12/22 Tuesday Thoughts

Busy day at work traveling, so I’m going to only be able to post quickly and sporadically, so apologies in advance…

St. Joe’s and Virginia Tech figures to be a game where the defenses are designed to limit exactly what a pair of one dimensional offenses want to accomplish. Both teams are going to sag off the perimeter/zone and try to limit penetration/trips to the FT line by clogging up the lane for 40 minutes. VA Tech is 4th in FT rate offensively, and 3rd in FT rate defensively, while St. Joe’s is 20th in defensive FT rate. VA Tech actually shots the 3 better than St. Joe’s, but is attempting them at the 15th lowest rate in the country, and basically every make is from dead eye Justin Bibbs, who Martelli can essentially box and one on with any number of lengthy perimeter defenders. Buzz is looking to push the pace off turnovers and pushing off the defensive glass (top 10 FGA rate 0-10 sec after a rebound per hoop-math.com), but St. Joe’s has been a top 30 defense in terms of limiting transition attempts, and their TO rate is a paltry 15%. Without getting to the FT line and without getting in transition, the Hokies are going to have to hit jump shots today in Brooklyn. I think this sets up fairly well for the Hawks. ST. JOE’S -2.5

Turn Trae Anderson into a jump shooter and you’re going to beat EIU with ease. If you don’t have a defender who can stay in front of him or matchup when he’s backing you down without fouling, EIU will stay in the game. Dante Holmes can stay in front of Anderson, and Ingram is versatile enough with his 6’7 length to check him as well. NCC doesn’t even have to shoot the ball well today because they’ll be able to dominate the offensive glass, and that might be their best offense. Defensively things get a little dicier without Copeland anchoring the middle (poor guy suffered another season ending injury). NCC -3.5

New Mexico heads to Hawaii off one of the more epic collapses I’ve ever seen. Up 16 with 6 minutes to go against Rice and they lose by 1 when they called a timeout with none remaining with .1 sec left. And this was at the Pit! There’s no question they weren’t prepared mentally for that game after a rivalry game and before heading to Hawaii, so I’m interested to see how they respond today, especially against a team that does a lot of things they’ve struggled with, and they do them well. They bring a lot of ball pressure and they shoot the three at a high rate and percentage. The Tigers are shorthanded, but those are areas that the Lobos have had mixed results against. The one thing Auburn can’t do is rebound and defend in the frontcourt, and I think that’s where UNM wins this game if they can limit the TOs. I suspect Auburn’s shooting percentage will dip dramatically soon, as guys like Canty are shooting way over their career numbers. At Xavier (don’t get me wrong, UNM is no Xavier) Auburn shot 35% from 3 but only turned XU over at 15% en route to .92ppp in a blowout loss. The Lobos win with similar rates today. NEW MEXICO -3.5

Ball line defense vs pack line defense as Chris Beard returns to Lubbock with Little Rock. Both defenses are essentially accomplishing the same exact thing with slightly different philosophies. They’re not allowing penetration, they’re not allowing easy entry passes to the post, they’re turning teams over at an extremely high rate, and they’re dominating teams in the halfcourt. At this point though, the Texas Tech offense is slightly more advanced as the Trojans can look a little clunky at times incorporating Beard’s motion offense, but it’s not by much, as the halfcourt numbers offensively are incredibly even between these two. I think this is ultimately a one possession game. LITTLE ROCK +4.5 

No AJ and no Ced for Iona today, and likely no Amayo either, which means Iona has an 8 man rotation for back to back games. Surprisingly, they rallied to force OT against URI in this same situation last time out, but fell short of a shocking victory. I wouldn’t count Iona out in this one simply because Much and Williams can still shoot all day vs a UCSB 3-2 that gave up 15 threes on 32 attempts to Akron yesterday. Again, UCSB got zero production out of the frontcourt, and if that’s the case again, Iona is going to be able to extend out on Green, Bryson, and Vincent. With the exception of maybe Green, those guys just don’t get to the rim via penetration enough, and thus, there isn’t any interior production combined with the lackluster frontcourt (Beeler is efficient, he just isn’t a go to threat). IONA -1

SFA has played three straight non D1 games, so it’s tough to get a feel on how Geffrard and Charles are improving in terms of replacing Parker’s production. If Arizona State can handle SFA’s aggressive 3/4 court trapping defense, they’re going to have a layup line today. Big advantage in the frontcourt and on the glass for ASU today, even without Goodman. Arizona State is an outstanding help side defense, and SFA doesn’t have the mobile big to move Jacobson around in the paint within their spread motion attack that creates high percentage looks at the rim. ARIZONA STATE -6

