviously the return of everyone’s favorite mega flamethrower instantly kept Liberty at the top of the ASUN pecking order, and Ritchie McKay’s Flames should once again be the team to beat despite having their NCAA Tournament streak halted by Bellarmine in the ASUN tourney last year. McKay’s packline defense and mover-blocker offense are synonymous with Liberty basketball, and the efficiency numbers in virtually every offensive metric are beyond impressive (an abbreviated list per ShotQuality ratings: top 5 nationally in PPP in halfcourt, off screens, off the dribble AND catch/shoot threes, in isolation- thanks to cheat code McGhee, spacing, shot selection, and PPP after a time out- McKay actually led the entire country in this metric). McGhee’s supporting cast is highlighted by the hyper efficient inside-out duo of Kyle Rode and Shiloh Robinson, with post Blake Preston returning to the frontcourt as well. Frosh Zach Cleveland should figure into the frontcourt rotation, while word on the street is Bryson Spell is actually the best shooting big on the roster. McGhee’s backcourt mates will be a mix of familiar faces in defensive specialist Joe Venzant, deadly shooter Brody Peebles, athletic wing Isiah Warfield and new faces like talented frosh PG Colin Porter. This should once again be one of the country’s most efficient offenses in virtually every facet.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite leading the ASUN in efficiency rating, McKay’s defense really struggled when it mattered in dribble contain (which is of course a key tenet of the packline). Warfield and Venzant can defend multiple positions, but there are issues at the rim when that line of defense breaks down, and I’m not sure a kid like Cleveland rectifies those issues immediately.

Liberty beat writer and insider Damien Sordelett (@DamienSordelett on twitter) of The News and Observer of Lynchburg was generous enough to provide his excellent insight into the upcoming Liberty basketball season

WHAT DAMIEN LIKES: Bellarmine may have stunned the college basketball world by beating Liberty in the ASUN Conference semifinals, opening the door for Jacksonville State to receive the league’s NCAA Tournament automatic bid in unconventional fashion, but that doesn’t mean the ASUN title won’t run through Lynchburg again. Ritchie McKay scored arguably the biggest recruiting win of his second stint at Liberty when Darius McGhee announced he was utilizing his COVID year of eligibility to return to the program. McGhee was one of the nation’s most dynamic players in the 2021-22 campaign, leading the nation in usage percentage (38%) and made 3-pointers (142), and also ranking second in scoring average (24.6). The offense was tailored to getting McGhee more one-on-one looks as the season progressed, but expect that to change in this upcoming season. Freshman Colin Porter has emerged as the likely starter at point guard, giving McGhee and Kyle Rode a breather from having to bring the ball up the court every possession. That will allow McGhee to settle back into what made him so explosive with his ability to move without the ball within the offense and utilize his lightning-fast catch-and-release off screens. The reduced pressure off Rode’s shoulders will allow him to play at a much freer rate, similar to how he ended last season. Despite taking a back seat to McGhee, Rode finished fourth in the ASUN with an offensive rating of 118 (per Sports-Reference), which was more than four points higher than McGhee. Shiloh Robinson gets some help with athletic freshmen Zach Cleveland and Ben Southerland giving McKay the type of bigs who can finish at the rim and stretch the defense. Bryson Spell, a 6-foot-9 redshirt freshman, bulked up to 220 pounds and has the skill set to finish in the paint and shoot the 3.

WHAT DAMIEN DOESN’T LIKE: McKay is going to need a pair of sophomores (Brody Peebles and Joseph Venzant) and junior Isiah Warfield to become more consistent on the offensive end. Peebles showed flashes of that throughout the season, but McGhee’s scoring prowess limited how often Peebles was able to flourish on that end of the court. Venzant’s offensive production dropped considerably as the season progressed, meaning he and Warfield essentially rotated on the court as defensive specialists. Keegan McDowell’s 3-point shooting will be missed, and it will likely be up to seldom-used Jonathan Jackson to provide that spark off the bench. Jackson, actually, was in line to be in the rotation at the beginning of the 2020-21 season, but an undisclosed illness (non-COVID) relegated him to being on the outside looking in once the season began. Liberty’s most successful teams had Scottie James gobbling up rebounds and limiting opponents’ shooting percentage in the paint. Blake Preston, expected to be the heir apparent to James, has not developed into that type of player. His minutes will be tied to how well he improves on that end of the court.

