1. YOUNGSTOWN STATE
WHAT I LIKE: Depth, versatility, and experience, plus the return of a healthy Garrett Covington. YSU has hovered around the .500 mark in 4 of Jerrod Calhoun’s 5 seasons, but that was enough to get him an extension, and this should be his best chance at winning the league. A strong returning core of Dwayne Cohill (the league’s premier dribble drive guard), Shemar Rathan-Mayes (another dribble drive guard with a plus jump shot and steadiness on the ball), Myles Hunter (versatile 2/3/4), and William Dunn (efficient floor stretcher) is bolstered by the return of Garrett Covington from an achilles injury (yet another versatile, slashing wing who can defend 1-4) and an outstanding portal hunt by Calhoun. Bryce McBride (Eastern Michigan) and Brandon Rush (Fairleigh Dickinson) are yet two more dribble drive combo guards, while Malek Green (Canisius) draws a ton of contact at the 4 and was arguably the best defensive rebounder in the MAAC, and Adrian Nelson hops north from Northern Kentucky where he was the Horizon League’s most efficient rim scorer and best two way rebounder (a must in Michael Akuchie’s departure). YSU wasn’t a particularly strong rebounding team last year, and Nelson and Green address that in a major way, as strong offensive rebounding had been a program staple. The Guins have multiple ball handlers and interchangeable pieces 2-4, and they should lead the league in FTAs.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: YSU often broke down into “your turn my turn” iso dribble drives, which was ok because they’re actually efficient at it, but it did lead to some poor shot selection (9th in the league per ShotQuality). and the lowest assist rate in the league, and not exactly an ideal offensive strategy in the zone heavy Horizon (although the Guins were the third most efficient zone O in the league, per Synergy). They also lack a strong shot blocking/post presence defensively. Nelson wasn’t an efficient post defender and rarely did anyway inside NKU’s ubiquitous zone.
2. OAKLAND
WHAT I LIKE: Greg Kampe gonna Kampe, as he brought Lorne Bowman and Rocket Watts home from P6 voyages to form one of the best backcourts in all of midmajordom with assist, free throw, and steal machine Jalen Moore (1st in assist rate again, 2nd in FT rate, 3rd in steal rate). Watts brings some injury and baggage concerns, but Kampe has a tremendous track record with these P6 “reclamation projects”, and I fully expect Oakland to be an absolutely lethal offensive team (if questionably efficient at times). Trey Townsend returns as likely the league’s most efficient 4 at the rim, shooting 67% from that range last season, and he was Kampe’s best defender within the zone (the league’s highest zone rate in a very zone-y conference). Missouri State’s Keaton Hervey should be a factor on the wing as a versatile scorer who was either buried or hurt in Springfield, while Osei Price’s athleticism and Blake Lampman’s consistent spot shooting round at a deep and talented 1/2/3 unit.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Replacing the awesomeness of Jamal Cain, an incredible offensive bailout option, will of course be difficult. While Cain didn’t shoot the 3 well last year, he was capable, which Townsend isn’t- so spacing is going to be an issue with so many dribble drive guards. There’s also the concern that maybe Watts just isn’t that good based on a sizeable sample at this point (although I’m obviously inclined to believe he has a monster year). You also have to be concerned about the zone, which allowed one of the highest catch and shoot rates in the country and 4th highest unguarded jump shot rate nationally (per Synergy), but Horizon offenses hit just over 30% of those threes. The back of the zone was also porous (although octopus armed Choul Deng offers some hope for relief there), which is troubling if that defensive shooting luck levels out against the Grizz. Rebounding will always be an issue for any team that zones as much as Oakland does, but it could be exceptionally bad for OU this year.
3. WRIGHT STATE
WHAT I LIKE: Scott Nagy runs a big man factory in Dayton, and this year it’s AJ Braun’s turn with Grant Basile gone. Braun doesn’t have the versatility or rebounding strength of Basile, but Nagy will certainly develop him into one of the league’s best bigs. Nagy has a deep frontcourt as well with Brandon Noel finally ready to contribute, and Evansville stretch shooter Blake Sisley coming in. Noel can replicate Basile’s rebounding to some extent, while Sisley is a skilled shooter who was under utilized on a bad Evansville team last year. CJ Wilbourn is a veteran presence in the frontcourt as well who has been around the league seemingly forever. Speaking of “well known to the Horizon League”, former Green Bay dribble drive guard Amari Davis returns to the league after a year at Missouri. Davis can attack the rim relentlessly, but more importantly he’s a plus on ball defender, and the Raiders were absolutely smoked off the dribble last year. Davis is far from a shooter, but Trey Calvin, Keaton Norris, Tim Finke (a much better shooting wing than he showed last year, and Andrew Welage all return for a Raider offense that hit 35% in league play and led the HL in offensive efficiency. Drey Carter is the most intriguing freshman addition for Nagy as a 6’8 2/3 with refined ball skills.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Wright State’s post reliance was expected with a player like Basile anchoring the offense, but it’s tough to see Nagy pounding the ball inside to Braun and Noel at the same extreme rate (13th highest post rate in the entire country). Braun was also one of the least efficient “volume” defensive posts in the league, per Synergy, and Davis alone won’t solve the glaring dribble drive defensive issues. WSU’s spacing should improve as a result, but those point blank buckets were reliable and the cornerstone of the league’s best offense. That said, the Raiders might not face the league’s highest zone rate this year (and the second highest in the entire country per Synergy), which is good, because they weren’t particularly efficient when the paint was cordoned off. Nagy’s worst finish was 5th in his first year in the HL, and his teams have finished in first/share of first in 4 seasons, with a second place finish in the other year- so it’s difficult to envision a steep tumble down the standings.
4. NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WHAT I LIKE: The return of Marques Warrick and Darrin Horn’s ubiquitous morphing, trapping zone that held an often rim reliant league under 1 PPP for the season. Warrick is a legit three level scorer who can play on and off the ball, is aided by the return of versatile Sam Vinson- a versatile playmaker who can play 2/3/4 and showed remarkable promise in his freshman season. Vinson had his typical ups and downs for a first year D1 player, but his upside is immense on both ends of the floor. Veteran wing and glue guy Trevon Faulkner also returns for a strong guard/wing nucleus who knows Horn’s complex defensive scheme. D2 import Xavier Rhodes was an assist machine at the lower level, and will provide a steady on ball presence opposite Warrick. Detroit transfer Chris Brandon was a rock at the rim and the glass last year for the Norse, shooting 70% from point blank range off putbacks and dump offs while logging the league’s best OREB% and 2nd best DREB%. NKU always produces an outstanding freshman, and my pick is 6’8 wing LJ Wells to break out this year.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: NKU wasn’t a particularly skilled shot making offense, and didn’t finish well at the rim (outside of the low volume Brandon) despite generating a substantial amount of rim looks. Additionally, the nature of the zone leaves them susceptible on the glass and hot shooting nights from opposing offenses.
5. PURDUE FORT WAYNE
WHAT I LIKE: The Dons return basically everyone from a team that went 15-6 in the HL last year, tied with Cleveland St for the best mark in the league. Jon Coffman’s inventive motion and outstanding play designs frequently make the rounds on the nerdier basketball nuts and bolts sites, but what was surprising was the Dons leading the league in defensive efficiency, one of only 2 HL teams to limit opponents to sub 1 PPP (quite a feat in this offensive minded league). PFW generated the league’s highest TO rate at 22% thanks to a trio of switching wings of Jarred Godfrey, Deonte Billups, and Jalon Pipkins, who all logged top 10 steal rates (Fort Wayne was one of the few HL teams that didn’t zone on a quarter or more of their defensive possessions). Godfrey and Billups both return, and Pipkins will be capably replaced by St. Cloud transfer Anthony Roberts on both ends of the floor, and rising sophomore JoJo Peterson on the defensive end. The Billups/Godfrey/Roberts trio can all shoot, and the latter two have outstanding slashing games to boot. Damian Chong-Qui returns at the point, and while he was an odd fit in Coffman’s scheme as a ball screen dominant guard, he should provide a more fruitful offensive return in his second season immersed in the deep playbook. Quinton Morton-Robertson is an interesting addition as a 5’8 pepperpot of instant offense off the bench behind Chong-Qui, and he’ll fit right in with a scheme that produced the league’s highest catch and shoot rate while knocking them down with the HL’s best efficiency. That 3PT frequency and efficiency isn’t going anywhere with Godfrey, Billups, and especially Bobby Planutis returning, the league’s deadliest floor stretcher.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: PFW struggles mightily at the rim on both ends, and that’s unlikely to change. Ra Kpedi is an efficient dump off/putback guy in Coffman’s offense, but he’s never going to be a focal point, and accordingly the Dons logged the league’s lowest post rate with the worst efficiency- just the nature of the scheme. On the defensive end, Kpedi is a switching big rather than a rim protector, and opposing offenses scored at 1.2 PPP at the rim, the third worst mark in the league per Shot Quality. JUCO import Deangelo Elisee is a potential remedy for the lackluster interior defense.
