- PENN
WHAT I LIKE: Jordan Dingle and the backcourt. Dingle’s return alone as a singular Ivy superstar would be enough to make this the best backcourt in the league as an elite dribble drive guard and rim finisher whose efficiency significantly increased despite his usage and shot rate skyrocketing to the highest in the league. But not only does Dingle return, but burgeoning sophomore slasher and surprisingly strong defender George Smith, deadly spot shooter Jonah Charles, and crafty Clark Slajchert all return as well, giving the Red and Blue the best backcourt in the league. Factor in Lucas Monroe hopefully playing more in position on the wing with better frontcourt health (where his defense and athleticism can really be effective), and Steve Donahue has the league’s best 1/2/3 unit highlighted by the league’s best offensive player.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Covid and an unreal avalanche of injuries has really stalled the development of Donahue’s frontcourt, particularly Max Llorca Lloyd, who has the talent level to be one of the best bigs in the league. MLL’s sustained health is likely the key to unlocking Penn’s season, as he undoubtedly raises the ceiling of the defense as arguably the league’s best rim protector. A healthy Nick Spinoso also allows Max Martz to move out of the frontcourt, where he can be even more effective offensively (hard to believe he can be more effective after churning out of the league’s most efficient seasons on that end, but I think he can as a more strictly perimeter oriented threat in Donahue’s offensive system), and especially defensively, where he did yeoman’s work with the spate of frontcourt injuries. A return to health for the frontcourt would bring some normalcy to the Donahue offense, which didn’t really look like a typical rim and 3 Donahue unit. Last year’s team produced the lowest 3PTA rate of the Donahue era at Penn, and the second lowest open 3 rate in Ivy play, an area the Quakers were 14th nationally in precovid, per ShotQuality. Granted, Dingle’s strength as a virtually unguardable iso threat at this level likely forced Donahue to tweak his offensive calculus a bit, but I think you’ll see the 3PTA rate look a little more Donahuian with Martz in position (which in turn frees up Charles a bit).
2. YALE
WHAT I LIKE: James Jones’ length and versatility will be rivaled only by Harvard, with rangy athletes filling the Bulldogs’ top to bottom. Bez Mbeng is perhaps the most intriguing PG in the league if his offense catches up to his defense in his second season in New Haven. At 6’5 Mbeng was an absolute menace on the ball, racking up the league’s 2nd highest steal rate and torturing opposing ballhandlers with his wingspan. With Azar Swain and Jalen Gabiddon around him last year, Mbeng wasn’t called upon to shoot the ball often, logging only a 12% shot rate, and he wasn’t efficient when he did shoot it. If Mbeng has made some significant strides offensively over the summer, he’s a nightly triple double threat in the Ivy given how he rebounds his position. Matt Knowling is the most likely candidate to serve as Jones’ offensive fulcrum in Swain’s wake with his ability to do everything except shoot the ball. Knowling logged the 7th most efficient offensive Ivy season as one of the league’s best wing slashers/rim finishers, and also rebounds his position incredibly well. August Mahoney’s smooth jump shot can provide the missing part of Knowling’s game, but over half of his attempts were catch and shoots last year, so his shot creation is still very much a question mark, as is his defense. The same is true for Matthue Cotton, who slogged through an offensively regressive season last year (although he was playing hurt for much of the latter half of the year). Cotton’s upside as a wing scorer has always been intriguing but tangible only in flashes. He’ll have to be a lot more consistent with Swain now departed. Regardless, Yale will likely go 6’5 across the 1-3, and all rebound their position extremely well. Jones’ frontcourt could be the best defensive unit in the league with the versatility of EJ Jarvis and Isaiah Kelly. Jarvis logged the league’s 2nd highest block rate and 3rd best OREB%, and Yale held opponents to just .89 PPP when he was on the floor, per hooplens. Kelly meanwhile was 3rd in Ivy block rate, but neither were consistent offensively, and Jones can’t play them both together. Yussif Basa-Ama is raw offensively, but is yet another athletic defensive frontcourt menace Jones has at his disposal, while 7 foot Danny Wolf has the most refined offensive game, but is only a frosh.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Where does the offense come from? Relying on Knowling, Mbeng, Cotton, and Mahoney to make up for Swain’s production and shot creation is a stretch, even when you consider all 3 of them together. Freshman Devon Arlington is the Swain heir apparent with his stat stuffing prep profile and similar overall game, but it remains to be seen if Jones will turn to him early if Knowling, Cotton and Mahoney aren’t providing the offensive spark needed/anticipated. The frontcourt has similar offensive issues, with Jack Molloy, Wolf, and Nick Townsend (Matt’s brother, who actually hasn’t played in 2 years) offering the upside, but no defense, especially in comparison to Kelly, Jarvis, and Basa-Ama. Wolf is especially intriguing given his size/incredible ball skill combo, especially if he’s actually 7 feet tall as listed by the official Yale roster (6’10 everywhere else). Jones is going to have some odd lineup combos and complex substitution patterns this year it seems.
