ASUN 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. LIBERTY

WHAT I LIKE: Darius McGhee. Obviously the return of everyone’s favorite mega flamethrower instantly kept Liberty at the top of the ASUN pecking order, and Ritchie McKay’s Flames should once again be the team to beat despite having their NCAA Tournament streak halted by Bellarmine in the ASUN tourney last year. McKay’s packline defense and mover-blocker offense are synonymous with Liberty basketball, and the efficiency numbers in virtually every offensive metric are beyond impressive (an abbreviated list per ShotQuality ratings: top 5 nationally in PPP in halfcourt, off screens, off the dribble AND catch/shoot threes, in isolation- thanks to cheat code McGhee, spacing, shot selection, and PPP after a time out- McKay actually led the entire country in this metric). McGhee’s supporting cast is highlighted by the hyper efficient inside-out duo of Kyle Rode and Shiloh Robinson, with post Blake Preston returning to the frontcourt as well. Frosh Zach Cleveland should figure into the frontcourt rotation, while word on the street is Bryson Spell is actually the best shooting big on the roster. McGhee’s backcourt mates will be a mix of familiar faces in defensive specialist Joe Venzant, deadly shooter Brody Peebles, athletic wing Isiah Warfield and new faces like talented frosh PG Colin Porter. This should once again be one of the country’s most efficient offenses in virtually every facet.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite leading the ASUN in efficiency rating, McKay’s defense really struggled when it mattered in dribble contain (which is of course a key tenet of the packline). Warfield and Venzant can defend multiple positions, but there are issues at the rim when that line of defense breaks down, and I’m not sure a kid like Cleveland rectifies those issues immediately.

Liberty beat writer and insider Damien Sordelett (@DamienSordelett on twitter) of The News and Observer of Lynchburg was generous enough to provide his excellent insight into the upcoming Liberty basketball season

WHAT DAMIEN LIKES: Bellarmine may have stunned the college basketball world by beating Liberty in the ASUN Conference semifinals, opening the door for Jacksonville State to receive the league’s NCAA Tournament automatic bid in unconventional fashion, but that doesn’t mean the ASUN title won’t run through Lynchburg again. Ritchie McKay scored arguably the biggest recruiting win of his second stint at Liberty when Darius McGhee announced he was utilizing his COVID year of eligibility to return to the program. McGhee was one of the nation’s most dynamic players in the 2021-22 campaign, leading the nation in usage percentage (38%) and made 3-pointers (142), and also ranking second in scoring average (24.6). The offense was tailored to getting McGhee more one-on-one looks as the season progressed, but expect that to change in this upcoming season. Freshman Colin Porter has emerged as the likely starter at point guard, giving McGhee and Kyle Rode a breather from having to bring the ball up the court every possession. That will allow McGhee to settle back into what made him so explosive with his ability to move without the ball within the offense and utilize his lightning-fast catch-and-release off screens. The reduced pressure off Rode’s shoulders will allow him to play at a much freer rate, similar to how he ended last season. Despite taking a back seat to McGhee, Rode finished fourth in the ASUN with an offensive rating of 118 (per Sports-Reference), which was more than four points higher than McGhee. Shiloh Robinson gets some help with athletic freshmen Zach Cleveland and Ben Southerland giving McKay the type of bigs who can finish at the rim and stretch the defense. Bryson Spell, a 6-foot-9 redshirt freshman, bulked up to 220 pounds and has the skill set to finish in the paint and shoot the 3.

WHAT DAMIEN DOESN’T LIKE: McKay is going to need a pair of sophomores (Brody Peebles and Joseph Venzant) and junior Isiah Warfield to become more consistent on the offensive end. Peebles showed flashes of that throughout the season, but McGhee’s scoring prowess limited how often Peebles was able to flourish on that end of the court. Venzant’s offensive production dropped considerably as the season progressed, meaning he and Warfield essentially rotated on the court as defensive specialists. Keegan McDowell’s 3-point shooting will be missed, and it will likely be up to seldom-used Jonathan Jackson to provide that spark off the bench. Jackson, actually, was in line to be in the rotation at the beginning of the 2020-21 season, but an undisclosed illness (non-COVID) relegated him to being on the outside looking in once the season began. Liberty’s most successful teams had Scottie James gobbling up rebounds and limiting opponents’ shooting percentage in the paint. Blake Preston, expected to be the heir apparent to James, has not developed into that type of player. His minutes will be tied to how well he improves on that end of the court.