6. DETROIT MERCY
WHAT I LIKE: Antoine Davis and a plus assemblage of talent around him (I think, as UDM still hasn’t released a finalized roster as of publication of this preview). Davis is of course one of the elite shot makers and scorers in the entire country, an absolute monster on the ball with every shot in the book (and the league’s 2nd highest assist rate when defenses went “Steph Curry” on him). When you have a player like Davis that commands so much defensive attention, the cast around him becomes very important, and his dad has surrounded him with some of the league’s best talent, especially at the 3/4/5, which was much needed. But first let’s focus on Davis’ running mate, where talented options abound as well. TJ Moss is the most likely to start opposite Davis given his talent level as a 6’4 ball handler, but his lacking of shooting is a concern, and Grand Canyon transfer Jayden Stone has more upside as a three point threat, which is more important opposite Davis. The backcourt has depth with Kyle LeGreair returning, and Marcus Tankersley expected to contribute as a frosh as well. Damezi Anderson at the 3 has potential to be a game changer with his athletic, slashing skill set, but he hasn’t shown that to date. Gerald Liddell should start at the 4 after fulfilling some of his potential at Alabama State last year. Liddell is a versatile scorer and rebounder, and again, could be a game changer for the Titans. Lastly Arashma Parks enters from Temple, and has the physical tools to be one of the league’s better blocks and boards bigs. With Davis back and the talent level around him elevated, the ceiling is high for Detroit, it’s just a matter of what Davis can get out of enigmatic down transfers like Moss, Anderson, Liddell, and Parks, and how they mesh into an offense that had the 3rd best spacing in the entire country per ShotQuality, and were equally efficient and prolific off the dribble and the catch and shoot (they also had the highest iso rate in the country, but that will happen when you have an incredible shot maker like Davis).
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Detroit’s defense, whether in man or zone, wasn’t good. They gave up the 3rd highest open 3 rate in the league, coupled with the highest post efficiency and 2nd highest rim finishing efficiency in the HL. Parks is Davis’ answer to that glaring issue, but he logged over 20 minutes in a game exactly zero times in his career at Temple.
7. MILWAUKEE
WHAT I LIKE: The athleticism. Bart Lundy has quickly assembled the most athletic team in the league in his first season, which will enable him to quickly deploy his trapping, full court defense- think Buzz Williams but with a higher 3PTA rate on the other end. The athleticism is top to bottom on the roster, with Keon Edwards and Ahmad Rand leading the way. Edwards is former 4 star recruit with pit stops at DePaul and Nebraska, but he’s a 6’8 slasher with ball skills, that’ll play well at this level. Rand meanwhile comes in from Oregon State and will be the best quick twitch big in the league immediately, an absolute wrecking ball around the rim defensively who can translate extremely well in Lundy’s pressure schemes. Throw in returnees Vin Baker Jr and the evolving 7’1 project that is Moses Bol as well as efficient volume rim scorer Jalen Johnson (Alabama A&M), and Milwaukee should be the best defensive frontcourt in the league (which is actually a holdover from the Baldwin era, where the Panthers were the best rim defense in terms of efficiency and frequency). Versatile guards/wings are paramount in Lundy’s scheme, so holdover Markeith Browning will still have a job, but Justin Thomas has an inside track to minutes as a former Lundy player, with BJ Freeman likely a factor early as well (it will be a deep rotation with waves of pressure). Scoring will come from a trio of new backcourt faces, most notably Angelo Stuart who will be Lundy’s go to volume 3PT shooter, and three level scorer Elijah Jamison. Snipe Ratliffe and Zach Howell will have catch and shoots aplenty in this system, and both can knock them down with efficiency.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The transition to the Lundy era reminds of Josh Schertz’s system being put into place in the MVC with Indiana State. Schertz had some moments of extreme frustration trying to implement a positionless, uptempo spread attack in the plodding MVC. The Horizon is similar as a league often dominated by post driven Wright State. While the talent and upside is immense here, not every one of these JUCOs, D2 guys, or reclamation projects will work out.
8. CLEVELAND STATE
WHAT I LIKE: It’s not a TOTAL rebuild from the ashes of the extremely successful Dennis Gates era, as any team with a rotation that deep will have some quality leftover, and Spider Johnson and Deshon Parker certainly qualify. Keeping Johnson in tow particularly was new head coach Daniyal Robinson’s biggest offseason score, as he’s arguably the league’s best blocks and boards guy (although he was a sieve defensively in the post allowing 1.3 points per post possession per Synergy, masked fortunately by the press and zone deployed by Gates at significant rates), and has turned himself into an efficient rim scorer the last 2 seasons. Johnson will be at the heart of what should be one of the league’s most switchable defenses, as Robinson has been a Porter Moser assistant at both Illinois St and Loyola. CSU’s high zone rate (and maybe even press rate) is likely reduced significantly this year, and subsequently one of the league’s highest catch and shoot rates allowed should drop. Robinson has a deep cadre of versatile wings with a TBD pecking order, with the exception of Iowa St transfer Tristan Enaruna. Enaruna is capable of leading the team in scoring as a 3/4 slasher, and can defend multiple positions on the other end. The most likely volume scorer however is Drew Lowder, who will have every opportunity to be one of the league’s highest scoring combo guards. Lowder has proven to be a more than capable scorer at the D1 level in abbreviated stops at Holy Cross and Eastern Michigan, and lit the D2 JUCO ranks on fire last year. Lowder has under the radar all conference potential. Former D1 wings Cam Brooks-Harris and Tae Williams figure to be heavily involved early as well.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: There’s obviously a lot of unknowns with a new coach and almost entirely new roster, and CSU had arguably the strongest “culture” in the league- that’s hard to immediately replicate with a new regime.