3. HARVARD
WHAT I LIKE: As usual, the Crimson have the most talent in the league, it’s just a matter of how healthy Tommy Amaker’s club is. Harvard was ravaged by injuries last year, and as the summer comes to a close, we still somehow don’t know what’s going on with Chris Ledlum. Amaker has always been extremely tight lipped about injuries, but we’re 8 months out from Ledlum’s undisclosed injury and he’s apparently still not fully cleared for all basketball activity, per a recent Jon Rothstein tweet. Ledlum is one of the league’s most versatile scorers and defenders as a small ball big or attacking wing, and essential to Harvard’s success this year. For the sake of this preview, we’ll assume he’s at the very least 100% or close by the time Ivy play begins. Ledlum paired with a healthier frontcourt should give the Crimson the best 4/5 unit in the league, if they can scrape their considerably high collective ceiling. Justice Ajogbor is a well built 6’10 potential powerhouse who was among the walking wounded last year, and while a touch unrefined around the rim with this footwork, he has obscene raw skills and athleticism. Chisom Okpara is the jewel of Amaker’s incoming class as a super athletic 6’8 4 who can initiate the break on his own and put the ball on the floor from the perimeter. If Ledlum is healthy, Ajogbor continues to develop and is healthy, and Okpara is ready to contribute immediately, this is a frontcourt no one in the league can really defend with the possible exception of Yale.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt is extremely long and Louis Lesmond brings a high talent level in his second season in Cambridge, but I’m not sure where the shot creation and shot making comes from this unit. Lesmond is clearly the guy who needs to step up in Noah Kirkwood’s departure, but I was a little disappointed in what I saw from him when he was on the ball. Granted, he wasn’t being asked to do much in that regard last year, and he was also one of the many Crimson playing injured, but he’s going to need to take a significant jump in order for Harvard to really be functional in Amaker’s dribble heavy, high ball screen offense. Luka Sakota actually had the highest ball screen last season per Synergy, and he and Lesmond can form a difficult matchup as 6’6 hybrid 1/2/3 guards. I would also expect to see more of Tyler Simon on the ball, who has as high of a recruiting pedigree as Lesmond, and also runs 6’5. Idan Tretout showed some serious offensive upside as a slasher, before he too was felled by injury. Between Lesmond, Sakota, Simon, and Tretout, Amaker has several long, multidimensional ball handling options. I’m just not sure any of them can consistently run an efficient offense. Harvard’s defense was the worst since Amaker’s first two years on the job 15 years ago. Some of that can be chalked up to teams hitting 38% from 3 against them in league play, but more can be chalked up to players like Sam Silverstein playing too much and out of position due to injury, so I’m not particularly concerned about the Crimson on that end of the floor.
4. PRINCETON
WHAT I LIKE: The return of Tosan Evbuomwan. Evbuomwan is obviously an elite offensive big man in Mitch Henderson’s modified Princeton motion, posting the league’s top assist rate and 13th best ORtg despite top 5 usage and shot rates. Evbuomwan will once again be the fulcrum of an offense that was elite nationally in an incredible array of advance metrics: rated as ShotQuality’s top shot making team and top 25 in both spacing and shot selection, top 15 in catch and shoot rate with a top 10 efficiency, and top 25 post efficiency. While the pieces around Evbuomwan aren’t as defined and experienced within the offense as last year, having your north star in the middle can quickly get everyone up to speed, and Ryan Langborg and Matt Allocco are primed for massive seasons as the primary catch and shoot recipients. Keeshawn Kellman meanwhile showed promise in limited action with his athleticism before an injury limited him come Ivy play.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Henderson lost so many elite shooters to graduation, plus Jaelin Llewellyn brought a unique dribble drive dynamic to the motion that won’t quickly be replicated (per hooplens, Princeton scored at an eye popping 1.15 PPP with Llewellyn on the floor, and 1.02 PPP without him). Langborg and Allocco are the only returning players who attempted a shot off the dribble last year, and they combined for a total of 19 attempts. Of course that isn’t a huge deal, as it’s simply not an aspect of Henderson’s offense, but Llewellyn’s ability on the ball added a wrinkle in the scheme that took the Tigers to that elite national level in terms of offensive efficiency. The offense was also filled with so many gadget plays within the scheme, borne from guys like Wright, Friberg, and Llewellyn having so many reps together. I think Xaivian Lee and Deven Austin will eventually be very good guards in this offense, particularly the former who was MVP of the Canadian U19 team this summer, but the offense won’t have that same fluidity quite yet. With less confirmed shooting immediately available, Evbuomwan’s 56% free throw shooting will be a bigger problem than it was last year, especially given his volume at the stripe.
