NCAA TOURNAMENT: CHAMPIONSHIP NEWS AND NOTES

Let’s dive right in…

UCONN BACKCOURT vs SAN DIEGO STATE BACKCOURT

Definite size advantage for the Huskies over the Aztecs, as UConn typically runs with 6’5 being their smallest backcourt member (with the exception of Joey California when he’s out there), while SDSU is much smaller with Trammell at a generous 5’10 and Butler at 6’2, but the Aztec backcourt is more adept defensively, especially pressuring the ball, where Butler in particular is elite. This is probably the single area SDSU can really shift the narrative away from “total UConn dominance”, as the Huskies aren’t immune from turnovers and being susceptible to ball pressure (Newton has been mostly exceptional on the ball, but he does carry a not insignificant turnover risk, and he grades out in just the 17th percentile in terms of offensive efficiency vs pressure), and they scored in just the 48th percentile in press offense per Synergy. We’ve seen SDSU impose their will defensively in the 2H in every game this tournament, and it often begins with their ball pressure (93rd percentile in press rate with an 88th percentile defensive efficiency rating, per Synergy data). UConn’s backcourt however is much more adept at actually scoring with efficiency, and being forced to chase Hawkins off all those staggers (where he’s one of the top 5 scorers in the country in off ball screens) often negates a lot of that pressure. To wit, SDSU has defended off ball screens in the 91st percentile but grades out in just the 30th percentile in terms of PPP allowed off that action, and we saw FAU really create space for their shooters doing just that (although SDSU mostly stopped playing below the level of the screen in the 2H, and the 3PT shooting dried up for the Owls). Offensively, Trammell and Butler are streaky at best and more potent with their dribble and midrange games, but both are solid with the basketball, and it’s incredibly likely the Aztecs win the turnover battle. The x-factors are obviously reside on the wing with Matt Bradley and Andre Jackson. Bradley had really struggled with iso and midrange heavy game, but got some jump shots to fall early against FAU and was by far playing with the most confidence he’s had all tournament. He’s SDSU’s most transcendent scorer, and Dutcher absolutely needs him to be hitting his sometimes often headscratching shot selections at a high rate. Jackson meanwhile is a problem for SDSU. The natural inclination of every defense UConn sees is to sag off him and disrespect his shot, but it places a huge burden on the rest of the defense when you stick your worst defender on him, as he’s elite at cutting off the ball and is an outstanding playmaker on the ball. The good news for the Aztecs is that they don’t really have a “worst defender” that they have to hide like Miami and Gonzaga before them. Jackson’s defense is also a plus here, particularly matching up against Bradley. Depth in the backcourt tilts to UConn as well, as they survived Jackson’s early foul trouble and the ubiquitous Hurley autobench with Calcaterra and Alleyne providing more than quality minutes on both ends (although the overall team defense is a concern with Calcaterra on the floor, especially with Karaban). SDSU meanwhile essentially only has Parrish and Seiko, both of whom can space the floor, (always an issue with the Aztecs), but both aren’t particularly trusted defensively in a defense forward program.

UCONN FRONTCOURT vs SAN DIEGO STATE FRONTCOURT

Offensively, this is a massive edge for UConn. Sanogo has dominated this tournament with his expanding offensive repertoire, and doubling him like Gonzaga did in the 1H only led to 6 assists and Hurley moving him to the top of the key to initiate offense. And while it’s likely not something Hurley wants to see often, ignoring him off the high ball screen like Miami did led to two early threes, so it’s not a total disrespect situation there either. SDSU can of course counter defensively with Mensah, one of the elite defensive 5s in the country with his dominant rim defense and ability to work in any form of PNR coverage. Sanogo has the clear edge as an offensive threat in this matchup, but he hasn’t faced any 5 this tournament with anywhere near the defensive chops of Mensah. The matchup itself is most similar to Sanogo’s battles with Kalkbrenner in the way Dutcher prefers to drop him, but Mensah is a far more accomplished switch big and hedge defender. SDSU also has the best overall defender on the floor in Arop, who can switch 1-5 and provide the most versatile help defense in the entire country. The dichotomy of Karaban’s offense forward game and floor stretching in comparison to the defense of Arop and Johnson is the most glaring difference in any matchup this game. Arop actually had his best offensive game of the tournament against the undersized FAU options at the 4, but he and Johnson are both generally unlikely sources of offense- for SDSU to actually win this game, this one of the few exploitable matchups they have. The battle of the bench 5s is an intriguing x-factor angle, as SDSU scores at 1.08 PPP when Ledee is on the floor over Mensah, but the defense and general institutional knowledge of what SDSU is trying to accomplish on the floor takes a major hit. Could Dutch play Mensah and Ledee together to exploit Karaban more fully? He did some versus Creighton, and it’s an option worth exploring given the offensive limitations of Johnson and Arop, as you’re already sacrificing any semblance of spacing in either scenario (although of course Ledee’s defense and often painful to watch decision making really gets called into question). Hurley’s option at the 5 off the bench is completely unfair, as Clingan is an absolute monster at the rim defensively, and his footwork offensively and ability to play in PNR has improved rapidly. On/off efficiency splits have their limitations, but UConn has held opponents to just .82 PPP when Clingan is on the floor. Rebounding here is pretty equal really. SDSU dominated the offensive glass in the 2H vs FAU, but that’s far less likely to happen against UConn (although the much smaller Canes were surprisingly effective in that regard). The Huskies meanwhile are an elite offensive rebounding team (2nd in OREB% nationally per KenPom), but SDSU is solid on the D glass.

