AMERICA EAST 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. VERMONT

• WHAT I LIKE: Even with the addition of Bryant to the league, the America East title runs through Burlington. John Becker lost a lot of incredibly key pieces from last year’s UVM squad that nearly wrote another Cinderella story for the program, but Bellarmine transfer Dylan Penn could immediately be the league’s best scoring option. Penn will be the centerpiece of an offense looking to transform from an elite inside-out machine led by Ryan Davis to a more on-ball, penetration reliant unit through the incoming new PG. Vermont scored at the 8th most efficient rate at the rim in the entire country last year (1.23 PPP per ShotQuality), and while Penn’s relentless rim pressure on the ball and ability to finish consistently/draw contact won’t be quite as efficient as Davis’ inside out game, the Catamounts are still going to collapse defenses with ease. Vermont’s shot selection and shot making were both top 20 per ShotQuality, and Finn Sullivan, Kam Gibson, and off ball scorer Aaron Deloney will be the primary beneficiaries of Penn’s constant lane probing (Penn himself isn’t a shooter at all).
• WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Becker’s track record of player development is well noted and celebrated for a reason, and it will really need to shine immediately in the frontcourt in Davis’ wake. Freshmen Jorge Ochoa and Perry Smith (whose development has been slowed by a summer shoulder injury) have high major recruiting pedigrees and will likely be expected to contribute immediately (a rarity for Becker bigs), while hyper athletic 3/4 Ileri Ayo-Faleye will have to replace Isaiah Powell’s rangy interior defense. Becker’s teams are consistently elite in their ability to limit quality looks at the rim and completely snuff out second chance opportunities (best defensive rebounding rate in the country last year per KenPom). Those two program building blocks are as shaky as they’ve ever been heading into the season, and it could be quickly exposed by the absences of bulldog perimeter defenders Shungu and Mazzulla, who guarded the 3PT line with tenacity, leading to the 5th lowest open 3 rate in the country last year. Physically intimidating 6’5 wing Sam Alamutu will be expected to cover a lot of gaps in the perimeter coverage this year. In short, there’s a lot riding on freshmen like Smith, an unusual position for a John Becker team. It might be a bit but reductionist, but if Smith is the real deal, UVM still wins the AmEast.

2. BRYANT

WHAT I LIKE: Despite having yet to actually play an America East game, Bryant is unquestionably the most talented team in the league, with Jared Grasso’s wide portal net snagging Earl Timberlake and Sherif Kenney from the high(ish) major ranks. Timberlake (if fully recovered from shoulder surgery) automatically becomes the most talented player in the league, and Kenney is a proven rim attacker with length and switchability defensively. Timberlake, Kenney, Rhode Island transfer Antwan Walker, Hofstra transfer Kvonn Cramer, and mega bucket getter Charles Pride give Grasso an obscene amount of switchable and athletic length 2-4- truly unparalleled in this league. The addition of former NEC rival Chauncey Hawkins gives Grasso something he’s lacked in recent years, a true distributor and on ball menace at the point, which should give this team a little more offensive structure than the “shoot first, never ask questions later” up and down mentality of past Bryant teams (Bryant played at about 73 possessions, which is 7 more than the AmEast league average, one of the slower leagues in all of D1), while the face of last year’s NCAA Tournament Doug Edert brings some 3PT shooting stability to a team that missed a LOT of threes borne from Grasso’s preferred tempo. Defensively, Bryant had the 7th highest zone rate and 15th highest press rate (per Synergy) nationally last year, and Timberlake, Kenney, and Cramer should be absolute wrecking balls in that scrambling matchup zone.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Even though not fully healthy last year, Hall Elisias was the league’s most dominant rim protector, and Walker/Cramer don’t quite project to have the same impact at the rim defensively. There’s also some concern about how Grasso’s more unstructured approach to the game will translate to a mostly rigid league (outside of Jim Ferry and UMBC).

