11/12/2021 MATCHUP QUICKHITTERS

Some rudderless thoughts…

• Slater looked like a wrecking ball at the top of Villanova’s press, but UCLA just saw a press from CSUB that utilizes length and athleticism at the top, and absolutely shredded it (1.3 PPP in press offense alone). Wright’s press is structured differently than Rod Barnes’, but it’s still a mistake to press Tyger and the Bruins. Loss of Riley shouldn’t be an issue here, as mobility is needed anyway against Nova’s pick and rolls, but he could make a difference offensively vs soft Nova interior. Great game where I lean Nova.
• Northeastern’s lack of PG play is a concern (McClintock was barely used at Colgate, as everything run through wing Telfort and Walters) is a major major concern against the extended matchup zone pressure of Georgia State, as is their PNR defense against what was the most ball screen reliant offense in the country last year. Nsoseme’s absence is a major concern against Doherty, who Coen appears to be integrating fully into the offense now that he’s mostly healthy. If Northeastern can get into their halfcourt stuff, Doherty’s going to have a big game potentially (although Jalen Thomas was actually GSU’s most effective post defender in a limited sample size), but it’s virtually impossible to work the ball through the post given the structure of GSU’s defense. TSG and Pridgen remain ineligible for Northeastern as well, so they’ll be out as expected.
• Hartford was ball screened and pressed to death by a far superior Wagner team in the opener, now they’re going to be back cut and matchup zoned by Campbell’s Princeton offense and zone pressure- tough prep, and Hartford isn’t nearly the same defensive team they were a year ago. Maybe it was just the opponent (non D1), but Josh Lusane only logged 5 minutes for the Camels. He’s the fulcrum of the Princeton O in the high post, but Jesus Carralero is a more than admirable replacement (in fact Lusane stole his job when Carralero was hurt last year).
• San Diego State and BYU were 1st and 3rd in FGA rate at the rim allowed last year, respectively. BYU’s ball screen continuity offense gave SDSU’s pack line fits last year, and only the heroics of the departed Mitchell kept the game quasi-manageable for the Tecs. That said, BYU’s guards struggle in ball screen defense and can be overwhelmed with ball pressure, both areas SDSU are fully capable of exploiting. Certainly a game Harward will be missed in. If I had a to pick here, it’s SDSU.
• Seems like we go through this every year with Oregon, as it typically takes some time for his constantly shifting amoeba zone to take hold in modern turnover heavy rosters, and the same is true of his high post spread motion offense. SMU hasn’t fared particularly well against zones (namely Tulsa in AAC play), as it limits Davis’ effectiveness off penetration.
• Coach Otz ran some pretty decent zone offense at UNLV, but I’m not sure this Iowa State roster is constructed to handle Oregon State’s matchup zone. Additionally, I think the Clones are going to struggle in their post defense, which is a concern against the massive and post reliant Beavs, but Hilton Magic in Otz’s first big home game probably wins out against a severely overrated OSU squad.
• Eastern Washington ran a ton of high low in Riley’s first game between undersized post Acliese and oversized high post Price. That can be effective against UC Davis, if they can handle UCD’s halfcourt ball pressure (EWU’s best guard Bergersen oddly came off the bench against Nevada). On the other end, EWU’s spread out bigs will likely have trouble defending in PNR against the Aggie guard centric attack, where Pepper, Fuller, and Manjon dominated possessions against USU. It should be noted the Aggies played in some altitude then turned around and flew home to Davis for an oddly timed weekday game- and the EWU offense is a fairly tough prep.
• Richmond was getting eaten alive early in ball screen D, but Gilyard took over on both ends and Richmond dominated the final 10+ minutes. Ball screen D is key against any Odom offense, but Utah State lacks the physical frontcourt that has bothered Golden and the Spiders in the past, as Horvath and Bean are both floor spacers (but one or both could go off).
• South Dakota State’s ball screen continuity can get overwhelmed by athleticism, and that’s Alabama’s calling card of course. Have to be able to limit Alabama’s rim and 3 offense in 1v1/iso situations, and the Jacks graded out in the 5th percentile in iso D last year, per Synergy. SDSU has to go nuclear from 3, which they’re capable of, but not only do the Tide not allow 3s, but teams hit them at less than 30% when they did get a look. I’m normally not one to overly credit low 3PT% allowed to strictly defense (mostly luck), but in Alabama’s case their closeout D is elite, and it’s a major focal point for Oats. Tough matchup for the Jacks, an otherwise very good midmajor entry.
• Holy flex offense! Santa Clara is one of the few midmajors in the country who can sort of match Stanford’s size, the biggest team in the country. Guard play is non existent for the Cardinal at the moment (although Silva is someone to watch), and Pipes could run wild in what was a surprisingly ball screen heavy first game for him under Sendek. Both frontcourts are going to be tasked with guarding in space, and Vrankic can be exposed there, but Justice and J. Williams are so versatile in that regard. Tarleton tried to beat Stanford in iso and they just kept running into a brick wall of help defense. That won’t be the case against Santa Clara, as Stanford’s monsters are going to have to defend in PNR and away from the rim.
• EIU’s methodical motion offense could prove tricky for a St. Louis team off two blowouts and Memphis ahead, and Simmons’ teams always hit the D glass hard. However the unknown status of Charles and Friday is troubling. EIU was never competitive with Northwestern after Wood picked up a bunch of quick fouls and only logged 11 minutes.