12/23 Wednesday Thoughts

PREDICTIONS (612-459-26):

The great Howie Dickenman is willing to try any lineup at this point, and even went with little used FR Evan Phoenix against UM Lowell, and it was Phoenix’s 28 points out of nowhere that led CCSU to their first victory of the year. UConn looked disinterested a few days ago against that same UM Lowell team, and they’ll be without Brimah today, but CCSU’s defense is one of the worst in the country, in any regard (well, they do rebound the few shots that don’t go through the hoop). It’s really just a matter of someone, anyone being able to help Cumberlander (I thought he and Peele were going to make a nice high/low duo but Howie has been cutting Peele’s minutes, and if you get games like you did from Phoenix, why not?), and what UConn’s interest level is in terms of the Blue Devils being able to quasi compete today. After slogging through UM Lowell, I suspect Ollie has his team’s attention at least somewhat today. UCONN -31.5

Morehead State and Davidson comes down to who can dictate style of play. Davidson wants a brisk game where the court is spread and they get quick open looks out of their motion offense, while Morehead wants to muddy up the game and be excessively physical in the backcourt. Morehead State has the 8th highest defensive TO rate in the country, while Davidson simply doesn’t turn the ball over. The backdoor is always going to be open against the aggressive Morehead perimeter defense that focuses on taking away the three point line, and that’s where Davidson, a team that shoots 3s at the 13th highest rate in the country, has to exploit the Eagles. Morehead State just shut down another prolific three point offense (though WCU is a different type of perimeter attack), but Morehead doesn’t have the dominant frontcourt that can destroy Davidson’s defense. A lot of Morehead’s offense comes via guard penetration, and that’s not the best route to beating Davidson (again, ask WCU). DAVIDSON -7.5

We know Gary Waters can coach up guards, and that’s exactly what’s happening at Cleveland State this year. FR Rob Edwards is emerging as one of the best young guards in the MAC, and he leads a disruptive, high pressure backcourt that’s going to bother Pep Joseph and Ismael Ali today. CLEVELAND STATE -4

Obviously not ideal to play in the AM on a back to back after an OT game, but I think BYU/New Mexico is going to see a lot of points. Neither defense has been playing well of late, but UNM has to cut the turnovers. You can’t give an offense like BYU extra possessions. The Lobos also need some frontcourt scoring to help Brown/Neal. At this point, they’re basically providing all the offense, but it’s in turn making the team less efficient. Have to be able to pound it inside to Williams and Aget early today, but BYU’s defense is designed to turn offenses into jump shooters (although Edosomwan dominated in the paint last night against the Cougars). Key is Sam Logwood for the Lobos today. He can’t be a negative offensively when he’s out there for his defensive. He had several live ball turnovers that broke UNM’s back yesterday. NEW MEXICO 

Severely shorthanded Iona on back to backs against a very good Akron defense (especially in the halfcourt) doesn’t seem like something that’s going to end well, particularly given how Akron defends the three point line, and Williams and Much are relied on for almost all Iona offense at this point. Dambrot likely pounds the ball inside early to Big Dog (especially with Forsythe out), as Washington/Rountree/Bessick can’t defend in the post without fouling, Washington in particular. AKRON -7.5

The Tournament of Former Pitino Assistants and Players continues in Louisville as UMKC takes on UNCW. Really, we’re being deprived of a much better UNCW/Louisville matchup because UVU and UMKC don’t want to play since they’re both in the WAC. Anyway, Keatts was able to rest his main rotation guys in the blowout against UVU, while UMKC played later against Louisville and were blownout. The Roos also have a shorter bench and turn the ball over at a 22% rate, and they’ll be facing that relentless UNCW pressure. While I’m not totally thrilled at the prospect of UNCW facing a zone press themselves (Keatts and Richardson know each other well), UNCW is just too big and athletic on the wings for UMKC, and too dominate on the glass. UNCW -8.5

