BIG SKY 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. MONTANA STATE

WHAT I LIKE: The defending Big Sky champs lost a lot of veteran leadership in the backcourt, but Jubrile Belo returns as the league’s best rim protector, anchoring a defense that was 2nd in the BSC in efficiency margin, first in 2PT% D, and allowed the lowest PPP at the rim per ShotQuality. Danny Sprinkle’s wing corps is a strength as well, with ultra athletic RaeQuan Battle returning as one of the league’s most efficient slashers (with a surprisingly strong jump shot last year as well). Battle should be the focal point of the offense this season, but Tyler Patterson is another burgeoning option on the wing as the quintessential “glue guy”, while UC Davis transfer Caleb Fuller can do a little bit of everything on the wing.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt is definitely murky in the wake of Xavier Bishop, Amin Adamu, and Abdul Mohamed. Sprinkle will be asking interconference transfer Robert Ford III and CSUN import Darius Brown to step in immediately, with the latter taking on PG duties. Brown had three incredibly efficient seasons at CSUN as a combo PG, but missed almost all of last season due to injury. When healthy, he has incredible court vision, plus handle, and a more than respectable jump shot off the dribble. Ford is more of a penetrate first PG, but similar to Brown, he missed most of last season with a foot injury. MSU doesn’t shoot the 3 much, playing through Belo and Great Osobor in the post at the 13th highest rate nationally, but frosh Jed Miller is a knockdown shooter, and could find himself in the rotation early for that reason. If Brown and Ford solidify the backcourt vacuum, the Bobs are certainly very much in business as the league’s frontrunner.

2. WEBER STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Dillon Jones. Jones is a future pro and has an unguardable skillset as a 4 in the Big Sky. At 6’6 he was the league’s best defensive rebounder and can switch onto guards defensively, while adding a plus jump shot to his already polished offensive repertoire- having arguably the best two way player in the league goes a long way.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Changes abound in Ogden, from the top to the bottom, most notably Randy Rahe’s somewhat sudden retirement. However, Rahe’s departure isn’t as much of a concern for me, as Eric Duft is essentially just a younger version, having been with the team during the entirety of Rahe’s tenure. We’ve already seen Duft take more control over the team the last few seasons, as Weber’s pace has been significantly faster and there’s far less emphasis on running teams off the 3PT line on the other end. Roster wise, the changes are a little more concerning. There’s certainly talent with Junior Ballard and Keith Dinwiddie coming over from the Mountain West. Those additions (plus sharp shooter Steve Verplancken if he gets a waiver, which seems likely) alongside Zahir Porter (if he finds his form from 2 years ago) could give Weber an incredibly long and versatile backcourt (although frosh Chris Dockery will push for minutes immediately)- but there’s no obvious PG in that group. The frontcourt is bolstered by the addition of Tennessee transfer Handje Tamba, and while there’s depth there with floor stretcher Dyson Koehler and Alex Tew, there’s not a ton of upside outside of the incredibly raw Tamba.

3. MONTANA

WHAT I LIKE: The frontcourt. Travis DeCuire has assembled the league’s deepest frontcourt around Josh Bannan, the league’s most versatile and skilled offensive big. Bannan can score efficiently in the post and in pick and pop. Bannan’s defense was never on the same page as his offense, but the addition of Laolu Oke from Metro St gives the Grizz the boards and block big they really lacked last year. Colorado State transfer Dischon Thomas profiles similarly to Bannan offensively, so it will be interesting to see how DeCuire manages his bountiful frontcourt (and I didn’t even mention glue guy Mack Anderson, who was sort of the heart of the Grizz last year).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt lost PG Cam Parker (to Portland State, to rub a little salt in the wound), an excellent ball screen guard and dribble penetrator who logged a top 2 Big Sky assist rate in consecutive seasons. Brandon Whitney’s efficiency numbers in PNR are actually a touch better than Parker’s (but far less reps), and he’s the heir apparent at the point, along with NAIA combo guard import Jonathan Brown. Much like Parker, Whitney isn’t a shooter, but Brown and SUU transfer Aanen Moody very much are, and wing Lonnell Martin shot 37% from deep in BSC play, so the Grizz should have a better showing than their 9th place finish in 3PT%. That said, this group is going to struggle to defend dribble drives, just like last year. I can’t speak for Brown’s defense at this level yet, but I know Whitney and especially Moody aren’t likely to shore up the issue.