2. EASTERN KENTUCKY

WHAT I LIKE: After an extremely disappointing first season in the ASUN that was marred by bad in game luck, injuries, and extended covid absences, AW Hamilton reloaded the EKU roster with an incredibly impressive recruiting haul, making the Colonels the league’s most talented roster on paper- and a roster with depth and athleticism capable of playing Hamilton’s extreme run and jump style which recorded the country’s second highest press rate (per Synergy). Hamilton REALLY loaded up on ballhandlers, adding a pair of Indy point guards in Tay Comer and Leland Walker, the highest rated EKU recruit of the internet ranking era, and the reigning Kentucky Mr. Basketball Turner Buttry. Former 4 star recruit Taelon Martin also joins the backcourt after a year at Southern Idaho. The versatility and talent on the wing is just as prevalent, with highly regarded JUCO All-American John Ukomadu joining returnees Devontae Blanton and deadly stretch shooter Michael Moreno. The press was gashed on the back end, but Hamilton seemingly addressed that issue as well with the additions of WKU transfer Isaiah Cozart, FAU transfer Dardan Kapiti, and particularly long armed human pogo stick David Onanina.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: EKU is talented on paper, but that’s no guarantee that everyone will mesh, and there’s a lack of proven offensive output in the frontcourt

3. JACKSONVILLE STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Last year’s sorta ASUN champ lost a lot of veteran production, but Ray Harper has replaced them with high upside P6 transfers in the backcourt like Cam McDowell (Georgia), DJ Gordon (Penn St), and particularly Peyton Daniels (Vandy). McDowell, Gordon, and Morehead State wing Skyelar Potter should give Harper the most athletic and versatile wing corps in the league, while Daniels can keep Demaree King off the ball, where he was one of the league’s most deadly shooters, shooting 46% from 3 in ASUN play and racking up the league’s top eFG% and true shooting % en route to an absurd 130 ORtg (per KenPom). Harper also bolstered the frontcourt with Monzy Jackson, a potential wrecking ball at this level defensively and on the glass at the 3/4. Jackson coupled with Amanze Ngumezi, who was poised for a potentially massive breakout campaign before a preseason injury, gives JSU unrivaled frontcourt athleticism. With lumbering Huffman’s departure in the frontcourt, JSU should be deploying less drop coverage and thus slashing one of the country’s highest 3PTA rates (although playing in the country’s 2nd highest 3PTA rate conference had a lot to do with that too).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: JSU’s spacing and shooting were top 15 nationally per ShotQuality, but the Gamecocks lose 3 of their 4 best shooters and their top 2 distributors. I mentioned McDowell and Daniels’ upside in that regard, but if that mesh doesn’t occur or they don’t live up to the hype, last year’s gaudy efficiency numbers could take a significant dip.

4. FGCU

WHAT I LIKE: Under Michael Fly, FGCU didn’t lack talent, but they lacked discipline and general coherent scheme. If you know anything about Pat Chambers, you know it’s all discipline and defensive scheme from his bench. FGCU will immediately be one of the league’s best defensive teams, particularly at the rim (a Chambers hallmark), where the Eagles were already strong under Fly. Chambers infused the roster with athletic Philly talent like Dahmir Bishop on the wing (assuming he gets a waiver) and Sam Onu at the rim to replace Kevin Samuel (in addition to the return of mountainous rim protector Andre Weir). The Eagles should be able to shoot the ball consistently with Purdue transfer Isaiah Thompson and lethal marksman Chase Johnston coming over from Stetson. Pair them with efficient slasher Cyrus Largie and FGCU has some legit scoring punch to complement what should be a stout defensive team.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s no obvious replacement to fill Tavian Dunn-Martin’s role on the ball. Largie, Thompson, and Johnston will all fill in for ball handling duties, as will fellow wing Caleb Cotto, but none are particularly close to true PGs. Additionally, Samuel was a more polish offensive threat than Onu, so offensive efficiency could take a significant dip in Chambers’ first year, an area that was never a strong suit of any of his teams at Penn St or BU.

