MISSOURI VALLEY 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. DRAKE– I tend to be down on most of these extremely old squads, and it doesn’t get much older than Drake, because we’ve likely seen their collective ceilings. The Bulldogs however are an exception because of their extremely unlucky health, which has reared its ugly head at the worst possible time the past two seasons. On that note, Roman Penn’s offseason foot surgery went well and he should be in full throttle for the start of the season, and DJ Wilkins’ is progressing ahead of schedule after his latest knee surgery, and should also be ready to go by the season opener. When healthy, Penn is arguably the best ball screen PG in the league, having led the Valley in assist rate two years running before falling to 5th last year while playing on a broken foot practically the entire season. Given the nature of Penn’s injury, it’s incredible he put up the numbers he did last season. Wilkins meanwhile is the best 3 and D in the league if he can rebound once again from a substantial injury. Wilkins canned his Valley threes at a nearly 40% clip while operating as a shutdown corner, routinely defending the best player on the court. Darian DeVries is a great x’s and o’s coach (led the Valley in offensive PPP ATO), and it certainly helped he had some recruiting connections to his son Tucker. The younger DeVries really showed his potential as he took on a bigger ball handling role with Wilkins’ injury and Penn’s nightly limitations. DeVries’ all around game, size, and matchup issues posed make him the favorite for MVC POY. Garrett Sturtz rounds out the Drake nucleus as the league’s- nay the country’s- premier glue guy. Sturtz is basically built exactly like me but led the league in efficiency rating (after two straight seasons at #2), tallied top 5 rebounding rates on both ends, and shot 73% at the rim- HE’S 6’3 (maybe) and 180 lbs (maybe)!!! Sturtz’s value is reflected in Drake’s efficiency splits per hooplens, as they’re a full .11 PPP better offensively when he’s on the floor- just an elite cutter and mover without the basketball, a true joy to watch if you’re into the mechanics of the game. Darnell Brodie is Drake’s nightly wildcard at the 5, as his conditioning and thus effort level seemingly waxes and wanes on a game by game basis. Brodie struggled defensively both in the post and defending in PNR, as his lack of mobility was routinely exploited by the league’s more versatile bigs. Issa Samake’s athleticism could improve the overall frontcourt defense, but he too is battling back from a severe injury, and is a bit of question mark heading into the season. Eric Northweather is an interesting addition to this year’s roster with floor stretching ability at 6’10, something that Drake has lacked during DeVries’ tenure, with the exception of maybe Nick McGlynn. Replacing Tank Hemphill’s athleticism and ball harassment at the top of the extended pressure DeVries often utilizes to change the momentum of games (highest press rate in the league again, per Synergy) will be Sardaar Calhoun. Calhoun is a fantastic addition as a veteran, athletic wing who has been at two different high majors and will fit right in with the “elder statesman” vibes of this Drake team. Drake’s shooting was absolutely abysmal last year, registering at just 30% in MVC play. The Bulldogs actually had the league’s 3rd highest open 3 rate per ShotQuality metrics, but clocked in dead last in spacing and second to last in shot making. The triple isn’t a focal point of DeVries’ offense by any means, but someone has to hit those open jump shots when the lane is packed. Okay Djamgouz can certainly do that with regularity, but he’s a liability everywhere else on the floor. That lack of consistent shooting/spacing and suspect interior play are the few warts on this extremely veteran Drake team, assuming everyone can start and stay healthy.