3. UMASS LOWELL

WHAT I LIKE: Pat Duquette returns almost every key contributor from last year (obviously a rarity in this day and age of midmajor basketball) while also adding a few key portal additions. With Ryan Davis exiting Vermont, Max Brooks returns as the league’s best two way big man in addition to being the league’s best rebounder. Brooks and post Allin Blunt (who can also step out and hit the 3 from time to time) form the league’s most potent frontcourt, which is only bolstered by the addition of Abdoul Coulibaly and the return of hopefully healthy Connor Withers, one of the league’s most skilled bigs when he’s right. UML was the AmEast’s best interior defense last year, and held league opponents to just under 1 PPP despite teams hitting nearly 40% from 3 against them. Level off that 3PT shooting (on the lowest attempt rate allowed in the league), and Duquette’s squad is likely the best defense in the conference.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the UML frontcourt is loaded, the backcourt often undermines the offensive production. This was an incredibly inefficient PNR based offense, and the collective return of Ayinde Hikim and Everette Hammond doesn’t offer much hope in terms of turning that around. Mikey Watkins from Merrimack should take care of primary ball handling duties, but neither he nor William & Mary transfer Yuri Covington will alleviate the fatal spacing and shooting issues that plagued this offense last year. Any hope for an offensive efficiency turnaround from the backcourt likely lies in the hands of a full season from Justin Faison. That said, this backcourt can defend the hell out of the ball, particularly Hammond.

4. NJIT

WHAT I LIKE: It’s a pivotal year for Brian Kennedy, who has yet to post a winning league mark at NJIT (whether it be in the ASUN or AmEast), but his roster is loaded, relatively speaking. Miles Coleman returns as the fulcrum of the offense at something of a point-forward role, and will pair with Kevin Osawe (Little Rock by way of Western Kentucky) to form one of the league’s best 3/4 hybrid forward tandems. Souley Diakite returns for a 5th season, and is one of the league’s better blocks and boards guy when he can stay on the floor. While the frontcourt is a veteran crew with an identified ceiling, the backcourt is where the real potential lies. Paul McMillan should immediately be the focal point of the offense as the best recruit in NJIT history, and Marist transfer Raheim Sullivan can play on or off the ball (the Highlanders were essentially without a point guard for much of the latter part of the season last year), and is a reliable shooter, a much needed commodity in Newark.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: McMillan has to be as good as advertised, because the offense can’t continue to run through Coleman as much as it did last year (2nd in the league in both usage and shot rate) given his 89.6 ORtg in league play. This isn’t a knock on Coleman, as his inefficiency was largely the result of not having a PG on the roster, and the Highlanders put up absolutely abysmal efficiency numbers and advanced stat ratings across the board on the offensive end. Has that glaring issue been remedied with McMillan and Sullivan?

5. BINGHAMTON

WHAT I LIKE: It’s a precipitous drop from UVM and Bryant to the rest of the league, but Levell Sanders has a bit of momentum heading into his second season at the helm at Binghamton, as the Bearcats won more the 5 league games for first time since the 09-10 season. Dual prolific ball screen PGs Jacob Falko and John McGriff spearhead the offensive attack, but the Binghamton O will be bolstered by the addition of smooth scoring wing Armon Harried out of Canisius. Harried’s slashing capabilities should open the floor for fellow wing Christian Hinckson, who flashed one of the league’s best 3 and D repertoire’s last year. Defensively the Bearcats should probably be the league’s best interior unit, with the return of Hinckson, rim protector Savior Ogeheneyole, and the addition of EKU transfer Tariq Balogun (virtually the same player as Ogeheneyole).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Binghamton’s defense was buoyed by some unlikely to repeat 3PT shooting luck and Sanders’ two best players in McGriff and Falko were never able to efficiently share the court together, with spacing and shot selection being particular areas of deficit- and that’s compounded by the lack of any frontcourt production outside of the undersized Hinckson.