5. AUSTIN PEAY

WHAT I LIKE: The Govs make their foray into the ASUN with arguably league’s most talented roster, featuring high major pedigree former recruits like Elijah Hutchins-Everett, Sean Durugordon, and Shon Robinson. Hutchins-Everett could easily exploit a general league wide lack of rim protection, and is poised for a massive second season as the ASUN’s best true big man. Durugordon and Robinson meanwhile bring high major length and athleticism to the 3/4, giving Nate James the league’s best frontcourt. Add in a pair of 6’7 wings with ball skills in Cam Copeland and Caleb Stone-Carrawell, and APSU’s length and athleticism 1-5 is rivaled only by Eastern Kentucky. Copeland in particular is a (very) fringe 3 and D NBA prospect.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: APSU’s offense was often undermined by turnovers and poor shooting (compounded by their inexplicable volume from 3), and I’m not seeing how those issues are rectified. Carlos Paez seemingly lost James’ confidence on the ball, and Stone-Carrawell is not a PG. The Govs have the highest upside in the league, but a lot of practical drawbacks exist, namely who runs the offense.

6. BELLARMINE

WHAT I LIKE: Scott Davenport and trust in one of the country’s must cut reliant offenses to produce quality shots off the ball is the main attraction for the defending ASUN champs. The Knights produced the 5th best shot selection rating with the 20th highest catch and shoot rate per ShotQuality, and that’s a result of Davenport’s tried and true no dribble, constantly cutting motion offense. Basically everyone on the floor can shoot it for the Knights, and Davenport returns a very veteran roster.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: I mentioned nearly everyone returns for Bellarmine, but the one name missing is a big one, Dylan Penn. Penn is an uncanny bucket getter and finisher at the rim in and out of the offense, and he’s essentially irreplaceable even in a plug and play system like Davenport’s offense. The other big issue is a super sag defense that allows one of the highest 3PTA rates in the country being used in a league that shoots the 3 at the 2nd highest rate.

7. JACKSONVILLE

WHAT I LIKE: Jordan Mincy turned a lot of heads in his first season at JU, and he’s likely to maintain/build off that success thanks to the return of 4 starters, most notably Kevion Nolan, who withdrew from the portal this spring. Nolan is the league’s best ball screen guard, and overall one of the most underrated PGs in the entire country. Nolan’s supporting cast is mostly intact with the exception of Tyrese Davis, and Mincy added plus shooters in NJIT transfer Dylan O’Hearn and North Dakota St guard Jarius Cook. The Dolphins were the league’s best rebounding team last year, and return the core of their frontcourt in Mike Marsh, Osayi Osifo, and Bryce Workman. Mincy also hauled in Omar Payne from the portal, a former recruit of his at Florida who spent last year behind Kofi Cockburn at Illinois.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Mincy obviously pushed a lot of the right buttons, the Dolphins’ unexpected turnaround had a major boost from Lady Luck. ASUN opponents shot just under 30% from 3 against JU, despite the defense allowing the 2nd highest 3PA rate in the league. Mincy mixed defenses seamlessly, shifting from pack line to matchup zone, but it’s hard to rely on a 3PT dominated league like the ASUN shooting sub 30% from 3 again. To wit, ShotQuality clocked JU’s league record at 2-14 based on quality of shots taken, a precipitous drop from their 11-5 mark. JU’s 3PT aversion (last in the league in 3PTA rate) also saw them facing the most zone in ASUN play. Ideally O’Hearn and Cook provide some more consistent shooting.

