BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

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BIG SOUTH 2022-23 SEASON PREVIEW

1. LONGWOOD

WHAT I LIKE: After nearly pulling of an undefeated Big South season that culminated in a massacre of Winthrop in the Big South tourney final, the Lancers return nearly everyone…except outstanding PG Justin Hill [side note: Longwood hasn’t released their official roster yet, and Bart Torvik doesn’t list Isaiah Wilkins and Zac Watson as returning, but I’m 99% sure they are, so I will assume they’re still Lancers for the sake of this preview]. With Wilkins and Wade back off the ball (and the former can play on the ball as well) and floor stretcher Nate Lliteras, Longwood’s deadly shooting isn’t going anywhere (8th nationally in 3PT% last year). While Hill was electric on the ball last year, much credit has to be given to Griff Aldrich’s playbook, which created catch and shoots at a top 100 rate nationally, and the Lancers knocked them down with a top 20 efficiency, per ShotQuality. Aldrich will replace Hill on the ball with Southern Miss transfer Walyn Napper, who churned out the 2nd best assist rate in CUSA despite playing on a team that couldn’t hit the ocean. Pair Napper with Wilkins, Wade, and Lliteras, and he’s going to lead the Big South in assist rate. The Lancers’ frontcourt remains mostly intact with the return of Watson and Leslie Nkereuwem (and Wilkins, who was the best rebounder on the team), which means Longwood likely remains the Big South’s best rebounding team on both ends. Longwood’s on ball defense was already a plus between Wade and Wilkins, but UT Arlington transfer Nic Elame immediately becomes the best on ball defender on the team, and possibly the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the Lancers are elite on the ball defensively, they struggled defending actions off the ball, allowing a ghastly 1.4 PPP off actions ending in a cut, per ShotQuality. Despite playing a fairly compact, sagging defense, they also struggled at the rim, allowing the 9th highest PPP at the rim (1.2 PPP) in league play, with Nkereuwem being a rangy, roving defender more than a rim protector and Watson undersized vertically in the post.

2. WINTHROP

WHAT I LIKE: The traditional Big South powerhouse went 14-2 in Mark Prosser’s first season in Rock Hill, but ran into the Longwood buzzsaw. Similar to the Lancers, Winthrop will have to replace a major piece in block bully DJ Burns, but the Eagles should be more versatile and interchangeable in his wake- a more preferable style for Prosser’s uptempo 3PT barrage. Although the Eagles return Prosser favorite and inside out threat Corey Hightower, this is a very backcourt driven group with some intriguing portal additions in Howard Fleming (Illinois St), Kasen Harrison (Lamar), and Isaiah Wilson (Richmond). Fleming could be a league stealer with his size on the ball on both ends, and he and Wilson could make Winthrop the best perimeter defense in the league. Harrison meanwhile is an elite rim runner at the 2 when healthy. Micheal Anumba returns as an elite slasher (highest FT rate in the league) with a 40% 3PT mark, as does another Prosser mainstay Sin’Cere McMahon, giving Winthrop a deep and versatile backcourt. I mentioned Winthrop’s on ball defense being elite this year, but Chase Claxton and Kelton Talford’s range and athleticism in the frontcourt (along with healthy versions of Cam Whiteside and Toneari Lane on the wing) will be the reason the Eagles could challenge Gardner-Webb as the best defensive team in the league, with Claxton arguably the best pound for pound defensive player in the Big South. Consider Winthrop to be a co-favorite with Longwood as Big South preseason frontrunners.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While I mentioned why Winthrop’s offense is likely fine without DJ Burns, his absence still creates a major shot vacuum (highest shot rate and 2nd highest usage in the league), and his constant double teams were a big reason Winthrop was first in ShotQuality’s spacing, shot selection, and shot making last year. Michael Moore is talented frosh and the heir apparent to Burns, but he’s not going to draw nearly the same defensive attention yet.

3. GARDNER-WEBB

WHAT I LIKE: Having the best x’s and o’s coach in the league is a boon, and GWU’s defense is on another level, allowing just .93 PPP in league play last year with Tim Craft seamlessly morphing between stingy man to man and matchup zone that totally walled off the rim thanks to elite shot blockers Kareem Reid and Ludovic Dufeal, and roving wrecking ball Anthony Selden.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: GWU lost a LOT of offensive firepower from a team that was already middle-bottom of the league in offensive efficiency. DQ Nicholas (SEMO) and Lucas Steiber (Green Bay) will lead the backcourt, with the former an efficient probing combo guard with a more than respectable jump shot. Steiber and Julien Soumaoro will likely handle ball handling duties, but both have been incredibly turnover prone in their D1 careers. The elite defense will keep Gardner-Webb in contention for a league title, but I’m not sure they have the offensive horses to shoot with Longwood and Winthrop if the bottom tier spacing and shot making continue. D2 import Caleb Robinson however has the talent to quickly change GWU’s offensive fortunes on the wing.

4. UNC ASHEVILLE

WHAT I LIKE: The frontcourt, well namely Drew Pember. Pember returns as the league’s toughest cover, a roving 6’10 center who can dribble, shoot, post (although this is rare in Mike Morrell’s offense), and draws a merciless amount of contact (5 games with double digit FT attempts last year). Morrell beefed up the frontcourt with the addition of Amadou Sylla, who provides more of a brick wall presence at the rim while also logging the best OREB rate in the OVC last year. Sylla will allow Pember to really roam free at the 4 in big lineups and shore up the back end of a defense that’s entirely predicated on running offenses completely off the 3PT line and wreaking havoc with their up the line pressure (highest press rate in the league). While the press resulted in just the 6th highest TO rate in the league, the Bulldogs were 2nd in defensive efficiency margin in league play. Morrell has a deep if somewhat still undefined backcourt/wing corps. On ball options are plentiful between Trent Stephney, Hofstra transfer Caleb Burgess, and well traveled Alex Caldwell in the wake of massive volume point forward LJ Thorpe. UNCA’s 3PT shooting shouldn’t be an issue either with The Citadel marksman Fletcher Abee eligible and the return of the lethal Tajion Jones on the wing, who forms a nice yin/yang duo with slasher Jamon Battle. The Bulldogs are deep and possibly more versatile, even without Thorpe- Morrell could likely press north of 30% this year with this crew.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The rim defense on the back end of the press and hyper aggression on the 3PT line was a major issue, and if Morrell can’t play Sylla and Pember together for stretches, it will remain an issue (as will rebounding, where the Bulldogs were dead last in DREB% last year). Thorpe was a unique matchup on the ball, and while Stephney, Burgess, and Caldwell are all more traditional PG options, they’re far less dynamic offensively.

5. RADFORD

WHAT I LIKE: The assembled talent and versatility put together by Darris Nichols. After losing a few key players relatively late in the portal season, I openly questioned the state of the program, but Nichols was busy landing Pitt transfer Onyebuchi Ezeakudo from Pitt and most importantly Bryan Antoine from Villanova. If Antoine is fully healthy on the wing, he can completely change the complexion of Radford’s season. Antoine, Ezeakudo, Murray State transfer DaQuan Smith, and frosh PG Kenyon Giles completely revamp a terribly inefficient backcourt from last year that finished at 30% shooting from 3, dead last in attempt rate, and 10th in FT rate (spacing, shot making, and shot selection were equally miserable per ShotQuality). Josiah Jeffers is a backcourt holdover from last year, and his on-ball defense will keep him in rotation. Nichols significantly strengthened the frontcourt with Richmond transfer Sal Koureissi joining efficient if under utilized post option Shaquan Jules. D’Auntray Pierce was the real coup for Nichols, as he found a much needed shot blocker from the JUCO ranks. The Highlanders were dead last in block rate last year, but Pierce immediately and significantly alters that. Japanese high school sensation Ibu Yamazaki is arguably the most intriguing freshman in the league as a smooth shooting floor stretcher, giving Nicholls a much more diverse offensive attack this year.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Radford’s high ceiling is vaulted by Antoine staying healthy for a full season, something that has yet to happen, and the idea of down transfers finding their groove in a lower league- we’ve seen that formula fail several times over. There’s a lot to like with this roster, but consistent shooting from a team that shot 30% from 3 last year is no guarantee, and the top down offensive issues for this team were seismic.