4. EASTERN WASHINGTON

WHAT I LIKE: The offense. David Riley took over and EWU didn’t miss a beat on the offensive end with a complex motion that incorporated elements of the swing offense. Steele Venters, Angelo Allegri, and even big Ethan Price can all work inside out and shoot the 3 with incredible accuracy- there’s a definite case to be made that EWU is the hardest opposing defensive prep in the league, and Jacksonville transfer Tyrese Davis fits into that interchangeable inside out shooter role as well with a little more versatility. Fresno State transfer Deon Stroud brings some much needed wing athleticism as one of the most explosive athletes in the entire country.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. While EWU’s interchangeability and positional size was an asset offensively, it was a hindrance on the defensive end, where the Eagles were routinely exploited in PNR, forcing Riley to zone at the highest rate in the league per Synergy. Louisiana transfer Ty Harper brings plus on ball defense, but he’s an odd fit offensively where the Eagles butter their bread. Stroud’s athleticism will help, but I think overall EWU will still have serious deficiencies defending the more PNR focused teams of the league. I also have some concern about PG duties, which isn’t necessarily a major issue given the structure of Riley’s offense, but Ellis Magnuson’s turnover rate and shooting haven’t improved, and I’ve already mentioned Harper being an odd fit within the system offensively.

5. NORTHERN COLORADO

WHAT I LIKE: Elite offensive team on a national level. Steve Smiley runs the most efficient offense in the Big Sky at 1.13 PPP last year thanks to a well-oiled spread PNR attack led by the best returning wing (perhaps overall player) Daylen Kountz. Kountz was a machine out of ball screens and also drove UNC to one of the best iso offenses in the country- an elite offensive wing in every regard. UNC shot nearly 40% from 3 in league play with the highest volume, torching the nets at 1.2 PPP on catch and shoots. Spacing, shot making, and PPP after timeouts were all top 10 nationally per ShotQuality. While Kountz is the unquestioned leader, Matt Johnson returns as a hyper efficient shooting PG, and Dalton Knecht should have a more consistent second season as one of the league’s best wing shooters. Additionally, Smiley added two impressive wings in Caleb Shaw and Langston Reynolds, the former of which seemed like a lock for Grand Canyon with his brother already on the roster and his uncle is Bryce Drew. Shaw’s path to playing time is cloudy at the moment, but he’s clearly the next offensive efficiency machine in Smiley’s system.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the offense was all green on every advanced stats site, the defense was bright red. UNC torched teams in PNR and iso, but were just as torched on the defensive end in those areas, and lost their only real defensive presence in Kur Jockuch. Smiley replaced him with stretchy Rice big Riley Abercrombie, who should thrive in Greeley offensively, but he’s not an upgrade defensively. Even a modicum of improvement defensively would have led me to placing UNC easily in the top 3, but as it is, this looks incredibly similar to last year’s team.

6. SACRAMENTO STATE

WHAT I LIKE: The assembled talent under new head coach David Patrick. Patrick immediately showed off his renowned recruiting chops when he re-recruited Callum McRae from UCR and brought in fellow Aussies Akol Mawein and floor stretcher Hunter Marks (assuming he’s healthy). That immediately gives Sacramento St the best and most versatile frontcourt in the league, but Patrick didn’t stop there, adding wings Gianni Hunt from Oregon State for some ballhandling and shooting, Quadry Adams from St. Bonaventure for athleticism, and Austin Patterson from Wofford for spot shooting. Adams and Hunt (as well as returnees Zach Chappell and Cam Wilbon) will be relied upon immediately to replace the do-everything production of Bryce Fowler and the shooting of William FitzPatrick.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: It’s a lot of impressive assembled talent, but how do the pieces mesh exactly? There are several “sorta” PGs and a few “sorta” shooters (besides Patterson) with some redundancies in the frontcourt. There’s a lot of preseason smoke here, but I’m not 100% sure there’s a fire yet.

7. IDAHO STATE

WHAT I LIKE: A fresh start. The Bengals were beset by nagging injuries and covid issues, including health problems for Ryan Looney, and you saw that take a major toll on the defense, which went from 2nd in the league efficiency wise two seasons ago to 9th (.96 PPP compared to 1.1 PPP allowed). Looney is integrating a lot of new faces this year, but the portal heavy Bengals should be more in sync defensively. The ringleader of the new faces will be PG Miguel Tomley, who basically fell out of rotation for a very good Santa Clara team, but he’ll give ISU a true PG, which they totally lacked last year. Brock Mackenzie is a plus shooter from the D2 ranks, and frosh Maleek Arington should carve out a role as an on ball defender immediately. Mackenzie and AJ Burgin will be relied upon heavily to improve the league’s worst 3PT% offense last year, a must in one of the best shooting leagues in the country. ISU played through the post at the highest rate in the league, and returning post presence Brayden Parker will likely be displaced by BYU transfer Kolby Lee, a better rebounder and far more efficient around the rim. UCSB transfer Jay Nagle and returnee Jared Rodriguez can both stretch the floor a bit at the 4, again much needed given ISU was at or near the bottom in spacing, shot selection, and shot making last year (per ShotQuality).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Rim and post defense appear to be incredibly problematic again, even with the addition of Lee (or one can even say because of the addition of Lee, yikes), and improving on a league worst 1.3 PPP allowed at the rim doesn’t appear likely.