8. NORTH FLORIDA

WHAT I LIKE: It was a confusing season from UNF last year, typically one of the more predictable teams in terms of style on both ends. Matthew Driscoll essentially abandoned his extended 2-3 matchup zone, with UNF’s zone rate falling from 60% to just 10% last year. Curiously, that didn’t alter the fact that UNF allowed 3PTAs at a bottom 15 rate defensively, while chucking them at a top 10 rate on the other end. That shift from zone to far more man could have been because of constant injuries to key players last year, but Driscoll ended up with one of his best defensive teams in his 10+ years at the helm, with the Ospreys logging the league’s 2nd best defensive efficiency margin (per KenPom). It certainly helped that Driscoll had three (3!) of the league’s best rim protectors in Dorian James (roving defensive wrecking ball), Jonathan Aybar, and Jadyn Parker (true brick wall at the rim) at his disposal, leading to the league’s most efficient rim protection defense despite allowing the highest rim rate in the league (it obviously helps when you have 3 players in the top 6 in block rate). James, Aybar, and Parker return, as does the heart of Driscoll’s 3PT barrage on the other end, PG Jose Placer, shooter Jarius Hicklen, wing Carter Hendricksen, who suffered an incredibly down year due to a litany of injuries, and Emmanuel Adedoyin, who also had an uncommonly miserable year shooting the ball after being pressed into PG duties due to injuries to Placer. Fairleigh Dickinson wing Oscar Berry is just what Driscoll wants, a knock down shooter, and UNF’s offense should see a tremendous bounce back from their worst efficiency margin since Driscoll’s first season in Jacksonville.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: If Hendricksen and Adedoyin don’t regain their form, that offensive improvement won’t materialize, as the two are tethered together. Despite abandoning the zone by and large, UNF was still incredibly susceptible on the glass, logging the league’s lowest defensive rebounding rate.

9. KENNESAW STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Year 3 of the Amir Abdur-Rahim era saw tangible improvement, as KSU knocked on the door of a winning conference season for the first time in their D1 history. That was enough to get AAR a somewhat suprising 4 year extension, but he and the Owls should build upon last season, as they return as much of their roster as any team in the league, particularly their strong backcourt and one of the league’s better back to the basket scorers in Demond Robinson. Terrell Burden spearheads that strong backcourt as one of the league’s steadiest on ball options. Burden logged the league’s 5th highest assist rate paired with a decently low TO rate, and generated the highest FT rate in the league- a true bail out option on the ball when the offense stagnates. Burden’s running mates remain intact with knockdown shooter Chris Youngblood returning, as well as Kasen Jennings and Spencer Rodgers. On the wing, rebound only Brandon Stroud could lose minutes to Temple transfer Quincy Ademokoya, a more dynamic offensive option. KSU’s offense, although lacking polish at times and featuring woeful FT shooting, should once again be in the top half of the league, especially with Burden as the engine.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. Ademokoya might help cover some gaps with his length, but KSU was porous in man to man on the ball and in the post, forcing AAR to zone at the league’s 3rd highest rate, a risky proposition in this 3PT reliant league.

10. LIPSCOMB

WHAT I LIKE: The return of Ahsan Asadullah, one of the country’s most skilled big man passers, leading Lipscomb in points, assists, and rebounds last year while posting the nation’s 5th highest assist rate. Everything in Lennie Acuff’s constantly cutting offense revolves around how teams defend Asadullah in the posts, so almost every Bisons shot is a post shot or three, nothing in between. When Asadullah was hurt last year, Acuff relied on Jacob Ognacevic, who was one of the country’s most efficient post scorers. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem like Acuff can play them together (despite Ognacevic’s plus jump shot) because of severe defensive issues. Will Pruitt returns as the primary benefactor of Asadullah’s post pass outs, along with absolutely deadly marksman Trae Benham. Tommy Murr is a potential flamethrower waiting to break out, but he can’t seem to find his rhythm in Acuff’s offense.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This is glaringly obvious, as the Bisons’ defense was ABYSMAL last year. There’s a distinct lack of athleticism throughout the roster, and that wasn’t sufficiently addressed in the offseason. Lipscomb allowed 1.10 PPP in ASUN play, by far the worst mark in the league, and forced the lowest turnover rate in the league as well. The good news for Acuff is that the Bisons were the victims of some extreme shooting luck, with conference foes hitting nearly 40% of their threes against them while scoring 1.1 PPP on guarded jump shots (but they scored 1.22 PPP on unguarded as well per Synergy). Unfortunately, even a course correction in opponent 3PT shooting would only leave the Bisons as a slightly less atrocious defense, as the issues are endemic of the athleticism deficiencies within in the program.