6. CAMPBELL

WHAT I LIKE: Few teams are more predictable than Kevin McGeehan’s Camels with their Princeton motion (although the offense has been increasingly mixed with ball screen continuity) and middle of the pack defensive efficiency (although the frequency of the matchup zone has decreased). Both point-centers return in Jesus Carralero and Josh Lusane, but the wing shooters are gone. Ricky Clemons returns, but he can’t shoot (making his insane efficiency numbers even more startling), and McGeehan desperately needs the Devon Dunn of two seasons ago to show up. The difference in Dunn’s two seasons at Fairleigh Dickinson are absolutely stunning (90 ORtg in NEC play last year compared to 128 the year before).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Alabama State transfer Juan Reyna is a knock down shooter on the wing, but he can’t really defend, and UK import Elijah Walsh will have to turn heads immediately, that’s how unsettled the wing situation is in Buies Creek. McGeehan’s defense was actually pretty solid last year, especially in PNR and forcing teams to execute late in the shot clock- but the majority of those key defenders are gone now (with the exception of Clemons), and as I mentioned, Dunn, Walsh, and Reyna aren’t going to defend at the same level.

7. USC UPSTATE

WHAT I LIKE: USCUp is an extremely dangerous offensive team because of their spacing and constant off ball screening, and Jordan Gainey absolutely torched the Big South nets in his first season, becoming one of the best shooters in the entire country. Gainey’s efficiency numbers are off the charts, and that’s usually the case when you hit an absurd 54% of your league threes- it’s remarkable Dave Dickerson was able to keep him on campus this season. UTEP transfer Che Evans could be an immediate difference maker on the wing with one of the league’s highest recruiting pedigrees, forming a long, athletic 2/3 combo with defensive ace Mysta Goodloe.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The pieces around Gainey are far less certain, which puts his efficiency and ability to get quality shots into question. The heir apparent at PG in Dalvin White’s absence is Jalen Breazeale, who really struggled with turnovers and shooting his freshman season, and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see former 3 star JMU recruit Andrew McConnell or Navy transfer Trae Broadnax usurp the role quickly (both McConnell and Broadnax are the wildcards in Upstate’s season trajectory). Upstate lost a lot of wing shooting around Gainey, and Dickerson will be relying heavily on Floyd Rideau to rediscover his shooting stroke from 2 seasons ago when he was one of the MEAC’s most efficient shooter (in a limited covid season), and a healthy Nick Alves could be a difference maker, as he showed major potential against Tennessee, Wake Forest, and Furman last year before injury. Upstate was throttled at the rim and in post defense last year, and West Virginia transfer Seny N’diaye will be relied upon immediately to bolster Khydarius Smith, who graded out in just the 7th percentile nationally in post defense, per Synergy. N’diaye however doesn’t bring the floor stretching offensive repertoire of departed Josh Aldrich, which will again have a major affect on Upstate’s elite spacing and shooting from last season.

8. HIGH POINT

WHAT I LIKE: It was an extremely weird season for HPU with Tubby Smith’s covid related illness and ultimate retirement, paving the way for his son to formally take over. GG Smith will have to deal with the departure of program great John Michael Wright, but often replacing an extremely high volume guard leads to better efficiency and balance. Some combo of Bryant Randleman, Minnesota transfer Laye Thiam, and Jaden House will handle on ball duties, with Thiam offering the most likely path to JMW’s offensive replication. Randleman is a bulldog on the ball defensively but lacks the offense, and House is better served as a rim slasher. Pepperpot Bryson Childress will finally have a chance to unleash, as the 5’8 shooter can make threes in bunches when given the chance. Zach Austin is one of the league’s best 3 and D guys in a small ball lineup, but it will remain to be seen how he responds to being the primary offensive option (a lot is tethered to the effectiveness of Thiam).

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: Despite deploying the ubiquitous Tubby Smith ball-line defense, HPU was still somehow routinely worked at the rim, and a mediocre defense could have been near the bottom of the league if offenses didn’t hit a lowly 27% from 3 against the Panthers. Ahmard Harvey brings some athleticism to the frontcourt out of Coastal Carolina, but the team’s best shot blocker can’t stay out of foul trouble when he’s on the floor (Emmanuel Izunabor). Alex Holt is the best offensive option in the frontcourt, but he’s a subpar rebounder and defender.

9. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN

WHAT I LIKE: It’s been a rough go of late for longtime Bucs’ coach Barclay Radebaugh, as CSU has managed just 3 total league wins the past 2 seasons. However, there’s reason for optimism as CSU reloaded with high upside guys, and this ranking could easily be my biggest miss in the Big South. The backcourt is particularly loaded with URI transfer Tres Berry, Holy Cross scoring PG RJ Johnson, and talented frosh Kheni Briggs joining proven scorer Claudell Harris and one of the country’s highest volume 3PT shooter Tahlik Chavez, who had a permanent green light on the highest 3PTA rate offense in the league.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: While the backcourt looks like one of the best units in the league, it’s important to remember this team finished dead last in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The insane 3PTA rate came tethered to 32% shooting from deep, and at the expense of efficient rim option Taje Kelly. CSU allowed a grotesque 1.23 PPP at the rim in league play, and they really struggled defending off the ball. App State transfer RJ Duhart is a legit shot blocker that allows roving defender Cheikh Faye (one of the league’s more intriguing, if maddeningly inconsistent, two way 4s) to be unleashed, providing some hope on that front.

10. PRESBYTERIAN

WHAT I LIKE: The backcourt. Quinton Ferrell pulled off a stunner when he landed 4 star PG Quadir Pettaway, who can instantly move Trevon Reddish-Rhone off the ball as he attempts to cover the scoring void left by Rayshon Harrison. Winston Hill is also one of the league’s most efficient bigs, despite lacking a strong vertical game.

WHAT I DON’T LIKE: The Blue Hose shot just 26% from 3 while teams hit 38% against them- that’s a recipe for last place. Ferrell loves to extend pressure (28% rate per Synergy), but it accomplishes very little, and Hill was actually a solid post defender in the halfcourt. More often than not, the press seemed to undermine PC’s collective defensive efforts. Shooting will have to level out on both ends of the floor, and I’m not sure that’s going to be the case offensively, given the fact ShotQuality saw little bad luck involved in PC’s poor shooting. However, the defense did allow the lowest open 3 rate in league play per SQ, so there’s certainly reason to believe opponents won’t be hitting upwards of 40% against them again.

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

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BIG SOUTH 2021-22 EARLY SEASON PREVIEW

