11/7/2022 OPENING NIGHT MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

MEMPHIS @ VANDERBILT

I project both teams to struggle offensively to start the season, and both teams to really hang their hats on the defensive end, at least to start the season. Stackhouse is extremely well regarded for his offensive play designs, but the loss of Pippen obviously leaves a Grand Canyon sized void in the returning offensive production within that system. Eventually I think the Dores figure things out offensively when the talent of Colin Smith gets acclimated, but until then Stack is working with role players from last year and expecting a lot from Jordan Wright and Liam Robbins (who should play a major role defensively at the rim in this particular matchup). I’m particularly concerned about Ezra Manjon against Memphis’ elite, athletic ball pressure, as he hasn’t faced a power conference defense (and certainly not a defense like Memphis’) in three years due to UCD’s extremely limited OOC covid scheduling. Vandy’s offense reportedly struggled immensely against Georgia Tech’s pressure and especially vs their unique zone in a secret scrimmage, while Memphis looked horrific offensively in an exhibition against Christian Brothers. Post game Penny stated that Memphis was purposefully not running any offense and just trying lineup combinations, but the perimeter shooting concerns seemed warranted regardless. Outside of Kendric Davis (who sat out the most recent exhibition to rest an ankle sprain) and DeAndre Williams, I’m not really sure what Memphis has to offer offensively, especially with Damaria Franklin’s NPO still unsigned by Yaklich and UIC. This is the highlight of the opening night slate, but it’s not going to be aesthetically pleasing to watch.

KENT STATE @ NORTHERN KENTUCKY

Kent State was scored only .8 PPP in their zone offense last year, the second worst rate in the MAC and accordingly they saw the most zone in the league (essentially a three way tie atop the league in terms of zone offense rate per Synergy). That’s problematic against the uniquely morphing, extended NKU zone. The Norse zoned at the 5th highest rate nationally with a top 10 defensive efficiency among teams with over 300 zone possessions per Synergy. Both teams are reliant on their offensive glass work, but both are looking to replace key members of their frontcourt (although Senderoff always has high level athletes ready to plug into the frontcourt, and the Norse naturally struggle on the D glass out of their zone). Of concern for the Norse in this matchup? PG play. Sincere Carry is as good as it gets on the ball in the midmajor ranks, and while NKU has immense talent in the backcourt between Sam Vinson and Ques Warrick, they’re reliant on Xavier Rhodes making a substantial JUCO jump to be a true ballhandler, and he draws the MAC’s best perimeter in Malique Jacobs (2nd highest projected DBPR per EvanMiya).

COLGATE @ BUFFALO

The Raiders’ defense has typically struggled in OOC play, as Langel’s “skill over athleticism” program ethos can be exploited by non Patriot foes, a league usually low on the athletic spectrum. Buffalo is essentially the opposite of Colgate in terms of how they build their programs, and Whitesell has nearly wholesale changes on his roster, but the high major athleticism is still omnipresent, as will be the nonstop rim onslaught (2nd highest close shot proximity rate per Haslametrics last year). Colgate’s elite spread PNR offense lacks the clear cut alpha ball screen dominator of Burns/Cummings to start the year, but frosh Braeden Smith reportedly impressed all summer and in Colgate’s secret scrimmages. That said, he’s still a frosh and and we likely see Tucker Richardson as the primary ball screen recipient to begin the year. Very similar situation of “execution vs athleticism” when Buffalo traveled to North Texas and surprised Mean Green early in the season last year, except the Bulls are at home in this scenario. Of note, LaQuill Hardnett didn’t dress against Daemen and hasn’t been practicing, leaving his status unknown for this one, and making the Bulls shorthanded in the frontcourt with Sy Chatman likely unavailable until MAC play.

HOFSTRA @ PRINCETON

Hofstra obliterated Princeton in PNR in this game last year, scoring 1.12 PPP out of ball screens at a prodigious clip (per ShotQuality). I don’t project Princeton to be any worse defensively than last year, but I also don’t project them to be significantly better- Estrada and the elite Pride PNR attack should be able to score when they want here. The Princeton motion did create 17 open threes and 24 catch and shoot threes out of 27 total attempts, so it’s not like Hofstra’s own soft defense was doing much either.

