CUSA 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. UAB

WHAT I LIKE: Jelly Walker. Walker is as good as it gets on the ball at a national level as a legit 3 level scorer with in the gym range. Walker is basically everything you want in a PG, from on court play to tone setting mentality. Walker dominated the league in his first CUSA season, pairing the highest shot rate and 2nd highest usage rate with a top 20 efficiency rating, hitting 40% of his threes, 90% of his FTs, and logging the league’s 3rd highest assist rate. Stud. Then Andy Kennedy went out and added Eric Gaines, another explosive on ball rim runner, making UAB’s backcourt virtually unguardable- no team in the league has two lock down perimeter defenders. Kennedy restocked the wing corps as well with LD and Ty Brewer transferring in from ETSU. Both were born to play in Kennedy’s frenetic pressure that prioritizes rangy, quick twitch athletes. LD is the scorer of the two and can score at all 3 levels, while Ty is switchable defender who can legitimately defend 1-5. Binghamton transfer Tyler Bertram will attempt to replace Michael Ertel’s spot shooting while Tavin Lovan will once again reprise his role as a “slash and D” wing and veteran glue guy. While frosh Butta Johnson might have trouble finding minutes this year, he’s yet another long Kennedy wing who can score at the rim and perimeter. The frontcourt remains intact as well, with Trey Jemison at the 5 and KJ Buffen the 4. With Walker dominating the offense, Jemison became almost a strictly blocks and boards big, which is perfect, as his offensive efficiency improved dramatically in the process of seeing his usage and shot rates decline. Buffen similarly knows his role as well offensively, putbacks and tip-ins, but he’s an extremely efficient rim option when need be (and he did carry the offense for stretches last year).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While UAB could certainly score at 1.13 PPP in league play again (by far the best mark in CUSA), ShotQuality suggests some hidden issues. The Blazers are a downhill team, no question, but they actually didn’t get to the rim that often, finishing with the 12th highest rim rate in the league (although they were the most efficient when they did get there). UAB’s shot selection was also lower middle of the CUSA pack, but again, Walker’s incredible shot making made up for it. UAB also produced the league’s lowest open 3 rate and by far the lowest unguarded jump shot rate, yet made nearly 40% of their triples (again, the Walker Effect). Walker is an unbelievable player, no doubt about it, but is it sustainable is the question. Obviously the addition of a guy like Gaines takes a lot of pressure off when teams swarm him, but a repeat gangbusters offensive performance from UAB as a whole is far from a given. There’s also the question of who replaces Quan Jackson as the head of the snake in Kennedy’s zone pressure (2nd highest press rate in the league). UAB often flipped a switch in the 2H with their pressure, and Jackson of course was at the heart of that. The Brewers, especially Ty, are capable of filling that role, and Lovan certainly knows how to orchestra Kennedy’s zone pressure, but Jackson was such a unique defender in that role. The defending champs are the team to beat until further notice, but there are some noticeable holes here.

