The lone regular season meeting between James Madison and Arkansas State was a fairly rote JMU win in Jonesboro, with the Dukes comfortably ahead by double digits for most of the game until a late rally by AState (with the ShotQuality data producing an almost identical analytical box score). As noted several times here throughout the year, Arkansas State is one of the country’s most prolific rim and 3 offenses with Hodgson splitting off from the Oats tree, and the Red Wolves produced ShotQuality’s third highest rim and 3 rate in his first season. JMU however clocks in with a top 15 rim and 3 defensive efficiency rating on a PPP basis on the strength of their drop coverage spearheaded by Xavier Brown’s elite on ball defense and TJ Bickerstaff’s versatility (the top 2 non App State defenders in the league, per EvanMiya’s BPR data, and JMU will actually switch with Bickerstaff a lot too). Of course AState just posted 1.16 PPP on one of the best and most versatile drop 5 defenses in the country, a game where I sort of doubted Caleb Fields’ scoring ability, and he responded with 23 points. The key however was once again Freddy Hicks’ rim finishing ability and shot creation in the middle of the floor, as he’s dominated this tournament in that regard (not to mention his incredible buzzer beater putting AState in this game). Hicks was making his way back from injury in the first meeting between these two, and only played 17 minutes before promptly reaggravating the injury. JMU had their own personnel issues that game, with Bickerstaff logging a season low 14 minutes due to early foul trouble. Although not as prolific as AState, JMU clocks in with a top 50 rim and 3 rate per ShotQuality, and they’re more efficient finishing at the rim out of Byington’s unique on-ball designs (although Hicks’ return to health levels that playing field for AState), but Izaiyah Nelson is an elite paint patroller in AState’s drop. Lean AState on the number with Hicks changing the dynamic of their offense.
ETSU is turning around off a miracle OT comeback against Chattanooga, where they bullied the Mocs with their pressure and offensive rebounding. That was ETSU’s second straight hyper physical game, and now this is their 4th game in 4 days of course, and we could really see Samford’s insane depth and conditioning program pay dividends (although Staton-McCray has barely played in either game of this tournament). Samford swept the regular season, including a blowout at home where Achor Achor and Staton-McCray sat out. ETSU isn’t an efficient zone or press offense, which is of course troubling against BuckyBall, and they scored at just .74 PPP in 47 zone offense possessions against the Bulldogs this year. ETSU’s own press changed the game yesterday of course, and I heard the color analyst during the Samford/Furman game opine that “pressing teams don’t like to be pressed” in regard to Samford when Furman’s late game pressure forced a few turnovers. That statement is of course just a “vibes” thing, as Samford graded out in the 98th percentile in press offense efficiency (per Synergy data), and actually scored at 1.24 PPP in press offense against Furman as they salted the game away. ETSU isn’t a skilled offensive team, as they struggle to shoot the ball inside (10th percentile in rim efficiency) and outside (sub 30% from 3 in SoCon games), but they play hard as hell and have been allowed to be aggressively physical defensively and on the offensive glass, the latter of which could theoretically keep them in the game as Samford naturally struggles on the defensive glass given their defensive scheme. However, what’s kept ETSU in this tournament has been their anomalous 3PT shooting, as they’ve hit double digit triples in all 3 games despite having done that just 3 times total in their 29 regular season games vs D1 competition.
The Horizon scene shifts to Indianapolis, where I should have personally gone to investigate whether or not Tristan Enaruna has been practicing for Cleveland State. His status vs Oakland is still to be determined, but the Vikings steamrolled YSU without him, and their regular season win in a series split with Oakland game with Enaruna posting his worst game of the year from an efficiency standpoint. CSU thrives on isolating their wing size on the offensive end, which naturally makes them a pretty poor zone offense (9th percentile in zone offense efficiency at a 91st percentile rate in the zone happy HL), and they score at just .85 PPP in over 100 zone offense possessions against Oakland this year. CSU won the first meeting against Oakland in the opening game of HL play by hitting an atypical 12-24 from 3 over Kampe’s zone with Enaruna not producing much offensively. The return game in Oakland saw the Vikings get blown out with Enaruna dominating the offense. His absence against YSU meant more minutes for Chase Robinson, who promptly knocked in 4 triples and forced the Penguins out of their own zone. Blasphemous to perhaps suggest CSU is better off without him in this particular matchup, but there is certainly some small sample evidence to give it a little backbone. Oakland is a very iso and post heavy offense, two areas CSU’s defense has struggled (although their pressure denies the post well), and the Grizzlies weren’t particularly affected by CSU offensive glass crashing (in fact Oakland out rebounded them on the O glass in both meetings) or their ball pressure.
Milwaukee scored at .93 PPP in over 100 zone offense possessions against Northern Kentucky this year in a season split, but Milwaukee cranked up their own zone pressure in their rematch at home after getting blown out in the first meeting at NKU (the Horizon is a league of extreme defenses). Two elite ball screen creators in BJ Freeman and Marques Warrick, and both have been two of the best offensive players in the entire country over the past month. Both defensive schemes however deny ball screens at the almost identical rates, but NKU’s infamous zone is the far better defensive unit overall in this matchup, especially with Itejere back from a wrist injury to battle against Fields and shore up the back end of the zone. The Norse have been here and done this before, and I trust Warrick vs pressure more than I do Milwaukee vs zone.