6. UMBC

WHAT I LIKE: Jim Ferry has to deal with some considerable roster turnover, and opted for the grad transfer route as an immediate band-aid. Craig Beaudion can be one of the league’s better PGs after exiting a weird situation at Cleveland State (although frosh Mason Docks will push him for playing time immediately), and he can certainly allow Jacob Boonyasith to continue to snipe off the ball as one of the AmEast’s premier shooters. D2 lights out shooter Colton Lawrence can thrive in Ferry’s up and down, 3PT heavy scheme if he’s healthy (same situation for former Akron wing Tre Edwards), while Buffalo transfer Tra’van Fagan and in-conference transfer Jarvis Doles provide the stretchiness and versatility at the 4 that Ferry covets, making an intriguing frontcourt with burgeoning Yaw Obeng-Mensah

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The defense should remain a sieve, but there is hope that Beaudion shores up some of the on ball issues and Obeng-Mensah’s second season as a rim protector could certainly aid a group that was gashed at the rim. Fagan’s switchability was a missing piece last year as well, but the Retrievers were still dead last in the league in both block and steal rate, and posted the least efficient post and rim defense in the AmEast. Transition defense was also a major issue, typically a given with Ferry’s run and chuck style leading to a lot of runouts the other way.

7. ALBANY

WHAT I LIKE: Despite some offcourt issues that I won’t delve into, Dwayne Killings had a surprisingly not unsuccessful first season replacing Will Brown, but he’ll need a solid nucleus of second year players to continue to develop in order to make a leap into legitimate league contention. That nucleus is highlighted by versatile wings Aaron Reddish, Ny’Mire Little, and Justin Neely, all of whom struggled with consistency last year, which was more or less to be expected. Cornell transfer Sarju Patel should help remedy some severe shooting issues, while undersized Trey Hutcheson receives some help in the frontcourt from Green Bay import Jappanah Kellogg and touted frosh Jonathan Beagle. Defensive intensity, particularly on the ball, was Albany’s calling card last year, and while several key perimeter defenders have exited, the length and versatility of that second year wing corps should keep Albany among the league’s best defensive teams, especially with addition of ballhawking Merrimack PG Malik Edmead.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: This team was an abomination offensively last year, ranking 354th in ShotQuality’s “shot selection” metric, and there were virtually no easy shots to be had at the rim for this Great Dane squad. Relying on a freshman (Beagle) and Kellogg to rectify the total lack of frontcourt scoring punch is a stretch, and while Edmead is a solid shooter and defensive wizard, he’s severely turnover prone on the ball- that’s troubling for the development of that second year wing corps and the overall health of the offense (although Patel should immediately be one of the league’s best shooters).

8. NEW HAMPSHIRE

WHAT I LIKE: I guess I’m just banking on the venerable Bill Herrion to keep UNH out of the AmEast cellar, as the roster has almost completely turned over from the best offensive team Herrion has ever had in Durham. Wing slasher Nick Johnson now becomes the focal point of the offense, and a trio of transfer guards will look to stabilize the backcourt. The ringleader of that crew should be D2 shooter Nazim Derry, while Seattle transfer Kyree Brown should handle on ball responsibilities, with former Marist guard Matt Herasme providing some depth and shooting.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s one thing you can take to the bank with a Herrion team, they’re not going to allow second chance points, as UNH has been a top 10 defensive rebounding rate team nationally in 7 of the past 8 seasons (leading the entire country twice in that span). But even that program cornerstone is in jeopardy with a totally unknown frontcourt coming into town, as the entirety of Herrion’s frontcourt has yet to log a single D1 minute (unless we’re counting Central Arkansas transfer Jaxson Baker as a member of the frontcourt, but he doesn’t rebound well for his size regardless).

9. MAINE

WHAT I LIKE: The Chris Markwood hire could turn out to be an inspired one, as he’s young, energetic, and knows the league well having spent time at Vermont (plus he was on staff under Bill Coen at Northeastern, which is a definite plus). Markwood didn’t inherit an entirely bare cupboard, and the backcourt is a particular strength with burgeoning second year PG Byron Ireland and a hopefully healthy LeChaun DuHart returning. Ade Adetogun also returns to that unit as a rim running defensive specialist on the ball, while wings Jashonte Wright-McLeish and Georgia Southern transfer Gedi Juozapaitis can provide some passable perimeter shooting.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The frontcourt is thin to say the least, and it’s hard to envision that unit climbing out of the league cellar in terms of 2PT% D, defensive rebounding, and FG% allowed at the rim. The good news for Markwood is that the bar in Orono is set so incredibly low, that even a modicum of improvement and upward trajectory will likely result in COY potential.