1. WINTHROP– Gone are Pat Kelsey, Chandler Vaudrin, Adonis Arms, Charles Falden, and Kyle Zunic, which would make you think Winthrop finally takes a step back in the Big South in Mark Prosser’s first season. That however would be a foolhardy notion, as Prosser brought a few key pieces with him from Western Carolina, and added some immediate help transfers to a solid returning nucleus as well. Drew Buggs will immediately take over at the point, and it’s important to remember how dominant of a distributor he was at Hawaii after sort of getting lost in the shuffle at Missouri. Buggs led the Big West in assist rate twice and is the Bows’ all-time leader in assists. He’s a true pass first PG in Prosser’s small ball, spread PNR attack. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by lethal spot shooter and plus on ball defender Patrick Good, last of ETSU. Russ Jones has shown flashes of exciting play making on the ball, and Sin’Cere McMahon should carve out a role as a tertiary ball handler and spot shooter to give the backcourt some solid depth. The wing corps is deep if slightly unspectacular, unless guys like Jamal King live up to their recruiting pedigree. Micheal Anumba is an efficient slasher, and D2 addition Cam Whiteside can provide some immediate scoring punch. King and deadeye Josh Corbin are the guys to keep an eye on, as both could fulfill their potential with more minutes under Prosser. The frontcourt should be the heart of this team, with DJ Burns returning to the post. Burns’ body belies one of the silkiest post games in the country. He’ll have a new running mate at the 4 with Cory Hightower making the move with Prosser. Hightower is an exceptional big to big passer, but an inefficient scorer around the rim and tends to think his game is stretchier than it actually is. His efficiency numbers should improve playing alongside double magnet Burns. Burns and Chase Claxton will have to improve their defensive rebounding, as Vaudrin and Arms rebounded their positions as well as anyone in the country. The offensive system (spread PNR, probing early and often in transition) under Prosser will look exactly like Kelsey’s (which isn’t a surprise given Prosser’s 6 seasons spent with Kelsey on Winthrop’s bench), but the defense will be a concern. Prosser’s best defensive showing at WCU isn’t even worth mentioning here, and outside of Good, there are major defensive red flags for the core nucleus.
2. CAMPBELL– I’d be happy to listen to arguments for the Camels as the preseason team to beat, and I’d consider them 1b to Winthrop coming in to the season. Kevin McGeehan essentially returns everyone from a team that was darn near unbeatable down the stretch when they were healthy, until they ran into the Winthrop buzzsaw. McGeehan’s modified Princeton offense will once again run through Jesus Carralero and Josh Lusane in the high post. Lusane was absolute efficiency monster in that offense when pressed into a bigger role when Carralero was hurt, and now McGeehan has two bigs to serve as the fulcrum of the off ball motion offense. Ced Henderson and Ricky Clemons will reprise their roles as the late shot clock bucket getters (and it’s always a late shot clock with this offense) who can break down defenses when the offense stagnates (in somewhat limited minutes, Clemons posted the country’s highest free throw rate). Jordan Whitfield and Messiah Thompson are undersized but absolutely deadly snipers in this offense, and the main reason the Camels hit at 40% from deep in league play. JUCO scorer Dakari Johnson fits the Whitfield/Thompson mold exactly, and will carve out some minutes if he can defend. Defensively, the Camels struggled to defend in the halfcourt, and were only slightly better in McGeehan’s tricky 3-2 matchup zone press. Overall, this is one of the most veteran teams in the country with oodles of “institutional knowledge” of intricate systems on both ends of the floor. That makes the Camels extremely dangerous in the Big South.
3. UNC-ASHEVILLE– Mike Morrell returns a solid guard nucleus and the best “center” (Evan Clayborne stands just 6’6) in the Big South not named DJ Burns. Morrell’s rosters are predicated on versatility and speed, as he runs a 4 out spread PNR on offense and presses at the 7th highest rate, per Synergy, on defense. The lead guards in this system are 6’5 point-forward/rim bruiser LJ Thorpe and probing combo guard Trent Stephney, the head of the PNR attack. Thorpe is the true catalyst for Morrell’s offense however, as his size and versatility with the ball makes him a matchup nightmare in this league. Morrell replaced the mercurial Lavar Batts with the equally mercurial Jordan Hairston in the backcourt. Batts was the head of the up the line pressure, but fell off a cliff offensively. Hairston meanwhile is a solid on ball defender himself and a much better shooter, especially if you extract his injury plagued final season at TAMUCC. The wing corps is fronted by Jamon Battle and Tajion Jones, with the latter being one of the league’s more deadly snipers, and an elite scorer at this level, but neither are particularly strong defenders. Clayborne is the engine that makes Morrell’s defense go, as he makes up what he lacks in height with versatility and athleticism. At 6’6, Clayborne was one of the league’s top rebounders on both ends and posted the 4th highest block rate- he is the quintessential Morrell era player. While Clayborne was outstanding defensively and on the glass, he had little frontcourt help (stretch 4 Coty Jude is simply on the floor for his jump shot), and due to his shot blocking propensity, defensive rebounding as a whole suffered greatly. Morrell hopes he addressed that with the addition of Tennessee transfer Drew Pember, who can allow him to go to a bigger lineup and utilize Clayborne’s versatility more so against the league’s better frontcourts, and freak athlete Silas Mason could be due for a breakout season (a Clayborne and Mason frontcourt could have the league’s bigs’ heads spinning). The Bulldogs play hard and physical, but halfcourt defense remains an issue at several positions.
4. NORTH CAROLINA A&T– The Aggies are poised to make a major splash in their first Big South season, as Will Jones has assembled by far the most talented roster in the league with the highest upside. The recruiting class, headlined by Duncan Powell (a 6’8 power forward with ball skills and plus plus athleticism), the best recruit in the history of NC A&T, and a slew of transfers will join arguably the best point guard in the league in Kam Langley. Langley has posted a top 5 assist rate nationally the past 3 seasons, and is a relentless downhill attacker out of ball screens. The 5th year PG is the perfect keystone for Jones to integrate his talented recruiting class around. Joining Langley in the backcourt will be his running mate from last season, Blake Harris. Harris, nee of Mizzou and NC State, is another constantly probing combo guard with blow by dribble drive skills. Jones really addressed the Aggies’ biggest deficiency offensively, which was perimeter shooting, with the additions of former La Salle/USCe combo guard David Beatty and IPFW wing Demetric Horton. Jones also did major renovations to the frontcourt, adding former Ok State/NMSU 3/4 Marcus Watson, who can dominate the glass in this league and will play a similar role to UNCA’s Evan Clayborne in terms of his versatility (particularly in Jones’ defensive scheme). Justin Whatley makes the 40 minute trip on 85S from Durham to Greensboro, and will provide solid glass work and plus passing out of the post, assuming he’s fully healthy after a tumultuous last season at NCC. Webster Filmore is a dunk machine at the 5, and will benefit greatly from all the defensive attention Powell will receive. Add Harry Morrice to the mix, who has a unique skill set for a 7 footer, and the frontcourt is just as deep and talented as the backcourt. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Jones’ recruiting class is that they all fit in well (particularly Horton and Watson) with his extremely extended amorphous matchup zone that produced the country’s 7th highest turnover rate (with Langley notching the 4th highest steal rate nationally). Ideally Watson, Whatley, and Powell shore up the defensive rebounding issues that are inherent with that scheme. Don’t be surprised when the Aggies are running and gunning in their new conference home.
5. GARDNER-WEBB– Tim Craft has a lot of talent to replace at the top of the roster, but D’Maurian Williams is poised for a huge second season as the alpha in Jaheam Cornwall’s stead. Williams is a 6’5 true three level scorer with plus ball skills. He could dominate this year, especially if Jordan Sears, another second year guard due for a breakout, can handle on-ball duties for the majority of the time. Sears and Williams can easily play off each other similar to Williams and Cornwall last year, and a hopefully healthy Lance Terry could reap the benefits of defenses overplaying that duo. 6’6 Anthony Selden (yes, Wayne’s brother) showed promise as a versatile disruptor defensively, something Craft desperately needs for this squad. The frontcourt of Ludo Dufeal and Kareem Reid posted two of the top 5 block rates in league play, which consequently lead to GWU allowing the 27th lowest FGA rate at the rim, per hoop-math, as offenses tried to avoid the rim protecting monsters. If Williams, Sears, and Selden all post big second year leaps, the Runnin’ Dawgs have arguably the highest ceiling in the league.
