DATES: 3/8-3/12
SITE: Birmingham
WHO SHOULD WIN: #1 UAB is unquestionably the team to beat here. Not only are they the best team in the league, but they get to stay in Birmingham, where they swept their way to the NCAA Tournament last year. The Blazers are deep, experienced, athletic, versatile, and confident, and they have the length of a power 5 squad. With HaHa Lee, Tosin Mehenti, and Chris Cokley, they’re one of the best rim protecting defenses in the entire country, and Haase will mix in pressure and trapping schemes frequently as well. They’re not a jump shooting team, but that doesn’t mean Robert Brown, Dirk Williams (who is instant offense off the bench), and Nick Norton can’t knock them down consistently. So where can UAB be exposed, if it all? On the wings. Big, athletic wings can attack Brown, and that’s exactly what guys like Erik McCree, Alex Hamilton, Fred Edmond, and Raheem Watts, to name a few, did. I think UAB would gladly switch places with #2 MTSU if you gave them the option, as the Blazers’ half of the bracket has the two teams that beat them in the regular season (WKU and Louisiana Tech), and an Old Dominion team playing well and looking for revenge for an OT loss in Norfolk.
IF NOT THEM THEN: #2 MTSU will likely have Giddy Potts back for the tournament it appears, and the Blue Raiders can be a tough out with their mobile bigs Darnell Harris and Reggie Upshaw, and they went 6-1 vs their half of the bracket. MTSU is going to play some harassing half court man to man, and they’re always going to dominate the defensive glass. The Blue Raiders have some issues though. They don’t have a PG, they creates some extra possessions with turnovers, but that leads to a ton of fouls, and they don’t get to the FT line at a high rate themselves. They’re not very strong around the rim offensively, and can be too reliant on jump shots falling. The athletic teams of the league (UAB, Marshall, LA Tech, Charlotte, WKU) have given them fits.
#4 Louisiana Tech is a dangerous team in the top half of the bracket, and one UAB would love to see get knocked off before the semis. Alex Hamilton is an impossible matchup at PG with his length and athleticism, and he’s been on some kind of tear to end the regular season with triple doubles and hyper efficient 30+ point outings. Pair him with a big, sharp shooting wing like Erik McCree and the athleticism of Dayon Griffin and Jacobi Boykins, and you have a team that can run you off the floor offensively. Defensively, they have some issues, namely they can’t defend in the paint, especially with Merrill Holden constantly in foul trouble. The Dunkin Dawgs can make life hell on the perimeter with all that length and athleticism, especially with FR Derric Jean coming on at the right time, but if you have guards who can handle the pressure and any semblance of a frontcourt, you can beat LA Tech. They’ll likely have to get by #5 Old Dominion, who I’m going to throw in this category as well. The Monarchs are a fairly brutal matchup for the Bulldogs because they’re going to limit possessions/transition opportunities and they run all their action to the rim, basically completely eschewing the three pointer, as no team in the country has a lower 3PTA rate than Jeff Jones’ squad. On top of that they’re the best defensive team in the league with the best defensive scheme in the league, playing lock down man to man 1-5. Oh and I haven’t even mentioned they have the indomitable Trey Freeman at the helm, and they turn the ball over at the lowest rate in the league, and they dominate the glass on both ends with Stith and Taylor. The Monarchs have no depth, so they really could have used that fourth bye, and LA Tech will be looking to avenge their loss in Ruston (their first home loss since 2013), but ODU’s strengths align perfectly with LA Tech’s weaknesses, and the Bulldogs’ strengths are areas of strength as well for ODU. The Monarchs will have #12 FAU first, who blew by Christian Wilson-less #13 UTSA in the play-in game. FAU’s defensive scheme is predicated on completely taking away the three point line and forcing you into shot swatter Ron Delph. Well, that doesn’t exactly line up well with ODU, who has zero interest in even taking the three, and Trey Freeman’s mid range game after beating the perimeter is second to none in all of D1.
