11/26/2021 MATCHUP NEWS AND NOTES

1. Akinjo struggled with VCU’s pressure and ball screen blitzes waaaay more than I thought he would, but I feel like Baylor got their “bad game” out of the way against a defense intent on disrupting everything you want to do offensively- I’m not sure Michigan State has that in them (I can’t remember the last time I saw Izzo blitz a ball screen, and he certainly hasn’t done it this year). Basically, I think Baylor can go back to running their preferred offense instead of the back cut heavy stuff we saw Drew adjust to in the 2H last night. I still have no idea how Sparty won that game yesterday, but only turning it over 12 times (and a blown call from an out of position ref) is huge for them. That said, the halfcourt offense was still pretty putrid for long stretches, and Baylor’s constantly switching D, even with JTT in (who has been phenomenal defensively so far this year), offers no reprieve.
2. Miami got shellacked by a Dayton team finally playing up to their potential, and struggled offensively when Wong/Moore/McGusty were denied paint access by Dayton modified packline. They now face a similar scheme in ethos from North Texas, who is strictly no middle defensively. Dayton ranks 11th in denying rim looks, while UNT is 3rd. Miami will need to UNT is 8-4 on no rest under McCasland, Miami is 2-4 in that same stretch (better opponents though), but the point stands, McCasland is an excellent prepper, rest or no. Tylor Perry is scoring an absurd 1.7 PPP out of ball screens. He was UNT’s only offense yesterday, but that’s bad news for a Miami D that has struggled in PNR D. Mean Green need to get him some help and Miami has to hit some jump shots.
3. Everything finally clicked for Dayton yesterday, which tends to happen when you go 11-19 from 3. Smith is unquestionably the point guard, dishing 12 assists to 1 TO in his last 2 games, and Holmes finally looked confident on both ends. If those 2 frosh are finding their footing, Dayton’s a dangerous team going forward. Dayton is actually the bigger team here against Kansas, and we saw the Flyers’ length really disrupt Miami’s smaller guards in both halfcourt contest and full court pressure. Obviously Agbaji and Martin are more explosive and can shred pressure, but there’s probably some 3PT regression due for KU a bit at some point on both ends. That said, I also don’t expect Dayton to go 11-19 again.
4. Yesterday’s loss dropped UConn to 0-5 on no rest under Hurley, and now they face the constantly mucking it up VCU pressure and ball screen traps. That’s no fun. The structure of VCU’s defense means Ward is forever 1v1 on any big thrown at him, and he usually wins that challenge. Sanogo is a monster and looks unstoppable 1v1, but he hasn’t learned how to pass out of a double yet. That won’t happen from VCU. Obviously legs and stamina are a question for both at this point. VCU’s style makes it difficult to go b2b2b, and UConn has a 2OT sprinkled in the mix and potentially without Whaley again. Could be an ugly one, but we saw UConn eventually handle Auburn’s pressure, even forcing them into zone. VCU’s press is structured differently of course, but UConn can score here, while we know VCU’s offense is still a major work in progress.
5. I’m not quite ready to sound the alarm on Drake. They took 17 more shots than Belmont, but missed a ton of open 3s and 5-12 from the FT line. Predictably Brodie couldn’t defend the mobility of Moose, and could only go 12 minutes with DeVries forced to go small at the 5 with his son and a litany of doubles, which of course didn’t work with the big man’s passing touch a large part of his repertoire. Both Oats and DeVries have been solid on no rest, Alabama because of their athleticism and talent and Drake because of their pressure. It’s hard to press Alabama given the explosive ball handlers they have, especially with Davidson in the fold. Iona showed that if you commit to transition D, you can knock Bama off their axis when you force them to work in the halfcourt, where the structure is sometimes lacking. Drake has been an excellent transition denial D under DeVries, and Tank Hemphill profiles similarly not JeanLouis who denied a lot of penetration singlehandedly. Iona had a premier rim presence in NJJ lurking in the paint, which Brodie is not. I think Drake can succeed in forcing Bama in the halfcourt, I’m just not sure they can force them into tough shots at the rate Iona did. The Tide are ShotQuality’s top “Rim and 3” rate team (expected). Iona was fantastic at limiting both of those. I don’t think Drake can replicate that.