6. LONGWOOD– I’m a big Griff Aldrich fan and he certainly has the Lancers heading in the right direction, which is a herculean task historically. Aldrich was dealt a blow with the loss of Juan Munoz, but replaced him with a ton of down transfer talent, all long and interchangeable pieces. The backcourt has three on-ball options in Justin Hill (the penetrator), Jordan Perkins (the true distributor who tallied a top 5 assist rate in the MEAC in all 4 seasons, but offset it with a million turnovers), Da Houston (combo guard from C of C), and Isaiah Wilkins (long 2 with ball skills from two ACC programs). Volume shooter DeShaun Wade will only see more wide open shots with this plethora of ball handlers in Aldrich’s Tony Shaver inspired three point barrage, as will 6’6 wing Jesper Granlund. Granlund is joined on the wings by hyper-versatile Zac Watson, arguably the best overall defender in the league, and Michael Christmas out of JMU, who should see an improvement in his offensive efficiency in this system and league. The frontcourt is highlighted by potential breakout candidate Leslie Nkereuwem, who flashed a rapidly developing post skill set to match his explosive athleticism. Nkereuwem still struggled with defensive awareness and was subpar on the glass for his size and athleticism. Chattanooga transfer Prosper Obidiebube could help in that regard, and Nate Lliteras showed strong defensive rebounding numbers and stretch games in first season in Farmville. If Aldrich gets all the piece working in his prolific three point offense and Nkereuwem continues to develop on both ends, Longwood should enjoy their first winning Big South season.
7. PRESBYTERIAN– There’s some definite talent here for Quinton Ferrell to have the Hose making some noise in his third season. Ferrell made some significant progress on the defensive end last year (honestly there was nowhere to go but up), as his extended pressure led to the league’s highest turnover rate (and highest foul rate), and was the catalyst behind the catapult to the 4th most efficient Big South D. Unfortunately the offense took a huge step backward, despite the emergence of potential league superstar Rayshon Harrison. Harrison blossomed as one of the league’s premier slashers thanks to his length and athleticism. Ferrell has nixed a traditional PG in his offense, preferring the matchup difficulties the lengthy Harrison, Trevon Reddish, and Ambaka Le Gregam afford him on the ball on both ends. UAB transfer Terrell Ard should slot in at the 3 immediately, and suddenly the Blue Hose have disproportionant length and athleticism to the rest of the league at 1-3. The frontcourt will once again feature the below the rim but smooth post play of Winston Hill and the stretch game of Owen McCormack. If the defense continues to trend upward and Harrison gets some help on the ball and the turnovers at least somewhat evaporate, the Blue Hose will be a tough out.
8. RADFORD– I love the Darris Nichols hire. He’s familiar to the program and has played/worked for John Beilein, Bob Huggins, Mike Young, and most recently Mike White. Nichols has his work cut out for him however, as he has to replace the Big South’s best pound for pound coach, and one of midmajordom’s most dynamic PNR guards in Fah’mir Ali. Few, if any, teams utilized ball screens more frequently than Radford under Mike Jones, and Nichols should continue that tradition, as he comes from one of the more innovative PNR offenses in Florida. Replacing Ali at the top will be difficult, and Nichols will most likely rely on a committee approach of Xavier Lipscomb, Roshaun Black, and Artese Stapleton. The wing corps has talent and length and plus rebounding from Chyree Walker and newcomers Derrick Jones and South Florida transfer Rashun Williams. The frontcourt however should be Radford’s strength, thanks to hyper efficient roll men Lew Djonkam and potential breakout star Shaquan Jules, while Dravon Mangum provides some stretch game. Radford should contend for a top half finish in Nichols’ first season, and it shouldn’t be long before he has the Highlanders back among the Big South’s elite.
9. HAMPTON– Buck Joyner’s defenses have been a shell of their former MEAC selves since joining the Big South, as the hyper-aggressive and physical bump and run fullcourt pressure has been AWOL. Joyner loses 6’6 three level volume shooter Davion Warren, the heart and soul of the Pirates, but hope is not lost for the Bucs to look like the MEAC Hampton of old. Deuce Dean returns at the point and will be the focal point of one of the country’s more prolific PNR offenses (20th highest rate nationally, per Synergy). Dean isn’t the most efficient of scorers, but he has great length and vision at the point, and draws a ton of contact with his big frame. Dean will be aided by the additions of Harvard’s Rio Haskett, who has a jump shot and the on ball defensive presence Joyner’s squads have lacked of late, and C of C’s DeAngelo Epps, a slightly bigger version of Haskett. Delaware State’s Pinky Wiley adds extremely quick hands should Joyner revive the defensive ball pressure, and Marquis Godwin was a volume shooter on the wing in his first season over from ODU. This is all to say there are backcourt/wing options to replace Warren’s offensive output by committee, but no one player is likely to emerge as the pure volume scorer he was, which might actually be a good thing. The frontcourt might actually be the source of the majority of Hampton’s offense this year with the addition of Nicholls State block scorer Najee Garvin. Gavin is a plus defensive rebounder, but a black hole when the ball gets in his hands, and he’s not the most efficient scorer around the rim. It appears Dajour Dickens is returning to reprise his role as one of the country’s premier rim protectors (2nd highest block rate nationally), while a fully healthy Ed Oliver-Hampton would be a major boon on the glass, and he looked like a breakout scoring threat at the rim before injury last year.
10. HIGH POINT– I love Tubby Smith, but you have to wonder if the flex offense and ball-line defense are relics of the past, as his High Point teams have been dreadful on both ends of the floor the past two seasons, with do-absolutely-everything mega stud John-Michael Wright being the sole reason the Panthers have stayed afloat. Few players in the entire country mean more to their team than JMW, and his on/off offensive splits per Hooplens reflect that, as HPU’s offense plummets to an anemic .85ppp when he’s off the floor. The good news for Tubby is that JMW is back, as is nearly everyone else of consequence. The bad news is that this same squad has notched just 6 Big South wins each of the past two years. Three sophomore guards showed scoring promise opposite JMW as freshmen last year. Jaden House, Ahmil Flowers, and particularly entire gym range lightning bolt Bryson Childress could all make big leaps in their second and hopefully more normal seasons under Tubby. The frontcourt isn’t terrible, especially if Lydell Elmore returns and floor stretcher David Caraher looks like he did at HBU after a few nondescript seasons at St. John’s. Emmanuel Izunabor will return as the final line of defense on the back end of the ball line, giving Tubby one of the more solid and reliable frontcourts in the league.
11. CHARLESTON SOUTHERN– Chuck South suffered through one of the more disappointing seasons in all of D1, and it’s hard to imagine things improving significantly without Phlan Fleming to bail the Bucs out. That said, there’s some reason for optimism for longtime CSU coach Barclay Radebaugh. Emorie Knox showed promise as a PG with a jump shot and Ja’Quavian Florence has Fleming potential written all over him. A healthy Sean Price and Travis Anderson gives Radebaugh another slashing wing and combo guard scoring threat respectively, while newcomers Tahlik Chavez and Cheikh Faye add much needed perimeter shooting, the latter of the stretch variety. Undersized rim protector Imajae Dodd out of UNCW provides some much needed interior help to the frontcourt, but this unit is still well below the rest of the league, although veteran Sadarius Bowser showed some refined post work late in the year.
12. USC UPSTATE– Likely tough sledding for Dave Dickerson again, whose Upstate teams have been atrocious defensively and not much better offensively, as he lost Tommy Bruner and Everette Hammond to the portal (and a lateral moves to UMass-Lowell and Jacksonville to rub salt in the wound). Dalvin White will be in full command of the offense, and he showed a solid handle with a lethal jumpshot, but he’ll need a healthy Mysta Goodloe and a breakout performance from Quentin Hodge to keep up those efficiency numbers in the wake of Bruner and Hammond. A Hodge/Goodloe/Bryson Mozone (deadly sharpshooter) triumvirate has plus length and solid scoring upside at the 2 and wing. The frontcourt is a disaster area, unless former top 50 recruit Khavon Moore actually makes his Upstate debut. He’s not currently listed on Upstate’s roster and was technically eligible to play starting last December. If he’s no longer an option for Dickerson, the Nevin Zink/Josh Aldrich duo will continue to get bludgeoned at the rim.