5. CORNELL
WHAT I LIKE: Brian Earl’s uptempo, rim or 3 or bust offense is fun to watch, and the defense pressed at a 44% rate, the highest in the Ivy by several magnitudes. The Big Red offense created open 3s at the highest rate in the league, the highest rim and 3 rate, and the highest catch and shoot rate with the most efficient 2PT% offense and the Ivy’s highest assist rate. Earl’s offense is very much a plug and play system utilizing the 4th highest bench minutes in the country, but there are a few key guys returning that should keep Cornell running and gunning. First is Chris Manon, a 6’5 combo guard who was 2nd in both shot rate and usage in Ivy play, while posting the 2nd highest assist and fouls drawn rate, while logging the highest steal rate in the league in Earl’s press. Simply put, Manon does everything except shoot the 3 consistently. That job falls to 6’7 Keller Boothby, who poured them in at 50% last year, leading the entire country in ORtg (although that dropped off a bit in Ivy play, where his ORtg was good for 4th). Floor stretcher Guy Ragland should see a significant uptick in shot rate as well in his second season in the system and Sean Hansen was an effective point-center of sorts when Cornell actually ran their motion in the halfcourt. Ragland and Hansen will likely be the nominal frontcourt starters in the wake of Jordan Jones and Kobe Dickson. Nazir Williams showed some promise as a frosh pace pusher on the ball, and should see a big jump in efficiency after adjusting to the speed of the game. DJ Nix and Cooper Noard are the highest regard newcomers in a big freshmen class for Earl, and should contribute immediately.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: I mentioned Earl’s system is very much “plug, play, and go”, but Jones and Dickson are big losses, as it’s going to be hard for Earl to replace their athleticism at the wing/frontcourt. The back end of the press was already excessively weak, and Big Red was frequently burned at the rim. That figures to get even worse this season without Dickson and no real height/athleticism added.
6. DARTMOUTH
WHAT I LIKE: Big Green was a playoff team last year if they could have hit a jump shot. Dave McLaughlin’s constantly off-ball screening offense notched the Ivy’s 3rd best spacing rating and 2nd highest open 3 rate per ShotQuality- unfortunately Dartmouth was dead last in SQ’s shot making metric. Viewed through a “glass half full” prism, perhaps it’s a good thing a bad shooting team turned over a significant chunk of roster. Big Green will be far more frontcourt oriented with the return of efficient rim monster Dame Adelekun, perhaps the most underrated player in the entire league, all things considered. Adelekun is the Ivy’s best rebounder, draws contact at the 4th highest rate (while knocking down the freebies at a 70% clip), and is the league’s most important returning defender for a team that was second in defensive efficiency margin last year (Ivy offenses scored at a meager .87 PPP when Adelekun was on the floor, compared to 1.02 PPP when he was off, per hooplens). Monster year coming for the Evbuomwan-lite of the league. Adelekun and fellow frontcourt mate Cam Krystkowiak almost never shared the floor last year, but McLaughlin might need to find a way to make that work, because those two are his most skilled offensive players by far. Krystkowiak certainly has the shooting stroke to be one of the league’s better floor stretchers as evidenced by his outburst at Cal, and he’s a skilled passer at 6’9. This is an under the radar, highly skilled frontcourt with serious upside now that Krystkowiak is healthy with a year of Ivy play under his belt. McLaughlin really bolstered the frontcourt with his incoming recruiting class, as both Jackson Munro and Brandon Mitchell-Day are versatile, inside out bigs.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The backcourt is quite hazy at the moment, with Ryan Cornish the likely alpha after an expected up and down freshman season. Cornish showed some serious upside offensively, especially in that OT loss at Stanford, but his handle and shot creation were both underdeveloped last year. This is not a playoff caliber backcourt.