2. BRADLEY– Buoyed by the MVC’s best defense (.96 PPP in league play, just a tic ahead of Loyola last year), the Braves should once again contend in the top tier of the league IF they can find some consistency on the ball and shooting from the perimeter. Bradley’s frontcourt has a case for best in the league with the most efficient returning post scorer in Rienk Mast (1.1 PPP in the post per Synergy, but can also play efficiently facing the rim as well, more so in fact) and Malevy Leons is a major matchup problem at the 4 if his offensive game becomes more consistent with more volume. Leons posted the 2nd most efficient offensive season in the Valley, but Bradley’s turnover issues on the ball somewhat mitigated his output, as he’s not going to create his own offense. Leons and Mast both shot 70% at the rim, while naturally led to the Braves owning the league’s most prolific rim offense, per ShotQuality. Defensively, Leons was a superstar, if a little behind the curve scheme wise (which should rectify itself with more reps and practice). Leons’ ability to shot block as a weakside rover and defend multiple positions was the key to Bradley’s top rated defensive efficiency, and hooplens clocked the Braves defense at allowing .89 PPP with Leons on the floor, as opposed to .95 PPP with him off (2PT% D improved by 5% with him on the floor). Mast meanwhile recorded the league’s 5th highest block rate and was the best two way rebounder in the league, in addition to his efficient offense. I love the addition of Goanar Biliew for frontcourt depth, as the former JUCO added muscle and brings blocks and boards off the bench, exactly what Wardle wants in his depth chart. Bradley also allowed the lowest open 3 rate in the league, and the 10th lowest nationally. Pair that with allowing .99 PPP at the rim, also a league best mark, and you have a potentially league winning defense that only improves with a hopefully full season from Ja’Shon Henry on the wing. He was only able to log a little over 500 defensive possessions due to repeat concussions, but Bradley allowed just .86 PPP in those possessions. Offense is the major question mark for the Braves, particularly PG play in Brian Wardle’s ball screen heavy offense (2nd highest rate in a ball screen dominant league) and 3PT shooting. Wardle has 3 point guard options in my eyes: Duke Deen brings the most D1 experience and shooting as one of several PGs at Troy last year, JUCO import Pop Weathers has the most pure scoring ability, and 6’7 Max Ekono brings system knowledge and huge upside/matchup issues. Deen and Ekono aren’t going to reduce Bradley’s 20% turnover rate (Troy scored at just .91 PPP with Deen on the floor, as opposed to .98 with him off, including a slightly higher turnover rate at 21%), and Weathers’ lack of experience in a physical, execution based league like the Valley are the drawbacks, which means we’re likely to see a combination of all 3. Connor Hickman has potential to be Bradley’s Cooper Neese (although he outshot Neese by a significant margin last year) with an 86th percentile grade out in catch and shoots, while Ville Tahvanainen was even higher with a 90th percentile grade, he just can’t stay healthy. Zek Montgomery on the wing meanwhile is an interesting option for improved Bradley shooting, as he was often instant offense off the bench down the stretch, with the home win over Loyola a peek at his potential. Christian Davis might actually be the best pure shooter on the team, but if he can’t defend, he won’t see major minutes from Wardle. The answers to Bradley’s shooting woes were likely already on the roster, but health and more volume are necessary, and the volume comes from consistent PG play getting them the ball- and I’m not sure Deen/Weathers/Ekono are the solution.
3. BELMONT– A new era dawns for the Bruins in a couple of ways as the join the MVC and look to move on from the Moose/Murphy dominated teams of the last few years. Casey Alexander has a lot of production to replace, but Belmont’s as system oriented as any program in the country, and the Bruins will be just fine. Replacing Muszynski is obviously the biggest headache, as Belmont’s hyper efficient rim offense goes hand in hand with their ubiquitous 3PT barrage. Belmont led the entire country in post efficiency at 1.21 PPP (at the 15th highest volume) and finished 5th in rim efficiency at 1.3 PPP (per ShotQuality). Even Brauns and Frank Jakubicek aren’t going to replace Moose’s unreal post efficiency or passing, but combined they offer more athleticism (Brauns) and spacing/shooting (Jakubicek). That said, this version of the Bruins is going to more perimeter focused, but they’ll need to shoot the ball better than last season’s 32% from 3. Belmont’s series of incredible up tempo quick hitters and drag screens produced the country’s 8th highest catch and shoot rate and 16th highest open 3 rate, but were just 215th nationally in efficiency on those catch and shoots (again, per SQ). The good news is Ben Sheppard returns, and will immediately be one of the premier wing scorers in the Valley. Sheppard posted the OVC’s 3rd best efficiency rating, shooting 70% at the rim and 39% from 3 in OVC play. He was also the team’s best pound for pound defender, guarding 1-4 depending on the matchup. Alexander addressed that catch and shoot inefficiency by adding one of the country’s best catch and shoot options in Princeton’s Drew Friberg. Friberg graded out in the 95th percentile in open catch and shoots per ShotQuality, and was the Ivy League’s most efficient offensive player and best 3PT shooter last season- one of the best portal marriages in all of D1. Michael Shanks at the 4 is due for his long awaited breakout season, and Alexander will need him to rebound better in a bigger role in a much more “ground and pound” league like the MVC. Belmont’s backcourt is essentially brand new, with Keishawn Davidson coming in from Tennessee Tech at the point, someone Alexander scouted well as an OVC opponent for the last 3 seasons. Davidson is another quintessential Belmont player- hyper efficient on and off the ball, shoots the 3 well, and doesn’t miss free throws, like ever. Athletic frosh Ja’Kobi Gillespie is expected to have a big role as a combo guard, as is returnee EJ Bellinger. Isaiah Walker redshirted last season, but at 6’5, his size at the 2 will be a necessity in the MVC. I have my concerns about Belmont’s frontcourt in a more physical league and how Alexander’s offensive system translates in the “low and slow” MVC, but the Bruins did address the shooting woes, and Sheppard is as good as it gets on the wing.
4. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS– Marcus Domask and Lance Jones give SIU the best veteran nucleus outside of Des Moines, Iowa, which can’t be understated in a league going through massive roster and membership upheaval. That said, I think SIU has the lowest offensive ceiling of any of the Valley top half contenders this year, and I could see the 3 teams directly below them (Missouri St, Murray St, and Indiana St) eventually passing them because of higher talent levels. However, SIU’s defense is among the best in the Valley, and give the Salukis a safe floor. Domask is the centerpiece of the offense, and while he owns the league’s second highest returning post rate, he’s much more than that. Capable of playing from both posts with savvy passing (7th highest assist rate in the Valley), on the perimeter (38% from 3 with volume), and even iso dribble drives, Domask is the league’s most versatile offensive option (although Tucker DeVries has something to say about that in his second season). Domask however wasn’t a strong finisher at the rim nor the post, as SIU finished 8th in overall rim efficiency and 9th in post efficiency (per ShotQuality). Domask’s mobility at 6’6 is a major advantage vs a lot of the league’s frontcourts, but its been tough sledding around the rim. Lance Jones actually had a significantly higher FG% at the rim than Domask (64% compared to 53% per hoop-math) with only slightly less volume. Jones ended up with the league’s highest shot rate and 4th highest usage, and his efficiency suffered a bit when he was forced on the ball, but he still finished as a 40% 3PT shooter in league play for the second straight season, which led the Salukis to the top 3PT% overall in the Valley. Jones is also a bulldog on the perimeter defensively, logging the league’s top steal rate and anchoring a defense that hedged aggressively on the perimeter for the Valley’s 2nd lowest 3PTA rate allowed. Bryan Mullins went portaling and found himself a PG in Xavier Johnson, formerly of George Mason. This XJ is just as mercurial as the XJ in Bloomington, Indiana, as he’s capable of being one of the league’s best playmakers and shot creators, but his turnover rate has often equaled or significantly eclipsed his assist rate. SIU played at around 62 possessions, slow for even Mullins, and I’m concerned about Johnson’s fit on the ball in a methodical halfcourt offense predicated on screening heavily off the ball to free Domask and Jones. To wit, SIU graded out as the most efficient offense in the league scoring off off-ball screens and the second most efficient catch and shoot offense. Jawaun Newton moves from southern Indiana to southern Illinois, and while he had a miserable year offensively (compared to his efficient seasons prior) on a dreadful Evansville team, he’s a perfect Mullins guard with his ability to rebound his position incredibly well and defend both on and off the ball and at the 3, much like veteran returnee Dalton Banks. Trent Brown is a capable spot shooter when healthy, and Foster Wonders could see some run as a bigger option at the 2 this year as additional scoring punch to round out the backcourt rotation. The frontcourt is shaky outside swiss army knife Domask, but Mullins does have size. JD Muila is a broad shouldered blocks and boards guy at the 5, while Troy D’Amico can stretch defenses in small ball lineups, but is a liability elsewhere. Clarence Rupert was one of the many St. Peter’s Peacocks who became a household name in March, and offers the most offensive upside at the 5 while also providing plus post defense (.67 PPP allowed per Synergy)- a vast improvement over Domask and doesn’t expose him to fouls. Cade Hornecker has elite size and his mobility on tape is striking for a 7 footer, but he seems like a project who could struggle with the Valley’s physicality, but Mullins might have struck gold if his strength continues to improve. This isn’t the most talented roster in the league, but the already solid defense addressed the relative weakness at the rim, and Domask/Jones give SIU one of the best duos in the league.