9. ROBERT MORRIS
WHAT I LIKE: After just one losing NEC season in 10 years at Robert Morris, Andy Toole has yet to sniff a winning league mark in the Horizon, going just 8-28 in two seasons. Obviously transitioning to a new league through the covid era is difficult, but recruited talent also hasn’t been developed or even kept on campus. That said, Toole seems to have notched a recruiting/portal foothold for this season with high impact additions like Josh Corbin, Trey James, and TJ Wainwright likely making an immediate difference. Wainwright and Corbin join a backcourt that could actually be one of the better units in the league with Michael Green returning as Toole’s primary ball screen recipient in what was the most prolific PNR offense in the league (by far). Green had an incredible month of January, but fell off a cliff as injuries and defections took their toll on RMU’s season. Green’s efficiency should improve with Corbin’s spot shooting (a lethal shooter when given minutes), the continued ascendancy of the slashing Enoch Cheeks, and Wainwright’s ability to work on or off the ball. The frontcourt has been a major issue, as Toole hasn’t stocked the roster with HL size in a league often dominated by post reliant teams. Trey James addresses that as a well built 6’9 block and boards guy with a decent post and face up game offensively. James was buried at Iona, but should start at the 5 from day 1 at RMU, which allows the solid and efficient Khalil Spear to move to the 4, where he’s far more suited as a help side wrecking ball defensively.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: A lot is riding on James’ shoulders, as RMU was absolutely gashed at the rim, post, and boards- his ability to stay on the floor is likely the difference in a top half finish for the Colonials or another bottom tier HL result.
10. GREEN BAY
WHAT I LIKE: Cade Meyer and a potentially very good frontcourt overall. Meyer was the most efficient volume post in the league not named Grant Basile, and if he can continue to develop his midrange/stretch game, he’ll be a quintessential swing offense big man, something that can definitely happen in the famed sophomore leap. Donavan Short meanwhile is Will Ryan’s highest rated recruit, and should be an immediate starter at the 5 as a skilled center (think poor man’s Love/Basile duo). Amari Jedkins brings some athleticism to the 4, and could be a versatile defensive piece as a frosh with a developing offensive game and high motor. This roster is all Ryan players now, so in theory he has the type of guards that can operate in the post within the swing offense, which hopefully means the Phoenix offensive efficiency (which has been brutal) should ascend. That said, I’m not sure who those guys are, as the guard rotation is wide open. Davin Zeigler has the most upside and athleticism on and off the ball, but Zae Blake is the “true PG” and distributor between the two. Ryan Wade flashed some shooting ability at Holy Cross a few seasons ago, but was never consistent or efficient, and brings plus defense. Nate Jenkins meanwhile is a glue guy who can do whatever is needed and obviously knows the system, but Garren Davis is the odds on favorite to start at the 2 because of his shooting ability shown at the JUCO level and size within the system. Brayden Dailey on the wing should have a big role as a shooter (much needed) and versatile scorer overall at 6’7.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Outside of the frontcourt, there are so many question marks and wide open positional battles. I would like to see a little more concrete role allocation for a team that has struggled implementing a very structured offensive scheme.
11. IU INDIANAPOLIS
WHAT I LIKE: The Jags have players! A full roster! Matt Crenshaw should actually be able to practice in full and not scour campus for warm bodies. Boston Stanton is basically the only returning Jag, which is good, because this roster needed to be turned over completely. Well traveled Bryce Monroe will be the PG, and he’s shown an ability to collapse defenses consistently in stops at Sam Houston St and San Diego. John Egbuta and Zach Gunn can shoot the ball on the wing while Canadian import DJ Jackson is big bodied slasher. 3 local kids (the Jarrard twins and Vince Brady) should have immediate roles on and off the ball. Chris Osten has a high major pedigree as the new 5.
WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Talent level is still predictably low, and there’s very little frontcourt upside or depth. It won’t be a total embarrassment of a season for Crenshaw again, but the Jags will be little more than competitive.
Staring at the Floorboards 
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