SOUTH DAKOTA STATE @ AKRON

Lost in the dominant offensive season the Jacks posted en route to a clean sweep of the Summit was how good Dentlinger and Appel were in the post defensively (and you can add Mors to that list as well, as EvanMiya projects him to have SDSU’s highest DBPR in the frontcourt), and that’s the key here against Akron, who returns a beast on the block in Enrique Freeman (second highest post volume in the MAC with the best efficiency, and the best post defender in the league as well). With Freeman at the rim, the Zips really extend on the perimeter and switch 1-4, forcing offenses to really work deep into the shot clock, which isn’t how SDSU’s elite continuity offense prefers to operate. The Jacks reportedly struggled with the length, speed, and athleticism of Milwaukee in a secret scrimmage, but that’s not really a concern against the Zips, who will likely start three 6’1 guards and play incredibly methodically offensively, matriculating the ball to the post in the halfcourt- but there is likely some wonkiness from SDSU’s offense as Mayo and others adjust to higher usage roles, especially against a muddying defense like the Zips.

CHATTANOOGA @ CHARLESTON

With Dan Earl taking over at UTC and Pat Kelsey establishing C of C as one of the country’s most transition reliant programs, this game has KenPom’s highest projected possession total (tied with Marshall vs Queens). While I expect the Cougars will be improved defensively this season with the addition of Jaylon Scott, C of C’s PNR defense was absolutely abysmal last year, and Jake Stephens especially could eat on the roll. The Cougars did allow the 2nd lowest catch and shoot rate in the CAA last year, and Earl’s VMI was second nationally in open c&s rate per ShotQuality, but C of C was bombed off the bounce, and Earl’s offense is nearly just as prolific and efficient in that regard as well. VMI wasn’t a particularly noteworthy transition defense, but Earl did play a lot of matchup zone and extend clock eating pressure, but that isn’t something he’s likely to continue at the same rate in Chattanooga after inheriting a higher level of athlete from Lamont Paris.

MARSHALL @ QUEENS

As they enter their first D1 season (and with a new coach), Queens profiles as a slightly less athletic EKU, a team Marshall ran out of their own gym last year, and the Herd was not a good basketball team last year. First D1 game and they’re hosting, so there’s going to be a little extra juice for the Royals, but a transition reliant D’Antoni offense isn’t the ideal first opponent, especially given Queens’ projected style (they would have allowed the second highest transition rate in the ASUN last year, behind only EKU).

LONG BEACH STATE @ CALIFORNIA BAPTIST

Rick Croy did a really nice job adding some much needed athleticism and brute strength to his roster, and that’s even accounting for the loss of Akin. That extra muscle will come in handy immediately against the Beach, whose pressing 1-3-1 generated the Big West’s most efficient defense last year. However, you certainly don’t want to zone the Lancers, an elite catch and shoot and ball movement offense who produced top 50 efficiency and frequency rates in open c&s last year (per ShotQuality). Taran Armstrong will turn the ball over against the pressure, but it’s essentially a bucket darn near every time he doesn’t against this defense. Two years ago CBU scored 96 points in 74 possessions against this defense (albeit a lesser version of), and that was pre-Taran (although Gak was an absolute monster at the rim in that game). Generally speaking, I think CBU vastly underperformed and LBSU substantially overperformed last year, and I could see them mostly swapping their analytical rankings this year (although LBSU’s projected drop wouldn’t be that extreme in the most likely scenario). Of note, Joel Murray left LBSU’s secret scrimmage with a wrist injury, and while it’s believed to be minor, his status is obviously something to monitor.