11. STETSON

WHAT I LIKE: The Hatters’ frontcourt is deep and has the potential to be one of the best defensive units in the league with the return of Mahamadou Diawara, Josh Smith, the enigmatic Wheza Panzo, and Alvin Tumblin, a wrecking ball at the top of Donnie Jones’ 1-1-3 zone pressure. The latter is also poised for a breakout second season offensively as one of the league’s most versatile and athletic wings. Smith meanwhile was never healthy last year, but he’s one of the league’s best two way rebounders (led the ASUN in OREB rate two seasons ago) and can stretch the floor a bit on the offensive end.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Stetson’s offensive turnover rate was the highest in the league, and Jones lost his three most efficient backcourt scorers in the offseason. Steph Swenson is a tantalizing PG with his speed and quick hands defensively, and has been top 2 in league assist rate his first two seasons. Unfortunately turnovers can still be a significant issue for him, and he’ll need prodigal son Luke Brown, Grand Canyon transfer Jalen Blackmon, and D3 sharpshooter Sam Peek to provide a lot of scoring in order to keep up those assist numbers. Peek in particular provides a lot intrigue as a 6’7 knock down shooter with a plus handle judging by the tape.

12. CENTRAL ARKANSAS

WHAT I LIKE: Camren Hunter. The second year PG was the league’s biggest surprise en route to ASUN frosh of the year honors, and the relentlessly attacking 6’3 bowling ball is a near nightly triple double threat in Anthony Boone’s extreme uptempo attack (the Bears played 3 possessions faster than even EKU, which is saying something). Hunter’s backcourt running mate Collin Cooper returns as one of the league’s better volume 3PT shooters, giving Boone a potent backcourt attack.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: UCA was gashed at the rim and off the dribble, allowing the 11th highest rim rate in the country per hoop-math. If your defense is designed to funnel shots into a shotblocker, a high rim rate is understandable, but these shots were basically off the dribble post token press break, and UCA has a distinct lack of rim protectors on the back end, which wasn’t addressed in the offseason. UCA notched a somewhat respectable 7 league wins, but only 2 (both against last place North Alabama) weren’t deemed “lucky” per ShotQuality boxscores.

13. NORTH ALABAMA

WHAT I LIKE: Hmm, tough one. Daniel Ortiz when on an absolute scoring bender in the last month of the season, providing some hope that the Lions begin to ascend from being one of the worst offensive teams in the country. PG CJ Brim is gone, but former Lipscomb PG KJ Johnson should slot in nicely as the primary ball handler.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This team was absolutely miserable offensively last year, finishing dead last in the conference in 2PT and 3PT%. While watching Ortiz go full Jose Perez will be entertaining, it’s not a recipe for sustained offensive efficiency, and Johnson doesn’t provide any shooting either (part of the reason he fell out of favor at Lipscomb).

14. QUEENS

WHAT I LIKE: Queens plays incredibly fast, chucks a lot of threes, and pressed at a 31% rate in their last season of D2 play. Kenny Dye returns as deadly shooting PG, hitting nearly 50% from 3 on 122 attempts. AJ McKee and Quan McCluney also return as volume shooters in a run and chuck system that could surprise some folks at first blush.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Highly successful Bart Lundy left to coach Milwaukee, leaving Queens with a first year head coach at the helm as they enter D1 play. However, Grant Leonard has been associate head coach under Lundy for the past 6 seasons, so likely very little is lost in the coaching transition. What is lost is leading scorer, rebounder, and blocker Jamari Smith. Queens is a clone of Eastern Kentucky, and while I can’t quote chapter and verse on their roster, there appears to be little height on the back end. This defense is going to allow a LOT of crooked numbers given their style and lack of D1 athleticism in the frontcourt.