5. MISSOURI STATE– I think the Bears are going to be slept on a bit because of the glaring roster turnover, which of course includes Mosley and Prim, but Dana Ford restocked this team with unparalleled length and athleticism at every single position. The Bears are hard to project in the middle of September, but if this team can gel, watch out. The Bears are going to be a positionless matchup nightmare, with Chance Moore (Arkansas) and James Graham (Maryland) coming in from P5s where they were buried on the depth chart- and both can play the Mosley role. Both have incredible length, both can take a ball screen, both can create in isolation, and both can create off the dribble. Can they do it at the same level of efficiency as Mosley, who graded out in the 90th percentile plus in all of those categories? Probably not, as Mosley was as elite of a shot maker as there was in the entire sport the last two seasons (MO State as a team graded out as the 4th best shot making team in the country, per ShotQuality metrics). Kendle Moore comes in from Colorado State and can play on the ball in a more traditional PG look for Ford, but is most effective as a spot shooter and tenacious on ball defender (while his 3PT% dipped last year, he lead the MWC in 3PT% two seasons ago). Matthew Lee gained some fame during St. Peter’s miracle run last season, and can play the traditional point as well with better shot creation than Moore, shoot the 3, and defend on the ball- but the consistently high turnover rate in a lower league is a legitimate concern. Bryan Trimble is a deadly shooter from Akron (with a few other stops), hitting 42% from 3 two seasons ago with volume, but brings some baggage after being dismissed from the Zips late in the season. Ford’s backcourt is impossibly deep too, with Alston Mason coming in from Oklahoma and a 3 star recruit in Damien Mayo, both of whom can play on the ball, with Mayo likely the most talented point guard on the roster. Chance Moore and Graham can obviously drop to the 3 and even the 4 in Graham’s case, so Ford’s wing corps has so much versatility as well, but Donovan Clay is the clear alpha there as the lone returning Bear of note. Clay is an elite defender who really upped his offensive game last year, registering the Valley’s 6th most efficient offensive season, shooting a truly absurd 82% at the rim, the best mark in the league, per hoop-math. Playing alongside Mosley and Prim however left Clay with a lot of open looks as a tertiary offensive option, so that’s a concern with that kind of production subtracted from the roster. Jonathan Dunn is basically another Clay, but could be buried behind him and Graham/Moore for a bit, but offers plus depth and versatility at the present. The frontcourt has to replace Prim obviously, and it’s doubtful we see Ford work through the post at a top 20 rate nationally without him, as the likely starter at the 5 is Jonathan Mogbo, a high motor JUCO import who is more of a high motor, rim lurking big than a back to the basket scorer. Dalen Ridgnal is yet another SEC transfer, and he can space the floor at the 4 potentially, while frosh NJ Benson’s athleticism and pure talent level will get him immediate minutes at the 5, and potentially the starting job as the season progresses. It’s impossible to overstate what Mosley brought to the table, and thus impossible to replace- but this roster has undervalued athleticism and versatility, and is already better defensively, especially on the ball, where the Bears have really struggled. Ford’s Tennessee State teams really pressured ball handlers, and Lee and Kendle Moore are more than capable of bringing that sort of pressure back to the Bears.
6. MURRAY STATE– The Racers are extremely similar to the team right above them in this preseason prediction, as new old head coach Steve Prohm has to replace virtually everyone, but assembled a talented, athletic roster that is hard to predict in mid September. Like Missouri St with Clay returning, Prohm has a versatile, veteran leader and outstanding defender in DJ Burns to construct his new roster around. Burns is set for a major jump in offensive volume, where his shot rate was a meager 9% last season with so many offensive weapons ahead of him, so his 121.3 ORtg is likely unsustainable. What is sustainable is his elite, roving defense and weakside shot blocking, and dominance on the O glass. Prohm’s offenses are typically downhill rim attacking squads, utilizing a lot of dribble drive and off ball screening to free up shooters. JaCobi Wood is the most likely ballhandler to fill that lead guard role, as he had a brilliant season as freshman at Belmont two years ago, showing legit 3 level scoring ability. For whatever reason Wood fell out of favor in Nashville last year, and is likely playing with a chip on his shoulder, especially when the Racers face their old new conference rival. Rob Perry from Stetson can score anywhere on the floor, and will be the beneficiary of all those off ball screens, while D2 Quincy Anderson likely has a starting role off the ball thanks to his defense, where he can be one of the league’s best on ball defenders immediately with his size on the perimeter. JUCO import Brian Moore is an athletic freak on the ball and can touch the paint seamlessly, exactly what Prohm looks for in his guards, so he’ll have a role on the ball immediately as well. Justin Morgan, Braxton Stacker, and Jaxon Edwards are three frosh who figure to contribute immediately because of their length and versatility on the wing, with Morgan being one of the better shooting recruits in the entire league and Stacker capable of elite defense on the perimeter. The frontcourt is a little less stable outside of Burns, but the ceiling is high. Jamari Smith comes in from D1 newcomer Queens, and he’s a do it all hybrid who rebounds like a 5, shoots like a stretch 4, and attacks the rim like a 3. Sam Murray is the most celebrated of Prohm’s freshmen class and can play inside and out, but he doesn’t have an MVC body…yet. East Carolina transfer Marlon Lestin does have a body capable of the nightly MVC physicality, but his offensive ceiling is considerably lower. Former OVC rival Kenny White was a plus shooting tweener at Tennessee Tech, and he can guard on the perimeter or defend pick and pop bigs in PNR. The parallels between Murray St and Missouri State are seemingly endless (Mosley/Prim and Brown/Williams are essentially the same lost production), and both represent the biggest preseason wildcards in my book.