Eli Carter has struggled enough with live ball turnovers to make me think Neubauer’s 2-2-1 zone press (he’s actually been switching defenses a lot in his first year at Fordham and disguising the pressure a bit more than he did at EKU) is going to be successful today. Key is Jerome Robinson for BC being able to come up and help in the middle, and handle the ball (see what Jerome Frink for LIU did). Unfortunately, he couldn’t do that against a similar scheme from UM Lowell, but the circumstances were different, as that was the infamous e.coli game for BC. BC has looked awful on the road/neutral courts, but I have a suspicion they’re going to look better today against the pressure, but Fordham has too many perimeter threats (obviously the health of Sengfelder is something to keep an eye on today too). FORDHAM -3.5

I don’t necessarily think that Troy’s high pressure zone is the scheme to use against a steady, veteran backcourt like Ole Miss, and they’re going to be able to beat it on the back end all day, but I also question the motivation for Ole Miss off a big road win and before a long break that ends with Kentucky to open SEC play. Troy tends to stay in quasi blowouts because they shoot a ton of threes, and those opportunities are going to be available against Ole Miss. TROY +16

Might be looking at this game to statically, but no depth for Southern on back to backs and Omaha can handle their ball pressure better than Southern can handle the Mavs’. OMAHA -2

BYU’s numbers in the halfcourt offensively are actually pretty solid, so I think they’ll fare a little better than I anticipated against Harvard’s outstanding halfcourt defense (4th lowest non transition eFG% in the country). BYU’s defense will give up the 3 in the halfcourt, and if Okolie’s recent offensive outburst becomes a trend, Harvard’s constant issues of trading offense for defense becomes far less exaggerated. BYU’s defense isn’t likely to expose Harvard’s excessive TO rate. HARVARD +7.5

MIAMI FL -16.5

Good matchup for Canisius in terms of scheme offensively, but defensively I’m concerned. Griffs are looking to torch you from outside and throw a high pressure zone at you on the other end, but they haven’t been able to limit teams from pounding the ball inside when they don’t force those turnovers (see Kent State game). Deng is back for ULM and Richard is a master at switching defenses, but the backbone of the defense is forcing you into jump shots and contesting with their versatile length. I think Canisius hits enough shots, but if they’re not turning the Warhawks over, they’re going to get buried inside by an offense that has scored the highest percentage of their points via 2PTFG in the country. Can ULM limit the turnovers? That’s the key tonight. UL MONROE +2.5

Skinner is really forcing the flex offense in there at Kennesaw State now (even though he’s without Pruitt, who would be a key cog in that system). IU meanwhile is coming off their biggest win of the season and will be playing in a completely empty Assembly Hall with the students out of town. I think Skinner is already prepping this team for next year as he’s squeezing in an offense (flex offense pun!) that doesn’t really fit his current roster at all. Dead spot in the schedule for IU, but I think they still win handily. INDIANA -32.5

Simply put, Clemson isn’t nearly good enough offensively in the half court against a Georgia team that’s outstanding defensively when they’re able to get set. Teams that have turned Georgia over and upped the pace of play have generally been able to beat Georgia because they made them move. If you’ve seen a Clemson game in the Brownell era, you know that’s not how they operate. At all. Clemson’s style plays directly into Georgia’s strength as a defense. GEORGIA -2.5

UVU has suffered a string of devastating injuries already this year, but they’ve strung together three straight wins and two in a row on the road, but they don’t matchup well with UNCW well in any aspect today. They have issues vs pressure, they can’t stay in front of bigger guards/wings, they’re weak on the glass, and they rely on the three offensively. None of that is a plus against UNCW. UNCW -14.5

Brown heads to Uncasville off a 15 day layoff, while Marist is on a quick turnaround from their highest possession game of the year. Army missed 31 threes against Marist and the Red Foxes had a career game from Brian Parker. Brown actually takes threes at a higher rate than Army. If they miss 31 they’ll probably lose too. Brown is without Daugherty and one of the Massey twins (I get them confused, but it’s the one that shoots threes, Justin I think), so they’re down two shooters, but Brown is extremely familiar with Maker’s modified Princeton offense. BROWN -2

Seton Hall is a let down candidate after the big OT win over Wichita State, but USF is so bad and shorthanded without Peters. They have one capable shooter, FR McMurray, and he’s as streaky as it gets. They have a ton of height, but they’re playing a 7 man rotation without a PG. SETON HALL -16

Generally speaking, I’m always going to give IPFW a chance against a zone. They beat up Cal Poly’s matchup zone with the flu all the way across the country, but their inability to pressure WMU and keep them from pounding the ball inside as Hawkins is prone to do is a cause for major concern defensively. Expect a ton of sagging zone from the Dons tonight. WESTERN MICHIGAN -5

Wright State is getting healthier (slightly) and they’re playing Billy Donlon defense (ie bringing the bigs up to the free throw line to deny penetration and allowing the perimeter to stay on the three point line after a wave of ball pressure). Hard to fathom, but I think Murray State loses their fifth game in a row, as they don’t have the shooters to keep Donlon from adjusting and doubling Langston in the post if he’s going off. WRIGHT STATE -2