I commented on it yesterday, but when Okolie and Cummins can give Harvard efficient offense (it doesn’t have to be a ton), Amaker’s constant offense for defense rotations become eased quite a bit. As always, Tommy McCarthy’s turnovers can be an issue, but it’s particularly problematic against a team like Auburn that thrives in transition. Harvard, despite the early season troubles, has still been an elite halfcourt defense (39.3% eFG), Auburn hasn’t been terrible by any stretch in the halfcourt offensively, but they’re awfully reliant on the three, as aspect that Harvard’s defense takes away because they rarely double the post, which Auburn lacks anyway. Teams that have successfully limited possessions to sub 70 have had a chance to win against the Tigers, and if McCarthy doesn’t totally wilt under the ball pressure, I think the Crimson can do that today. HARVARD +3.5

Something of a dead spot in Monmouth’s schedule after back to back road wins at Georgetown and Rutgers, but the Hawks have a couple of distinct advantages tonight against Cornell. Despite not being an elite rebounding team, no teams attempts a higher percentage of shots 0-10 seconds after a defensive rebound. The Hawks have so many athletic wings that can rebound and push the ball immediately up court that they become very difficult to stop in transition, and Cornell is by no means an elite transition defense. Big Red also misses a ton of shots, and they take them so quickly in the shot clock that this game is going to be played a pace conducive to Monmouth’s strength, as again, they’re an elite transition offense. Cornell has actually been solid at Newman Arena with wins over Lafayette and Siena, but even that combined with the dead spot in the Monmouth schedule isn’t enough for me to overlook how Cornell is going to play directly into the Hawks’ strength. Volume three point shooter FR Matt Morgan is out for Big Red tonight as well. MONMOUTH -10

Another “where’s the motivation” game, but Michigan’s offense against Bryant’s zone is a total mismatch. MICHIGAN -27.5

Another “where’s the motivation” game, but Pitt’s frontcourt and ability to handle WCU’s pressure is a total mismatch. Pitt should have a layup line to the rim tonight, and won’t be challenged on the glass if they are forced to take jumpers. PITT -20

Good to see Hayes Garrity back on the court quicker than expected for UVU, but Louisville is going to crush UVU into a cube on the glass, and UVU overplays the three point line defensively in hopes of generating some pressure because of their lack of height, which is a recipe for disaster against Louisville this year. If Louisville is motivated at all ahead of the Kentucky game on Saturday, they should win by 40+ (teams that pressure the ball/aggressively defend the three point line have lost by an average of 42 points against Louisville this year). [UPDATE: Garrity is out tonight for UVU, but I’ll roll with them tonight in the hopes Pitino actually rests some starters ahead of UK on Sat] UVU +37

Braggin’ Rights usually has something totally insane and unexpected happen, but this is a good matchup for depleted Illinois. They’re basically daring teams to shoot from three by completely sagging off the perimeter and denying penetration, and that’s not Missouri’s game at all. They’re an offense that works best when filtering through Puryear or off Wright/Phillips penetration/trips to the FT line, all of which are going to be mitigated tonight. Defensively the guards just aren’t capable of staying in front of bigger guards (I watched Cat Barber essentially get into the lane at will), and I don’t see how they guard Malcolm Hill tonight. ILLINOIS -5

Third game in three days for both UTRGV and Idaho State, but the Bengals have a deeper bench, are more familiar with playing in elevation, and Bill Evans’ zone will actually be effective against a team that relies on getting the ball to the rim as much as possible. The eligibility of Ot Elmore and the return of Antonio Green means the Vaqueros actually have two competent shooters now, and Shaq Hines has been efficient in the high post, but UTRGV has worn down late in both games in Logan. IDAHO STATE -4.5

Baylor returns home after a drubbing at TAMU, but the infamous Scott Drew zone should actually be effective against massive NMSU, and the Bears are just as strong on the glass as the Aggies. BAYLOR -12

Dallas Anglin has vastly improved Northern Colorado, but they’re still a really bad defense finishing up a southeast road trip before Christmas break. Miss State actually looked like a Ben Howland defense on the perimeter in the 10 min I watched against Tulane. MISS STATE -15.5