7. INDIANA STATE– Josh Schertz has assembled a roster in his second season that could be the most interesting in the Valley. It’s very en vogue to label your roster “positionless”, but that’s truly the case with ISU- this team has multiple 2-4 guys who can pass, post, dribble, and shoot. Schertz’s roster also returns a lot of minutes and scoring production, adding some continuity for a program that was hit hard by covid and nagging injuries, a death blow for a first year coach trying to implement a system. That uptempo, drag screening system produced an offense that was a top 5 Valley team in several key advanced metrics (per ShotQuality, ISU landed in the top 5 in shot selection, spacing, rim and 3 rate, open 3 rate, and catch and shoot rate)- what killed the Trees was poor shot making and an ungodly amount of unforced turnovers, leading the Valley in both non steal TO rate and overall TO rate. A high turnover rate is often collateral damage with a true positionless system, but playmakers like Cam Henry and Jabo Bledson have to cut them down in their second D1 seasons. Henry is capable of being an incredible scorer as a high volume point-forward, while Bledson has arguably the league’s best court vision (especially out of either post) as another 6’6 point-forward, with some of his passes defying physical law. However both made an incredible amount of mental errors that killed ISU in a plethora of close games. Neese had a down year shooting the basketball, but he’s a lethal offensive threat if his shooting stabilizes in his second year in the system. Kailex Stephens brings the positionless motif to the frontcourt, where he was the Valley’s most efficient post scorer per Synergy at 1.12 PPP- but at a low volume, as Schertz liked to use him to space the floor more than position him on the block. Voss McCauley is the most exciting addition to the roster, as he knows Schertz’s system having played for him at Lincoln Memorial before transferring up to DePaul. McCauley is yet another hybrid guard/forward, but his main contribution will be his rim finishing off the bounce. McCauley shot 61% at the rim in the Big East, while ISU was the least efficient rim offense in the league last season. Jayson Kent is Schertz’s second most important offseason addition, and once again fits the positionless bill after hopping over to Terre Haute from Bradley. Kent’s main contribution could be defensively, where he can defend 1-4, a necessity for a defense that was PNR’d to death (2nd highest PNR rate faced with the 2nd highest PPP allowed, per Synergy). I noted that Schertz’s offense created open shots at a high rate, but no one made them consistently. Zach Hobbs is the resident spot shooter, but my contact in the program tells me Masen Miller is really impressing with his pure shooting ability, and could force his way into the rotation as a walk-on. A true point guard isn’t really a priority in Schertz’s program, but something has to be done to stabilize the turnover issue. Julian Larry returns as one of the best on ball defenders in the league, but he’s barely a tertiary offensive option. Trent Gibson fits the bill of a Schertz ball handler- big and crafty, but with questionable athleticism. The nominal 5 spot is also a bit of a problem for Schertz. Robbie Avila has the most talent, but doesn’t have an MVC body as a frosh, while Cade McKnight is the same type of inside-out option as Stephens. Rim protection/post defense look like major sore spots for the Trees again. Schertz has his type of roster in place, and if this team starts hitting shots consistently (and the shots will be there), ISU is easily a top half offensive team in the Valley, a sleeper come Arch Madness.
