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Archive | January, 2022
1/18/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/17/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
17 JanBIG TEN
- The highest ranked Big Ten team in the last month of basketball per Torvik? The Illinois Fighting Illini (5th overall). This is of course quite a matchup with Purdue in town, and we have 3 of the most prolific post players in the sport with Cockburn, Edey, and Williams (all are top 30 in post rate nationally, with Cockburn and Edey top 10, only Ike at Wyoming has more post possessions per game than Cockburn). I’m almost willing to view the entire post situation as something of a wash, unless there’s some early foul trouble either way. Edey wasn’t really a factor in 13 minutes last year, Williams had some success moving Cockburn around, and Cockburn had his moments of dominance mitigated by a not atypical 0-6 performance from the stripe. To me the most interesting aspect of this matchup is that Purdue’s offensive structure works completely away from Illinois’ relative weakness defensively, which is defending in PNR. EVERYONE tries to make Cockburn defend in PNR, and consequently Illinois has faced PNR sets at the highest rate in the country, per Synergy. Purdue of course isn’t a PNR offense, running it at the 3rd lowest rate in the country, preferring to operate in Painter’s deep off ball playbook and orbiting around Williams and his unbelievable passing from all over the floor. Conversely, Illinois is a top 70 PNR offense, and like the Illini, EVERYONE wants to make Purdue defend in PNR, as they’ve defended in PNR at a top 15 clip (we’ve seen Nova, NC State, PSU, all gouge the Boilers there for extended periods). What’s interesting to me about the coaching matchup is Underwood’s willingness to mix up what his team does based on the matchup and personnel, whereas Painter is very much “this is who we are and what we do, stop us if you can”. I think this boils down to Purdue not being able to really chase Plummer, Frazier, and Grandison around on the perimeter (these guys are elite spotting up or shooting off the dribble). Can Frazier check Ivey? He’s a hound on the ball and destroyed Hunter in this matchup last year with Ivey a nonfactor, but he’s giving up some length and agility in that matchup if Underwood goes that route (not sure what else he would do). While it won’t be in PNR, Williams will force Cockburn to move defensively, which is the key against Illinois for most offenses, but neither of these teams are looking to attack the rim outside of their high frequency post up (in fact Purdue is 336th and Illinois 325th in frequency of shots finished at the rim, per ShotQuality). I digress, but I generally think this is tougher matchup for Purdue because of Illinois’ adaptability and willingness to make Purdue defend in PNR, something they haven’t shown they can do consistently. UPDATE: Supposedly Curbelo is warming up IN uniform. Frankly, I don’t know if that’s good or bad for Illinois.
- After Indiana’s meltdown on the road at Iowa, I don’t think they’ll be looking past a Nebraska team they already handled at Assembly Hall this year, as the “can’t win on the road narrative” has become an immediate fire to put out rather than looking ahead to Purdue on Thursday. I’ve mentioned it several times with the Hoosiers here, but the defense is elite and capable of allowing them to win any given game in the league, but the guards simply aren’t Big Ten caliber offensively. The turnovers against even token ball pressure are frankly embarrassing, and when defenses can sag off your two primary ballhandlers without recourse (with the exception of the Minnesota game), you’re going to have some problems finding space for TJD (further complicated by Thompson’s limited offensive range). Nebraska doesn’t really pressure the ball defensively with any real gusto, but IU still managed a 21% TO rate in the first meeting with the Huskers racking up 9 steals- again, any pressure at all sends the IU backcourt into a tizzy. The problem for Nebraska is that you can’t beat IU’s defense on the dribble drive/iso, as their help is elite, and that’s all Nebraska really does on that end. Perhaps they get a spark with the return of Trey McGowens, but I think IU is highly motivated to get the road win monkey off their back after yet another collapse away from Assembly Hall, and if you can’t do it at Nebraska, you’re not going to do it anywhere.
COLONIAL
- Hofstra is an elite PNR offense, both in terms of volume and efficiency, and Claxton utilizes his bigs in the roll game better than any midmajor coach not named Randy Bennett. That’s a tough matchup for Drexel, who has struggled in PNR defense both at POA and on the roller. Factor in that the Dragons are shorthanded with two bench players in covid protocol and their best big Butler injured, and it’s a tough ask of Spiker’s squad to sweep the Boston to Hempstead trip. It sounds like Cooks is still out for the Pride, but their guard depth is insane, with Ray and Estrada just as elite in ball screens. The Pride have their own depth issues with Cramer unavailable against Delaware, but they did get Simmons back to offset that loss some. Hofstra’s defense is super compact, and they’re allowing a high frequency of threes, and no one is missing them, with opposing offenses drilling them at a 40% clip. Drexel can shoot the ball, surely some regression is due their for the Pride.