2. WESTERN KENTUCKY

WHAT I LIKE: Stanz gonna Stanz, and the Hilltoppers just reloaded in a huge way. Let’s start with a quick rundown of the talent added: former 4 star Kentucky wing Dontaie Allen who could be the league’s best 3 and D, 6’8 Emmanuel Akot shot nearly 40% from 3 at Boise St with ball skills and can defend 1-4, former 5 star Indiana PG Khris Lander whose physical development has held him back, and former Stansbury recruit Jordan Rawls, a scoring PG. Stansbury also effectively mined the JUCO ranks again for do it all wing Tyrone Marshall (23rd ranked JUCO) and stretch shooter Fallou Diagne. That’s all in addition to returning what would be the best PG in the league in Dayvion McKnight if Jelly Walker didn’t still attend UAB, 7’5 human Space Needle Jamarion Sharp at the rim, and the league’s best spot shooter in Luke Frampton who hit nearly 50% of his league triples en route to the best efficiency rating in CUSA. Plus Jairus Hamilton returns, although I’m not sure where his minutes are going to come from now. Thanks to McKnight, WKU was one of the league’s most prolific and efficient PNR offenses, and despite ranking 10th in CUSA in ShotQuality’s shot selection metric and producing the league’s lowest open 3 rate, the Hilltoppers still canned 39% from deep. Akot and Allen should help immensely with those issues. WKU could easily be the best offense in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: WKU zoned at a 40% rate, nearly triple the rate of anyone else in the league, but CUSA is a top 10 shooting league, and the 2-3 designed to protect Sharp from fouls ultimately led to surrendering 1.02 PPP in league play- a bottom tier CUSA defense. With the versatility of Akot and Allen you’d love to see some more switching man to man, which would also remedy the poor defensive rebounding that plagued WKU and drastically reduce the league’s highest (by far) unguarded catch and shoot rate allowed (per Synergy). It’s just typically not a good idea to allow opposing offenses to have 14 unguarded jump shots a game (UTSA allowed the 2nd most per game at 10, for reference). Lastly, there’s the uncomfortable truth that talent on the court hasn’t always been reciprocated on the clipboard in Bowling Green.

3. NORTH TEXAS

WHAT I LIKE: The return of Grant McCasland and Tylor Perry. In early spring it seemed like a foregone conclusion that McCasland was headed to SMU and clutch ball screen wizard Perry would in turn exit as well- so it seems like a bit of miracle both are still in Denton, which means the Mean Green should once again be a tier 1 CUSA entry. Having a lead guard that totally dictates the terms of the game is the cornerstone of McCasland’s offense, and Perry was 4th in CUSA ORtg, shooting 41% from 3 and dishing out assists at the 4th highest rate. UNT is the epitome of possession control, as they played at the slowest pace in the entire country (Virginia was the only other team south of 60 possessions) with the highest APL, clocking in at just over 21 seconds per offensive possession. Perry’s offensive cast around him should keep UNT in the top tier of offensive efficiency, especially if Rubin Jones returns around December as expected. Jones’ shooting and spacing is a must (especially from the FT line where UNT was dead last in CUSA play despite leading the league in 3PT%), and he can spell Perry on the ball as well. North Dakota St transfer Tyree Eady is perfect McCasland wing, capable of taking the ball screen and can shoot it from 3, while defending 1-3 on the other end. McCasland brought in D2 scorer Kai Huntsberry for some additional scoring punch as well. UNT led the league in post rate last season (which took some doing with Junior Lofton in the league), and the Mean Green return Abou Ousmane at the 5, so that likely continues. Ousmane showed a much more refined post arsenal last year, and should provide even more consistent offense at the rim this season (as well as his lock down post defense where he allowed just .52 PPP per Synergy). New Hampshire deadeye floor stretcher Jayden Martinez was perhaps the biggest offseason addition for McCasland, as he needed someone to replace Thomas Bell’s production. Aaron Scott flashed a lot of potential as small ball 4 last year, and has elite defensive instincts.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: It’s odd to say this about a McCasland team, but I have more concerns about the defense than I do the offense. McCasland runs one of the elite no middle coverages in the entire country (22nd nationally in defensive efficiency margin per KenPom), and the Mean Green were heads and shoulders above the rest of the league defensively, allowing just .92 PPP. That said, McCasland has to replace arguably the two best pound for pound defenders in the league, and their opponents shot 4% lower from than expected per ShotQuality (although to counter that, UNT allowed a top 20 lowest open 3 rate nationally). UNT will always have an incredibly safe floor in CUSA play given McCasland’s scheme on both ends and just general x’s and o’s nuances, and a scenario where they once again end up atop the league is well within the realm of possibility.