8. NORTHERN IOWA– I’m not typically comfortable picking UNI this low, but I’m also not sure where else to put them at the moment given the overall lack of proven production and talent on Coach Jake’s roster. That said, it’s finally Bowen Born Time. Born has somewhat been waiting in the wings behind AJ Green, but he can be fully be unleashed as the offensive alpha this season. Born is probably the quickest on ball guard in the league, can touch the paint off the dribble routinely, and stroke it from deep. After battling some injuries, Born can easily be one of the 5 best players in the league this season. It’s not just Green’s production that Jacobson has to replace, as Noah Carter was arguably the league’s biggest nightly mismatch. Can Cole Henry be that guy who replaces Carter’s inside out game? Henry has distinct ball skills at 6’9 and has definitely added some muscle just by looking at clips from summer workouts. If there’s a big breakout player on the roster, it’s Henry, and he can significantly raise UNI’s offensive ceiling. Nate Heise is another returnee primed for a breakout season. Heise is Jacobson’s best two way player, and can be one of the league’s best wings if he can hit the 3 with more volume to pair with his outstanding rim finishing. Heise shot 63% and Born 66% at the rim, a big reason why UNI finished in the top 20 in ShotQuality’s rim efficiency metric (although they didn’t get there nearly enough). The biggest question mark for UNI heading into the season is the health of Austin Phyfe. Phyfe reportedly battled long covid throughout the entire season (although that wasn’t officially confirmed by UNI or Phyfe as far as I know, but I could have easily missed something there), and his status is up in the air. He seems to have been working out and practicing at a fairly normal rate, and if he’s back to anywhere near typical minutes and production, UNI is a top 5 team minimum. Three seasons ago Phyfe was the league’s most efficient player, best two way rebounder, owned a top 10 block rate, and passed out of both pivots with deftness. A Henry/healthy Phyfe frontcourt is one of the league’s best given the extreme versatility and multitude of sets Jacobson can for and through them with their combination ball/passing skills. Tytan Anderson is another returnee due for a big minutes bump with his high motor and athleticism on the wing. There’s not a lot of Valley insider talk about Coach Jake’s recruiting class, but the tape shows he brought in a few guys perfect for Cedar Falls, including native sons Landon Wolf and Trey Campbell. Wolf is actually a redshirt frosh, and he and fellow redshirt Michael Duax should have distinct roles on the wing this season. Ege Peksari is easily the incoming frosh to get most excited about based on his tape, as the big Turkish PG makes some absolutely incredibly passes with otherworldly court vision. We have to talk about UNI’s defense, because it’s a potential anvil dragging this team down, especially if Phyfe isn’t able to contribute at a high level. Jacobson’s modified pack line scheme is always going to allow a high 3PTA rate, but that trade off is that you’re walled off from the rim and the dribble drive. While UNI did allow the lowest rim rate in the league last season, they stopped absolutely no one when the defense broke down, allowing 1.22 PPP at the rim per SQ, the worst rate in the league. The Panthers really struggled to defend off the ball as well, allowing an obscene 1.32 PPP off plays ending in a cut, and the second worst efficiency defending off ball screens. This speaks to the relative lack of athleticism and missing rim protection without Phyfe. UNI really had out offense teams with such a leaky modified pack line, and that becomes less likely without Green and Carter. That said, this is by far the most volatile ranking I have in any league, as I’m willing to put UNI at 3-5 depending on the health of Phyfe, and almost all summer indications say he’s close to his former high level.
9. VALPARAISO– Given the pieces Valpo returns, I feel like 9th is inherently too low for the Beacons, but I’ve been burned by Matt Lottich before, so I’m a little hesitant. That said, Lottich had to deal with a lot of injuries and personnel issues from start to finish last year, so there’s some leeway given here. Last season the summer chatter was all about how the offense was breaking free from the patterned structure and there would be more PNR with more athleticism. The reality was Valpo ran PNR at the same rate as the year prior, but it actually made sense given the strength of the team in the pivot. Ben Krikke owns the league’s highest returning post rate and is Valley’s most skilled true 5 man. Pair him with a full season of Kobe King’s slashing on the wing, and the Beacons have one of the league’s best rim attacks, and they were 3rd in both rim and post efficiency last season, per ShotQuality. Point guard is an issue, with a lot being put on D2 transfer Nick Edwards’ plate, a veteran PG who is a dribble drive machine on his highlights. Lottich brought in another veteran D2 guy in 6’7 shooter Quinton Green in an effort to improve several of Valpo’s advanced offensive pitfalls, as the Beacons were a bottom tier Valley team in SQ’s spacing, shot making, and especially shot selection metrics. Preston Ruedinger was a surprising sparkplug as a walk-on PG last year after Lottich was forced to turn to essentially the last man on the bench, and certainly earned a role for this season as well. The frontcourt around Krikke is shaky at best, but more athletic with Jerome Palm and Ibra Bayu in tow this year. Both are freakishly athletic and have massive wingspans, an element around the rim Valpo has been lacking. The problem is their relative rawness offensively and for Bayu, he’s coming off TWO broken ankles, which significantly dropped his recruiting stock and the high major offers dried up. I’m not opposed to arguments for Valpo being too low in this ranking, but the shooting/spacing issues weren’t addressed enough for me, and the frontcourt behind Krikke is too reliant on potential projects, albeit extremely athletic projects.