UCONN OFFENSE vs SAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE

UConn runs by far the better set action, as they have one of the best run playbooks in the country overall (we saw that on full display on that hammer set to end the half against Miami). UConn’s actions are varied and complicated, and it’s an advantage to have that in their arsenal on short prep, but SDSU is elite at mixing up their coverages. Dutcher prefers to drop Mensah, but as noted earlier, he’s an effective switch big and his mobility can really negate all the duck-in and slips UConn runs for Sanogo. As noted earlier as well, UConn’s turnover issues aren’t a minor thing (and it marginally let Miami back in the game for a short stretch last night), especially against the elite SDSU ball pressure, but all of the screening action they run can really mitigate that if they’re moving the ball effectively and not relying on the dribble, which they typically don’t (247th in off the dribble jump shot creation compared to a top 50 catch and shoot rate per ShotQuality data). SDSU’s pressure and physicality have changed the game in the 2H repeatedly this tournament (and they’ve eaten up and spit out 3PT reliant offenses all year, as @elihershkovich noted they’re now 8-0 against offenses with a 44% 3PTA rate or higher, UConn is at 42% fwiw), but UConn’s offensive structure is mostly unlike anything they’ve seen, and on short prep (fwiw, UConn is 6-2 ATS on one day rest since 2020, while SDSU is 9-8 during the same time frame). The converse is true too however, as SDSU’s length and elite switchability, particularly with Arop, hasn’t been something Miami or Gonzaga were able to do effectively.

SAN DIEGO STATE OFFENSE vs UCONN DEFENSE

SDSU runs a far, far less diversified playbook, and with far worse spacing given the offensive limitations of their frontcourt and their overreliance on the midrange. UConn drops Sanogo and Clingan a good deal, which has been aiding and abetting SDSU’s midrange reliance for better or worse all tournament (no team has faced more drop coverage than the Aztecs, especially over the last 3 games). That said, FAU’s switch was successful for most of the game, even with lesser defenders and far less size than what UConn will bring to the court in that scenario. Basically, SDSU will be creating iso and midrange looks against bigger, better defenders Monday night. I noted the exploitable matchup with Karaban, but Ledee’s consistency is shaky at best in that regard and you lose defense in that scenario, while Arop and Johnson don’t seem quite equipped enough to truly make it a game changing angle for the Tecs.

SCHEMATIC ANGLES

SDSU vs UConn should be a pretty physical game as both teams rely on physical defense to impose their will. SDSU has gotten to the championship based on being able to control second halves with their defense, combined with hitting enough shots. UConn has been dominant on both sides of the ball.

                The first thing that stands out for the SDSU offense is mid-range shooting. SDSU takes the 23^rd most mid-range jumpers in the country, while UConn allows the 40^th most mid-range shots. With Sanogo and Clingan, UConn is going to primarily play drop coverage, something that induces opponents into taking mid-range shots. SDSU will go to pick and rolls a good amount, especially out of horns sets. If the big is not involved in the action, FAU had a ton of success switching everything and forcing tough shots. I think UConn can do that too, but instead of switching 6’2-6’4 guards, they are now switching 6’5-6’8 wings, something that can cause some issues for SDSU. It is simple analysis, but it feels the only way SDSU has a shot is by hitting tough shots. In addition to horns sets, SDSU will also use Chicago action (pindown into a DHO) a good bit. They are really good at getting it to Bradley or Trammell going to their strong hands. With Sanogo/Clingan, UConn would most likely be in drop. This again opens up mid-range jumpers, but SDSU has not been the most efficient at them. One area that SDSU is good at off of this is being able to hit cutters. They are in the 71^st percentile for cuts, while UConn’s defense is only in the 39^th percentile. If Trammell/Butler/Bradley can hit the bigs and wings on cuts, this should be a better way for them to generate rim attempts in the half court.