8. PORTLAND STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Jase Coburn continues to embrace the portal, replacing last year’s mercenaries with a new set that includes, ball screen wizard Cam Parker (who obviously knows the league well), deadly shooters Jorell Saterfield and Keshaun Saunders on the wing, plus rebounding wing Hunter Woods, and talented but underperforming 4 Kendall Munson. Coburn didn’t press as much as his predecessor, but the Vikes still logged a top 20 press rate nationally and the league’s highest defensive turnover rate. The constantly probing Parker should lead PSU to the league’s highest offensive rim rate once again, but Saterfield, Saunders, and Woods should theoretically improve the miserable shot making and shot selection of last year’s extremely poor shooting team (10th in 3PT% and dead last in rate).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Can Munson replace Khalid Thomas’ production on both ends of the floor? Hayden Curtiss and Jacob Eyman can’t be relied upon for major minutes, especially given PSU’s tempo offensively, and there’s nothing else in the frontcourt.

9. NORTHERN ARIZONA

WHAT I LIKE: When you went 5-15 in league play and lost your last 8 games to end the year, I’m not sure “roster continuity” is what you really want, but the Jacks have it, so we’ll call it a positive for this sake of this exercise. NAU actually wasn’t a bad offensive team, despite what the overall numbers say- they just couldn’t score at the rim or in transition, which theoretically are relatively easy fixes comparatively. Shane Burcar’s offense will once again be dominated by PG Jalen Cone, who finished 2nd in both usage and shot rates in BSC play. Cone is an undeniable wizard in PNR, but his volume jump shooting dragged his efficiency down (although he led NAU to the highest off the dribble jump shooting efficiency in the league, per ShotQuality), and you’d like to see the turnover rate get down into the teens. Keith Haymon returns as one of the league’s best shooters, a tough cover on the perimeter at 6’7. Carson Towt also returns to the frontcourt to anchor what should be the best rebounding team in the league again, as the Jacks were first in both offensive and defensive rebounding rates in BSC play. Ezekiel Richards is also a plus rebounder and a weak side shot blocker, tallying the 3rd highest block rate in the league, while stretch 4 Nik Mains returns to the frontcourt as well. Jack Wistrcill could break into the deep frontcourt rotation as a frosh as well.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite Cone’s outstanding efficiency in PNR, NAU was just 5th in PNR rate, and Burcar often runs a lot of motion through Carson Towt in both posts. Towt logged the 6th highest assist rate in the league, but you wonder if those possessions aren’t better served running through Cone and his PNR/dribble magic. While NAU was a decent shooting team, they couldn’t score anywhere else, ranking nearly dead last in the entire country in transition and rim efficiency (slasher Xavier Fuller hopes to change that and recapture his pre-injury efficiency at South Dakota two years ago). Despite logging the 15th best spacing in the country per SQ, they were near the bottom of the league in shot making and especially shot selection- a very weird team (to Burcar’s credit, he was the best offensive ATO coach in the league). Defensively, things weren’t much better. The Jacks were gashed at the rim and in transition off their poor shot selection, and were attacked off the dribble at the 2 and wing (another area Fuller can help improve). Those defensive deficiencies seem unlikely to change given the roster continuity and Burcar’s 3 year track record on that end.

10. IDAHO

WHAT I LIKE: Last year’s Idaho team was dominated by Mikey Dixon and Tre Anderson, who took turns completely powering the Vandal offense, but I could easily see the wing/frontcourt being the strength of this year’s Idaho team. Zac Claus hit a couple of potential homeruns with the addition of JUCO double double machine Isaac Jones and former 4 star TCU/Vandy recruit Terren Frank, who will be the most physically talented player Claus has had in Moscow. Rashad Smith will no longer have to play out of position, and will continue to be one of the league’s best rebounding wings, but will he continue to lead the league in 3PT% with a more prominent role sans Dixon and Anderson? With Smith, Frank, Jones, and JUCO wing Dominique Ford, there’s a lot of potential scoring here to make up for the Anderson and Dixon show.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Point guard is a major potential pitfall for Claus, as Yusef Salih is probably the best option, but he’s potentially better served off the ball. San Jose St transfer Trey Smith isn’t a ballhandler (or much of a shooter), and RJ Walker and Divant’e Moffitt are unproven at this level. There’s also the glaring defensive issues that weren’t necessarily significantly addressed, as the Vandals were the worst in the league in defensive efficiency margin, and were particularly soft at the rim. Frank isn’t a shotblocker or rebounder, and Idaho once again looks like they could surrender a lot of points inside.