AMERICA EAST 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. VERMONT

• WHAT I LIKE: Even with the addition of Bryant to the league, the America East title runs through Burlington. John Becker lost a lot of incredibly key pieces from last year’s UVM squad that nearly wrote another Cinderella story for the program, but Bellarmine transfer Dylan Penn could immediately be the league’s best scoring option. Penn will be the centerpiece of an offense looking to transform from an elite inside-out machine led by Ryan Davis to a more on-ball, penetration reliant unit through the incoming new PG. Vermont scored at the 8th most efficient rate at the rim in the entire country last year (1.23 PPP per ShotQuality), and while Penn’s relentless rim pressure on the ball and ability to finish consistently/draw contact won’t be quite as efficient as Davis’ inside out game, the Catamounts are still going to collapse defenses with ease. Vermont’s shot selection and shot making were both top 20 per ShotQuality, and Finn Sullivan, Kam Gibson, and off ball scorer Aaron Deloney will be the primary beneficiaries of Penn’s constant lane probing (Penn himself isn’t a shooter at all).
• WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Becker’s track record of player development is well noted and celebrated for a reason, and it will really need to shine immediately in the frontcourt in Davis’ wake. Freshmen Jorge Ochoa and Perry Smith (whose development has been slowed by a summer shoulder injury) have high major recruiting pedigrees and will likely be expected to contribute immediately (a rarity for Becker bigs), while hyper athletic 3/4 Ileri Ayo-Faleye will have to replace Isaiah Powell’s rangy interior defense. Becker’s teams are consistently elite in their ability to limit quality looks at the rim and completely snuff out second chance opportunities (best defensive rebounding rate in the country last year per KenPom). Those two program building blocks are as shaky as they’ve ever been heading into the season, and it could be quickly exposed by the absences of bulldog perimeter defenders Shungu and Mazzulla, who guarded the 3PT line with tenacity, leading to the 5th lowest open 3 rate in the country last year. Physically intimidating 6’5 wing Sam Alamutu will be expected to cover a lot of gaps in the perimeter coverage this year. In short, there’s a lot riding on freshmen like Smith, an unusual position for a John Becker team. It might be a bit but reductionist, but if Smith is the real deal, UVM still wins the AmEast.

2. BRYANT

WHAT I LIKE: Despite having yet to actually play an America East game, Bryant is unquestionably the most talented team in the league, with Jared Grasso’s wide portal net snagging Earl Timberlake and Sherif Kenney from the high(ish) major ranks. Timberlake (if fully recovered from shoulder surgery) automatically becomes the most talented player in the league, and Kenney is a proven rim attacker with length and switchability defensively. Timberlake, Kenney, Rhode Island transfer Antwan Walker, Hofstra transfer Kvonn Cramer, and mega bucket getter Charles Pride give Grasso an obscene amount of switchable and athletic length 2-4- truly unparalleled in this league. The addition of former NEC rival Chauncey Hawkins gives Grasso something he’s lacked in recent years, a true distributor and on ball menace at the point, which should give this team a little more offensive structure than the “shoot first, never ask questions later” up and down mentality of past Bryant teams (Bryant played at about 73 possessions, which is 7 more than the AmEast league average, one of the slower leagues in all of D1), while the face of last year’s NCAA Tournament Doug Edert brings some 3PT shooting stability to a team that missed a LOT of threes borne from Grasso’s preferred tempo. Defensively, Bryant had the 7th highest zone rate and 15th highest press rate (per Synergy) nationally last year, and Timberlake, Kenney, and Cramer should be absolute wrecking balls in that scrambling matchup zone.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Even though not fully healthy last year, Hall Elisias was the league’s most dominant rim protector, and Walker/Cramer don’t quite project to have the same impact at the rim defensively. There’s also some concern about how Grasso’s more unstructured approach to the game will translate to a mostly rigid league (outside of Jim Ferry and UMBC).

