(16) Longwood vs. (1) Houston
All South Region notes courtesy of Jon Fendler (@JonFendler)
Longwood is a unicorn among typical 16 seeds, as the Lancers lead low-major CBB in “net shot volume,” which measures the overall disparity in rebound rate and turnover rate generated and allowed, but grade out 331st in ShotQuality’s “shot making” metric, accompanied by the lowest 3PT attempt rate in the entire field. Among Tournament teams, only the execrable Wagner and Saint Peter’s’ offenses “feature” lower shot making grades. Longwood’s smash-and-crash, downhill offense with an array of off-ball cutting tends to be an effective strategy against equivalent or less-talented teams, as the Lancers frequently bludgeon overmatched foes on the glass (#12 in OREB rate) and seek contact at the rim (#32 FTA rate) to compensate for a roster replete with wayward shooters. The paucity of shot making almost certainly portends doom against Houston, who famously allows extremely low rates of near-proximity shot attempts and forces offenses to win off the bounce and with quick, crisp kick-outs to the perimeter to beat the relentless Sampson scramble-and-recover. This is decidedly not Longwood’s identity. As sharp as Griff Aldrich is, I’m hard-pressed to see his path to competing here with such a paint-centric offense sorely lacking an efficient operator off the dribble to deal with Houston’s ferocious “two-to-the-ball” perimeter swarm and hair-on-fire post doubles. Longwood finished dead-last in turnover rate in the Big South – a league not known for pressure schemes (other than Asheville) – and was 349th nationally in dribble efficiency. Traditionally, this lack of steady dribble creation has been a formula for insta-death against Houston.
Houston (again) leads the country in EvanMiya’s “kill shot” metric, which tracks 10-0 runs (the Cougs have registered an absurd 38 kills shots, averaging more than one per game; Gonzaga is second with 32). I imagine you’ll hear some pundit chatter throughout the week regarding the ongoing injury concerns with J’Wan Roberts and the recent loss of freshman defensive wrecking ball JoJo Tugler, but the extended media timeouts in the Tournament will help Sampson manage his short rotation. Unfortunately, as of press time, the books are aggressively shading Houston above the analytical projections, likely due to the Cougs’ well-documented and longstanding penchant for skull-crushing blowouts against Q4 opponents. If forced to make the “so you’re saying there’s a chance here…” case for Longwood staying within 15, I’d point to Houston’s piss-poor shot selection and over-reliance on tough shot making by Shead and Dunn leading to too many empty trips, and the Lancers managing to stay close to even on the glass. Doubt I’ll be involved here on either side ATS – at least at current prices.
(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A & MFascinating stylistic contrast. Nebraska is a top 20 shot making team powered by top 10 spacing (per SQ) and stellar off-ball movement orbiting around its 6’10, 250-pound passing maestro, Rienk Mast. The Huskers are horrendous on the glass and don’t force turnovers, leading to the second-lowest net shot volume mark in the entire field when filtering for away/neutral games (as you might have heard, the Tournament is played away from home). Hoiberg’s “shell” defensive scheme manically underscreens to compensate for some questionable perimeter deficiencies, and underscreening against Texas A & M is something everyone should do pro forma regardless of your standard base defense.
Speaking of shot volume, the Aggies are the diametric opposite of Nebraska, ranking second among Tournament teams in net shot volume in away/neutral games (trailing only SMC). I’m quite concerned about TAMU’s first-shot offense against the Huskers’ P & R coverage, which allows offenses to run P & R at a meager 13th percentile rate and is adept at sitting in the gaps and forcing jumpers (99th percentile in jump shot rate forced).This is the most straightforward defensive prep Hoiberg could have asked for, as Buzz has scrapped any pretense of running an actual offensive system in lieu of cutting loose Wade Taylor and Boots Radford in P & R at a top 10 rate nationally.
At the other end, Nebraska runs the highest rate of DHO’s in the country, per Synergy, with Mast as the “trigger man” at the top of the key and in the high post with Tominaga, Williams, and Wilcher running through a dizzying array of screens and cutting actions; all three are shooting 37% or better from three on very high volume. Mast is also a legitimate pick-and pop option when defenses devote too much attention to Hoiberg’s myriad off-ball eye candy. Buzz notoriously switches everything to force isolation (99th percentile ISO forced), which could open up some back-cuts and flares with Mast’s vision and sharp passing the great equalizer against this style of defense. These aren’t directly-analogous comparisons, but A & M’s defense was lost in the sauce against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, both of whom utilize ample off-ball action. While all of this might sound like an unequivocal case for Nebraska, the footspeed and twitchiness disparity here is, to put it mildly, chasmic, and the Aggs’ physicality and athleticism might eventually win out. You’ll want to double-check my work on this, but I believe TAMU’s 45.4% offensive eFG% is the worst mark of any at-large team in the nearly 20-year history of Torvik’s database.
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