Have to beat NC State by hitting jump shots, and that’s about all UNC Greensboro does offensively. The problem is they haven’t been falling consistently (it would help if Byrd could hopefully emerge from the protocol). If the mobile Locke and Smith can hit a few jumpers, UNCG can compete tonight. UNC GREENSBORO +17

Quick turnaround from a close loss in Seattle for Tennessee, but ETSU is horrific in transition defense, and nearly as bad in the halfcourt. TENNESSEE -11

Tennessee State is going to zone a really poor shooting Illinois State team all night in the Dana Ford Bowl, but they allow too much in transition via live ball turnover to beat a team on the road that thrives in transition. Think you’ll see Illinois State sort of reset tonight to end a very disappointing non conference season. Maybe Jordan Reed tonight?  ILLINOIS STATE -8.5

Generally, I like this Montana State team, but they’re a little too reliant on Colbert’s penetrate and kick game setting up some spot shooters for me to trust them against the 2-3 tonight. SYRACUSE -19

St. Bonaventure has Jordan Tyson back and Jay Adams will suit up tonight in the Franciscan Cup. The addition of Tyson allows Schmidt to utilize his modified pack line principles, which is also going to limit Siena’s flex offense. I think the Bonnies get some revenge at the TUC. ST. BONAVENTURE +1.5

I just don’t know what to make of UTEP at this point after an embarrassing home loss to a shorthanded Norfolk State team. The Miners can’t hit a jumper and they can’t keep Vint out of foul trouble so the interior play is inconsistent. The good news is they play a Sam Houston team that hasn’t recovered offensively from the loss of Jackson and Baxter. UTEP -4

I don’t think Wake Forest can handle an offense that spaces the floor as well as Xavier does, and the Muskies can keep Wake from pushing off the defensive glass (the offensive rebounding battle on both ends is going to be highly contested tonight). However, XU is going to have trouble getting to the FT line as frequently as they have been early this year (13th highest rate in the country), which means if the jump shot isn’t falling tonight on the road (which Wake’s sagging defense tends to give you), then Wake is going to have a chance. I’m not really sure what Wake’s path to offense is if they can’t push off the D glass or score at the rim. Big game offensively from Bluiett tonight, as he’s too mobile for Hudson to check outside. XAVIER -7

It’s been a major struggle offensively for Old Dominion, and one the last teams you want to see when you’re struggling offensively is Rhode Island, but this is a good matchup for the Monarchs, relatively speaking. Freeman and Bacote can get past that abusive perimeter defense, and having Stith back changes the complexion of the offense around the rim. OLD DOMINION -1

Great game with Iowa State visiting Cincy. Prohm is mixing in a lot more pressure than his predecessor, and that’s been an area that has undermined Cincy’s terrific rim to perimeter defense. Speaking of that defense, you can’t beat it depending on dribble penetration, and that’s not how Iowa State’s offense works. The Clones missed a lot of open jumper vs UNI, and were beat up themselves by dribble penetration in that game. I think both of those situations self correct a bit tonight, but I think the overall length everywhere on the court for Cincy eventually wears ISU down. CINCY -5

FAU gains Delph, loses Turman. That hurts against a defense like Hofstra’s that’s vulnerable inside. I’ve talked at length about how FAU really focuses on taking away the 3 point line, which is the bread and butter of Hofstra’s offense, but overplaying Green and Tanksley outside is going to be a major mistake in terms of dribble penetration. HOFSTRA -14

Villanova was 13-32 from three last year vs this Delaware zone. They’ve been struggling from outside this year, but this is a good game for them to get on track. VILLANOVA -25

100% out of time…

PREDICTIONS (571-431-24):

MTSU +4.5

Oakland +11 (I’m a Greg Kampe sucker)

Indiana State -5.5

Buffalo +13.5

Miami OH +16

Drexel -4

Southern Miss +11

Georgetown -12.5

UTRGV +17

American +20.5

Tulsa -19.5

Memphis -14.5

SEMO +15.5

Austin Peay

Kansas State -17

SMU -10.5

Houston -6.5

Vandy +6 (Two best halfcourt defenses in the country!)

Detroit +3.5 (Two of the worst halfcourt defenses in the country!)

Wichita State -16.5

Cal Poly -10

Rice +2.5

Iowa -20

Butler -26

Ohio State -10.5

Weber State +1.5

UC Irvine -10.5

UMKC +24.5

George Washington -6

Arizona -17

Cal +12.5

South Carolina -14

UC Riverside -5

South Dakota +13

Idaho +5.5

Idaho State +19

Colorado -6

Marshall +4.5

Kansas -7.5

UCLA -27.5

Oklahoma -13.5

Hawaii -4