3. UMASS LOWELL

WHAT I LIKE: Pat Duquette returns almost every key contributor from last year (obviously a rarity in this day and age of midmajor basketball) while also adding a few key portal additions. With Ryan Davis exiting Vermont, Max Brooks returns as the league’s best two way big man in addition to being the league’s best rebounder. Brooks and post Allin Blunt (who can also step out and hit the 3 from time to time) form the league’s most potent frontcourt, which is only bolstered by the addition of Abdoul Coulibaly and the return of hopefully healthy Connor Withers, one of the league’s most skilled bigs when he’s right. UML was the AmEast’s best interior defense last year, and held league opponents to just under 1 PPP despite teams hitting nearly 40% from 3 against them. Level off that 3PT shooting (on the lowest attempt rate allowed in the league), and Duquette’s squad is likely the best defense in the conference.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the UML frontcourt is loaded, the backcourt often undermines the offensive production. This was an incredibly inefficient PNR based offense, and the collective return of Ayinde Hikim and Everette Hammond doesn’t offer much hope in terms of turning that around. Mikey Watkins from Merrimack should take care of primary ball handling duties, but neither he nor William & Mary transfer Yuri Covington will alleviate the fatal spacing and shooting issues that plagued this offense last year. Any hope for an offensive efficiency turnaround from the backcourt likely lies in the hands of a full season from Justin Faison. That said, this backcourt can defend the hell out of the ball, particularly Hammond.

4. NJIT

WHAT I LIKE: It’s a pivotal year for Brian Kennedy, who has yet to post a winning league mark at NJIT (whether it be in the ASUN or AmEast), but his roster is loaded, relatively speaking. Miles Coleman returns as the fulcrum of the offense at something of a point-forward role, and will pair with Kevin Osawe (Little Rock by way of Western Kentucky) to form one of the league’s best 3/4 hybrid forward tandems. Souley Diakite returns for a 5th season, and is one of the league’s better blocks and boards guy when he can stay on the floor. While the frontcourt is a veteran crew with an identified ceiling, the backcourt is where the real potential lies. Paul McMillan should immediately be the focal point of the offense as the best recruit in NJIT history, and Marist transfer Raheim Sullivan can play on or off the ball (the Highlanders were essentially without a point guard for much of the latter part of the season last year), and is a reliable shooter, a much needed commodity in Newark.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: McMillan has to be as good as advertised, because the offense can’t continue to run through Coleman as much as it did last year (2nd in the league in both usage and shot rate) given his 89.6 ORtg in league play. This isn’t a knock on Coleman, as his inefficiency was largely the result of not having a PG on the roster, and the Highlanders put up absolutely abysmal efficiency numbers and advanced stat ratings across the board on the offensive end. Has that glaring issue been remedied with McMillan and Sullivan?

5. BINGHAMTON

WHAT I LIKE: It’s a precipitous drop from UVM and Bryant to the rest of the league, but Levell Sanders has a bit of momentum heading into his second season at the helm at Binghamton, as the Bearcats won more the 5 league games for first time since the 09-10 season. Dual prolific ball screen PGs Jacob Falko and John McGriff spearhead the offensive attack, but the Binghamton O will be bolstered by the addition of smooth scoring wing Armon Harried out of Canisius. Harried’s slashing capabilities should open the floor for fellow wing Christian Hinckson, who flashed one of the league’s best 3 and D repertoire’s last year. Defensively the Bearcats should probably be the league’s best interior unit, with the return of Hinckson, rim protector Savior Ogeheneyole, and the addition of EKU transfer Tariq Balogun (virtually the same player as Ogeheneyole).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Binghamton’s defense was buoyed by some unlikely to repeat 3PT shooting luck and Sanders’ two best players in McGriff and Falko were never able to efficiently share the court together, with spacing and shot selection being particular areas of deficit- and that’s compounded by the lack of any frontcourt production outside of the undersized Hinckson.