7. COLUMBIA
WHAT I LIKE: It’s been rough stretch for Jim Engles, as the Lions have notched just 2 Ivy wins in the past two played seasons, but things are looking up thanks to the best incoming recruiting class in the league (which is due in large to the addition of Tobe Carberry to Engles staff a few seasons ago). Before we get to the recruiting class, Engles has a talented sophomore nucleus to add them to, led by Geronimo Rubio de la Rosa, who at times set the league on fire as a frosh speed demon on the ball. de la Rosa was highly volatile, but he also had to deal with an insane amount of injuries to the key personnel around him. With more talent added this season, de la Rosa should see an improvement in his efficiency (particularly in the TO department), and ascend to one of the league’s premier scoring PGs. de la Rosa could immediately be moved off the ball in an efficiency increasing measure with the addition of true PG Avery Brown, who could be the ball screen distributor in the league’s most prolific PNR offense that Engles has been looking for. The crown jewel however of Engles’ class is 6’7 2/3 Blair Thompson, who could quickly develop into the Ivy’s best pure three level scorer. Thompson is a bucket machine with ball skills who can score in multiple ways in PNR designs- a truly “nice get” by Engles and staff. The backcourt has significant depth, a nice feature when you play at Engles’ preferred pace. A healthy Eddie Turner has proven to be a capable scorer and distributor on the ball in Ivy play, Zavian McLean had a strong finish to last season and is the team’s strongest on ball defender, and frosh Jaden Cooper looked like one of the league’s best shooters in the final month of the season.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite the ballyhooed incoming class, it’s important to remember just how bad Columbia has been the last few seasons. Yes, there have been major injuries (most notably to Ike Nweke), but 2 wins in 2 seasons is still 2 wins, and Columbia has been dead last in nearly every advanced offensive metric in that time span. I’m also concerned about Columbia’s defense, particularly at the rim. Robbie Stankard isn’t exactly a physical force in the paint, and top frontcourt recruit Richard Nweke (no relation to Ike) isn’t currently listed on Columbia’s official roster. A healthy Josh Odunowo is HUGE defensively, as he’s one of the Ivy’s most versatile defenders, but he’s best as a switching wrecking ball, not as a stationary rim protector, where he’s just 6’6 (albeit a springy 6’6). One final note, promising wing Cameron Shockley-Okeke is listed on Columbia’s roster, but has entered the portal per Verbal Commits, who also currently lists Nweke on the roster, but Columbia doesn’t- roster deciphering in the age of The Portal is a a full time job.
8. BROWN
WHAT I LIKE: The backcourt. Kino Lilly was a dynamo on the ball as a frosh, taking home the top Ivy freshman honors, and his shooting was what really surprised me. Lilly canned 43% of his triples in Ivy play, making his speed on the ball even more lethal. Dan Friday returns as a streaky on ball option to free up Lilly, but his defense as a big on ball defender is a plus (his offense however, was a deathtrap- Brown scored at just .91 PPP when he was on the floor per hooplens). Kimo Ferrari, Paxson Wojcik, and Perry Cowan all return as veteran shooters with little consistency between them. Wojcik had a stretch in late January where he looked like one of the league’s best wing scorers, then disappeared completely and finished the year injured. He’ll be desperately needed for a consistently efficient offensive season this year.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Heavy defensive losses, like some of the best defenders in program history. Replacing Jaylan Gainey isn’t going to happen this season, as his league leading block rate, outstanding two way rebounding, and hyper efficiency at the rim are devastating losses (the loss of his offense is an underrate aspect, given Brown’s shooting woes), only exacerbated by the loss of Tam Choh in combination. Nana Owusu-Anane is the name to watch in the frontcourt. He’s not going to be the same defender as Gainey, but his still raw physical tools have had another offseason to develop and recover from a late season injury, and he could be in for a significant statistical jump. Martin also has a solid incoming class, and he always finds a long armed, athletic big that surprises you- that could be Kalu Anya, who has Gainey defensive ability written all over him. Drew Kania and AJ Lesburt could be offensive options as multidimensional scorers with size, something Brown really lacks in its returning core. Brown really made their offensive hay at the rim last year, because this team couldn’t shoot, so Kania and Lesburt might be relied upon sooner rather than later, and Martin isn’t afraid to throw freshmen into the fire.
Staring at the Floorboards 
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