Kent State has been trying to pound the ball inside this year (3PTA rate is way down from previous years under Senderoff), but they’re going to run into the same issue tonight against Penn State as last night against SMU, just to a lesser extent. PSU isn’t allowing much of anything at the rim (third lowest FG% in the country at the rim), but they’re having a hard time doing it without fouling (Colorado shot 39 FTs last night, 20 by Gordon and Scott). Conversely, PSU isn’t getting much of anything from the frontcourt offensively, and that’s not going to change tonight against a KSU defense that has been refocused to deny everything at the rim. So basically, this comes down to who hits more jump shots, and both teams have been streaky, at best, from outside, but I think Jimmy Hall gets to the FT line enough to win the game for KSU. KENT STATE +1

Minnesota has struggled when they’ve gone up against a dominant post who can beat the athletic but undersized Murphy, and against bigger, physical guards who can beat the smaller Gopher backcourt off the dribble (they get a little bigger, but less skilled, with McBrayer starting for the injured Dorsey tonight), or blow by the bigger King and Buggs, who Pitino often brings up defensively to stop dribble penetration. Milwaukee doesn’t really have those aspects in their offense. They’re an outstanding three point shooting team that relies on quick perimeter ball movement and reversals. The Panther offense can be a lot of fun to watch, but generally speaking, I think Minnesota deals much better with an east-west offense than against a north-south, paint touch offense. Milwaukee is also a team that you can run on in transition. MINNESOTA -4

It’s somehow possible that this year’s TCU/Bradley game is going to be uglier than last year’s combined 6-27 from 3, 55 FT slop fest in Corpus last year. TCU looked horrendous in their one true road game at Washington (just totally blitzed by UW’s pressure), but Bradley’s not going to expose that tonight. There’s going to be a bazillion missed shots and a bazillion FTs, so I guess I’ll take the team that rebounds better and shoots FTs at a slightly higher percentage, but not by much. Not sure TCU has any interest in being in Peoria for a one off road trip. BRADLEY +10.5

The SSC is going to be electric tonight, and we all remember what happened last year vs Wichita State in this tournament (one of the better regular season games of the year), but Oklahoma is, in my mind, the best team in the country. They’re outstanding at clogging the lane, both denying penetration and entry passes to the post, and they’re a dominant transition offense that will be able to handle the Hawaii press. Basically, you have to get red hot from 3 in order to compete with the Sooners, and outside of Sai Tummala, Hawaii is way too streaky from outside. Hawaii’s going to come out roaring and might even have a decent lead for 20-30 minutes, but Oklahoma will eventually wear the Bows down with depth and length. Looking forward to this one. OKLAHOMA -6.5

In WCC action, Pepperdine’s usually outstanding perimeter defense was torched by Gonzaga, which was surprising, but it doesn’t get any easier for the Waves at Portland, who shoots the three at a high rate and a high percentage. Interested to see how the Waves regroup, but the Pilots had a much more effective interior presence last year, so there’s nothing to really tether the Waves to the paint. That aggressive perimeter defense led to some blow bys from Wintering, but Wilson only had Olden (arguably the best perimeter defender on the roster) for only the first meeting with the Pilots……..I’m not quite ready to absolve Gonzaga of their backcourt issues yet, but they were damn impressive vs Pepperdine, posting 1.57ppp and hitting 16-26 from 3 against the aforementioned outstanding Pepperdine perimeter. They’ll face a different style of perimeter defense tonight against LMU’s high pressure zone. The Zags’ struggles against pressure have been well documented, and it’s nearly impossible to follow up that offensive outburst against Pepperdine, but I have major concerns about how LMU scores when they don’t get in transition…..Pacific is coming off their first D1 win of the year after rallying to beat Santa Clara in OT with an Alec Kobre buzzer beater. Pacific actually posted their second most efficient game of the year against Santa Clara’s zone, and USF’s own zone has been getting torched, but Dev Watson and Tim Derksen should live at the FT line tonight……This is just SMC’s second road game of the year, and I’m not jazzed to go against that ridiculously efficient offense against a zone, but the shooting has to cool off at some point, right? The Gaels are too big and too mobile, and the ball movement from the high post, from reversals, and from high/low action is just outstanding, but if they can keep Rahon out of the lane, maybe they can close out on the shooters a little quicker out of the zone. The Gaels ended the season on a low note by blowing a late lead at Santa Clara last year. PEPPERDINE -2.5, LMU +18, SAN FRANCISCO -1.5, SANTA CLARA +12