10. ILLINOIS STATE– Ryan Pedon comes to Normal to revive the ISUred program after the Dan Muller era ended in precipitous crash and burn. Pedon is something of an offensive mastermind, having developed Chris Holtmann’s offense into one of the most efficient non PNR reliant offenses in the entire country. OSU’s playbook is renowned for its depth and structured play designs, essentially the opposite of the Muller offense, which was a “ball screen and create” offense, running PNR at the 9th highest rate in the country last season. The problem for Pedon is that the OSU offense has been predicated on the versatility of a mobile post, inverting a lot of defenses and creating mismatches. OSU in fact had the 5th highest post rate in the country. Obviously there isn’t an EJ Liddell lurking in BloNo, and Pedon’s initial ISU roster is far more backcourt forward than frontcourt. Darius Burford is an interesting addition in Pedon’s backcourt, as he comes from a very Ohio State inspired offensive system at Elon, which was run by another former Holtmann assistant in Mike Schrage. Burford is primarily a ball screen creator, but has a plus jump shot to match his downhill attack. 42% of Burford’s shots came at the rim last year, which is nearly double the rate of any ISU guard last year. He also logged the CAA’s 5th highest assist rate and paired it with a respectable turnover rate given his massive increase in shot volume and usage. Western Illinois’ Colton Sandage can shoot it a little, handle it a little, and get to the line a little- a pretty complete offensive profile given his athleticism limitations, plus he’s a BloNo kid. He and Burford make a competent MVC backcourt for Pedon to build around, but the real portal steal might have been Virginia transfer Malachi Poindexter. Poindexter has above average MVC talent in the backcourt and can change the entire complexion of the Redbirds on both ends if he’s fully healthy and ready for a breakout season with a massive minutes increase. Kendall Lewis on the wing is Pedon’s most important Muller holdover, as he’s capable of being one of the league’s premier 3 and D guys. Lewis is hyper versatile defender who logged top 10 steal and block rates in Valley play, and can score from rim to perimeter- he’ll surely be the beneficiary of some of those Liddell based play designs. Luke Kasubke never really got a chance to show his shooting ability at Kansas State due to injuries and depth chart burial, but he can be one of the better catch and shoot wings in the league, and Pedon’s offense created catch and shoot threes at a top 60 rate nationally last year, per ShotQuality. Seneca Knight has played for a laundry list of programs, but his slashing ability is unquestioned, and his size and strength on the perimeter will be a major challenge for MVC defenses. Pedon’s frontcourt is far less exciting than the backcourt, with major concerns lingering at the 5. Western Carolina transfer Joe Petrakis and Liam McChesney are decent enough floor stretchers and can have roles in this offense, but neither rebound well for their size, and Petrakis is a little behind in learning the offense because he wasn’t allowed to be with the team throughout summer workouts while he finished up his WCU classes. Ryan Schmitt and Alston Andrews make up the back to the basket options (and Andrews has a very MVC body on the block), and there’s very little offensive upside there, even for an outstanding play designer like Pedon. Pedon’s offense is going to be a nightly tough prep and the backcourt is upper half MVC caliber, but the defense on several fronts is an overwhelming concern. It should also be noted ISU received a favorable unbalanced MVC schedule, which could aid them if they pull of the top half finish surprise.
11. UIC– Luke Yaklich returns to the MVC, where he was both a teammate of and then an assistant under Dan Muller at Illinois State. Yaklich is known for his defensive mind, and Illinois State was an annual top half defense when he was on the bench, but never finishing top half since he left to build Michigan’s defense and eventually on to UIC as a head coach. The Flames however took a major and surprising step backwards defensively last year (although a significant chunk of that defensive drop is due to plain ol’ bad luck, as Horizon opponents hit 38% from 3 despite UIC allowing the lowest open 3 rate in the league with ShotQuality clocking the Flames at an absurd 7% over their opponents expected 3PT%), and now enter a better league. The Flames endured a rocky offseason entry into the Valley when they lost Damaria Franklin after portal season had ended. Franklin was expected to be the backbone of the team, serving a brutal blow just before summer workouts commenced- per hooplens, the Flames were a net .1 PPP better with Franklin on the floor. Despite the loss of Franklin, the backcourt is still the strength of this roster, with Yaklich importing some portal help from the west in Idaho’s Tre Anderson and CSUB’s Shaun Williams. Anderson is a paint probing combo guard who shot half of his attempts at the rim last season and drew the Big Sky’s 5th highest contact rate, while Williams is more of a distributor and strong on ball