11/26/23 SUNDAY NEWS AND NOTES

Truly rapid fire one liners today, as I’m typing this out on my phone while traveling and it’s not a pleasant experience…

• Iowa State and Texas A&M are 1 and 6 respectively in Haslam’s near shot attempt rate allowed, so hitting jump shots and rebounding are extremely important today, as is turnover rate with both defenses elite in pressure and denial. Iowa State is the more rim reliant offense with a 96th percentile rim rate, but the Aggies are dealing with substantial injury issue after Coleman turned an ankle Friday and Radford was having trouble breathing.
• Both VA Tech and FAU nuked the aforementioned compact defenses from 3. FAU is still potentially shorthanded, although Boyd and Rosado are now upgraded to “questionable”, but FAU’s offense is creating significantly better shots than the Hokies per Synergy shot quality data. It should be noted that Mike Young’s offensive scheme has struggled against athletic, hedging bigs, but FAU typically drops Goldin.
• Boise State’s PG issues are glaring, as their best offense has come with Rice on the ball or filtering through Stanley in the post of all people. That’s problematic against Posh’s on ball defense, but Butler’s smaller backcourt and defensively challenged wings are at a disadvantage against an offense that will post up with anyone, anywhere. Good game for the Degenhart/Martin/Agbo trio to play bully ball and keep the ball away from Posh’s hands defensively.
• Obviously the storyline in Penn St/VCU is Rhoades/Ace/Kern going against their former team. Both of these offenses are shooting threes at rates unbecoming to their current personnel, but VCU has a decided edge in the quality of those shots, as Synergy data shows a 22% high quality shot rate compared to just 9% for PSU (although Nelson has been ruled out for the Rams), while the Rams are attempting unguarded jump shots at a 95th percentile rate while scoring just .9 PPP on those shots. VCU’s press offense and alarming turnover rate against one of the country’s best and most prolific pressure schemes is the glaring issue here, and this is the type of game Ace lives for. Ace and Clary are theoretically strong creators against the increasingly elite and athletic drop of Fermin/Lawal, but PSU’s rim protection is abysmal/nonexistent.
• Great matchup of elite PNR defense in UIC vs an elite and prolific PNR offense in UNCG. GW’s multiple shot creators had some success against UIC, but were 3PT varianced out of the game, and I noted the two way regression heading UIC’s way. UNCG’s shifting defensive schemes can be a tough quick prep, but the Flames have seen a not insignificant amount of zone and pressure, and performed efficiently against both. That two way regression is potentially pushed along today however with the b2b2b with basically a 6.5 man rotation against a defense that forces you into contested jump shots. I like UNCG here to force regression’s hand.
• Harvard is creating an 85th percentile unguarded jump shot rate and 25% high quality shot rating, mostly off FR PG Mack’s uncanny dribble penetration. That’s extremely troubling for an Indiana defense that can’t stop dribble penetration and overhelps on balls past POA. Harvard also effectively plays two bigs, key against the hi-lo action of Reneau and Ware. Indiana’s jump shooting probably can’t continue to be THIS bad (.62 PPP on unguarded jump shots is an absolute joke for a P6 program) and the Hoosiers do own a 25% high quality shot rating, just like the Crimson. However, the game isn’t at Assembly Hall, and I can easily see the Hoosiers losing the 3 point math problem once again, especially with Harvard having the best guard on the floor. Maybe Woody spares the Hoosiers with another gimmick defense today.
• Minnesota has built up an elite rim defense against some inferior competition, but that will be tested at the Chase Center against a San Francisco offense that creates an insane amount of easy looks at the rim (particularly Mogbo dunks) with elite cutting action off dual playmakers on the ball screen. Mongolian Mike and Williams are both extremely susceptible to ball pressure (and can often be incapable of making the simple play), but the Gophers don’t bring much of that outside of the quick handed Hawkins. Much of Minnesota’s offensive schemes center around Garcia’s mobility, but Mogbo is one of the most unheralded switchable 5s in the country.