PACIFIC VS NORTHERN COLORADO
All about defending PNR in this one, as Pacific finished 12th nationally in PNR rate and UNC was right behind at 15th. Unfortunately for both defenses, neither was particularly strong in that regard, as Pacific graded out in the 17th percentile nationally in PNR D, and UNC in the 9th percentile. To Pacific’s credit, they played with intensity and toughness defensively, and I suspect that will continue under Perry- but the same wasn’t necessarily true of UNC, who struggled immensely defending off the dribble after running teams off the 3PT line at the highest rate in the entire country. Basically, UNC is an analytical extreme defensively, allowing the lowest 3PT and assist rates in the nation, but then getting decimated off the bounce (5th percentile in dribble defense, per Synergy). My friends at 3MW sum Smiley’s defense up nicely: The Bears’ pick-and-roll defense was appalling, with Synergy tallying their defense against PnR ball-handlers in just the 2nd percentile nationally – in stark contrast to their defense of spot ups, which was in the 99th percentile. That’s a conscious scheme choice: on the ShotQuality podcast, Smiley discussed how he refuses to help and rotate, instead forcing opponents to win those PnR situations in a 2v2 game
The good news for UNC is that Pacific was abysmal off the bounce last year, scoring in just the 2nd percentile nationally. UNC meanwhile is loaded with deadly shooters in Smiley’s spread PNR attack, and Pacific allowed triples at the 20th highest rate in the country last year.
DETROIT @ WYOMING
Fitting to go from Northern Colorado to Wyoming, as they’re essentially one and the same schematically, with the Linder analytics based system informing UNC’s entire identity. Wyoming was arguably the best PNR offense in the country last year, grading out in the 99th percentile in both ball screen offense and all plays involving pick and roll. Despite losing Williams, Linder’s offense should be just as deadly, if not more so, with flamethrower Dut sliding into the lead guard role and the further development of swiss army knife Maldonado and a circling orbit of deadly perimeter snipers. Mike Davis deployed a vanilla zone on nearly 60% of Detroit’s defensive possessions, one of the highest zone rates in the country, mostly because his Titans couldn’t defend in PNR effectively (23rd percentile per Synergy). Zoning the Pokes might slow down the bevy of ball screens and conserve energy in the Laramie altitude, but you’re then relying on one of the best shooting teams in the country to be cold from outside in their own gym. Wyoming scored in the 86th percentile in their zone offense last year. Detroit of course has their own flamethrower in Antoine Davis, arguably the best pure scorer in the country, and Wyoming’s massive struggles defensively (particularly in ball screen defense, 9th percentile) can be exposed, especially with defensive ace Marble no longer on the team and Foster unavailable. Davis also has one of the best floor stretchers in all of midmajordom in Waterman creating space for Davis, and the Pokes predictably struggled in pick and pop D. I have some reservations about Detroit’s offense around Davis, as he was best off the ball last year, and I’m not sure who steps into the Fraser/Kuol roles with Phillips ineligible to date and Harvey’s consistency and production a question mark (rumor mill says his offseason wasn’t great).
BUFFALO @ MICHIGAN
Really stiff opening test for Michigan, as Buffalo’s a veteran laden, hyper physical squad that attacks the rim relentlessly (2nd nationally in rim rate per hoop-math). The problem for the Bulls here is that Michigan’s defense is an analytical dream, allowing the 11th lowest FGA rate at the rim and the 28th lowest 3PTA rate, while fouling at the 26th lowest rate. Oh and they were top 50 in transition attempt rate defensively as well, another key component to the Buffalo downhill barrage. Buffalo was 6th last year in OREB rate, but Michigan’s a solid defensive glass team. Essentially you have to beat Michigan with 2PT jump shots, and Buffalo hit those at the 35th lowest rate in the country last year. Offensively for the Wolverines, in a massive simplification of a diverse and deep playbook, it’s ball screen and post. Jones takes over as the primary ball screen recipient and should be just fine, but Buffalo’s strength defensively is their PNR coverage, where they graded in the 92nd percentile per Synergy. The departure of Graves is concerning in that regard, but Williams, Jack, and especially Hardnett are long and versatile, and Mballa is a roving monster with solid, athletic post defense against Dickinson. I have some serious concerns about both offenses being able to function how they prefer to, and Buffalo’s physicality and experience can be a challenge for the prestigious newcomers on the Michigan squad. There isn’t a chance in hell Buffalo will have an ounce of nerves or intimidation.
FAU @ NEW MEXICO
I don’t have a lot to say about this one, but it should be a raucous atmosphere at the Pit for the first competitive game there since Feb 2020 and the start of the Pitino era. The Lobos have some personnel issues with Singleton and Manuel out, but this figures to be a ball screen heavy attack between House and Mashburn, who looked far more athletic in the preseason than he ever did at Minnesota. To make matters complicated for FAU, they’ll be without their best ball screen defender, PG, and best shooter BJ Greenlee, who suffered a high ankle sprain.
GARDNER-WEBB @ UNLV
Mainly interested to see how Kruger utilizes all the new faces around alpha scorer Hamilton, particularly Nuga, in what should be a PNR heavy attack (if he’s following his dad’s mold). Defensively, I have some concerns for the Rebs. Gardner-Webb is dominated by a uniquely deep and talented backcourt for a Big South entry, and this group can fire at will out of a constantly off ball screening motion offense (9th highest screen rate in the country last year, per Synergy). That’s a tough assignment for a UNLV team whose best defender might be a frosh in Gilbert and will be without Iwuakor.
Staring at the Floorboards 
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