BIG SOUTH TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

WHO SHOULD WIN: Winthrop, and it’s not really all that close. The Eagles dominated BSC play thanks an unrivaled blend of experience, versatility, and skill. The Eagles have a lot of interchangeable parts, and Vaudrin, Arms, Zunic, and even Burns are capable of initiating offense in Pat Kelsey’s free flowing offense. The Eagles employ an aggressive modified pack line defense that was the league’s best unit by far. If the Eagles have a weakness, they can throw the ball around the gym sometimes and lack a true ballhandling guard vs pressure, which disjoints the offense. But overall, the Eagles are a complete team. They dominate the glass, make you grind out possessions vs their defense, and their versatility presents matchup problems across the board.

IF NOT THEM THEN: Winthrop’s half of the bracket isn’t without potential pitfalls. UNCA lurks at the 4 seed, the only team to knock off Winthrop in BSC play, and nearly swept the Eagles as well. Winthrop had some troubling containing UNCA’s talented backcourt/wing stable, but the Bulldogs didn’t play a single game in the ENTIRE MONTH OF FEBRUARY and are without DeVon Baker. I think it’s fair to be extremely skeptical of the Bulldogs’ chances. That said, 5 seed Longwood is likely without stud FR PG Justin Hill, which would be an absolutely devastating loss (especially against UNCA’s pressure) for a Lancer squad that had a tremendous year and played an extremely solid pack line defense themselves. High Point gave Winthrop a pair of challenges, but they’ll have to get by USC Upstate first to have another crack at the Eagles. HPU has a powerhouse PG in John-Michael Wright, and he missed both games against USCUp. Tubby Smith’s aggressive ball-line defense did give Winthrop some issues, turning the Eagles over 30 times.

All of that said, the Eagles’ biggest problems lie on the opposite side of the bracket, and my pick to emerge from that half is 3 seed Campbell. Kevin McGeehan’s modified Princeton offense is clicking at an extremely high level at exactly the right time, and they’re healthier with point-center Jesus Carralero back in the fold. The Camels nearly stole at Rock Hill two months ago, and their halfcourt pressure defense and tricky matchup zone poses problems on quick turnarounds. This is an extremely dangerous team. Campbell’s path the title game isn’t an easy one though. 6 seed Gardner-Webb is the league’s CHAOS TEAM because of their game by game volatility and exclusive reliance on the 3. 2 seed Radford holds some intrigue, as they swept Campbell (albeit with some serious luck in 3OT and after trailing by double digits in both second halves), and Mike Jones’ teams are always a nightmare to deal with. This Radford team is one of his finest coaching jobs given their overall lack of experience, but they’re still capable of running you into the ground with physical ball pressure and methodical ball screen after ball screen after ball screen on the other end. You really have to guard the Highlanders for the entire shot clock, and PG Ali has come into his own offensively. Radford went 3-1 against the Presbyterian/Hampton winner that awaits them, and I have no idea who wins that one. The constantly downhill attacking Hose got elite shot blocker Dickens in foul trouble in the first meeting and took advantage, in the second game, Warren shredded a pretty awful Presbyterian press. Speaking of pressure, Buck Joyner ALWAYS cranks up the pressure in tournament settings, and he’s been holding back due to roster limitations this year. I expect Joyner to let it rip now.

PREDICTION: WINTHROP OVER CAMPBELL

Big South Tournament Preview

Bracket

WHEN: 2/28-3/5

WHERE: Campus site for first round, Winthrop hosts quarters/semis, highest remaining seed hosts title game

My thoughts and a general primer on the Big South Tournament can be found at midmajormadness.com, but here’s a look at the first round games and set quarters…

#10 Presbyterian at #7 Campbell

The Blue Hose limp into Buies Creek hurt and nursing an 8 game losing streak (Millner out for the tournament per the estimable Dave Friedman) . I love Coach Nibert, but having a hard time seeing PC pulling off an opening day surprise like last year against Radford. Campbell had no problem running their motion against PC’s zone, and Chris Clemons was too quick for it to be effective anyway, hitting gaps off the dribble with ease in both matchups. If the Camels do advance, can they give UNCA a game? No, not really. The Bulldogs are uniquely quick and long on the perimeter, and they really harassed Clemons in Asheville, and when you take away a guy who is 5th nationally in usage and 2nd nationally in % of his team’s shots, you’re not left with a lot. Clemons didn’t play in the meeting in Buies Creek, however.

#9 Longwood at #8 Charleston Southern

The Bucs swept this series this year, but I’m sure Barclay Radebaugh would love to exact some revenge on the Lancers after being knocked out in their first Big South game two years running by Longwood (the loss and subsequent “drama” two years ago as the one seed still haunts him I’m sure). CSU is tiny. Javis Howard is their only frontcourt player and Radebaugh has to rely on uber frosh Christian Keeling to make up a lot of the glass work that’s missing. Keeling is a phenomenal rebounding guard, currently playing out of position. Longwood has once again been limited by injuries, especially at PG, but this is a game Khris Lane really has to dominate at the rim. He was 10-12 from 2 against CSU on Saturday, and realistically should put up similar numbers again. Longwood surprised by starting the conference season 3-0. They haven’t won since. They have a physical edge over the Bucs, but the lack of a point guard really limits any continuity offensively. Winner gets Winthrop, and the Eagles had no issues with either in all four meetings.

Looking ahead to the set quarterfinal games…

#6 Radford struggled against #3 Liberty’s pack line in both meetings, as McKay’s defense neutralized Ed Polite. Radford’s underrated and undersized big man was 6-24 from the field in two Radford losses to the Flames. That said, Radford’s defense really focuses on staying at home on shooters and that Polite/Phillips frontcourt is small but mobile, allowing them to really disrupt the perimeter attack and weave of Liberty (the Flames have by far the highest 3PTA rate in the league). Liberty might have won both meetings, but it wasn’t pretty (in OT win at Radford they were up 37-12 (in 2H!) before needing 5 extra to hold on). Essentially neither offense is built to beat the opposing defense. With injuries at PG Radford can’t break down pack line of Liberty, three point reliant Flames can’t find consistent open looks against a defense that forces you off the line.

#5 High Point can present some problems for my Big South sleeper #4 Gardner-Webb. HPU defensively will use some different zone looks and generally pack it in, which is a problem for a team that works exclusively downhill and attacks the rim in transition. That said, HPU is down a ball handler in Wright, which allows Rideau’s ball hawking to be even more effective. If Robateu and O’Reilly are hitting shots early, the lane will really open up for Rideau and GWU can start working downhill. The Runnin Bulldogs are a tough matchup in a short rest tournament setting.

PREDICTIONS: Campbell -13, Longwood +11

SEASON PREDICTIONS: 1772-1570-68, 340-292-16

Buffalo +4.5

Rutgers +6

Seton Hall -3.5

Miami OH +14.5

EMU -2.5

 

South Carolina -13

BGSU +3

Missouri +4

Toledo -5.5

Duke -7

Purdue -11

Davidson -3

NIU -2

Creighton -9

PC -11.5

Penn St -1.5

Oklahoma St +3

Pitt +2

Vandy +11.5

Boise St -4.5

Wyoming +7.5

 

 

2016-2017 Big South Preview

TEAM TO BEAT: Last year’s Big South Tournament champion UNC Asheville certainly looked poised to return to the big dance with Sam Hughes being the only senior, but once again Nick McDevitt was hit hard by upward transfers with Dwayne Sutton and Dylan Smith leaving the program. McDevitt and the Bulldogs will quickly reload, but those losses mean co-regular season champ Winthrop is likely the team to beat again, especially with the return of spark plug Keon Johnson. The diminutive Johnson steered a Winthrop offense that played at the fastest pace in the Big South, shot 40% from 3, and 56% from 2. The Eagles played at the 20th fastest adjusted tempo in the country, a trend that has been evolving from Pat Kelsey since he took over in 2012-13. Under Kelsey, the Eagles have sped up significantly each year, from 327th to 215th to 117th and finally to 20th. Kelsey’s teams have always been good shooting, high volume three point attempt rate teams, and last year was no exception, but the Eagles do have to replace marksman Jimmy Gavin. Johnson and Gavin were a tremendous shooting/penetrating duo last year, but the Broman brothers (Anders joins Bjorn after transferring from South Dakota State) will see plenty of opportunities from outside at the off guard position. SO Adam Pickett showed potential in the backcourt, especially defensively, and FR Patrick Fisher should figure in the guard rotation as well. The loss of Gavin is significant in the backcourt, but if Bjorn Broman develops into half the volume scorer he was in high school, the Eagles are going to be more than fine. Broman had a rough FR year in terms of shooting the ball, but he did shoot the three significantly better when Big South play came around. The Eagles are loaded at the 3/4. Rod Perkins returns after missing all of the Big South season with an injury, and his athleticism on the perimeter is a big bonus defensively. Kelsey also welcomes back Tevin Prescott from a redshirt season, and the hard working former walk on should see plenty of open looks around the rim as the foil to the outstanding Xavier Cooks, a stretch 4 who forms the core of the Eagles alongside Keon Johnson. Cooks is a highly athletic 6’8 that’s comfortable popping out on the perimeter both offensively and defensively, as he shot 45% from 3 to go along with his 59% shooting from 2 in Big South play, and notched the third highest block rate in the league as well. He’s also the team’s best rebounder, but that’s an area Kelsey needs to dramatically improve overall with this squad. Senior glue guy Josh Davenport and the league’s best shot blocker Duby Okeke round out the frontcourt. With the versatility that the return of Perkins and Prescott gives Kelsey (and if the Bromans can make up Gavin’s production alongside Johnson), the Eagles are the favorite to represent the Big South in the NCAA Tournament, and finally get over the title game hump, where they’ve fallen in each of the past three seasons.

