NCAA TOURNAMENT: CHAMPIONSHIP

1 UCONN vs 1 PURDUE (Glendale)

• This is easily the most fitting way the season could end, with the two best teams finally going head to head, featuring an all-time post battle between the most unstoppable offensive force in the country for two years in Zach Edey and the most dominant rim defender in this tournament in Donovan Clingan. Seems appropriate to start with that Edey/Clingan matchup: Clingan has allowed literally next to nothing at the rim this entire tournament (outside of a “Full Nelson rack attack” last night), and has allowed just .29 PPP on post attempts per Synergy data. Of course not many teams are going to challenge Clingan in 1v1 post offense, and he’s only defended 44 post attempts on the season (that’s the third most on his own team), and none of the post defenses have come against a 7’4 guy who is posted and reposted continually in just one trip down the floor (those reposts are key, as it forces you to be engaged as the post defender for so long, and exposes you to twice the foul potential as you attempt to body Edey). The most post attempts UConn has faced in a game this year was 14, and Purdue averages 18 post possessions a game, with an average of 21 in this tournament. As always vs Edey, fouls will be key, and we’ll see how Clingan responds to so much 1v1 post defense, something he hasn’t had to do a lot of this year. Hurley doesn’t really double the post much (why would he?), but when he has (53 total possessions), it’s been wing digs, which is actually more effective in stripping Edey when he brings the ball down, rather than with the low man. Outside of post defense, Clingan will of course be in drop coverage, and he’s the best drop 5 in the entire country because of his wingspan and ability to recover- his drop pocket zone is so much larger than most drop 5s, including Edey on the other end of the floor. Naturally the midrange is still the soft spot of the drop coverage with Clingan attempting to play 2, and Braden Smith has been very good in that pull up zone with an 87th percentile efficiency rating in that regard per Synergy data, which also happens to be the one are where UConn receives a “below average” efficiency rating on their defensive shot attempt page per Synergy (outside of unguarded catch and shoots, which is more luck based). If Clingan does get into foul trouble, UConn’s defensive structure does shift to more hard hedges with Samson Johnson manning the paint, and that’s an area Smith has improved in attacking, and Purdue always finds open threes on that rotation to the top of the key from either Loyer, Jones, or Gillis in their hard hedge offense. Purdue got away with a miserable game from Smith by his standards against NC State and their halfcourt ball pressure, but he’s typically followed poor performances with big games, and Purdue is likely going to need him to be a scorer in the midrange to win this game. Let’s assume Clingan is effectively limiting Edey in the post, then the emphasis will shift to Smith and Edey in the PNR game, and ideally moving Clingan around. Painter tends to go to the PNR to simplify the offense when the Edey posts and reposts (and screening around that action) is bogging down in the halfcourt, and Creighton actually had some success moving Clingan in the PNR game in Omaha this year (the last time UConn lost a game), and Edey has improved massively overall in the PNR game. UConn generally switches 1-4, as Hurley is mostly fine with any mismatches that creates, as it most often just leads into a Clingan funnel, but I’m sure Castle will be shadowing Smith relentlessly, which is going to be problematic for Purdue. Smith struggled against NC State’s ball pressure and being pushed off his spots, and while UConn isn’t looking to force turnovers at all, Castle has proven time and again he’s a shutdown corner, and much bigger and athletic than Smith. Like UConn, Purdue runs a lot of complex off ball and secondary actions, but as noted, UConn is comfortable switching these actions and are willing to live with any mismatches that arise (mostly with Karaban), because of Clingan at the rim. One last minor area of concern would Purdue’s ability on the offensive glass, as UConn has been a touch vulnerable there, but one of those big offensive rebounding games they allowed was the Clingan injury game in the loss to Seton Hall.
• Switching to the other end of the floor, UConn likely has more advantages offensively than Purdue. The heart and soul of UConn’s offense is their complex move and space motion actions, and Purdue has routinely been lost when navigating multiple screens and secondary actions. Hurley also won’t be afraid to post Clingan, whose usage and offensive production in general has shot up this tournament, and he’s been an absolutely lethal roll option (as well as “Slamson” Johnson) when the Huskies have turned to PNR in similar “simplification modes” to Purdue. I noted Clingan’s drop pocked and ability to play 2 is elite, and Purdue drops Edey just as much of course, but I think his contest zone is smaller. That will of course open up the midrange for UConn, which isn’t a large part of their offense at all, but something Spencer, Newton, and now Castle are fully capable of exploiting. Speaking of Castle, his offense against Alabama was a major wrench in Oats’ gameplan, and I’m sure Painter’s lookahead prep involved trying to hide Loyer on him. Opposing offenses have gameplanned around bringing Loyer into the defensive equation all year, and Hurley has experience drawing up offense for a “sag player” thanks to Andre Jackson last year. Hurley would often use him as a screener, a cutter when the sag defender helped elsewhere, and simply in iso- and that’s exactly what Castle did last night against the Tide, and to great effect. That offensive outburst was likely pivotal in the quick preparation for this game, as Castle now requires Painter’s full attention. That’s a microcosm of what makes UConn such an elite offensive, and one of the greatest teams in college basketball history, as they are unbelievable at “taking what the defense gives them”, to utilize an overused platitude. If the complex motion sets are bogging down, they’ll start PNRing you to death and everyone on the team is so elite in those slips to the rim at the right moment off that action.
• FINAL THOUGHTS: I wouldn’t be surprised if Purdue found a way to win this game, as the relentless Edey posting is something no one is fully prepared for, and can put so much pressure on Clingan early, especially to stay out of foul trouble. That said, UConn’s offensive versatility and ability to throw a bigger, elite defender on Smith to disrupt Purdue’s nonpost offense are difference makers. I have no appetite to fade UConn in any capacity, but similarly little appetite to take them as the line grows, as it’s up to 6 as I type this. A sprinkle on the Boilers outright is ultimately probably all I’ll do.