4. FLORIDA ATLANTIC

WHAT I LIKE: Dusty May’s days in sunny Boca Raton are likely numbered, in a good way. FAU is a CUSA program on the rise, and May clearly is the reason why. The Owls were a top half offense and defense in the league, and suffered some bad defensive shooting luck all over the floor per ShotQuality, with an expected CUSA record of 13-5, which doesn’t include what SQ deemed an analytical win over UAB in the CUSA tourney (insert eyes emoji). The Owls essentially return everyone from last season, and are particularly loaded in the backcourt with Michael Forrest, Alijah Martin, BJ Greenlee, and Johnell Davis being joined by Nicholas Boyd and UConn transfer Jalen Gaffney. All but Martin and Davis can play on the ball, all can shoot, and all defend on the ball well, particularly Martin, Davis, and Gaffney. Per SQ, FAU was top 4 in shot selection, shot making, and spacing, but were bogged down by the 13th highest TO rate. With so many ball handling options at May’s disposal, that 20% rate should decrease, and the Owls’ efficiency will subsequently increase. Vlad Goldin and Giancarlo Rosado form a thunder and lightning duo in the frontcourt, with the former an imposing shot blocking presence at the rim (2nd in block rate) and the latter having a more fluid offensive skill set. FAU’s defense was particularly solid at taking away catch and shoots with their stable of guards/wings extended on the perimeter, willing to goad the dribble drive into Goldin. JUCO import Isaiah Gaines brings some needed athleticism and depth to the frontcourt as well.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: I noted the inordinately high TO rate for such a guard oriented team, and they were often hurt on the O glass with so many small ball/4 out lineups.

5. MIDDLE TENNESSEE

WHAT I LIKE: Slow clap for Nick McDevitt. I tabbed the Blue Raiders for last place at this time last year, but his extremely versatile and athletic roster pressed their way (33% press rate allowing .78 PPP per Synergy and creating a 21% TO rate, best in the league) to an incredible 13-5 league mark, and 10 game CUSA improvement from the season prior. They also coulda should woulda knocked off eventual champ UAB in the CUSA tourney, losing a heartbreaking 3OT slugfest. The Blue Raiders lose their two highest volume scoring threats, but have the most athleticism top to bottom in the league. No one highlights that athleticism better than Teafale Lenard, a legit 1-5 defensive menace and a total wrecking ball in the pressure schemes. Lenard’s offensive game lacked polish outside of thunderous dunks, but he was just a frosh. MTSU’s offensive ceiling is strongly tethered to his development. I mentioned the offensive productivity lost in the backcourt, but a duo of Cam Weston and Jalen Jordan can replicate that in McDevitt’s spead and attack system that produced ShotQuality’s 2nd highest rim and 3 rate in league play. Weston is a penetrating rim runner on the ball with outstanding athleticism for his position, while a presumably healthy Jordan is one of the league’s best shooters. High scoring combo guard Jestin Porter (JUCO import) should see immediate run as well. The 3/4 situation (highlighted by Lenard) is comprised of long, athletic interchangeable parts like Eli Lawrence, Justin Bufford, Tyler Millin, and Elias King. The first 3 provide legit shooting, while King surprised offensively in MTSU’s CBI run. The 5 spot follows the same interchangeability and athleticism motif with DeAndre Dishman a skilled offensive threat as a small ball center capable of getting out on the perimeter on both ends. Chris Fussell has some offensive upside with his skill set/height combo, while the return of Jared Coleman-Jones to health gives McDevitt a more traditional back to the basket option.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite being a largely 4 to 5 out squad, spacing and shot making were issues for MTSU, and Weston on the ball nearly full time isn’t the same shooter as Jefferson or Sims (although Jordan’s return helps there tremendously, assuming he’s healthy). The structure of McDevitt’s roster also prevents rebounding from being a strong suit, and that’s unlikely to change.