The Towson/Charleston series since Kelsey took over has been a wild roller coaster, with Towson sweeping two years ago then getting swept in three incredible battles last year including the Cougars knocking Skerry’s squad out of this tournament. These two split this year, with Towson handing C of C one of their two home Ls, a game where Towson shot an uncharacteristic 10-19 from 3 while Charleston was 8-28 (Charleston more than returned the favor by going an absurd 15-22 from 3 in the return meeting at Towson). Charleston’s positionless brand of basketball has been both a blessing and a curse against Towson’s ball screen traps, as their lack of a true PG can lead to some helter skelter moments, but their spacing, ball movement, and shooting ability can really exploit the vacated spots on the floor vs that scramble. Skerry moving the frosh Williamson on the ball full time changed the game against UNCW, but Kobe Rodgers is an elite on ball defender with a size advantage (nearly on par with Nendah Tarke, Skerry’s trapper in chief). C of C’s rim defense continues to be their major bugaboo, and Towson is fully capable of exploiting that.
The other CAA semi features The Battle of Long Island Part III, a series Hofstra has won every game since Stony Brook became a CAA member, but the Seawolves held substantial double digit leads in both games this year. These are two of the lowest rim rate offenses in the entire country (in fact Stony Brook owns the lowest rim rate nationally per Synergy data and the lowest near shot attempt rate per Haslam), so there’s a lot of volatility in a what will be a jump shooting/iso creation contest (both offenses own 90th percentile iso rates). Stony Brook plays through their two posts a lot, but Hofstra doubles the post at one of the highest rates in the country, so Stony Brook’s ability to win this game likely comes down to the passing of Maidoh (who dominated on the block when Amari Williams went down yesterday) and Fitzmorris. SBU should have won at Hofstra if not for a late collapse and Tyler Thomas buzzer beater, but they built their lead on 5 assists from their posts and 12 three pointers out of the doubles. In the less competitive game, Stony Brook hit 5 threes on 2 assists from their posts. Stony Brook of course has the disadvantage of having played a 2OT game yesterday while Hofstra cruised past Delaware.
Very little defense played overall in the Denver/Omaha season split, which winning on the road. Frankie Fidler’s iso ball was unstoppable in both games, going for 63 total points, but Denver spammed PNR with the elite Bruner/Tainamo screen and roll game vs Omaha’s morphing zone traps. Denver had some success defensively with their zone in the first meeting, but had to abandon it quickly in the rematch with Tony Osburn drilling wide open triples with Fidler in the middle of the floor. Osburn was presumed out for this tournament, but he made a surprise return against North Dakota, and his presence likely keeps Denver out of zone. Denver played a little gamesmanship with UMKC, keeping the previously injured Bruner off the floor for shootaround and early warmups, only making a dramatic appearance late in the layup line as the only player with his jersey number exposed (per my man on the scene and St. Thomas writer @SamGoaley). Bruner scored 16 inefficient points with 6 turnovers in that game, but UMKC’s defense is far more physical than Omaha’s. That said, Omaha showed major adjustment defensively in how they took away Tainamo as a roller in the rematch, while Denver didn’t/couldn’t adjust to Fidler, and I think he’s likely to carry the Mavs again.
Here’s what I wrote from South Dakota State and St. Thomas’ first matchup back on Jan 11: The Summit has barely ventured into league play, but St. Thomas and South Dakota St are already the only teams without a loss, and both look the part of very legitimate season long title contenders. The Tommies are going to grind you into a pulp in the halfcourt with a meticulous Princeton motion based offense, while SDSU is going to run one of the country’s better continuity offenses, and both will be working against hyper compact defenses that are terrified of being exposed on the dribble and at the rim, making this a potential jump shooting contest with both offenses comfortable playing 5 out (Kyle’s usage here by Henderson is a bit of an “x-factor”, as he can dominate the Tommie frontcourt but struggled in both matchups last year defensively). Henderson has praised his team’s performance since the return of “glue guy” Mims to the lineup, and that’s shown with a blowout of UND to open league play and a split in the Big Sky series where they nearly had an improbable comeback at Weber and then smoked Montana State in what very easily could have been a lay down spot. The Tommies meanwhile are 2-0 in league play and should have a raucous crowd at tiny Schoenecker Arena, but they’ve also benefited from two sideways shooting opponents to start Summit play, as UMKC and UND were a combined 13-56 from 3 against their compact defense- SDSU is capable of flipping that in a hurry. One big difference for the Tommies in the series this year is the addition of Anthony, who gives them a big, burly on ball presence to matchup against Zeke Mayo, that’s potentially the difference in the game tonight. Both defenses maintained minuscule near shot rates throughout the season, as both were lodged in the top 20 in that regard per Haslam. The issue is that while St. Thomas’ on-ball defense improved with Anthony, it wasn’t enough to keep Mayo from collapsing the defense on the dribble and making the Tommies pay with their spacing on kick outs. Of course the Tommies also sport a top 20 spacing rating per ShotQuality data, and their ability to invert and unpack SDSU’s compact help defense led to offensive success- it’s hard to play dribble denial against a team that doesn’t dribble, and the lowest offensive output between these two teams in the sweep by the Jacks was 1.1 PPP.
Staring at the Floorboards 
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