IF NOT THEM THEN: Let’s go with Liberty here. Ritchie McKay pulled off one of the more unheralded coaching jobs in his return to Lynchburg. McKay installed a pack line defense and the Flames went from 2 Big South wins to 10, while working in an almost entirely new roster. The fortune of the Flames also rose with the eligibility of Marquette transfer John Dawson, as Liberty hadn’t won a D1 game until he became available at the start of the second semester. Dawson did everything for the Flames as he had the 4th highest assist rate in league play and was one of the best rebounding guards in the entire country. With how quickly this roster bought into McKay’s defense, I expect the Flames to be the best defensive team in the league in year two of the pack line, which generally takes a few years to fully grasp. Dawson will be joined by SO Lovell Cabbil, a capable ball handler to move Dawson off the ball at times, a decent shooter, and a very good perimeter defender. Ryan Kemrite and Caleb Homesley form a solid 6’4 duo on the wing, with both being volume three point shooters for a team that had the 7th highest 3PTA rate in the country last year. Homesley is the more versatile of the two, and McKay’s best all around defender, capable of guarding 2-4. The rest of the frontcourt is a little murky and reliant on new faces with Evan Maxwell leaving for Kansas. AC Reid is a 6’5 perimeter threat with experience in McKay’s system, and 6’8 stretch 4 Ezra Talbert has the highest ceiling in the frontcourt. FR Myo Baxter-Bell is in the vein of VCU big man Mo Alie Cox. He’s not tall, but he’s athletic, wide, and physical. Ezra’s brother Josiah should also factor in, but the 6’7 FR Brock Gardner could be the x-factor for the Flames this year. He’s got perimeter skills and outstanding athleticism, and could be a matchup nightmare for smaller Big South teams.

CONTENDERS: Despite the losses of Sutton, Smith, and Hughes, you can’t count out Nick McDevitt’s UNC Asheville Bulldogs, as you know he’s going to have more interchangeable athletic wings he can plug into his pressure heavy defensive schemes, which resulted in the league’s highest TO rate and 12th highest in the country. Leading that pressure will be Ahmad Thomas, who had the 10th highest steal rate in the country last year. Thomas will have to be more consistent offensively though if the Bulldogs are going to have a realistic shot at repeating, but he’ll have some help in the backcourt with the return of David Robertson from injury and the addition of arguably the best incoming FR in the league, MaCio Teague. Teague is exactly the type of backcourt talent McDevitt specializes in, and he’ll be a factor for the Bulldogs immediately. High scoring Ohio prep Drew Rackley also figures to see plenty of minutes immediately as well. Kevin Vannatta returns to the backcourt as well, a key cog with his penetration ability, which helped lead UNCA to the league’s highest FTA rate. Vannatta, Thomas, and Robertson are all going to be responsible for “PG” duties, but McDevitt’s system really deemphasizes relying on a “primary” ballhandler. If you can create turnovers and wreak havoc on the perimeter, you’re going to see the floor. The frontcourt is small, but mobile with Will Weeks at the 4, a versatile defender and efficient scoring threat when healthy. Something to watch early with the Bulldogs is the playing time of Giacomo Zilli in the frontcourt. He was a major factor late in 2015, then in essentially disappeared last year.

SLEEPERS (basically everyone else): High Point, who has won or shared the Big South regular season title four years in a row without a trip to the NCAA Tournament to show for it, loses the most dominant big man in the league in John Brown (who missed the Big South Tournament last year with a foot injury, a brutal end to a brilliant mid major career), and three other key seniors. However, there is reason for optimism for Panther fans with a developing sophomore class led by Andre Fox and Ricky Madison potentially ready to take over. Fox is a slasher with an inconsistent jumper, while Madison is a versatile 6’7 who can expand his game to the perimeter this year. Scott Cherry is likely going to have rework the league’s most efficient offense around those two, as HPU obviously ran everything through Brown and relied on the shooting of Lorenzo Cugini when teams inevitably sagged and collapsed in on the paint. Anthony Lindauer returns as the best shooter on a team that didn’t shoot the three much at all with Cugini gone, but he doesn’t have the same length on the wing (but the 45% shooting in conference play certainly helps). With McIntyre and Weary both gone, Cherry loses the two best defenders at the top of his zone as well. JUCO PG Jalen Williams and SR wing Tarique Thompson will be relied upon to step into that role. FR Cliff Thomas and Luke Vargo are going to be relied upon in the frontcourt behind Madison. It was easy to play small and utilize Cugini as a stretch 4 when you had Brown in the middle, but obviously that’s no longer the case. The Panthers will have some kinks to work out on both ends, but Fox and Madison are capable of easing that transition if they continue to develop. This transition would have been aided by one time HPU commit Chris Orlina, who would have easily been the most talented incoming FR in the Big South this season.

Gardner-Webb returns a core of Tyrell Nelson inside and developing SO point guard Laquincy Rideau, but offense is going to be a major issue for a team that struggled in that regard last year, and now has to replace four members of the backcourt who combined to shoot nearly 600 threes (perhaps this is a blessing in disguise, as Tim Craft’s teams have always been reliant on the three at the cost of some solid block players, like Nelson for example). Rideau is arguably one of the best on ball defenders in the entire country, and a guy I’ve been excited about for a while, but his offense needs to take a major step forward this year if GWU is going to actually contend for a title. He’ll be helped by a couple of additions in the backcourt, namely sharp shooting JUCO Liam O’Reilly and likely secondary ball handler FR Christian Turner. The frontcourt is solid if somewhat underutilized (although GWU also posted the least efficient 2PT offense in the league last year). Returning with Nelson is major rim protector and major fouler L’Hassane Niangane, 6’6 slasher Brandon Miller, and athletic DJ Laster. 6’7 Patrick Zeck was a contributor on both ends on GWU’s mission trip to the Dominican Republic, so he likely factors into the frontcourt equation as well. GWU loses a lot of offense from last year, but how big of a net negative is that when they posted the lowest eFG% in the league? That said, I’m not sure I see anyone really being able to replace that production this season.

Longwood loses basically everyone, but I think the Lancers are going to have a lot more cohesion on the court with Nwogbo, Johnson, and White no longer jockeying with each other for shots. Nevertheless, that’s a lot of production for Khris Lane and the hopefully mentally reset Chris Shields to replace. However, Jayson Gee will have a little more flexibility and depth with this squad, even if he’s not exactly sure where the production is going to come from. Lane will be the key piece offensively this year with his ability to work inside and out offensively, and he’s one of the best all around rebounders in the league. Couple Lane with the 6’8 Shields, and you have arguably the most lethal wing duo in the league. Factor in the return of a healthy Damarion Geter and versatile FR JaShaun Smith, and the Lancer frontcourt/wing rotation looks like the clear strength of the team. The backcourt will be led by one of the best shooters in the entire country, 6’2 SR Darrion Allen. Allen shot 48% from three on the season (10th best rate nationally), and nearly 50% in Big South play, which led the league. Allen is incredibly athletic and versatile, capable of checking opposing 4s even, but his ball skills are going to have to show improvement this year with Gee’s PG situation a little murky. The rest of the backcourt features returning SR Isaac Belton, who can be something of a menace on the perimeter defensively when he’s on the floor…Gee’s son Bryan, who could handle primary PG duties this year…JUCO combo guard Kendrick Thompson…true FR PG Juan Munoz…and former UC Davis recruit Isaiah Walton, who should see immediate minutes because of his wingspan on the perimeter and ability to disrupt defensively, a plus when Gee utilizes his zone press schemes. Gee’s team barely resembles last year’s Lancer squad, but there’s likely going to be better ball movement and cohesion, and hopefully last year’s off court issues are a thing of the past as well. Things are looking up for the Lancers in general, with Mt. St. Mary’s transfer BK Ashe eligible next year.