TULSA @ OREGON STATE

Lot of unknowns in this game, as the Konkol era begins in Tulsa and Wayne Tinkle looks to revamp his dreadful roster from a year ago. OSU already lost Christian Wright, who was expected to be the offensive alpha this year, but I sense the Beavers might actually be better off long term with the frosh Pope on the ball. That said, this is a tough first matchup for a freshman PG, as the days of Tulsa’s matchup zone under Haith are long gone with Konkol expected to extend ball pressure. I like Tulsa’s backcourt/wings well enough, but their frontcourt likely isn’t close to AAC level. Injuries to note: Dalger and Pritchard haven’t been practicing for Tulsa, but indications are the injuries are minor and the rest precautionary.

SOUTHERN UTAH @ NEW MEXICO

A plethora of potential points here, as neither defense is really set up to slow the strengths of two high octane offenses. SUU would have graded out as the WAC’s second least efficient PNR defense per Synergy last year, and if you can’t slow House and Mashburn ball screens, they’ll bebop and scat all over you. UNM’s rim defense was putrid last year, and Todd Simon’s offense is centered around individual creativity on the dribble drive. Udeze is the potential stop gap at the rim and the glass for Pitino, and this will be a good litmus test against an athletic group of rim runners and relentless rebounders.

UTAH VALLEY @ UTAH STATE

I project UVU to actually be better than last year despite the loss of Aimaq, as I think a healthy Woodbury provides better offensive balance and Bandaogo’s length and athleticism at the rim defensively is being undervalued, and Madsen won’t have to drop in PNR like he did last year (especially with the addition of Small from Tarleton), which should improve an overall miserable PNR defense (although that hardly matters against USU’s inventive off ball cutting offense). USU meanwhile is an early analytical darling despite some significant losses, clocking in at 68 per KenPom ratings. Odom’s offensive system has some plug and play aspects to it however, and it is a difficult scout to dive right into, especially with a new cornerstone defensive piece in Bandaogo at the rim. Very interesting game.

RICE @ PEPPERDINE

The young Waves were clueless defensively against Scott Pera’s outstanding high post motion stuff in the opener last year, so they should theoretically be more prepared this time around, plus Maxwell Lewis didn’t suit up in that game. Rice meanwhile projects as CUSA’s worst defense, and should be wildly overmatched against Romar’s pair of NBA level combo wings- a real system vs talent matchup.

ORAL ROBERTS @ ST. MARY’S

Elite PNR actions all over both ends of the floor, but this the best 1v1 defensive matchup Abmas will face all year (outside of maybe the trip to Houston) with Logan Johnson sic’ed on him. Two big matchup areas to watch… 1) ORU is elite creating shots off the dribble (highest off the dribble 3 rate with the second best efficiency per ShotQuality), and while SMC has been eliminating the 3 point line as a key tenet of Bennett’s program for years (lowest catch and shoot rate allowed in the country last year), they are vulnerable vs the dribble. 2) ORU was abysmal defensively in the post last year, and despite the loss of Tass, Saxen is poised to step right in and maintain the Gaels’ top 50 post and rim rates. How many minutes can Vanover bring, and more importantly, how effective are they? This is where the loss of Lufile hurts, as poor DJ Weaver is once again forced out of position, and Mills might be forced to trade offensive matchup problems like Mwamba for more minutes from Herron if the Gaels are successfully running everything through the block.

PENN @ IONA

I noted earlier on twitter that Jordan Dingle has been in a boot for some time, and he didn’t participate in Penn’s latest scrimmage (although Clark Slajchert did). All of the Ivies are notoriously tight lipped about injuries, but the Penn message board suggests Dingle could be back for the opener against the Gaels. Obviously it’s hard to judge this matchup without a clear sense of his status (led the Ivy in usage and shot rate), but assuming he plays, Iona has a perfect defensive foil for him in JeanLouis (assuming he’s not in Pitino’s doghouse already). Generally speaking, this Penn team figures to be a much more cohesive unit as Donahue was never able to field his actual frontcourt last year. Lorca-Lloyd is reportedly as healthy as he’s ever been, and Donahue’s free flowing motion becomes even more dangerous with a legitimate athletic rim presence. For Penn, the defense of George Smith and Lucas Monroe vs Daniss Jenkins is key, as he’s the clear offensive engine for Iona this year, and both are plus defenders with length.

