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Archive | December, 2021
12/30/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/29/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/28/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/25/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
24 Dec- South Florida finally found some offense to pair with their stout defense, as Murphy and Greene were able to bully the undersized Hawaii backcourt en route to just their second game eclipsing 1 PPP. Murphy and Greene will have to no such size advantage against Wyoming, whose smallest rotation member is 6’5. Maldonado and DuSell aren’t like exceptional defenders in ball screens, but they’re massive, and Wenzel has come on as a legitimate 3 and D option, where he’s actually be Linder’s best overall defender- penetration and points in the paint won’t come easy for the Bulls here. Offensively, Linder has all but abandoned the spread PNR attack he was synonymous with an Northern Colorado, as this team is built around Ike in the post and Maldonado weak side clear out/back downs. USF got Tchewa back, but he was only able to log 5 minutes. Gregory will need his size against Ike, but McCreary has been an exceptional post defender as well. Chaplin is the most likely to be assigned to Maldonado, as Boggs has the size but not the lateral quickness to deal with with him. USF has the deeper bench for this 3rd game, but Wyoming is just far more skilled offensively. Hard to see the backcourt reliant Bulls scoring enough against the size of Wyoming to reward their strong defense that matches up decently with the Pokes. 60 points is likely enough to win this game. Low possession get away clunker makes me lean USF.
- Hawaii will be more than happy to jack up the 3 ball against Northern Iowa’s pack line, something Wyoming did 41 times and Liberty 31, and that’s not likely a good thing. The Bows shoot the 3 at a top 100 rate, as Coleman, Madut, and Hepa can all stroke it, and the latter two with size. However, Hawaii would be wise to force UNI to defend in ball screens/PNR, as they’ve been consistently worked in that regard, and Coleman could continue his stellar run in this tournament doing so. Of course it’s hard to run PNR against a pack line, and Hawaii was ground to a halt against Vandy’s super compact brick wall defense in the first game of the tournament, and only functioned because Coleman hit 6 threes. You’d think Green is due for an AJ Green game for UNI, but not sure what to expect from him physically, as he’s really testing those hips with 3 games in 4 days. Phyfe seems to be healthy finally, and he’s had stretches of dominance (and maddening decision making out of the post) and he’ll have a plus matchup against a Hawaii team currently missing their frontcourt with Colina and da Silva out, but he also falls into the “what’s left in the tank” quandary after his bout with covid. The versatility of Carter is a problem for Hawaii (namely Desrosiers), and he’s been UNI’s best player this tournament (along with Heise). A lot of UNI’s wounds against Wyoming were self-inflicted or caused by the Pokes’ size on the perimeter- Hawaii doesn’t really present the same challenges. If Hawaii settles into a jump shot first offense like UNI wants, they’re unlikely to win this game. UPDATE THIS GAME HAS BEEN CANCELLED
- BYU has been getting killed by turnovers in this tournament, coughing it up 35 times in 131 Diamond Head possessions, and Liberty’s packline is pretty aggressive on the ball and in their help on dribble penetration. Really, BYU’s offense has only been kept afloat by dominating the O glass this tournament (McKay’s teams are typically STELLAR on the D glass, but this one is pretty middle of the pack, so something to watch in an empty tank game). The Cougars keep struggling against compact defenses that hold dribble penetration denial as a core principle (Cleveland St, SDSU, USF and Vandy this tournament). Barcello can shoot it of course, but when you turn him into strictly a jump shooter, BYU’s offense becomes one dimensional (and Liberty is a top 20 defense in Haslam’s near shot proximity FG% allowed, allow the Cougars have the 30th lowest rim rate in the country offensively). No one on BYU could stay in front of Pippen, and they’ll have the same issue with human fireball McGhee, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Pope try to frustrate him with Knight’s size at times. Offensively, everything revolves around McGhee for Liberty of course, he has the highest shot rate and 5th highest usage rate in the country for a reason- he’s a ridiculous basketball player. Liberty cuts off the ball at a top 75 rate nationally when defenses load up on the ball/McGhee, and BYU has been lost on the backdoor stuff all year, surrendering 1.4 PPP on cuts, per Synergy. No one has been hitting jump shots against BYU (25.5% from 3, the 11th lowest mark in the country, although some of that is schematic and not just luck, as George, Knight, Lohner all contest the perimeter really well), but Liberty will test that, firing the 3 at the 3rd highest rate in the country. Would lean Liberty here.
- I noted Vanderbilt’s defense was legit, mostly thanks to Millora-Brown swallowing every penetration attempt this tournament. The Dores allow the 15th farthest shot proximity and QMB isn’t allowing much when teams do get the ball inside. Stanford meanwhile is a top 60 rim rate offense, but they beat Liberty with the 3 ball, going 12-20 from deep. That’s unsustainable for Stanford, but it should be noted this team can shoot it. They’ve hit double digit threes in 3 games already this year after not accomplishing that feat in a single game last season. Huge positional size advantage for Stanford, as their best ball screen defenders against Pippen are 6’8 Ingram and 6’7 Jones. Stanford has a decent advantage on the O glass here as well (potential absence of Mann again plays a key role there). A couple of different bounces and Stanford could be playing Hawaii to salvage a win instead of playing for the trophy, but Vandy has struggled with far worse teams that can throw a lot of perimeter length at Pippen and Wright (see the dreadful loss to Temple), but we’ll see if Stanford can keep up the hot shooting, because they’ll likely need it. I’ll likely be playing Stanford, but want to see if it gets up to 2.5/3.
12/23/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/22/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/21/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/20/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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12/19/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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Staring at the Floorboards 
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