6. UMBC

WHAT I LIKE: Jim Ferry has to deal with some considerable roster turnover, and opted for the grad transfer route as an immediate band-aid. Craig Beaudion can be one of the league’s better PGs after exiting a weird situation at Cleveland State (although frosh Mason Docks will push him for playing time immediately), and he can certainly allow Jacob Boonyasith to continue to snipe off the ball as one of the AmEast’s premier shooters. D2 lights out shooter Colton Lawrence can thrive in Ferry’s up and down, 3PT heavy scheme if he’s healthy (same situation for former Akron wing Tre Edwards), while Buffalo transfer Tra’van Fagan and in-conference transfer Jarvis Doles provide the stretchiness and versatility at the 4 that Ferry covets, making an intriguing frontcourt with burgeoning Yaw Obeng-Mensah

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense should remain a sieve, but there is hope that Beaudion shores up some of the on ball issues and Obeng-Mensah’s second season as a rim protector could certainly aid a group that was gashed at the rim. Fagan’s switchability was a missing piece last year as well, but the Retrievers were still dead last in the league in both block and steal rate, and posted the least efficient post and rim defense in the AmEast. Transition defense was also a major issue, typically a given with Ferry’s run and chuck style leading to a lot of runouts the other way.

7. ALBANY

WHAT I LIKE: Despite some offcourt issues that I won’t delve into, Dwayne Killings had a surprisingly not unsuccessful first season replacing Will Brown, but he’ll need a solid nucleus of second year players to continue to develop in order to make a leap into legitimate league contention. That nucleus is highlighted by versatile wings Aaron Reddish, Ny’Mire Little, and Justin Neely, all of whom struggled with consistency last year, which was more or less to be expected. Cornell transfer Sarju Patel should help remedy some severe shooting issues, while undersized Trey Hutcheson receives some help in the frontcourt from Green Bay import Jappanah Kellogg and touted frosh Jonathan Beagle. Defensive intensity, particularly on the ball, was Albany’s calling card last year, and while several key perimeter defenders have exited, the length and versatility of that second year wing corps should keep Albany among the league’s best defensive teams, especially with addition of ballhawking Merrimack PG Malik Edmead.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This team was an abomination offensively last year, ranking 354th in ShotQuality’s “shot selection” metric, and there were virtually no easy shots to be had at the rim for this Great Dane squad. Relying on a freshman (Beagle) and Kellogg to rectify the total lack of frontcourt scoring punch is a stretch, and while Edmead is a solid shooter and defensive wizard, he’s severely turnover prone on the ball- that’s troubling for the development of that second year wing corps and the overall health of the offense (although Patel should immediately be one of the league’s best shooters).

8. NEW HAMPSHIRE

WHAT I LIKE: I guess I’m just banking on the venerable Bill Herrion to keep UNH out of the AmEast cellar, as the roster has almost completely turned over from the best offensive team Herrion has ever had in Durham. Wing slasher Nick Johnson now becomes the focal point of the offense, and a trio of transfer guards will look to stabilize the backcourt. The ringleader of that crew should be D2 shooter Nazim Derry, while Seattle transfer Kyree Brown should handle on ball responsibilities, with former Marist guard Matt Herasme providing some depth and shooting.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s one thing you can take to the bank with a Herrion team, they’re not going to allow second chance points, as UNH has been a top 10 defensive rebounding rate team nationally in 7 of the past 8 seasons (leading the entire country twice in that span). But even that program cornerstone is in jeopardy with a totally unknown frontcourt coming into town, as the entirety of Herrion’s frontcourt has yet to log a single D1 minute (unless we’re counting Central Arkansas transfer Jaxson Baker as a member of the frontcourt, but he doesn’t rebound well for his size regardless).

9. MAINE

WHAT I LIKE: The Chris Markwood hire could turn out to be an inspired one, as he’s young, energetic, and knows the league well having spent time at Vermont (plus he was on staff under Bill Coen at Northeastern, which is a definite plus). Markwood didn’t inherit an entirely bare cupboard, and the backcourt is a particular strength with burgeoning second year PG Byron Ireland and a hopefully healthy LeChaun DuHart returning. Ade Adetogun also returns to that unit as a rim running defensive specialist on the ball, while wings Jashonte Wright-McLeish and Georgia Southern transfer Gedi Juozapaitis can provide some passable perimeter shooting.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The frontcourt is thin to say the least, and it’s hard to envision that unit climbing out of the league cellar in terms of 2PT% D, defensive rebounding, and FG% allowed at the rim. The good news for Markwood is that the bar in Orono is set so incredibly low, that even a modicum of improvement and upward trajectory will likely result in COY potential.