2. EASTERN KENTUCKY

WHAT I LIKE: After an extremely disappointing first season in the ASUN that was marred by bad in game luck, injuries, and extended covid absences, AW Hamilton reloaded the EKU roster with an incredibly impressive recruiting haul, making the Colonels the league’s most talented roster on paper- and a roster with depth and athleticism capable of playing Hamilton’s extreme run and jump style which recorded the country’s second highest press rate (per Synergy). Hamilton REALLY loaded up on ballhandlers, adding a pair of Indy point guards in Tay Comer and Leland Walker, the highest rated EKU recruit of the internet ranking era, and the reigning Kentucky Mr. Basketball Turner Buttry. Former 4 star recruit Taelon Martin also joins the backcourt after a year at Southern Idaho. The versatility and talent on the wing is just as prevalent, with highly regarded JUCO All-American John Ukomadu joining returnees Devontae Blanton and deadly stretch shooter Michael Moreno. The press was gashed on the back end, but Hamilton seemingly addressed that issue as well with the additions of WKU transfer Isaiah Cozart, FAU transfer Dardan Kapiti, and particularly long armed human pogo stick David Onanina.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: EKU is talented on paper, but that’s no guarantee that everyone will mesh, and there’s a lack of proven offensive output in the frontcourt

3. JACKSONVILLE STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Last year’s sorta ASUN champ lost a lot of veteran production, but Ray Harper has replaced them with high upside P6 transfers in the backcourt like Cam McDowell (Georgia), DJ Gordon (Penn St), and particularly Peyton Daniels (Vandy). McDowell, Gordon, and Morehead State wing Skyelar Potter should give Harper the most athletic and versatile wing corps in the league, while Daniels can keep Demaree King off the ball, where he was one of the league’s most deadly shooters, shooting 46% from 3 in ASUN play and racking up the league’s top eFG% and true shooting % en route to an absurd 130 ORtg (per KenPom). Harper also bolstered the frontcourt with Monzy Jackson, a potential wrecking ball at this level defensively and on the glass at the 3/4. Jackson coupled with Amanze Ngumezi, who was poised for a potentially massive breakout campaign before a preseason injury, gives JSU unrivaled frontcourt athleticism. With lumbering Huffman’s departure in the frontcourt, JSU should be deploying less drop coverage and thus slashing one of the country’s highest 3PTA rates (although playing in the country’s 2nd highest 3PTA rate conference had a lot to do with that too).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: JSU’s spacing and shooting were top 15 nationally per ShotQuality, but the Gamecocks lose 3 of their 4 best shooters and their top 2 distributors. I mentioned McDowell and Daniels’ upside in that regard, but if that mesh doesn’t occur or they don’t live up to the hype, last year’s gaudy efficiency numbers could take a significant dip.

4. FGCU

WHAT I LIKE: Under Michael Fly, FGCU didn’t lack talent, but they lacked discipline and general coherent scheme. If you know anything about Pat Chambers, you know it’s all discipline and defensive scheme from his bench. FGCU will immediately be one of the league’s best defensive teams, particularly at the rim (a Chambers hallmark), where the Eagles were already strong under Fly. Chambers infused the roster with athletic Philly talent like Dahmir Bishop on the wing (assuming he gets a waiver) and Sam Onu at the rim to replace Kevin Samuel (in addition to the return of mountainous rim protector Andre Weir). The Eagles should be able to shoot the ball consistently with Purdue transfer Isaiah Thompson and lethal marksman Chase Johnston coming over from Stetson. Pair them with efficient slasher Cyrus Largie and FGCU has some legit scoring punch to complement what should be a stout defensive team.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s no obvious replacement to fill Tavian Dunn-Martin’s role on the ball. Largie, Thompson, and Johnston will all fill in for ball handling duties, as will fellow wing Caleb Cotto, but none are particularly close to true PGs. Additionally, Samuel was a more polish offensive threat than Onu, so offensive efficiency could take a significant dip in Chambers’ first year, an area that was never a strong suit of any of his teams at Penn St or BU.

