Archive | January, 2022

1/31/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

31 Jan

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1/30/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

30 Jan

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1/29/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

29 Jan

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1/27/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

27 Jan

WCC

  1. Game of the night is in the WCC with Todd Golden’s San Francisco Dons taking on his former coach and the St. Mary’s Gaels. Randy Bennett’s fingerprints are all over the way Golden has built the USF program, from inventive on balls offensively to annually allowing one of the lowest 3PTA rates in the country defensively. Golden is 0-3 against the Gaels, but this is obviously his best chance to secure his first victory against Bennett, as the Dons are at home and have beefed up their frontcourt to handle one of the league’s most prolific post offenses through Tass, and Massalski has proven to be a solid defender in PNR as well, which is key for your bigs against a Bennett offense. I like the Dons’ backcourt advantage in this one with Bouyea, Shabazz, and Stefanini (who has been quiet lately), as SMC only has one solid on ball defender in Johnson (who went bananas in this game last year). Going the other way, USF will force the Gaels to put the ball on the floor, where they’re far less effective. The Dons have some positive shooting regression from 3 coming their way, as they’re sub 30% in league play but ShotQuality has them expected to be shooting 36%, of course it’s hard to rely on the 3 ball against a Bennett defense though. I lean the Dons here, but expected it to open at 2 or so, but looks like it might be coming down a touch as a write this.
  2. Santa Clara’s weakness has been big, physical frontcourts, and this current iteration of BYU lacks size due to injury, but the wide framed Traore has been becoming a bigger part of Pope’s offense, and is 12-14 from the field in BYU’s past 2 games. Despite being just 6’6, he’s going to be a problem for an underwhelming defensive frontcourt, who still can’t rely on more than 10 minutes from Bediako and lost Tongue. The Broncs have been solid on the D glass however, but I wonder if it’s a product of who they’ve played, with Gonzaga not missing and then playing a few squads that don’t go after misses. Regardless, they have to keep up the on glass, because Lohner and Traore are elite on tracking shots off the rim. Santa Clara has a big height advantage in the backcourt, where Jalen Williams is a problem for Barcello and Lucas. Sendek uses him on and off the ball, and I think Pope has to put Knight on him, which makes Justice a problem. The Broncs run a lot of offense through their big, mobile 4 Vrankic, and he was a massive issue for BYU two years ago (these two didn’t play last year). George is the most likely candidate to try to guard Vrankic, but I’m not sure he can handle him when he starts backing down, and Pope will eventually need to send help, which activates his elite passing game and the deadly Bronco shooters. The return of Pipes has shored up Santa Clara’s on ball defense, which is obviously key when the other team has Barcello and Lucas, and the Broncs are excellent in their ball screen coverage.
  3. Pepperdine’s talented but young backcourt can’t defend in ball screens, and that’s a huge issue against San Diego, one of the more prolific ball screen offenses in the country. I’ve mentioned before USD is a essentially a clone of the SMC program, so it’s worth noting the young Waves weren’t particularly competitive against the Gaels’ style.
  4. LMU doesn’t have a post defender and doesn’t run PNR, where you have to at least try to make Gonzaga defend. This has all the makings of another Gonzaga shellacking, especially when you look at LMU’s transition defense numbers.
  5. Tough matchup for Pacific’s defense, as Portland basically runs everyone off screens in 5 out zoom action, and Pacific has allowed 1 PPP defending in off ball screens, and has allowed it at the 3rd highest rate nationally, per ShotQuality. That said, there’s interesting regression data at play here, as opposing offenses can’t miss against the Tigers, and they’ve shooting an absurd 11% better from 3 than expected in league play (basically all of Pacific’s defensive metrics across the board are due for heavy regression per ShotQuality). Portland however is due some positive regression behind the arc offensively, as they’re shooting 8% worse than expected in league play. It all adds up to me staying away. Leonard Perry is still tinkering with his rotation with [checks calendar] one month left in the regular season. Typically not a good sign.