6. LOUISIANA TECH

WHAT I LIKE: New era for the Dunkin’ Dawgs, as both Eric Konkol and Junior Lofton exit Ruston. Konkol brought a high floor to LA Tech during his 7 seasons, but former associate head coach Talvin Hester should be a more than capable hire. Hester spent 3 years on Konkol’s staff, but has worked with Kelvin Sampson and Mark Adams at Texas Tech last year- his coaching pedigree is quite impressive. Replacing Lofton is far more difficult, given he morphed into one of the best bigs in league history. This year’s Dawgs will be far more perimeter oriented with the return of PG Cobe Williams (an athletic freak and one of the toughest players in the league despite his stature), Keaston Willis (a legit three level scorer who was relegated to mostly spot shooting last year), Kaleb Stewart (a breakout candidate as a high scoring combo guard), and an incredibly deep and athletic wing corps highlighted by the return of Isaiah Crawford. Crawford’s early knee injury was a devastating blow for LA Tech and capped their ceiling, but he’ll be the focal point of what should be one of the best defenses in the league given Hester’s pedigree and the strengths of this roster. Crawford can switch 1-4, and the athleticism of LaDamien Bradford and Terran Williams should all LA Tech to rival UNT in terms of the best no middle scheme in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Replacing Lofton’s offensive prowess on the block just isn’t going to happen, and I’m sure Hester has already accepted that. What’s somewhat overlooked in Lofton’s departure is his defense, where he allowed just .68 PPP as a post defender (per Synergy), en route to LA Tech enjoying the league’s best 2PT% D. Of course Lofton’s league leading defensive rebounding rate and 5th highest offensive rebounding rate are gone as well. Kenny Hunter and Pierre Geneste are long armed rim protectors, but will provide little offensively. David Green is the opposite as a finesse 4, so that leaves a lot on Radford transfer Dravon Mangum’s plate. Mangum’s a skilled offensive threat (who started his career in the CUSA at Charlotte), but has never been known as a blocks and boards big. Hester is ultimately going to have to play a lot of offense-defense sub patterns with this unit.

7. RICE

WHAT I LIKE: The offense. Scott Pera’s modified Princeton motion produced the most efficient halfcourt offense in the league, and point-center fulcrum Max Fiedler returns to man the middle, as does PG Travis Evee, one of the league’s best shooters, and most importantly a healthy Quincy Olivari is back. Olivari led CUSA in shot rate two seasons ago, and rebounds his position absurdly well in Pera’s small ball look. Speaking of small ball, Pera added some much needed strength to the frontcourt with Kansas State 4 Seryee Lewis, who comes in off his own knee injury issues.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense. This unit is essentially the polar opposite of the highly skilled offense, where the finesse on that end is a burden on this end. The Owls were 12th in halfcourt defensive efficiency in CUSA play, and were particularly smacked in PNR where Fiedler is a liability and at the rim. Not coincidentally, rebounding was a weakness for the Owls as well. This issues seems endemic to the program under Pera, and the personnel doesn’t suggest any significant progress to be made regarding these concerns.