SEATTLE @ UC SAN DIEGO

Tough matchup for UCSD, even with Trammell gone for Seattle (who absolutely torched them off the dribble in last year’s meeting). UCSD’s spread PNR ran into major trouble against the Redhawks plethora of switchable length at the 3/4 and even 5 (granted, Rocak was hurt for that game, but he’s since moved on anyway). UCSD ran PNR on nearly 50% of their possessions per ShotQuality’s box score, and scored a paltry .7 PPP while doing so, and while Trammell is gone, the Chris Victor’s wing length/versatility remains.

YOUNGSTOWN ST @ CANISIUS

YSU absolutely smothered the Griffs in their meeting last season, holding Canisius to a ridiculous .61 PPP, the worst mark of the entire Reggie Witherspoon era (and the worst offensive game for the Griffs since 2007). The crazy thing is YSU didn’t even defend ball screens all that well last year, which is key against the Godfather of the Continuity Offense, but they held the Griffs to .74 PPP out of ball screens per ShotQuality. To make matters worse for the Griffs, Malek Green scored 19 of Canisius’ 43 points in that game, but now suits up for the Penguins. Not all hope is lost for the Griffs I guess, as Tahj Staveskie has reportedly been a dynamo on the ball this summer and is expected to revamp the offense, and point-center Jacco Fritz didn’t play in the meeting last season. Fritz has the 5th highest projected OBPR in the MAAC per EvanMiya, and was 7th in that rating last year (he is however a void defensively). YSU dominated the rim in their blowout win last year, and there’s little reason to think they can’t do that again this time around.

AIR FORCE @ BOWLING GREEN

Air Force’s style on both ends of the floor (extended matchup zone defensively, Princeton motion offensively) isn’t an ideal first opponent, especially if your coach isn’t exactly known for his x’s and o’s acumen. This explains Air Force’s early OOC dominance last year after Joe Scott actually had an offseason to implement his schemes. Bowling Green’s zone offense numbers actually weren’t as bad as I thought they’d be when I went and checked the analytical sites, but they lost natural zone busters Plowden and Diggs (but did regain PG Metheny). That said, Scott’s zone is unique in that you simply working the ball in and out of the nail isn’t going to work. Additionally, BGSU’s defense wasn’t good in any regard last season, but they were particularly awful defending off the ball, which is of course a problem against a Princeton motion offense. BGSU really needs games to be in the 70s+ possession wise in order to function, but Air Force played in just two 70+ possession games last season (and the Army game only crept over 70 because Scott eased up his style late in the blowout win).

GEORGE MASON @ AUBURN

I have some grave concerns generally about Auburn this year. The backcourt’s horrific shot selection last season was mitigated by a generational talent and the extended pressure defensively was anchored by a generational rim protector. I like Broome and Traore a lot, but they aren’t generational players. In short, Auburn’s bottom of the barrel open 3 rate and poor shot selection lack sufficient bail out options this season, and Pearl’s philosophy isn’t to rein in those guards. Focusing more specifically on this matchup, GMU has to be able to mitigate the ball pressure from Auburn, and English’s PG rotation is by far the biggest area of concern in my opinion. Even if GMU is able to manage the TO rate, Oduro finding sustained success against Broome is far from a given, as he held opposing posts to .69 PPP per Synergy, and more than held his own against high level volume posts last year (including Kessler, Norchad Omier, Garrison Brooks, Zach Freemantle, and Nick Muszynski). Defensively, GMU has to be able to pack it in and force the Auburn guards to fire up jump shots. While everything comes off the dribble and iso for Auburn, GMU was poor defending dribble drive reliant teams last year, and graded out as one of the worst isolation defenses in the country per ShotQuality (while forcing the highest iso rate in A10 play is generally a good thing and by product of switching wings, allowing the league’s highest efficiency in iso is not a good thing, especially against Auburn). GMU really needs to be able to force perimeter jump shots, grab the rebound, and beat Auburn down the floor, as you don’t want to let them set their ball pressure (2nd most efficient halfcourt defense in the SEC, per Synergy and 2nd best nationally per SQ). Unfortunately, only Richmond and Davidson had lower offensive transition rates than GMU last season in the A10. Athletically GMU can matchup, especially on the wing, but I’m worried about guard play vs the Auburn ball hawks, which in turn mitigates Oduro (who has his own tough matchup), and I’m not sure GMU can keep Auburn from touching the paint. UPDATE: Broome was hurt at the end of the UAH exhibition and his status is uncertain for Monday night, but it should be noted Cardwell is an excellent post defender and rim protector.

