1 UConn vs 16 Stetson
All East Regional Notes courtesy of Coach Bryce Hendricks (@BryceHendrick14)
We are plenty used to 1 vs 16 matchups feeling completely lopsided, but this feels like one of the more extreme cases in recent memory. Stetson is comfortably the worst defensive team in the tournament, even though they do have some real size inside with Aubin Geteretse and Treyton Thompson. Stetson does have the upside of being an elite three-point shooting team – in terms of both volume and efficiency – and sometimes teams like that can just get hot in March. However, the Hatters are going to struggle to guard any of UConn’s actions, whether they be the complex move and space stuff or simple spread pick-and-roll between Tristen Newton or Stephon Castle and Donovan Clingan.
The one thing that could potentially make this game close is if Jalen Blackmon can consistently kill Clingan’s drop coverage with pull-up shooting or if Treyton Thompson could be a more consistent pick-and-pop threat than he has proven to be (and Stetson has seen an athletic drop and posted 1.17 PPP against Cincy, although they were without Bandaogo, their primary drop 5). It would require outlier good shooting from those two and outlier bad shooting from the Huskies, but there is a path to a (relatively) close game here. Defensively, Donnie Jones is a junk zone master and will try to muddy this game up, but zoning UConn is ultimately a fool’s errand.
8 Florida Atlantic vs 9 Northwestern
Those who love offense are going to love FAU vs Northwestern. It might not be a super high-scoring game, as Northwestern prefers per possession efficiency to overall points, but there is going to be a lot of gorgeous offense throughout. The Wildcats are great at creating open 3s and avoiding turnovers, which is a tough matchup for an FAU team that isn’t good at much defensively other than not fouling. While Northwestern does run a lot of movers and blockers offense for their off-ball shooters, their bread and butter tends to be Boo Buie pick-and-rolls or handoffs, specifically on an emptied side. This is going to put a lot of pressure on Vladislav Goldin to hold up as a rim-protector. However, Northwestern does tend to play two non-shooters despite being the best three-point shooting team in the country and this does make help easier. However, aside from Goldin, FAU isn’t playing much rim-protection (although May has experimented a bit with Goldin and Lorient together as a legitimate 4, where they’ve struggled defensively all year) and it is playing a risky game bringing help on the Wildcats’ empty-side actions because of how good their cutters and slashers are. Northwestern is a deadly offensive team who has the best overall player in this game with Buie. FAU is probably going to have to match the Wildcats offensive output rather than being able to truly slow Northwestern down.
The most obvious tell for who will win this game is likely going to be who controls the pace. FAU wants to get up and down as much as possible, ranking in the 89th percentile in time spent in transition according to Synergy. If FAU is able to get the pace where they want it, it will swing the game in their favor. FAU is a solid half-court defense, but they are far more guardable in that setting, especially by a team with solid size like Northwestern, although the lack of Nicholson is troubling for NU at the rim vs Goldin (per hoop-explorer, there’s a 12% drop in NU’s rim defense with Nicholson off the floor, and he sounds doubtful heading into the first round)
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Staring at the Floorboards 
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