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Archive | March, 2023
3/28/2023 NIT SEMIFINAL NEWS AND NOTES
28 MarSubscribe to get access
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NCAA TOURNAMENT: FINAL FOUR NEWS AND NOTES
27 MarSubscribe to get access
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NCAA TOURNAMENT: ELITE 8 SUNDAY
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NCAA TOURNAMENT: ELITE 8 SATURDAY
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3/22/2023 NIT/CBI MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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3/21/2023 NIT/CBI MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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NCAA TOURNAMENT: SWEET 16
21 Mar3 KANSAS STATE vs 7 MICHIGAN STATE (NYC)
Kansas State and Michigan State are two pretty similar teams, as both have solid offenses and rely on their defenses to close out wins. Both are led by dynamic guards from New York in Tyson Walker for MSU and Markquis Nowell for Kansas State, but how they get that offense differs, as Michigan State has one of the highest midrange rates in the country, while KSU owns a top 50 “rim and 3” rate per ShotQuality metrics. This has potential to turn into a game with multiple haymakers from the two down the stretch.
Kansas State is led by the dynamic duo of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson. Nowell is one of the elite facilitators in the country, having the second highest assist rate. He will be the focal point for MSU’s defense. KSU will be looking to push almost every chance they get as one of the faster paced offenses in D1. This ultimately results in a lot of isos and rim runners. MSU on the other hand really wants to slow down the game on both ends (although Izzo will always hunt early offense in the secondary break, a hallmark of the program). They prefer teams to take a lot of time off the clock in their offensive sets, partially a by product of playing in the Big Ten. It’ll be key for the likes of AJ Hoggard, Tyson Walker, and Jaden Akins to get back after MSU gets up a shot (and they almost always do, with a top 25 transition denial rate per hoop-math).
When in the half court, Kansas State is going to let Nowell create. He is elite in passing out of the pick and roll, which is what the offense goes to frequently later in the shot clock. The big thing that has stood out is that Kansas State almost always has someone in the weakside corner cut baseline while Nowell gets into the lane. Generally, this cutter’s man is the low man and has rotated over to under the rim to help on the drive. The backdoor cut has opened up many lobs and layups throughout the season- there’s a reason KSU is in the 96th percentile in cut rate per Synergy. Speaking of pick and roll, MSU has shown they will both hedge and be in drop coverage. My guess would be they start in a hedge to try and force the ball out of Nowell’s hands, but Nowell has also shown an elite skill of being able to pass or dribble out of the hedge with effectiveness (he tortured Kentucky’s hedge and blitz, often in flashy ways). He is also liable to split the hedge at any moment, generating a paint touch once again. The paint touches often result in shots at the rim which makes sense since Kansas State has one of the highest rim rates in the country.
The general offensive flow for Kansas State is dribble drive and kicking out to the perimeter. Often this falls on Nowell’s hands, but Keyonte Johnson is another guy that will self-create a lot. At 6’6, 230 pounds, Johnson can do a bit of everything. He is an elite perimeter shooter, but he also gets downhill on the drive, bullying his way through defenders. At times, Kansas State will post him up. MSU generally has stayed single coverage on post ups throughout the season, but they might have to play their bigger lineup of Hoggard, Walker, Hall, Hauser, and Sissoko to allow Hall to take him on the defensive end.
On the other end, MSU is a team that is led by two guards in AJ Hoggard and Tyson Walker. Hoggard is one of the best facilitators in the country, and Walker is a dynamic guard that can score at all 3 levels. MSU is 6th in the country in 3 point percentage. Walker, Akins, Hauser, and Hall are all legitimate 3 point threats. MSU runs a ton of pindowns to get Hauser and Walker jumpers. Kansas State may try top locking at times (which they did with frequency in the Big 12), but MSU will usually counter that some with floppy action. MSU runs such good action to get their shooters good looks off of the ball.
MSU also runs a ton of pick and roll. Per Synergy, MSU runs the 42nd most pick and rolls in D1. Hoggard will be looking to generate a paint touch almost always, and then he will spray out to the guys on the perimeter. Kansas State often will have their low man rotated way over to help out in the paint. They have a variety of pick and roll coverages. I have seen them run drop, at the level, hedge, and late switching all within the same game. Against Hoggard, I see them hedging more to try and not let him get into the paint. It will be interesting to see what they do against Walker. Walker runs a ton of pick and rolls for MSU, and he loves snaking the screen to get to a 15 foot jump shot. In general, MSU takes the 7th most mid range jump shots in D1. Kansas State allows the 64th most mid range shots on defense. If they play drop coverage against Walker, he is going to pull up every time. I would guess they would either switch or play more at the level against him. Similarly to Johnson, Joey Hauser can do a bit of everything for MSU. He will pop sometimes on screens, come off pindowns, and even post up.
Both of these teams are going to rely on their superstar guards to make the needed plays for them. Both defenses are going to defend a lot of actions to try and get the ball out of their hands. Nowell showed against Kentucky that he can create an isolation shot out of nothing. MSU showed against Marquette they can get a multitude of guys going on offense, led by Walker. Neither team really operates through the post all that much, aside from the occasional post up from a wing. MSU will run a lot of off ball stuff to get shooters open, while Kansas State puts the ball in the hands of Nowell and Johnson to create for both them and for others. This game will have elite guard play, but it may come down to who out of the “others” can get going and also help defend the guards. With two New York based guards facing off in Madison Square Garden, this has potential to be one of the most fun games in the tournament. – Joe Jackson (@Joe_Jackson2210)
4 UCONN vs 8 ARKANSAS (Las Vegas)
The Muss Bus is rolling into the Sweet 16 and they are entering a fascinating matchup against UConn. Arkansas was able to beat Kansas by using a variety of weave actions to create advantageous matchups. Arkansas also consistently beat the Kansas hard-hedge with quick slips to the rim and consistent quick decisions. A huge aspect of Arkansas’ win, though, was simply Ricky Council IV and Devo Davis being able to consistently win in isolation and get to the rim. UConn might have some similar issues defending Arkansas with their similar hard-hedge. However, Andre Jackson might be a better option than any of Kansas’ wings on Ricky Council, but Davis is still likely to have an advantageous matchup and Adama Sanogo is going to struggle out on the floor against the Hogs’ athletes. On the other end, Arkansas is going to have some struggles against Sanogo in the post and that might force some double teams. UConn has a few players who can be effectively plugged against and that could force UConn into some different actions. The Huskies’ dribble handoff actions are consistently effective in creating shots for Jordan Hawkins and drives for Jackson, but Arkansas’ athletes and aggressiveness could bother all of UConn’s ball-handlers. UConn is the favorite here seed-wise and statistically, but Arkansas has some interesting strategic and athletic advantages in iso switches that could force UConn into some uncomfortable adjustments on both ends. UConn’s iso defense has ranged from elite in Portland, especially against Alabama (and against Villanova in BE play), to exploitable against St. John’s and Xavier. – Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14)
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3/20/2023 CBI MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
20 MarSubscribe to get access
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3/19/2023 NIT/CBI MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
19 MarSubscribe to get access
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Staring at the Floorboards 
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