FLORIDA STATE @ FLORIDA
Leonard Hamilton has absolutely dominated Mike White in this rivalry, and while FSU has a lot of roster turnover, it’s the same old formula- disrupt everything with obscene length and athleticism. It’s virtually impossible to get into your offense against the Noles, as their length 1-5 forces offenses into a way more iso situations that they’re comfortable with. Florida once again finds themselves on the short end of the height stick, with their three guards topping out at 6’3. The “smallest” player on the floor for FSU at any moment is 6’4 wrecking ball RayQuan Evans. FSU’s positionless basketball on the offensive end can be prone to sloppiness, as pressure can often expose the lack of true ballhandlers, and McKissic and Fleming are dogs on the defensive end. Forcing TOs AND capitalizing on them is about Florida’s only chance in this one, as the FSU length once again is the presiding factor.
WESTERN KENTUCKY VS SOUTH CAROLINA
WKU hasn’t looked good to start the year and they’ve been plagued by personnel issues (no Harmon or Williams yet), but they’ve also been the victim of some poor shooting luck, with Alabama State and Minnesota combining to go 21-53 from deep thus far. Dayv McKnight singlehandedly tried to course correct that against Minnesota, going thermonuclear in a losing effort. If positive defensive 3PT regression is going to happen, it will be against South Carolina, who is currently shooting an unsustainably low 17% (8-45!), but the dead cat bounce isn’t going to be high, as this team can’t shoot period, and the offense will continue to look wonky without bailout option Bryant. USCe couldn’t defend Princeton on the perimeter predictably, as the 5 out motion negated the strength of the Gamecocks’ frontcourt (physicality). WKU represents a more traditional matchup for them, but with Wilson potentially out again, they’re undermanned in the frontcourt against a massive unit. Seems like a pretty good spot for WKU if someone other than McKnight shows up offensively.
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE @ SFA
SDSU more than held their own offensively against the Tide, and would have been more competitive had a few jump shots fallen like they normally do, but as I noted in the preview of that game, their defense was unable to match the NBA athleticism and talent of the Tide’s 1v1 heavy roster, and they predictably went ballistic- 104 points in 81 possessions. SDSU now turns around for a quick trip to visit the most aggressive, denial heavy defense in the country. The SDSU Jacks have a decided offensive advantage over the SFA Jacks, who are also down one of the better offensive threats in Hawkins, but the SFA halfcourt pressure is a torture chamber, and it’s almost impossible for SDSU to get into their continuity offense or work through Wilson in the post. Scheierman obviously isn’t a true PG, and Mayo is a FR- could be trouble even for a typically turnover repellent offense. Per Torvik, SFA had the highest “close 2” rate in the country last year- that’s a troubling situation for a not exactly physically imposing SDSU interior.
MINNESOTA VS PRINCETON
The Gophers have exceeded (albeit low) expectations to date, but tough prep on a quick turnaround for Princeton’s 5 out motion. The good news for Minnesota is that the pace isn’t going to be an issue for Ben Johnson’s current 6 man rotation, and they’re theoretically more equipped to defend the Princeton O than the Tigers’ first opponent South Carolina, but they’re conversely unequipped to take advantage of the Tigers inside with a nearly 50% 3PTA rate through 2 games.
ETSU @ TENNESSEE
Wait just a damn minute, who are these Vols?! Are the offseason reports of Barnes moving away from the flex offense to a more modern spread PNR attack with Chandler true? Well, sort of. The Vols attempted 40!!! threes and hit 17!!!, and this was against a UT Martin team they could have dominated physically inside against (even without Fulkerson) and didn’t play a single possession of zone (the achilles heel of the Vols last year). It’s one game against one of the worst teams in the country, but we saw the blueprint- Chandler immediately allows Vescovi to become a sniper (6-11 from 3) and Powell brings even more lethal shooting off the bench. That said, the flex was still very much there, as were a lot of mover-blocker elements, but very little PNR. Obviously Des Oliver is well familiar with Barnes’ offensive scheme, and Ledarrius Brewer’s length can be an issue against Chandler. Oliver also extended pressure against App State a good deal, and might choose to test the frosh phenom with it. I’m not sure how ETSU scores, with JJJ capable of putting either Brewer in a box. The Vols updates to an old offense will get their first real test defensively, but I don’t think the Bucs have the firepower to capitalize if/when the Tennessee shooting comes back down to Earth.
YALE @ SETON HALL
Yale absolutely humiliated a bad UMass defense, essentially getting any shot they wanted inside or out, but now Swain and Cotton will be facing the absurd length of Richmond and Cale, and reading between the injury lines Rhoden (boot is off, which is good news). Going from UMass’s ole defense to this octopus armed halfcourt swarm is like jumping from a hot tub into ice bath- could be a rude awakening for Yale.
Staring at the Floorboards 
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