First game of the Greg Gard era, and the Badgers should be able to handle the Linc Darner pressure, but they’ve always had trouble staying in front of smaller, quicker guards, as I’m sure every Wisconsin fan remembers Keifer Sykes blowing past slow footed Badgers two years ago, and Carrington Love could very well play that role tonight. If Wisconsin handles the press like a typical Badger team, they’re going to keep Green Bay out of transition and force them to score in the halfcourt, where they’re decidedly less lethal (5th in transition FGAs, 262nd in eFG% in halfcourt). The Phoenix will also have major issues defending Wisconsin’s frontcourt in the halfcourt, and on the glass. WISCONSIN -11.5

Another “where’s the motivation” game in SoCal with USC hosting Lafayette before the holiday break. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Julian Jacobs sit this one out again, but Lafayette’s defense is so porous in nearly every regard, but particularly at the rim and in transition. Offensively the Leopards are running O’Hanlon’s spread motion offense still, but it’s been far less efficient without the outstanding high/low action they could run with the length of Trist and Hinrichs. Lindner has been outstanding at the PG as usual, and Scott and Boykins have shot the ball well, but Zalys hasn’t emerged as that Hinrichs role. USC hasn’t been bad defending the three at all, but it is the area where they’re most “vulnerable”. If you’re dependant on getting the ball to the rim, you’re not going to score against the Trojans, so there is at least a path to offense for the Leopards tonight, but that defense is a sieve. USC -23

I’m not high on Utah State at all, but they’re playing an NDSU team on their third straight game in elevation, and they’re shorthanded (no Kory Brown again). We saw NDSU completely run out of gas in a similar but way less intense situation at USM earlier this year. USU is fairly saggy on the perimeter, and NDSU focused on pounding the ball into Werner last night,but USU has Elston Jones back for a little more interior depth, and the loss of Brown is significant against a USU team that can shoot from outside. UTAH STATE -6

Good matchup for CSUN at San Diego tonight. Lamont Smith is emphasising aggressive man to man at USD, but CSUN is basically an auto-zone offense. Attacking and getting to the FT line is the one thing they can do consistently on offense, especially with Kendall Smith eligibile (although they’re battling some other injuries in the backcourt now, but Jerron Wilbut is supposedly finally eligible tonight). This is a similar defensive scheme to what CSUN saw at Portland State, and one that they had success against in a nice road win. Defensively, USD isn’t really equipped to expose CSUN’s zone. They shoot a ton of threes, not by choice but by necessity, and they only hit them at 28% as a team. CSUN +2

Colorado is a vastly improved perimeter shooting team, and that’s going to come in handy vs SMU’s zone, but #TadBall won’t be able to fully operate. The Buffs push off the defensive glass as much as anyone in the country (4th in FGAs 0-10 sec after a defensive rebound per hoop-math.com), but SMU is an outstanding offensive rebounding team, and is 8th nationally in limiting transition attempts 0-10 sec after a defensive rebound. A lot of Colorado’s improved perimeter shooting has come via paint touches with Scott. That’s going to be difficult against the Mustangs tonight. SMU -5

I think this is a good matchup for Northern Iowa to bounce back in Hawaii. Wazzu REALLY struggled keeping the quick, aggressive Perrion Callandret out of the lane when they played Idaho, and with Wes Washpun it’s virtually impossible for anyone to stop him off the dribble. Additionally, any UNI team is going to have big shooters who can pull the freak shot blocker Izundu and Hawkinson away enough to open things up further for Washpun. UNI’s defense, when they’re right, turns teams into jump shooters, and Wazzu wants to exploit you with their athleticism, not with jump shots. UNI has often looked rattled against pressure (they were a disaster last night against Hawaii), and Kent wants to get going in transition, so the secondary ball handlers like Lohaus (who really struggled last night) have to be prepared, especially against quick handed Charlie Callison, who has one of the highest steal rates in the country. If UNI is discombobulated again against pressure, they’re going to get ran off the SSC floor. If they can get this game primarily in the half court, they’re going to negate the Wazzu athleticism and force the Cougars into jump shots they’re not comfortable taking. The “pressing” issue is who can help Washpun against pressure? NORTHERN IOWA -4