MURRAY STATE @ ST. LOUIS

On paper SLU has very few holes, but one of them is the defense on the wing. Murray State was a highly patterned motion/set play offense under McMahon, but the return of Prohm to the sideline will bring more individual matchup exploitation, and the Racers’ strength will be the wing between Perry/Anderson/White and even Smith. Those defensive issues on the wing for the Bills were reportedly on display in a scrimmage vs Bradley, and Prohm will undoubtedly attack the same area. The problem is I don’t know how Murray defends SLU at essentially any position, and Collins should be able to run wild, and any miss offensively should be vacuumed up by one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country.

UC DAVIS @ CAL

This one should be plenty ugly, as Cal struggled to score against Chico State (albeit a good D2 program) and Clayton was on a pitch count for an unknown injury. Cal’s offense is going to run through Askew and Clayton, for better or worse, but Jim Les defenses are always lock down on the perimeter, and that could continue even with new personnel like Ty Johnson (although Robby Beasley had a substantially negative DBPR last season at Montana). Cal is 33-0 all time against the Aggies.

MONTANA STATE @ GRAND CANYON

Really interesting game. With Blacksher at the helm, GCU was one of the most PNR reliant offenses in the country last year, and Harrison creates a legitimate dribble drive threat off the ball this year. Montana State was the Big Sky’s best PNR defense despite everyone trying to drag Belo away from the rim in ball screens- the Bobs faced the most amount of PNR in the league, but they still graded out as the league’s most efficient overall PNR defense per Synergy. Despite the loss of the Adamu and Mohamed, Sprinkle’s D should still be elite in PNR coverage thanks to the return of Battle, the switchability of Osobor, and the addition of Ford from Idaho State, who graded out as one of the league’s best ball screen defenders when healthy (and unfortunately he has yet to participate in practice/exhibition for the Bobs, so his availability is very much in doubt, Osobor as well sat out the last exhibition game, but he’s expected to be available in some capacity). On the other end, few programs are more reliant on working the ball through the post than MSU, and with alpha block Belo returning, that’s still going to be the case. GCU figures to be a strong post defense with a retooled and healthy Ouedraogo and the versatile McGlothan, and to wit they were top 50 in ShotQuality rim and post efficiency defensively. The Havocs will be in full force for the season opener, and with a hazy PG situation at the moment, the Bobs might be in danger of being rattled from the jump.

SOUTH DAKOTA @ WISCONSIN

Good matchup for the Badgers’ offense, as the Yotes were shredded at the post/rim last year, and Wisconsin is going to have to work through Wahl early and often while guys like Davis, Essegian, Klesmit, and McGee settle into new roles/systems. Carcoana was supposed to be the guy to shore up the rim/post defense in Peterson’s first season (interior defense is always a strong suit from the Craig Smith tree), but he’s reportedly struggled acclimating and wasn’t impressive in the Yotes’ exhibition game, racking up 3 fouls in 10 minutes vs D3 Simpson College. Defensively however, this could be a tough test for the Badgers, as Peterson’s motion will force the slower footed Wisconsin bigs on the perimeter vs Kamateros, and a stellar backcourt of Archambault, Perrott-Hunt, Bruns, and the return of Plitzuweit (although he has a sprained thumb and missed the exhibition, plus he might be on a minutes restriction after the devastating knee injury) can expose some suspect defense on the perimeter from basically anyone not named Hepburn or Davis (especially Klesmit and McGee). Although the good news is USD’s offense is unlikely to force the Badgers to defend in ball screens frequently, which was an issue last year.