5. AUSTIN PEAY

WHAT I LIKE: The Govs make their foray into the ASUN with arguably league’s most talented roster, featuring high major pedigree former recruits like Elijah Hutchins-Everett, Sean Durugordon, and Shon Robinson. Hutchins-Everett could easily exploit a general league wide lack of rim protection, and is poised for a massive second season as the ASUN’s best true big man. Durugordon and Robinson meanwhile bring high major length and athleticism to the 3/4, giving Nate James the league’s best frontcourt. Add in a pair of 6’7 wings with ball skills in Cam Copeland and Caleb Stone-Carrawell, and APSU’s length and athleticism 1-5 is rivaled only by Eastern Kentucky. Copeland in particular is a (very) fringe 3 and D NBA prospect.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: APSU’s offense was often undermined by turnovers and poor shooting (compounded by their inexplicable volume from 3), and I’m not seeing how those issues are rectified. Carlos Paez seemingly lost James’ confidence on the ball, and Stone-Carrawell is not a PG. The Govs have the highest upside in the league, but a lot of practical drawbacks exist, namely who runs the offense.

6. BELLARMINE

WHAT I LIKE: Scott Davenport and trust in one of the country’s must cut reliant offenses to produce quality shots off the ball is the main attraction for the defending ASUN champs. The Knights produced the 5th best shot selection rating with the 20th highest catch and shoot rate per ShotQuality, and that’s a result of Davenport’s tried and true no dribble, constantly cutting motion offense. Basically everyone on the floor can shoot it for the Knights, and Davenport returns a very veteran roster.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: I mentioned nearly everyone returns for Bellarmine, but the one name missing is a big one, Dylan Penn. Penn is an uncanny bucket getter and finisher at the rim in and out of the offense, and he’s essentially irreplaceable even in a plug and play system like Davenport’s offense. The other big issue is a super sag defense that allows one of the highest 3PTA rates in the country being used in a league that shoots the 3 at the 2nd highest rate.

7. JACKSONVILLE

WHAT I LIKE: Jordan Mincy turned a lot of heads in his first season at JU, and he’s likely to maintain/build off that success thanks to the return of 4 starters, most notably Kevion Nolan, who withdrew from the portal this spring. Nolan is the league’s best ball screen guard, and overall one of the most underrated PGs in the entire country. Nolan’s supporting cast is mostly intact with the exception of Tyrese Davis, and Mincy added plus shooters in NJIT transfer Dylan O’Hearn and North Dakota St guard Jarius Cook. The Dolphins were the league’s best rebounding team last year, and return the core of their frontcourt in Mike Marsh, Osayi Osifo, and Bryce Workman. Mincy also hauled in Omar Payne from the portal, a former recruit of his at Florida who spent last year behind Kofi Cockburn at Illinois.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Mincy obviously pushed a lot of the right buttons, the Dolphins’ unexpected turnaround had a major boost from Lady Luck. ASUN opponents shot just under 30% from 3 against JU, despite the defense allowing the 2nd highest 3PA rate in the league. Mincy mixed defenses seamlessly, shifting from pack line to matchup zone, but it’s hard to rely on a 3PT dominated league like the ASUN shooting sub 30% from 3 again. To wit, ShotQuality clocked JU’s league record at 2-14 based on quality of shots taken, a precipitous drop from their 11-5 mark. JU’s 3PT aversion (last in the league in 3PTA rate) also saw them facing the most zone in ASUN play. Ideally O’Hearn and Cook provide some more consistent shooting.

