11/13/2021 MATCHUP QUICK HITTERS

• I won’t have a horse in Texas/Gonzaga, just looking for a great game and mostly hoping to pick up some hints on Texas. Certainly Beard will no middle the Zags defensively, ideally forcing them into jump shots- which is the one potential area of concern with Strawther being the only guy I would consider “knockdown”. I found it interesting that Tre Mitchell didn’t start against HBU, as Beard went small with Bishop at the 5. Mitchell is the best player on Texas, which is saying something. I think Mitchell has to start against Gonzaga, which I guess doesn’t really matter in the grand scheme, but the defensive rebounding against HBU was the only concerning aspect of that game. Disu could make a difference on the glass in this game if he were available. End of the day, I’m not sure the structure of Beard’s motion can exploit the defensive deficiencies of Timme frequently enough, but if Texas’ no middle can turn Gonzaga into jump shooters and limit the weak side clears out of the ball screen continuity, they’re going to have a chance at a massive win at the Kennel- but like Banchero for Duke, Holmgren is a human bailout/cheat code.
• Both UCF and Miami had underwhelming 10 point wins over far less opponents, but both really took their foot (or feet I should say) off the gas in the final 5+ minutes in those games. I think Dawkins’ shifting D and pressure could be an issue for Miami as Moore has never responded to ball pressure well and taking the ball out of Wong’s hands will be a point of emphasis. Dawkins’ offenses typically live at the FT line, but Coach L defenses aren’t going to foul. Dawkins’ defenses typically force you to beat them from the outside, so McGusty/Wong jump shooting is key today. Lean Miami, but nothing strong.
• Temple’s offense is three “ballhandlers” (Dunne, Williams, Battle) and two constant screeners mixed with DOHs attempting to get to the rim at all times. That simply isn’t going to work against USC defense that doesn’t allow anything inside and doesn’t foul. At the very least, USC isn’t going to expose Temple’s always concerning turnover issues (although many of those are self inflicted).
• Davidson’s PNR and post defense will continue to be major issues this year, and PNR heavy San Francisco has dominant ball screen guards and a better post option this year in Massalski. Davidson’s offense is of course always an impossible prep, especially with one day off from a press heavy PVAM team. McKillop has a real thunder and lightning duo in Mennenga and Lee that are going to force Massalski and Tape out of their comfort zones. Arguably the most interesting matchup of the day, but it’s unlikely Loyer goes nuclear like he did against hapless Delaware.
• Cleveland State’s a scrappy, blue collar bunch (I can keep going with the cliches) and the embarrassment in Athens where Ohio went on something like a 40-0 run certainly isn’t forgotten. Schematically, CSU is going to harass Sears and try to expose them in ball screen defense, two things Belmont didn’t do (6 possessions of pressure, 1 total ball screen). Totally different prep with a team that’s intent on settling a score. CSU has to keep pressure on the rim with Wilson out, something they tend to forget about when they fall in love with the jump shot.
• Sounds likely that Shaver returns for Boise State tonight, and he and the long, versatile Bronco wings can win a lot of matchups against the UCI defense. Unfortunately that leaves them running into the Eater defensive brick wall at the rim. Unfortunately for Russ Turner, that same frontcourt looks like the worst he’s ever had in terms of offensive. The Eaters will totally go as the versatile Welp and Baker in the backcourt go. If they’re off, the offense is borderline nonfunctional. Welp loves to create mismatches, backing down smaller 3s that are thrown at him and facing up heftier 4s. Boise’s greatest strength defensively is their versatility and length between Kigab and Akot.
• Ryan Davis sounds game time with the flu, and Vermont obviously needs him against a more balanced Maryland team that has Wahab inside now. Scott/Ayala/Hart/Reese are major matchup issues for the Catamounts, but Shungu’s on ball D is elite against Fatts. Becker’s surely going to pack it in here and try to force that athleticism into jump shots, where the Terps look like they’ll be masons all year long.
• No question Speedy has abandoned the ubiquitous 2-3 matchup zone of the Mihalich/Farrelly years, but the Pride are still going to be one of the most ball screen reliant offenses in the country, and why not when Cooks cooked one of the best defensive teams in the country in his Hofstra debut? Duquesne’s specialty under Dambrot has been their PNR defense, as he deploys a cadre of hyper versatile switchers, and this year is no different with Ayers, Okani, and Easley. Sounds like no Ray for the Pride again as he deals with an ankle sprain.
• Iona’s offense looked downright European, as it was all pass and cut from all 5 players on the floor, almost no dribbling (Synergy confirms the eye test, with only 3 shots coming off the dribble). Harvard can defend this well with a long and athletic lineup that isn’t massive, but versatile instead- the top 6 rotation guys range from 6’4 to 6’7. I’m not sure either offense is going to find points easy here, as Amaker’s high ball screen motion plays right into the teeth of the hyper switchable Iona D, who somewhat surprisingly was in man 100% against App St, a team that figured to struggle against the infamous Pitino zone. Pretty big backcourt advantage in this one for the Gaels.
• NC State can’t avoid horrible early season injury luck. Bates being out for the year is a devastating blow, and it’s exacerbated in the short term by Gantt’s hernia. Offensively NCSU ran more ball screens for Hayes and Smith than any team in the country to date, while Colgate was 20th nationally, running everything through Cummings. Big athleticism advantage for the Pack here, and Smith, Seabron, and Morsell look absolutely devastating in the Keatts press. Secondary ball handlers look scant for the Raiders, as Richardson coughed up the ball 5 times against just token pressure from Northeastern.