Barclay Radebaugh is coming off his worst season at Charleston Southern since the 2008-09 campaign, but there’s reason for optimism at Chuck Southern, as Radebaugh added some backcourt firepower to complement his three point reliant, 4 out offense, and CSU should generally have more athleticism and depth this year. The Bucs’ backcourt rotation will feature burgeoning SO PG Armel Potter and volume shooters Patrick Wallace (former Ole Miss recruit) and Rae Robinson (73-177 from 3 last year, hit at the third highest rate in Big South play). However, the talent Radebaugh added should make the Bucs a bit more versatile and longer/more athletic at the top of Radebaugh’s zone. JUCOs Cortez Mitchell (athletic combo guard who can run the point with Potter) and Jamal Thomas (long wingspan and excellent defender) should see immediate minutes, while FR Christian Keeling showed flashes of being a significant contributor offensively in CSU’s 3 game Canadian trip this summer. In a thin frontcourt, Javis Howard (one of Radebaugh’s best ever recruits) should be ready for a breakout year, while RS FR Antwan Maxwell has the potential to be one of the toughest matchups in the league with his size/ball skills combo. The underbelly of CSU’s zone is extremely soft as teams shot a robust 67% at the rim against the Bucs last year, and there isn’t really much help in that regard this year. JUCO Abdul Sarki out of Nigeria has a lot of athleticism around the rim, but he’s incredibly raw. Nevertheless, he could be the only option for the Bucs in terms of rim protection.

THE REST: It was a rough year for Kevin McGeehan in his third season at Buies Creek, as Campbell’s shooting bottomed out, and when you run out a smaller spread motion, Princeton style offense, you have to hit your triples. The Camels shot just 32% from deep in league play, thus they won just 5 games and were bounced in the first round of the Big South Tournament despite being the host school. The Camels have to outshoot teams from three in McGeehan’s Chris Mooney system, because they’re going to get clobbered by anyone with size on both the glass and at the rim. That issue wasn’t really addressed in the offseason, with JUCO Mogga Lado being the only real rim protecting addition. Offensively, Shane Whitfield is the only block option with DJ Mason graduating. Whitfield can put the ball on the floor and draw a lot of contact, as he accrued the 5th highest FT rate in the country last year. That means we could see 5’9 sparkplug Chris Clemons hoist 300 threes in his SO season. Clemons is an electric scorer, but he doesn’t have much help, especially with Troy Harper leaving for Drexel. Kyre Hamer returns as the team’s best perimeter defender, and Khadre Lane has good length and athleticism on the wing, but neither really shoot the ball well enough to fully fit in McGeehan’s offense. Incoming freshmen Cory Gensler, Marcus Burk (Indy kid), and Nick Greely do though, so we could see McGeehan go with a youth movement, especially with his seat getting rather hot. The Camels began the Big South season with two huge wins, at home vs Coastal and then at Winthrop. They then proceeded to lose their next 10 league games. Clemons will be fun to watch again this year, but if the supporting cast doesn’t pour in the three as well within McGeehan’s system, the Camels will once again be blasted in the paint and on the glass by any Big South team with a frontcourt.

End of an era for Radford, as they sustain heavy graduation losses with Mr. Clutch Rashun Davis, Cameron Jones, and YaYa Anderson (although it was an ignominious end for the senior) all departing. You could sense when Radford lost to Presbyterian on a buzzer beater in the first round of the Big South Tournament that Mike Jones knew his window had shut for a while. Of course, I didn’t think the Highlanders would necessarily scratch out 9 wins in their first season without Green and Price, but this is now truly a rebuild year for Jones, both with on court talent and his coaching staff. This year’s Radford squad will revolve around Ed Polite Jr, a hyperly athletic SO wing who draws a ton of contact and can score on the block at just 6’5. As a freshman he was second in both defensive rebounding rate and block rate in the Big South, and he can legitimately defend 2-5. The only thing his game is missing is any semblance of a jump shot, and with Radford losing every one of their jump shooters with the exception of Justin Cousin, Mike Jones is going to need some quick development from SO wing Christian Lutete (who showed some brilliant flashes last year, both inside and outside), 6’6 Sterling Christy, who is coming back from a knee injury, and JUCO Christian Bradford. Highly touted FR PG Carlik Jones out of Cincy should start immediately at PG, so there’s going to be quite a learning curve initially for the Highlanders with a FR PG at the helm. The frontcourt is basically non existent, but that’s nothing new for Jones. If you can crash the offensive glass and get out on the perimeter defensively, where few teams crowd the three point line as well as the Highlanders, you’ll see the floor, which is precisely what FIU transfer Dominique Williams brings to the table. Radford loses a lot, but with Polite, a talented FR PG, and Williams, the Highlanders have a much higher ceiling than some of the other projected bottom half teams in the league.

Gregg Nibert embarks on his 28th season as Presbyterian’s head coach, but unfortunately it should be another bottom half finish for one of the nicest guys in the game. The Blue Hose lose do everything block scorer DeSean Murray to Bruce Pearl and Auburn, as well as Markus Terry, which means a lot of the scoring load falls on Reggie Dillard, a capable if inefficient playmaker and scorer at 6’4. SO Darius Moore showed promise at PG last year, and will have a bigger role, as will Jaron Withers, the team’s best perimeter defender in Nibert’s ubiquitous zone defense. Freshmen JC Younger and Myles McGregor were both high scoring perimeter shooters in high school, so they could see run immediately, especially with Murray gone from the middle, as few teams shot the three as infrequently as the Blue Hose. Nibert has shown he’ll mix in different offensive philosophies depending on his personnel, and with Ed Drew and Austin Venable being the only “proven” paint scorers, this looks like a more perimeter oriented team with opportunities abound for the freshmen.

 

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. Winthrop
2. Liberty
3. UNC Asheville
4. Gardner-Webb
5. Longwood
6. High Point
7. Charleston Southern
8. Radford
9. Campbell
10. Presbyterian

 

 

Big South Tournament Preview

DATES: 3/3-3/6

SITE: Buies Creek, NC Cambell host school

BRACKET

 

WHO SHOULD WIN: Always impossible to pick a Big South team that “should” win the tournament, but to me, #2 Winthrop has looked the best team in the league at different points in the season more than any other team. The Eagles can be lethal offensively as they shoot the 3 at 40% in conference play, they’re the best 2PT% offense in the league, and they can dominate in transition. With electric PG Keon Johnson, sharp shooter Jimmy Gavin, and virtually unguardable stretch Xavier Cooks, the Eagles’ offense can spread the floor, shoot, and attack off the dribble. The issue will be whether they can play defense for three straight days. They don’t generate a lot of steals, but they’re the best rim protecting team in the league with Cooks, Okeke, and Price. If the Eagles patch up the transition defense for three days, which has been an issue all year, they should be fine. Their path to the title could likely go through Coastal Carolina once again, but not in the finals, where they’ve lost to the Chants by double digits two years running. The Eagles and the Chants split this year, but Winthrop would have to get by #7 Radford or #10 Presbyterian first, and the Highlanders proved they could score with the Eagles in both losses, while Winthrop hasn’t played Presbyterian in 3 months. The Highlanders should be on high alert today vs the Blue Hose though, as Mike Jones’ squad can’t defend a soul in the paint, and Presbyterian is of course led by one of the great, lower the shoulder bulldogs in CBB, DeSean Murray. Murray’s just 6’5, but he dominates the paint. The undersized Blue Hose of course have some major issues (they’re the 10 seed for a reason). They can’t shoot when teams collapse on Murray, they don’t have a PG, and their zone gets absolutely torched inside and out. Radford had a brutal back loaded schedule that saw them play Winthrop 2x, UNCA, High Point, Liberty, and Coastal in 6 of their last 8, but the final blow came when they lost a 20 point lead with 10 minutes left at home vs Longwood, when a win would have clinched a much needed bye. They’ve also had some inner turmoil with the apparent dismissal of SR guard Ya Ya Anderson (h/t @Bretjust1T, who you should follow for excellent Winthrop coverage), but they do have a pair of SR guards who could carry them in clutch Rashun Davis and Cam Jones. Either those two rally the team after the disappointing end to the regular season, or it carries over into the tournament. Emotions could be high for the Blue Hose with rumors swirling that his Gregg Nibert’s final year. Nibert, considered to be one of the genuinely nicest coaches in CBB, has been at Presbyterian since 1989.