8. NORTH FLORIDA

WHAT I LIKE: It was a confusing season from UNF last year, typically one of the more predictable teams in terms of style on both ends. Matthew Driscoll essentially abandoned his extended 2-3 matchup zone, with UNF’s zone rate falling from 60% to just 10% last year. Curiously, that didn’t alter the fact that UNF allowed 3PTAs at a bottom 15 rate defensively, while chucking them at a top 10 rate on the other end. That shift from zone to far more man could have been because of constant injuries to key players last year, but Driscoll ended up with one of his best defensive teams in his 10+ years at the helm, with the Ospreys logging the league’s 2nd best defensive efficiency margin (per KenPom). It certainly helped that Driscoll had three (3!) of the league’s best rim protectors in Dorian James (roving defensive wrecking ball), Jonathan Aybar, and Jadyn Parker (true brick wall at the rim) at his disposal, leading to the league’s most efficient rim protection defense despite allowing the highest rim rate in the league (it obviously helps when you have 3 players in the top 6 in block rate). James, Aybar, and Parker return, as does the heart of Driscoll’s 3PT barrage on the other end, PG Jose Placer, shooter Jarius Hicklen, wing Carter Hendricksen, who suffered an incredibly down year due to a litany of injuries, and Emmanuel Adedoyin, who also had an uncommonly miserable year shooting the ball after being pressed into PG duties due to injuries to Placer. Fairleigh Dickinson wing Oscar Berry is just what Driscoll wants, a knock down shooter, and UNF’s offense should see a tremendous bounce back from their worst efficiency margin since Driscoll’s first season in Jacksonville.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: If Hendricksen and Adedoyin don’t regain their form, that offensive improvement won’t materialize, as the two are tethered together. Despite abandoning the zone by and large, UNF was still incredibly susceptible on the glass, logging the league’s lowest defensive rebounding rate.

9. KENNESAW STATE

WHAT I LIKE: Year 3 of the Amir Abdur-Rahim era saw tangible improvement, as KSU knocked on the door of a winning conference season for the first time in their D1 history. That was enough to get AAR a somewhat suprising 4 year extension, but he and the Owls should build upon last season, as they return as much of their roster as any team in the league, particularly their strong backcourt and one of the league’s better back to the basket scorers in Demond Robinson. Terrell Burden spearheads that strong backcourt as one of the league’s steadiest on ball options. Burden logged the league’s 5th highest assist rate paired with a decently low TO rate, and generated the highest FT rate in the league- a true bail out option on the ball when the offense stagnates. Burden’s running mates remain intact with knockdown shooter Chris Youngblood returning, as well as Kasen Jennings and Spencer Rodgers. On the wing, rebound only Brandon Stroud could lose minutes to Temple transfer Quincy Ademokoya, a more dynamic offensive option. KSU’s offense, although lacking polish at times and featuring woeful FT shooting, should once again be in the top half of the league, especially with Burden as the engine.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. Ademokoya might help cover some gaps with his length, but KSU was porous in man to man on the ball and in the post, forcing AAR to zone at the league’s 3rd highest rate, a risky proposition in this 3PT reliant league.

10. LIPSCOMB

WHAT I LIKE: The return of Ahsan Asadullah, one of the country’s most skilled big man passers, leading Lipscomb in points, assists, and rebounds last year while posting the nation’s 5th highest assist rate. Everything in Lennie Acuff’s constantly cutting offense revolves around how teams defend Asadullah in the posts, so almost every Bisons shot is a post shot or three, nothing in between. When Asadullah was hurt last year, Acuff relied on Jacob Ognacevic, who was one of the country’s most efficient post scorers. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem like Acuff can play them together (despite Ognacevic’s plus jump shot) because of severe defensive issues. Will Pruitt returns as the primary benefactor of Asadullah’s post pass outs, along with absolutely deadly marksman Trae Benham. Tommy Murr is a potential flamethrower waiting to break out, but he can’t seem to find his rhythm in Acuff’s offense.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This is glaringly obvious, as the Bisons’ defense was ABYSMAL last year. There’s a distinct lack of athleticism throughout the roster, and that wasn’t sufficiently addressed in the offseason. Lipscomb allowed 1.10 PPP in ASUN play, by far the worst mark in the league, and forced the lowest turnover rate in the league as well. The good news for Acuff is that the Bisons were the victims of some extreme shooting luck, with conference foes hitting nearly 40% of their threes against them while scoring 1.1 PPP on guarded jump shots (but they scored 1.22 PPP on unguarded as well per Synergy). Unfortunately, even a course correction in opponent 3PT shooting would only leave the Bisons as a slightly less atrocious defense, as the issues are endemic of the athleticism deficiencies within in the program.