6. The Syracuse zone has historically been one of the great short/no prep confounders in CBB, but this Cuse zone just isn’t very good at the moment. They’re lacking athleticism, especially with Benny Williams getting the Boeheim freshman treatment. Auburn hasn’t seen any zone yet this year, but have multiple shooters and multiple middle options with extreme size and athleticism, but Cuse is always elite in transition denial, a large part of Auburn’s offensive identity. We’ve seen Syracuse struggle mightily with pressure from VCU and even ASU late last night, as their iso and jump reliant offense struggles when pressured. Auburn allows just .4 PPP in iso.
7. Loyola has been out-athleted, out-hustled, out-everything in this tournament. To be fair, they’ve held their own, but they just can’t generate buckets when they have to because of that disadvantage. Arizona State offers a bit of reprieve, as they don’t have the same overwhelming athleticism of Auburn or Michigan State’s frontcourts (although Graham and Gaffney are still a challenge of course). The stellar defense of Loyola’s backcourt could be enough to carry them to a much needed salvage win, as their ability to force jump shots is always a Hurley O achilles heel.
8. Can NJJ defend the mobility of Moose? That’s at the heart of this matchup, as Drake couldn’t do it. You can’t double Moose because it unlocks all the Belmont shooters, and his mobility and ability to play in the high post opens up the floor. We might actually see Slaz or DVE on him for long stretches, allowing NJJ to maintain his post at the rim. I don’t think Belmont’s guards/wings can defend Iona’s trio of Joiner/Jolly/BJL. Great chess match between two great coaches. I’m not sure what’s going on with Alexander’s bench, but Wood and Hollander essentially being out of the rotation is confusing. They’ll be needed facing pressure for the second straight night.
9. Young vs Steele is a big coaching mismatch in favor of Virginia Tech, and amplified by short prep. That said, Xavier’s defense has been great against motion heavy schemes, more so than when PNR is the preferred offensive action (or dribble drive, where Hunter embarrassed the Muskies and Brockington went berzerk on kick outs). Ultimately the mobility and versatility of VT’s bigs in Young’s outstanding motion could be the difference, but XU is far more equipped to defend that, ironically, than a more simple offensive scheme. Can some of the shooting splits balance out in this game? Hokie opponents have hit just 18% from 3, the lowest in the country, while XU is at just 27%. XU’s shooting woes appear to be endemic, especially if Kunkel is out again.
10. Iowa State’s Hunter is sort of the cheat code against Memphis unrelenting, athletic pressure. His ability to win on the dribble and open up the court is something VT couldn’t do, and their pattern offense was a mess. No such pattern from ISU here, but Memphis’ talent and athleticism overcomes a lot of gameplan/coaching issues. Conversely, Hunter is an unbelievable ballhawk, and Memphis’ turnover issues are even more glaring early this year with an unreal 26% TO rate and 16% steal rate. Low key big upset potential here.
11. San Diego State and USC are two defenses that aren’t going to let you beat them at the rim- the Aztec pack line doesn’t allow you anywhere near there and USC’s athleticism at the rim denies you there. I feel like we’re not talking about Boogie Ellis’ defense enough, and his ball screen D is essential against an SDSU suddenly running a ton of them for Pulliam and Bradley. The ability of Mobley to stretch out the pack line is key here, but I’m interested to see if Bradley puts USC’s massive lineup in some bad switches with 6’9 Peterson typically lining up at the 3 without White yesterday. To be fair, Peterson has actually looked great in PNR D, but Temple’s Battle found some of those mismatches earlier this year, a guard/wing who profiles similarly to Bradley. The availability of White is a potential big factor in this one.
12. Mark Few has been crazy good prepping for these megamatchups, but Duke can put Holmgren in some tough spots with Banchero’s incredible skill set for his size and all the iso situations and clear outs K is willing to put him in, and Williams and Johns physicality against Timme (still a mathup Timme will win in the post). Duke is actually running PNR this year, mostly because Keels and Moore have been PHENOMENAL, and we’ve seen Gonzaga struggle with what do with Timme in this situations against big time opponents. I like a lot of Duke’s individual matchups (we’re here for Banchero v Holmgren, but if Duke wins it will be because of Keels) ,definitely lean Duke, but I fear the Few prep in these games just enough to stay away.