- James Madison pulled off the biggest comeback of the entire CBB season on Saturday (something of a theme with the Dukes, who have fallen down big early in a few games, then Byington puts the frosh Edwards in to wreak havoc at the top of the press), and now have a revenge game with Elon after the Phoenix knocked shorthanded and top seeded JMU out of the CAA tournament last year. Tough matchup for Elon, as JMU attacks the rim with vigor and the Phoenix guards are porous on the ball, and while Graham is arguably the league’s best rim protector, he fouls at a slightly higher rate than he blocks shots. Elon’s offense is atypically stagnant from what what we usually see from Schrage, as they’ve become largely dependent on Burford’s penetration, but JMU has two elite on ball defenders with Morse’s speed and Molson’s length. JMU’s best defensive big Sule should be clear of protocol, but I think he’d have to rejoin the team independently, which certainly isn’t out of the question.
- William & Mary could easily be 3-0 in the CAA if not for a monumental collapse on Saturday against JMU, but the collapse was fueled by a lot of luck and regression from the previous 2 games catching up with them (and Lewis’ injury didn’t help either). Towson comes to town shorthanded, with Nolan likely still out and best shooter Gibson’s availability unknown after an unfortunate death in the family. That said, the Tribe can’t matchup with the physicality of the Tigers on the glass and on the ball. W&M has the highest turnover rate in the country, which is fueled by the highest steal rate. Cam Holden, the Draymond Green of the CAA (has Green become the most comped NBA player of all-time at this point?) could approach a quadruple double with steals. Some funky 3PT variance, injuries, and horrific officiating have fueled William & Mary’s bizarro CAA start, and I think we should start to see all of that catch up to them (although they’re still lucking out with Towson shorthanded).
- Northeastern’s an unthinkable 0-5 in CAA play, their worst start in a decade. Much of this can be blamed on injuries and infrequent practicing due to covid protocols. They do have Walters back, but he looked limited against Drexel, but still no Scott-Grayson, who reinjured his shoulder, and he was supposed to shore up the season long PG issues for Coen. In short, the Huskies are a mess right now, but possibly rebounding from rock bottom. The defense has been a mess basically everywhere, as their incredible length has been incredibly slow laterally, but Walters’ return helps mask a lot of those issues. Delaware comes in with their own injury concerns, as Allen got hurt against Hofstra, and he’s leading the CAA in shot rate and 2nd in usage. The Hens supposedly will have Arletti back, which is certainly helpful if Allen is out, as Inglesby had a 6 man rotation against Hofstra and this is of course a quick road turnaround. Doherty has kind of held his own inside despite the general defensive issues plaguing NU, and that’s key against Painter, and Coen has a lot of mobile length to combat the way Inglesby spaces him away from the rim. Inglesby can’t really afford to pressure the ball and expose NU’s PG issues given his rotation limitations, and this certainly smacks of a “circle the wagons” home spot for the Huskies as they stare an 0-6 CAA start in the face- but a lot depends on how much wind Walters has on a quick turnaround and if Allen can suit up for the Hens.
- Charleston and UNC Wilmington are the two most rested teams in the league, and the Seahawks have some momentum with somewhat surprising 2-0 start in league play. I mentioned a great article from @TheSeahawkPerch detailing a shift in UNCW’s offensive attack, and it starts with Sims getting the ball at POA in PNR sets more often- always a good idea to have the ball in the hands of your best player, and C of C has a LOT of holes in their PNR coverage. UNCW’s pressure (extended at a 30% rate, one of the highest in the country) could be effective against a C of C team that relies on their positionless nature to exploit matchups in Kelsey’s pace and space free form system, as they don’t have a true ballhandler. The pressure also slows the game down, which is key against C of C, who has the fastest tempo in the country. UNCW has been the beneficiaries of some late game variance luck (same is true for C of C), and could easily be on a 4 game losing streak. Both sides have matchups exploitable to their style of play (Meeks can clear out iso UNCW to death here), so I’m leaning a closer score than predictive analytical site projections.