8. UTEP

WHAT I LIKE: Joe Golding has to replace a LOT of scoring from his first season in El Paso, but Evansville’s Shamar Givance was a massive portal addition. Givance immediately becomes one of the best PGs in the league, and his dip in shooting/efficiency can be forgiven after playing on one of the worst teams in the country. Givance finished no worse than 3rd in assist rate in all 4 of his Missouri Valley seasons, and if you’re going to be a Golding PG, you have to defend on the ball like a bulldog, which Givance brings. Givance draws an absurd amount of contact and is a typically capable perimeter shooter. Like Givance, the rest of Golding’s backcourt rotation is comprised of portal additions. Tae Hardy has shown flashes of elite scoring at previous stops (including Southern Miss most recently), and like Givance, is a ballhawk defensively- a must in Golding’s extreme perimeter denial defense that pushes every ball screen to the side and produced the 2nd highest TO rate in the league. Rio McKinney is more legend than reality at this point, but the potential, ball handling, and leaping ability are always intriguing at the PG spot. Malik Zachery brings a lot of baggage with him after a year in the JUCO ranks, but he’s arguably the best pure PG on the roster- so Golding has a significant amount of depth and capability on the ball, similar to his last season at Abilene Christian. Golding’s wing corps is steeped in athleticism, and has the potential to be a real problem in CUSA play. Jamari Sibley is arguably the most inherently talented player in the entire league, while Otis Frazier and Calvin Solomon come in from George Mason and SFA. Solomon is a guy Golding had coveted since he was a Southland foe, and a new assistant brought him to El Paso. Solomon will have an immediate impact as a guy who can defend 1-4, handle the ball, score at the rim, and hit jump shots. He’s a less talented but fully realized Sibley. This backcourt/wing group can be one of the best in the league if you a few guys start approaching their ceiling (McKinney, Zachery, Frazier, Sibley) and established presences like Givance, Hardy, and Solomon mesh.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Golding’s denial defense produced the 2nd highest TO rate, denied PNR, and practically erased the 3PT line, it was shredded on the back end to the tune of 1.12 PPP at the highest rim rate allowed in the league (per ShotQuality). Additionally, the Miners were dead last in rebounding rate on both ends of the court. Those severe frontcourt deficiencies weren’t really addressed by Golding in the offseason. Former Loyola Marymount tweener Jonathan Dos Anos isn’t a blocks and boards guy by any stretch, and mountainous Derick Hamilton is going to have trouble staying on the floor at this level. Kevin Kalu recorded a single block last season and it wasn’t in a D1 game. Ze’Rik Onyema is Golding’s best bet in the frontcourt on both ends, but he was whistled for nearly 10 fouls per 40 minutes last year. One more note about the offense, Givance is an elite ball screen creator, especially going downhill in middle, which isn’t really a part of the Golding playbook offensively. There are some stylistic concerns with this roster composition, and I can see teamwide coherency being an issue on the offensive end.

9. FIU

WHAT I LIKE: The portal/freshman class. Jeremy Ballard’s offense produced the 4th highest rim and 3 rate in the entire country, using a spread PNR attack (highest PNR rate in the league) to almost exclusively attack the rim or shoot the 3 off a kick out (highest catch and shoot rate in CUSA, per ShotQuality). Replacing Tevin Brewer and his league leading assist rate is the first order of business, and it’s not immediately clear if there’s going to be an alpha ballhandler, as a committee seems more appropriate at this stage. Denver Jones can certainly play the point, but it’s not preferred. His ball screen efficiency was below average last year, and it would limit his productivity as arguably the league’s most efficient slasher (6th highest FT rate while hitting 91% from the stripe, per KenPom). Javaunte Hawkins is a possibility here as well, but like Jones, his shooting came more off the ball. Fortunately Ballard mined the Putnam Academy in Connecticut again and brought in Arturo Dean to potentially wrest PG duties from day 1. Dean is very much in the Brewer mold as a skittering lightning bolt on the ball, and his Putnam teammate Day Day Gittens is also an option at the point as well. Ballard plucked two likely starters from the America East, with Hartford’s Austin Williams a potentially bigger PG option as a legit 3 level scorer, which would in turn form a deadly slashing duo with Jones. New Hampshire’s Nick Guadarrama will thrive in Ballard’s PNR heavy offense as a frequent pick and pop recipient as a small ball 4 (small in height relatively at 6’5, but he’s been lovingly known as “Thicc Nick” on this site). Guadarrama can handle the ball despite his wide frame, and is a perfect fit in this offense with his ability to score at the rim and behind the arc. John Williams, a high scoring D2 wing, and 6’6 Jayden Brewer out of Ben Davis round out an impressive and deep backcourt/wing portal/frosh class for Ballard.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While Ballard’s commitment to the analytical rim and 3 dream is impressive, it wasn’t efficient last year. FIU was 12th in rim efficiency in CUSA play and shot a middling 34% from 3, and those numbers were with Brewer spearheading the offense. Defensively, FIU produced a middling TO rate despite pressing at the 3rd highest rate in the league, and they couldn’t defend off the ball, getting gashed off screens and cuts. The Panthers were surprisingly porous at the rim as well despite having all world shot blocker Seth Pinkney, who eventually fell out of the rotation down the stretch. Pinkney does return, but Ballard added a high motor floor runner in quick twitch 7 footer Darryon Prescott. There’s a lot of potential on this roster, but a lot of moving parts as well.