                The other side of the ball will be very interesting. I think SDSU matches up fairly well on defense because they have multiple wings/bigs that are not only mobile, but strong as well. They have at least a better chance of hanging with Sanogo down low, but UConn does a tremendous job scheming him and the rest of the offense shots. UConn utilizes staggered screens a ton, allowing their shooters to come flying off while Sanogo/Clingan roll to the rim. It is a lot of action in a short period of time. Jackson is the only non-shooter on the starting lineup, but UConn uses him as someone that can attack the rim and facilitate. SDSU has been an elite perimeter defense all season though. They have multiple guys with good length and mobility that can extend to the perimeter on kickouts to contest. An interesting tid bit is SDSU forces the 12^th most contested catch and shoot 3s, while UConn takes the 18^th most open catch and shoot 3s. One of those will probably have to fold. UConn is also elite at running their high-low action to get Sanogo duck ins down low. Sanogo was able to seal Miami off multiple times for easy buckets. SDSU might not try and front though, relying more on their physicality to try and disrupt Sanogo. When it comes to pick and rolls, SDSU plays primarily drop. They went under a ton against FAU, but they got burned. If they go under against UConn, it will be because they are very concerned about Sanogo and Clingan down low. UConn will probably counter this with getting Sanogo on slips or allowing one of their multiple tough shot makers to really get going.

                Two other things I will monitor are rebounds and officials (unfortunately). UConn has been elite on the glass, while SDSU has been solid. Will SDSU send two guys on Sanogo and Clingan to try and limit offensive rebounds? SDSU got back into the game against FAU largely because of their offensive rebounding. I hate talking about refs, but with how physical both teams play, I think it needs to be brought up. They should let some of the little stuff go, which probably slightly benefits SDSU. SDSU does have a true 9 man rotation, so they could deal with foul trouble a bit more than UConn. – Joe Jackson (@Joe_Jackson2210)

UConn vs SDSU is not the final any of us expected, but it has a lot of intrigue on the schematic end. The big thing to watch is how SDSU guards UConn’s off-ball screening actions. The Aztecs have shown a lot of willingness to mix up their defensive strategy as needed and it will the major focus for their staff as they prepare. Expect a lot of switching with the off-ball actions, but SDSU will probably do whatever they can to keep Nathan Mensah or Jaedon LeDee on UConn’s bigs, but they will probably switch just about everyone else around on most of UConn’s more complex offensive actions. It will be interesting to see if UConn’s shooters like Jordan Hawkins, Alex Karaban, and Joey Calcaterra can shoot effectively against SDSU’s three-point defense. FAU built their huge lead by exploiting SDSU from deep, defying the Aztecs’ usually elite three-point defense.SDSU’s statistical opponent three-point shooting seems flukey and FAU made it look that way, but UConn will need to do the same if they want another comfortable win in this one. It is a huge key for SDSU to really blow up UConn’s actions and try and force them to run a high-volume of pick-and-roll with Tristen Newton. Newton was able to get the ball to the bigs in the short-roll against Miami’s hard-hedge, but SDSU’s length and athleticism is going to make those pocket passes harder and Newton struggles to dribble through or around traps like that. SDSU is also one of the best teams at plugging the floor and, even though Andre Jackson has gotten better at existing when helped off of, the Aztecs will be able to play to their strength by leaving Jackson open in the corner. On the other end, SDSU is almost admirable in their confidence in running one set repeatedly. They ran more zoom exit plays against FAU than I have ever seen one team run a single action and it was a part of their comeback. They don’t really have the personnel to make that play work at its highest levels, but it does tend to clear a side well for their isolations sets and players like Darion Trammel and Lamont Butler are solid at making advantaged reads out of that set. The possession battle is the obvious game within a game to monitor here. UConn and SDSU are both elite offensive rebounding teams who have put teams away with their ability to dominate on the boards. UConn is definitely the better offensive rebounding team, both statistically and because of their depth of elite offensive rebounders, but SDSU sets themselves up for more rebounds with their offensive sets and they could absolutely outrebound the Huskies for this one-game stretch. I doubt either team can effectively keep the other off the offensive boards, but that is a major key here. The turnover battle seems like it will point comfortably to the Aztecs here and that is the aspect of the game that they will need to win to keep this game close. SDSU is elite at forcing turnovers on the ball and it is UConn is a team that is susceptible to that because of their lack of high-level ball-handling. If SDSU can limit UConn’s offensive possessions and force some live-dribble turnovers, then they could be the first team in the tournament to give UConn a real run. – Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14)