11. STETSON

WHAT I LIKE: The Hatters’ frontcourt is deep and has the potential to be one of the best defensive units in the league with the return of Mahamadou Diawara, Josh Smith, the enigmatic Wheza Panzo, and Alvin Tumblin, a wrecking ball at the top of Donnie Jones’ 1-1-3 zone pressure. The latter is also poised for a breakout second season offensively as one of the league’s most versatile and athletic wings. Smith meanwhile was never healthy last year, but he’s one of the league’s best two way rebounders (led the ASUN in OREB rate two seasons ago) and can stretch the floor a bit on the offensive end.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Stetson’s offensive turnover rate was the highest in the league, and Jones lost his three most efficient backcourt scorers in the offseason. Steph Swenson is a tantalizing PG with his speed and quick hands defensively, and has been top 2 in league assist rate his first two seasons. Unfortunately turnovers can still be a significant issue for him, and he’ll need prodigal son Luke Brown, Grand Canyon transfer Jalen Blackmon, and D3 sharpshooter Sam Peek to provide a lot of scoring in order to keep up those assist numbers. Peek in particular provides a lot intrigue as a 6’7 knock down shooter with a plus handle judging by the tape.

12. CENTRAL ARKANSAS

WHAT I LIKE: Camren Hunter. The second year PG was the league’s biggest surprise en route to ASUN frosh of the year honors, and the relentlessly attacking 6’3 bowling ball is a near nightly triple double threat in Anthony Boone’s extreme uptempo attack (the Bears played 3 possessions faster than even EKU, which is saying something). Hunter’s backcourt running mate Collin Cooper returns as one of the league’s better volume 3PT shooters, giving Boone a potent backcourt attack.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: UCA was gashed at the rim and off the dribble, allowing the 11th highest rim rate in the country per hoop-math. If your defense is designed to funnel shots into a shotblocker, a high rim rate is understandable, but these shots were basically off the dribble post token press break, and UCA has a distinct lack of rim protectors on the back end, which wasn’t addressed in the offseason. UCA notched a somewhat respectable 7 league wins, but only 2 (both against last place North Alabama) weren’t deemed “lucky” per ShotQuality boxscores.

13. NORTH ALABAMA

WHAT I LIKE: Hmm, tough one. Daniel Ortiz when on an absolute scoring bender in the last month of the season, providing some hope that the Lions begin to ascend from being one of the worst offensive teams in the country. PG CJ Brim is gone, but former Lipscomb PG KJ Johnson should slot in nicely as the primary ball handler.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This team was absolutely miserable offensively last year, finishing dead last in the conference in 2PT and 3PT%. While watching Ortiz go full Jose Perez will be entertaining, it’s not a recipe for sustained offensive efficiency, and Johnson doesn’t provide any shooting either (part of the reason he fell out of favor at Lipscomb).

14. QUEENS

WHAT I LIKE: Queens plays incredibly fast, chucks a lot of threes, and pressed at a 31% rate in their last season of D2 play. Kenny Dye returns as deadly shooting PG, hitting nearly 50% from 3 on 122 attempts. AJ McKee and Quan McCluney also return as volume shooters in a run and chuck system that could surprise some folks at first blush.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Highly successful Bart Lundy left to coach Milwaukee, leaving Queens with a first year head coach at the helm as they enter D1 play. However, Grant Leonard has been associate head coach under Lundy for the past 6 seasons, so likely very little is lost in the coaching transition. What is lost is leading scorer, rebounder, and blocker Jamari Smith. Queens is a clone of Eastern Kentucky, and while I can’t quote chapter and verse on their roster, there appears to be little height on the back end. This defense is going to allow a LOT of crooked numbers given their style and lack of D1 athleticism in the frontcourt.