TIER 1 SLEEPERS (AKA QUASI CONTENDERS): #3 Marshall is the most exciting offense in the league, running D’Antoni’s uptempo, three heavy spread offense, and they have a dynamic PG in Jon Elmore and a dominant, versatile big in James Kelly. However, it looks like the Herd are running out of gas, and teams are much more prepared for that pro style offense the second time around. Marshall lost 3 out of their last 4, and would have lost at home to USM with a bye on the line if not for a couple of miracle buzzer beaters. I have a sense the Herd might not survive past the winner of #6 UTEP and #11 FIU. UTEP particularly can give them some issues because they have the firepower on the floor offensively since Tim Floyd went to a smaller, four guard lineup, and to wit, in El Paso the Miners put up 112 points in regulation on 1.33ppp, with Artis, Lee, Moore, and Morris all waltzing to the rim. Since Floyd’s switch to a more perimeter oriented attack, the Miners are 6-2, but they have to get by a tough FIU team first, one of the better 11 seeds you’ll see in a tournament. The Panthers have a dominant big man in Adrian Diaz, but UTEP struggled more containing the roaming athleticism of Davyion Draper and the dribble penetration of Donte McGill. Slow down McGill with some of Floyd’s infamous junk zones, and you slow down Diaz, which is what happened in the second meeting, a UTEP win. The versatility of Terry Winn is key defensively on Draper tonight, but he has to be able to stay out of foul trouble. FIU is 2-9 in their last 11 CUSA games, with the wins coming over PIG participants FAU and UTSA.
I’m going to throw #8 Western Kentucky in this category, because I think they’re going to get by #9 North Texas with relative ease if Jeremy Combs can’t go (the dominant big man reportedly can barely run on his bad ankle), and these two teams are on opposite trajectories heading into the tournament as it is. UNT can still be dangerous with J-Mychal Reese at the point and a shooter like Deckie Johnson, and WKU has been atrocious at times defending on the perimeter, especially against ball screens, and UNT just beat a high octane Charlotte team without Combs (thanks to Eric Katenda filling his shoes more than capably on the block). On top of that, WKU could be looking ahead to UAB, a team that Ray Harper ominously said he’d “love to see again” after their narrow defeat in Birmingham. That said, WKU is clearly playing the better basketball right now, with Edmond and Cosby providing a slashing/shooting combo (if only Edmond could hit FTs) on the perimeter, and Harper actually getting some solid pick and roll defense from his bigs Johnson, Rostov, and Lawson, and McNeal had reduced the TOs at the point (until the OT game vs LA Tech, but that’s excusable, and they still won). The potential third meeting between UAB and WKU could certainly have some fireworks, especially after last year’s tournament game and Harper’s repeated barbs about the tournament being in Birmingham.
TIER 2 SLEEPERS: #7 Charlotte and #10 Rice both have a chance to make some noise, especially Charlotte because they felt like they should have won the first meeting with MTSU, but they’ll have to play each other first, and Rice’s defense couldn’t come close to containing Charlotte. Rice led 46-36 at the half in the first meeting. Since then, Charlotte has gone on a rampage, posting 1.36 and 1.16ppp and going 28-54 from 3 in the sweep. With outstanding FR PG Jon Davis at the helm, the Niners can handle Mike Rhoades’ pressure schemes, and they’re usually in a 4 out offense surrounding rebounding powerhouse Joe Uchebo, and Rice simply can’t match his physicality inside. The Owls have their own electric FR in Marcus Evans, who has proven to be an elite CUSA scorer in his first year in the league, and another FR, Marquez Letcher-Ellis, has proven to be nearly impossible to contain when he attacks from the wing with his 6’7 frame, and he went to the FT line at the third highest rate in CUSA play. Rice was devastated by injuries early, losing Marcus Jackson and Chad Lott, but Rhoades’ squad is going to be lethal next year with all the returning firepower.
CUSA FINALS PREDICTION: 1 UAB survives scares from WKU and ODU, and then waxes 2 MTSU in the finals
CUSA SECOND ROUND PREDICTIONS:
WESTERN KENTUCKY -7.5
OLD DOMINION -11
CHARLOTTE -5.5
UTEP -2
Staring at the Floorboards 
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