10. CHARLOTTE

WHAT I LIKE: Some progress made last year for the Niners in year 4 of the Ron Sanchez, but it seems like that was the season they should have had two years ago, and last season should have been better. Now Jahmir Young is gone, but Sanchez has a lot of long wing shooters returning for his mover-blocker system that produced 1.25 PPP off the highest cut rate in the league (4th highest in the country per ShotQuality), which led to the league’s most efficient 2PT offense. The return of a healthy Brice Williams as 6’7 floor stretching wing is key, as Young’s offensive production will be sorely missed. The new backcourt of Tarleton St PG Montre Gipson and Missouri St transfer Lu’Cye Patterson is serviceable, particularly the former, but not on nearly the same level as Young. Gipson can shoot it a little and is more than steady on the ball on both ends, while Patterson is a decent enough rim runner. Robert Braswell (3 and D), Musa Jallow (lock down defender if ever healthy) and Jackson Threadgill (spot shooter) return to the wing as well to form an upper half unit league wise. The frontcourt is perhaps the strength of the team with Aly Khalifa reprising his role as point-center (although he suffered an injury during the Puerto Rico trip, the extent of which has yet to be determined, something to keep an eye on), and the additions of USC Upstate’s Josh Aldrich and Virginia’s Igor Milicic. Aldrich can step out and shot it and is a decent enough defender, while Milicic was recruited to UVA, so that means he’s a perfect fit for Sanchez, and similar to Khalifa in his style of play.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The pack line D has been effective in precisely one season of the Sanchez era, and it was abandoned for stretches last season (but Khalifa can’t defend in ball screens regardless, and neither will Milicic). Essentially Charlotte wants to copy the Virginia or even North Texas model in their own league, but they just don’t get the stops, which of course negates a clock control offense. It should be noted ShotQuality regression data suggests Charlotte was a significantly unlucky 3PT% defense, as opponents hit 38% in league play despite the Niners allowing the lowest open 3 rate in the league. Rebounding will likely continue to be an issue, as will removing Young from the offense (and this offense was already close to last in shot making per SQ, despite having the league’s best shot selection). If Khalifa’s injury is significant, this is potentially a last place team.

11. UTSA

WHAT I LIKE: Well, things can’t get much worse from a personnel and off court standpoint for Steve Henson’s squad, so he has to feel like rock bottom was more or less reached last year, and a roster reset was much needed. Atypically for Henson teams, the frontcourt should actually be a strength for the Runners this year, with Jacob Germany returning and Kansas St transfer Carlton Linguard added from the portal. Linguard is potential pick and pop 7 footer in one of the league’s more prolific PNR offenses, so it will be interesting to see if Henson has the audacity to try to play his twin towers together. Accordingly, UTSA should once again be the best defensive rebounding team in the league, where Germany was one of the best two way rebounders.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Massive question marks dot the rest of the roster, and that’s not a good sign for the league’s most inefficient offense to make significant strides out of the cellar. The backcourt will be heavily reliant on a pair of JUCO combo guards in Japhet Medor and John Buggs to supplement Erik Czumbel, the likely incumbent PG. There’s a lot of length and versatility on the wing between Aleu Aleu, Isaiah Addo-Ankrah, and even potentially Lachlan Bofinger, but there’s almost no proven production. Last year was UTSA’s slowest tempo since Henson’s first season, and for good reason, this team’s personnel and scoring issues didn’t warrant more possessions like Henson prefers. I would assume the Runners slow it down even more with Germany and Linguard the focal points of the offense.