BIG TEN

  1. Some definite matchup concerns for Purdue’s defense in the rematch with Iowa, as one Keegan Murray will be in uniform this time around. Purdue can’t stop anyone on the dribble or in ball screens, even the worst backcourts in the B1G have given the Boilers issues (namely my beloved Indiana Hoosiers). Murray is an elite three level scorer with size- not great for Purdue, who couldn’t even keep Perkins out of the lane in the first meeting. Of course it nearly goes without saying that Purdue has major matchup advantages against an always soft Iowa defense, but Ivey (who will be back for this one) was the only Boiler star who had a good offensive performance in the first meeting, and Rebraca has been surprisingly sturdy in post defense, and Edey/Williams scored at just .78 points per post possession in the first meeting, with Iowa’s zone surprisingly effective. Of course the biggest issue for Purdue in that first matchup was Iowa’s zone pressure, where the Boilers almost completely gave an in hand game away with their turnovers. Purdue’s elite offense is obviously more than enough to allow them to blow open any given game, but their holes defensively (which at times extend 1-5 depending on personnel) make any matchup fraught with potential peril, especially when the other team has Keegan Murray. Iowa has obviously been very good ATS wise at home, Purdue very bad on the road, and that extends for the past several seasons.
  2. Tons of personnel issues on both sides in Ohio State-Minnesota. The Buckeyes are potentially down Wheeler and Johnson in the backcourt, and had to bring in former Buck Keyshaun Woods just to have full practices during another extended layoff. The Gophers meanwhile have Curry and Battle as game time decisions, and if they do play they sound like they’d certainly be limited. Of course you can’t talk about a Minnesota home game without mentioning the Barn effects. Holtmann has never won there and the severely shorthanded Gophers just beat Rutgers with essentially two players. The Barn magic is real, but Minnesota also hit a ton of tough jump shots in that game, and ShotQuality registered it as a narrow loss for the Gophers. There are some stark matchup issues at play in this one, going both ways. Minnesota is elite off the dribble and in their on balls, with 1-4 (if Battle plays) able to beat you on the bounce. Ohio State is perhaps only rivaled by Purdue in the porousness of their dribble drive and ball screen defense. ShotQuality clocks OSU at 342nd in terms of defensive efficiency in off the dribble jump shots, and that’s exacerbated severely if Wheeler is out, who was brought in for the very purpose of shoring up on ball defense. On the other side, everyone posts up Minnesota (highest post rate allowed in Big Ten and 4th nationally, per Synergy), and this is an absolute field day matchup for Liddell, even if Curry/Battle suit up. Personnel and matchup issues abound in this one, which is enough for me to sidestep it.
  3. Nebraska is coming off a covid pause, and only got everyone back on the court for practice in full yesterday. Wisconsin meanwhile might not have Wahl again (and he would have a plus plus matchup if he plays), and we saw how the offense struggled against Michigan State when Sparty send two long defenders at Davis on every single touch without fear of reprisal (teams will take their chances with Davison shooting 10 threes a game every single time). The Huskers have long, athletic wings to duplicate the Sparty game plan, especially with both McGowens back in tow. The Badgers are yet another Big Ten defense that everyone tries to get defending in PNR, and Nebraska has one of the highest PNR rates in the conference. The problem is Nebraska has struggled significantly against drop coverage, and Wisconsin is an elite drop coverage PNR defense.

ELSEWHERE

  1. I think we all know Western Kentucky’s sterling ATS record as an underdog under Stanz, and it’s unblemished as a home dog, with a 10 point cover margin. WKU should be mostly fine against UAB’s zone pressure- they know the scheme and they’ve seen FIU’s zone pressure 2x, and in their most recent game to boot. UAB is not a particularly strong zone offense, but they make they are after Jelly Walker poured in 9 threes against LA Tech. Per ShotQuality, UAB is the 7th most prolific midrange offense in the country, but WKU’s Sharp anchored zone ranks as the most efficient midrange offense in the country. WKU was a victim of shooting variance last time out, with FIU draining 16-35 threes against the zone, and SQ had that game as a 14 point Topper victory. Offensive rebounding from the Blazers against the zone and shot blocking Sharp is a major concern, but that’s offset by WKU’s likely large free throw disparity in their favor.
  2. Matchup issues on both sides in Hofstra-Charleston. The Cougars are abysmal in their PNR coverage, and Hofstra is an elite PNR offense, especially with Cooks back and looking electric in just 25 minutes vs Northeastern. On the other end, Hofstra is struggling to defend off the ball to the point that Speedy has turned to zone, and anyone who has followed Hofstra during the Mihalich era remembers the matchup zone issues the Pride had. C of C runs a lot of action off screens in a mostly positionless offense, but Charleston is not a particularly good zone offense to date (but they’ve also had some poor shooting luck).
  3. Northern Colorado’s PNR based offense is presents a pretty good defensive matchup for Weber State, who can go small with Jones at the 5 without fear getting bludgeoned in the paint. Smiley is constantly running on balls to find a mismatch for Hume and create an open 3 or open rim look (Smiley is a #analytics disciple), but Weber switches 1-4 and 1-5 when Jones is at the 5, which they can do here. Conversely, UNC’s ball screen coverage is a mess, ranking 349th in efficiency per ShotQuality. That’s a problem against McEwen, Overton, and Jawara.
  4. CSUF and UC Davis always play super close, hyper physical/chippy games, with Taylor (UC Davis alum) and Les having to be separated post game a few seasons ago. This is an intense, but under the radar Big West rivalry that didn’t get played last year due to covid, and both offenses are rim reliant, in different ways. CSUF works everything through Anosike in the post. Anigwe has been sturdy there, but vulnerable against post reliant offenses, and that’s certainly the Titans. Davis meanwhile is reliant on Manjon’s ability to breakdown on the bounce and Fuller’s ball skills in the point-forward role are a problem for the Titans, and Fullerton isn’t particularly strong on the ball defensively (or offensively for that matter, where Les’ ubiquitous ball pressure could be an issue).
  5. Stanford matches up size wise with USC, which is hard to do, and the Cardinal sort of exposed the Trojans’ PNR D, as few offenses can put two different 6’7/6’8 guys in ball screens like Stanford can. Now Stanford shooting 42% from 3 probably won’t happen again, but there are some nerves in that USC defense that the Cardinal were able to poke.

PLAYS:

A bloodbath yesterday for pregame picks, with some horrific end game luck mixed in with some real duds on my end. But that’s what happens in a long season (especially in the dog days of late January). Nothing to do but move on, and thankfully some live bets and lineup based plays paid off (reminder for those interested, you can always find those on twitter @jorcubsdan, in a thread under the pinned tweet for this post).

Posted this AM: Gonzaga -28, WKU +3.5

Hostra -2.5

191-172-5

1/26/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

26 Jan

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1/25/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

25 Jan

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1/24/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

24 Jan

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1/22/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

22 Jan

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1/21/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

21 Jan

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1/20/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

20 Jan

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