WINTHROP @ PENN STATE

Tough blow for Winthrop, as they recently lost Micheal Anumba for the year, per Jeremy Dunlap. Anumba had the league’s 5th highest preseason OBPR per EvanMiya, and was likely one of the best two way wings in the league this year. That said, Winthrop still matches up well here. PSU was over-reliant on ball screen dribble drives last year, taking a bunch of difficult shots off the bounce and I don’t see anything to suggest a major leap offensively from this group, who mostly added solid but limited ceiling midmajor grad transfers like Cam Wynter and Andrew Funk. Winthrop defensively is incredibly switchable and long against the drive with the addition of guys like Howard Fleming (who is projected to have the league’s highest DBPR) and the return to health of Lane and Whiteside, not to mention Claxton’s versatility on the back end. Winthrop lost the shot gravity of Burns in the post and obviously Anumba’s injury makes a sizeable void offensively, but the Eagles led the Big South in nearly every advanced offensive metric, logging first place rates in ShotQuality’s spacing, shot making, and shot selection. Hightower is likely a matchup problem for a new PSU frontcourt, and the backcourt’s propensity to throw the ball all over the gym is mitigated by Shrewsberry’s extremely conservative vanilla defensive scheme. Wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest to see Winthrop win this, even with the recent loss of Anumba.

ST. FRANCIS PA @ ST. BONAVENTURE

Uncharted waters for the Bonnies, as Mark Schmidt looks like he might actually have a rotation with so many undefined roles this year. Judging by what I saw from the exhibition with Alfred (always to be taken with a grain of salt of course), it appears Luc and Banks are the offensive alphas in the backcourt (no surprise), while Barry Evans and Yann Farell are seemingly virtual locks at the 3 and 4- two freshmen. Without Osun as a backdrop in the modified packline/matchup zone, the Schmidt appeared to unleash an insane amount of ball pressure and ball screen trapping, racking up an absurd 21 steals (again, against Alfred, but the scheme does seem to have changed this year, which isn’t a surprise given the coaching acumen of Schmidt). That’s a troubling development for SFU, who lacks a true PG (and least at the moment), and dominant post Josh Cohen’s status is up in the air as he wasn’t allowed to play in NY last season (there have been some recent court rulings regarding vax requirement in NY, and it appears he should be eligible to play, which was confirmed by NEC guru Ryan Peters (@pioneer_pride).

TEXAS STATE @ WASHINGTON STATE

Texas State begins the season in bad shape, as Harrell and the two ballyhooed Florida transfers Kennedy and Gatkek didn’t suit up against Cameron. Harrell and Gatkek’s injuries aren’t serious reportedly, but Gatkek also hasn’t practiced this summer. Kennedy’s status is far less known, but most troubling is that I’m told Nighael Ceaser had some sort of procedure that will keep him sidelined for some time. The tea leaves suggest Harrell will play against Wazzu, which is essential as he knows the cut heavy, ball screen motion offense like the back of his hand, but if Ceaser AND Gatkek are out against major breakout talent Mo Gueye, that would be devastating. Wazzu has their own major injury concerns to start the year with Dishon Jackson out and Justin Powell and Andrej Jakimovski not participating in the scrimmage vs Portland State. Powell would be a devastating loss if his injury does indeed require him to miss some time (while trying to avoid speculation, you hope it’s not concussion related). This is certainly a “lineup check” game on both sides.

NJIT @ ST. PETER’S

Not much will change in terms of St. Peter’s overall philosophy on both ends of the floor with Bashir Mason taking over, as his Wagner teams were routinely top 10 or higher in offensive rim rate (Peacocks were 2nd last year, Wagner 7th per hoop-math) and Mason’s defenses are always hyper aggressive on the ball with extended pressure (although Wagner didn’t have the elite back end rim protection of the Peacocks, who were dominant defensively at the rim on a national level). While rim protection wasn’t a strong suit for Wagner last year, Mason inherits Oumar Diahame at the rim, who owns EvanMiya’s highest DBPR projection in the MAAC. NJIT’s own rim protection is solid as well with the return of Diakite, but my biggest concern with the Highlanders is ballhandling vs Mason’s pressure. Sullivan’s turnovers have always been an issue and while Paul McMillan is expected to eventually be the primary ballhandler (perhaps even immediately), he’s still a frosh playing in his first D1 game vs intense ball pressure, no matter how talented he is. Of some interest, NJIT pasted Wagner 3 years ago, one of only two D1 OOC wins for the Highlanders that year. Obviously that doesn’t mean much, but Kennedy is at least aware of Mason’s style and vice versa.