ELSEWHERE
- Wyoming swept Nevada last year, and while Linder’s offense was structured more around PNR with Williams in those matchups, the second meeting of the b2b saw the coming out party of Graham Ike, who worked Washington in the post and has since skyrocketed to be the most prolific post player in the country. Nevada does have size with Washington and Baker, and Stanford’s size was a problem for the Pokes in Hawaii, but like I mentioned, Ike was a force in just his first real extended action last year against the Pack (perhaps a surprise in the quick turnaround for Alford and staff), and Nevada’s best all around defender is Blackshear, a solid option with his versatility and length against the weakside clear out stuff Linder runs so frequently through Maldonado. On the other end, Alford is going to make Wyoming defend in ball screens every time down, something Wyoming has struggled with, which has led to them facing it at the 8th highest rate in the country, per Synergy.
- We don’t know who’s available for Drake, with both Hemphill and DeVries potentially out, and that’s huge against SIU, whose strength lies at the 3/4 with Coupet and Domask. Generally speaking, it’s a tough matchup for the Salukis, who are structured to run you off the 3 (fairly useless against Drake) but don’t have much by way of rim protection. Definite lineup check involved here.
- Nationally televised home games against P6 teams don’t happen often for HBCUs, so a huge game for Howard here, and their team speed (Hawkins is arguably the quickest PG in the entire country), full court pressure, and willingness to launch from anywhere on the court could put Notre Dame on their heels early. Howard’s halfcourt defense will certainly be called into question here, as the Irish’s elite short roll offense will be an issue for the Bison. Super interesting game, and Howard is more than plucky, so there’s a chance the Irish get caught with their pants down with this landing in the heart of ACC play, but this game was scheduled for last year before getting the covid ax, so ND is fully aware of what they’re getting themselves into here.
- One thing to note in Mercer at The Citadel, do everything stud Hayden Brown left in the 2H for the Bulldogs, and didn’t return with an ankle injury. His status is of the utmost importance for Duggar Baucom. Per hooplens, The Citadel is a net .12 PPP better with Brown on the floor, which is an obvious eye test affirmation if you’ve ever seen them play.
- When Carlson is out, Craig Smith goes amoeba 1-3-1 with Utah defensively (couldn’t stay in it vs Arizona), and there are few more zone averse teams in the last few years than Arizona State. The Sun Devils are comparatively healthier than the Utes, but we saw how awful they were when Colorado walled off the rim, and Craig Smith is going to do the same. This is going to be an ugly one folks.
IVY
- No idea who’s playing for Harvard today, as their game with Columbia had the look and feel of a pickup game with major absences on both sides (I sagely (sarcastic font) took the under upon hearing of all the personnel issues, only for the game to devolve into Amaker and Engles throwing their hands up and saying “go play”). Tretout was on the bench, so it appears he had an injury, but Ledlum wasn’t, which leads me to think protocol. Dartmouth meanwhile is healthier with Samuels back, and Big Green features elite off ball screening and spacing, but Harvard’s strength is their multi-positionality at every spot on the floor, and their ability to switch everything off the ball (personnel issues not withstanding). Full strength I love Harvard here.
- Princeton, the best team in the Ivy, has been surviving without Llewellyn thanks to some nice end game luck (or is it elite end game execution AND luck) and the matchup problem that is Evbuomwan, but the on ball defense will continue to be a problem in the former’s absence (I think he’s doubtful at best against Penn today). Brown’s frosh sensation Lilly sliced and diced the Tigers without Llewellyn in front of him, and Dingle could very well do the same today. But again, Evbuomwan is a problem for Moshkovitz in this supercharged version of the Princeton O (Henderson has this thing humming with so many gadget plays within the structure of the offense, truly one of the best halfcourt systems in all of CBB). Probably another Ivy game where Princeton struggles to defend without Llewellyn, but out executes down the stretch to win a tight one.
- Yale came out of pause and be-bopped and skatted all over shorthanded Cornell, racking up 96 points in 80 possessions despite an off night from Swain. Length has bothered Swain all year, and Martin has a big decision to make. Friday is a lengthy defender but he’d have to trade phenom Lilly’s offense for stretches in that scenario (Swain will attack Lilly relentlessly). Brown has the league’s best rim protector in Gainey and they offer a lot of versatility and athleticism in their lineup, anchored by Choh, and that’s key against Yale, who doesn’t have traditional bigs (although the return of Jarvis is pretty huge for Jones).
PLAYS:
Portland +11 (from last night via twitter)
Illinois ML (small)
Northeastern +2
UNCW +8
Mercer ML
UMBC +3.5
Jackson St +1.5
Belmont -13.5
153-131-5 ytd
1/15/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/14/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/13/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/12/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/11/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/9/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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1/8/2022 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES
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Staring at the Floorboards 
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