defender, coming from an intense, up the line pressure system under Rod Barnes. Frosh Jalen Jackson was a pure scorer during his Fort Wayne prep career, and can play on or off the ball while rebounding his position extremely well. Yaklich’s wing corps is likely the heart of the team this year with Jace Carter returning, who had an underrated offensive season as a shooter. Carter somewhat quietly shot 41% in Horizon play and defended 1-3. Yaklich could turn Duquesne transfer Toby Okani into one of the Valley’s best defenders as a 6’8 2/3/4 hybrid, capable of defending on the ball and in the post. Yaklich’s two UIC teams have allowed the 2nd lowest 3PTA rate in the country, and the 20th lowest open 3 rate. The Flames shut down the perimeter as consistently as anyone in the country, and Okani will play a big role in continuing that tradition. The wing also adopts Yaklich’s two best recruits from this class in Christian Jones, who can play on the ball with great size, and Steven Clay. Yaklich’s frontcourt is going to be a problem in the new league, and not in the good sense. Michael Diggins was an extremely sturdy rim protector and rebounder, and UIC’s 2PT% D allowed was 8% higher with him off the floor last season, with a 1,000+ possession sample size, per hooplens. Filip Skobalj might create some mismatches offensively with his floor stretching, but he can’t defend at the 4 or the 5 in the Valley. That leaves redshirt frosh Jaden Brownell and two true freshmen in Cameron Fens and Bessanty Aime-Saragba to soak up the blocks and boards. Yikes.
12. EVANSVILLE– David Ragland was already behind the 8 ball given the timing of his hiring at Evansville, but the well traveled long time assistant did a decent job assembling a roster on the fly, especially filling out a competent backcourt, because that cupboard was completely bare. There’s nothing in Ragland’s coaching background to suggest he’s going to have the Purple Aces playing at a significantly high tempo, but you can’t get much slower than Todd Lickliter’s relentlessly methodical ball screen after ball screen offense. Ragland’s most notable recent stint would be at Utah State, where he worked under offensive genius Craig Smith, a master play designer that utilized off ball screens and cutting to great effect, while employing a suffocating interior defense and dominant rebounding on the other end- if Ragland’s model is Craig Smith era Utah St, the Aces are off to a solid start. Ragland’s backcourt will be led by Marvin Coleman, IF he’s healthy. Coleman is coming off a foot injury that has limited him for two straight seasons, but he’s a point guard Ragland knows from his MWC time, and had a really solid season on the ball 3 years ago. Coleman is capable of breaking defenses down off the bounce and probing the paint, and logged a top 10 assist rate in an excellent defensive league when he was healthy. The scoring likely comes from Kenny Strawbridge, , a big bodied combo guard who shot 61% at the rim last year at Alabama State despite playing with a broken thumb on his shooting hand for much of the year. Blaise Beauchamp is Ragland’s most notable holdover from the disastrous Lickliter era, and has the capability to be one of the league’s premier catch and shoot options, as evidenced by a tantalizing stretch in February last season. Beauchamp graded out in the 76th percentile nationally in open catch and shoot efficiency, and can be a very effective spot shooter in this offense. Ragland retained Chris Moncrief from the Lickliter recruiting class, and he’s a big framed scorer who can handle the ball and should see minutes as a frosh. Gabe Spinelli’s speed and shoot on the ball is intriguing, and Logan McIntire is a legit scorer with plus size who I saw play a few times at North Harrison. Matus Malovec meanwhile brings a smooth Euro skill set with plus vision and size, but might need some time to catch up after joining the team late from Slovakia- there’s a good deal of size and versatility with the backcourt freshmen overall. Coleman, Strawbridge, and Beauchamp give the Aces immediate competency, but that freshman class in the backcourt is quietly solid. The frontcourt has some big bodies, which Ragland needs for his likely intense emphasis on defensive rebounding, but scoring upside is scant. Antoine Smith had some intriguing early moments as a nominal floor stretcher, going 6-6 from deep in that wild 3OT game vs Rice in a Florida MTE, but then was a total nonfactor in Valley play before ending the season with an injury. Preston Phillips is probably more of a Ragland type guy after showing some decent “blocks and boards” ability as a frosh, and he’s not a lost cause offensively. Sekou Kalle out of Akron has outstanding size and physicality and could start with Phillips in the frontcourt if Ragland really wants to dominate the glass, which has been mentioned in every one of his media appearances. Yacine Toumi has plus size and rim presence as well, but little immediate offensive upside based on his JUCO stats. The Aces have already hit rock bottom as a program after the Walter McCarty to Todd Lickliter stretch, so any form of competitiveness and competency is an achievement in Ragland’s first season.