MANHATTAN @ VCU

I don’t have much to say about the Manhattan situation at this point. Obviously it’s a poor and immature decision by the AD, and it’s a shame she couldn’t wait until after the season for the sake of the players, even if the relationship with Masiello had become untenable. Losing Perez, Silverio, and Diallo is a massive blow of course, as that means the ball will be in the hands of Ant Nelson way more. Besides losing almost all of their offense (and best wing defender), VCU is a horrible matchup for the Jaspers. Manhattan’s press offense was horrific last year, and defensively their own frantic pressure took away catch and shoots, but allowing a massively high rim rate, which plays right into the strength of VCU’s offensive philosophy. At the very least we’ll see what Manhattan has with talented frosh wing Raziel Hayun sooner than expected.

LA SALLE @ VILLANOVA

Both teams are acclimating to new coaches in this Big 5 matchup, but Nova’s transition should have less of a learning curve. Dunphy will revamp the entire offensive philosophy from the Howard era with his trademark free flowing motion, which I’m not really sure he has the pieces to implement fully, as he’s going to have to play a lot of offense-defense with the rotations between the Drame twins, who don’t really project to work in the offense but are elite defenders, and the frosh Jocius, who definitely works offensively but is an unknown defensively. Dunphy hasn’t beaten Villanova since 2012 (Neptune was actually on staff at Niagara, a year away from rejoining Wright’s bench), and his last matchups at Temple in that span weren’t close. All in all I think we say a much more disciplined La Salle team on both ends (the disjointedness and poor preparation from the Howard era was always jarring to see given his coaching pedigree), and Nova isn’t at full strength yet obviously. Unique situation in that there is a lot of scheme familiarity despite both coaches being in year 1 of their current positions.

NORTHERN COLORADO @ HOUSTON

Really similar vibes to Houston’s opening matchup with Hofstra last year, who frittered away what looked like a sure opening night stunner. Like Hofstra, UNC is an elite PNR offense that creates and makes catch and shoots at a high and efficient rate. Hofstra PNR’d Houston to death in that game and doubled Houston’s catch and shoot rate per ShotQuality. Houston’s one defensive “weakness” is the quality of catch and shoots they allow within an uber compact interior defense, and well oiled offensive systems (like Steve Smiley’s at UNC with the return of Kountz, Johnson, and Knecht) can exploit that. The downside for UNC is that it’s going to be hard for them to compete on the defensive end, much like it was for Hofstra in the 2H. The Bears are overwhelmed on that end at every single position, and the integration of a new frontcourt is especially troubling against the relentless glass pounding of the Cougars.

QUINNIPIAC @ RHODE ISLAND

While Dunleavy has to replace Marfo and already lost ND transfer Elijah Taylor for the year, the Bobs’ constantly screening and cutting motion offense can be a difficult prep, especially for a talented but young Rhode Island roster integrating Archie Miller’s modified pack line for the first time (although Miller’s defenses at Indiana were infamously terrible at defending ball screens, a total joke actually*). I wouldn’t be surprised to see Quinnipiac operate efficiently offensively, but I also don’t project a major improvement defensively, which is what the Bobs desperately need.

*spoken by a still bitter IU grad

GAMES I PLAYED:

Howard +25.5

UAPB +35.5

Air Force +3

North Dakota -2.5

NCC +24.5

Marshall -4

Omaha +34

ULM +20.5

Fairfield +12.5

Little Rock +15.5

Idaho St +24

UTRGV +17.5