IF NOT THEM THEN: #4 UNC Asheville is a hard team to figure out. They don’t have a PG or a 5, yet they they’re the best defense in the league and they turn you over at a 24% rate with a 14% steal rate. Nic McDevitt’s squad is comprised entirely of rim attacking tweeners like Dwayne Sutton, Dylan Smith, Ahmad Thomas, and Sam Hughes, and those guys use their versatility to bring a lot of up the line pressure and traps. They can’t and don’t shoot the three, so when they run into zones or teams that feature a steady, veteran backcourt, they can run into trouble. Fortunately for the Bulldogs the one team in their half of the bracket that can give them some trouble, High Point, is likely down John Brown, which is of course an utterly devastating blow. Their second worst matchup would be vs Cliff Ellis’ junk zones, but that would be in the Big South title game. #5 Liberty’s pack line defense and total commitment to getting back defensively in transition has the capability to give UNCA some trouble in the 4/5 matchup, but the Flames still foul a ton out of the pack line, and UNCA’s tweeners have been able to back the Flames down in the middle of the court and work the baseline, and they shot 58 FTs in their two wins over the Flames. Additionally, Liberty’s a team that shoots the 3 at the 5th highest rate in the country, but UNCA’s aggressive perimeter defense hounded Liberty’s John Dawson (I think Dawson would be happy to never see Ahmad Thomas again in his life), and when Dawson isn’t scoring, the Flames generally aren’t scoring. You have to love what Ritchie McKay did in his return to Liberty, as he took a young team left bare from defections and universally considered to be the worst team in the league preseason, implemented a pack line defense, and turned the Flames into contenders virtually overnight. His COY honor was well earned and well deserved, but UNCA was probably the worst draw for his turnover prone offense.

Have to throw #3 Coastal Carolina in this category as well. The Chants are the 2x defending champs, and I’m sure my man Cliff Ellis wants to leave the Big South with a bang, especially after they moved the tournament out of Myrtle Beach when Coastal announced they were joining the Sun Belt. The Chants have been hit hard by injuries from beginning to end this year (they’ll likely be without their best rebounder and rim protector Badou Diagne for the tournament). But Cliff has his trio of guards with Wilson, Wiggins, and Shaw, and you know you’re going to see a ton of different defenses designed to keep you off balance and away from the rim, which is hard to prepare for on back to back situations. It’s a big part of why the Chants are such a good tournament team in recent years. Coastal will have the winner of #6 Gardner-Webb and host #11 Campbell. This is a pretty good matchup for the Camels if they want to win one on their home court and maybe save Kevin McGeehan’s job. Again, Campbell is the 11 seed for a reason, but they run that modified Princeton offense that takes a high volume of threes (McGeehan is a Chris Mooney guy), and they chase shooters off the 3 (usually straight to the rim unfortunately), and Gardner-Webb (frustratingly) loves to chuck the 3 under Tim Craft. These two split in the regular season, with Campbell blowing a late lead in the first meeting, then Gardner-Webb returning the favor in Buies Creek. Tyrell Nelson HAS to stay out of foul trouble because he can dominate a non existent Campbell frontcourt when he’s on the floor. In the loss to the Camels, he only logged 19 minutes and 3 FGAs. In Gardner-Webb’s win in Boiling Springs, he was 10-11 for 27 points and 16 rebounds. Player to watch for the Camels is 5’9 Chris Clemons. The FR volume shooter is poised to be the next Keon Johnson. Gardner-Webb is the worst 2PT% offense in the league, but if McBride, Poston, and Burbage are jacking threes instead of feeding Nelson, they would be doing their team a major disservice. Campbell could be without their best on ball defender Kyre’ Hamer today. Another area of major concern is G-W on the offensive glass. Campbell is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country, and extra possessions could be the difference in this one. Oddly, both of these teams matchup reasonably well against Coastal in the quarter finals, because they’ll both chuck the 3 en masse, and if they’re falling, they have a chance.

SLEEPER: Probably the only conference tournament where the #1 seed will be labeled a sleeper, but that’s exactly what we have here with #1 High Point if they’re without John Brown, as the rumors indicate. Without Brown in the middle things are obviously quite different, but assuming they beat the Longwood/Charleston Southern winner (a pretty big assumption at this point), and UNCA beats Liberty (the Panthers DO NOT matchup well with Liberty at all), things could get interesting because they matchup well with the Bulldogs because they use a lot of zone and don’t turn the ball over, and maybe at that point Brown is ready to go for Winthrop/Coastal in the finals? Obviously I’m getting way ahead of myself, but High Point is going to slow these games to a total crawl with even more zone with Brown out, and they already take away transition opportunities at one of the best rates in the country. If their game vs Presbyterian was any indication, Cherry is going to run methodical motion sets that work to get Weary and Cugini open on the perimeter, and this team of inside/out sharp shooters will be far more reliant on the three. High Point shot the three at nearly 40%, but at the 11th lowest rate in the Big South, which makes sense when you have a monster lurking in the paint. 80 points in 58 possessions is outstanding, but you have to factor in that it was against Presbyterian. High Point has been in this position before of course, as they’ve been the top seed the past 3 seasons and they haven’t won a game in the Big South Tournament, losing all three by one possession. They’ve also played a Big South Tournament without John Brown before, as he was hurt three years ago. Of course, they lost to Liberty in that game, so not much solace to be found there. The Panthers have the winner of #8 Longwood and #9 Charleston Southern, which is probably the most interesting game of the afternoon after last year’s thriller that saw Longwood knock off #1 Charleston Southern, and there were some post game fireworks as well. Of course that was a totally different CSU team with Nimley and Harper, but these Bucs led by freshmen and high major transfers are looking for revenge too after Longwood beat them in Charleston in 2OT. With Robinson, Wallace, and Potter, the Bucs are another high volume three point team that under screens defensively to crash the defensive glass and try to run, which leaves the perimeter wide open. CSU doesn’t have anyone who can guard Lotanna Nwogbo at the rim, so that defense is going to be even saggier than usual, which means White and Obi-Rapu are going to have to hit some jumpers today. Longwood has used a lot of zone because of injuries/suspensions that have limited their roster, but staying off the arc defensively is the only way CSU can win this game offensively. Transition defense has been an issue for Longwood all year as well, and CSU’s defensive rebounding prowess could be a catalyst to transition points if the Lancers are being forced into jump shots.

BIG SOUTH FINALS PREDICTION: 2 Winthrop over 4 UNC Asheville

BIG SOUTH FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS:

CHARLESTON SOUTHERN +3.5

PRESBYTERIAN +7.5

CAMPBELL +1.5

 

An Early Look at the 2015-16 Big South Season

This is the first in my series of mid summer conference previews. I started with the Big South for absolutely no particular reason, maybe it’s because it’s always such a competitive and interesting league year in and year out, and one I particularly enjoy following. The top 5 storylines to watch for the 2015-16 season…

1) High flying John Brown’s return to High Point was somewhat of a surprise. Can he finally lead the Panthers to an NCAA Tournament appearance after three straight years of at least sharing the Big South regular season title but then failing to win a single game in the Big South Tournament?

2) Cliff Ellis’ Coastal Carolina squad lost some key players, but also return a lot of athleticism. Can they three-peat as Big South champs? They also have a fairly historic trip to Cuba on tap this summer.

3) Barclay Radebaugh has built Charleston Southern into annual Big South contenders, but life post Saah Nimley and Arlon Harper is going to be a challenge. Radebaugh has a lot of JUCO and high major talent coming in. Will they gel come tournament time?

4) Longwood is poised to breakout with their best Big South season in 2015-16 after a strong finish at the end of the year that included knocking off top seeded Charleston Southern in the Big South Tournament. Can Jayson Gee’s athletic, fast paced squad handle higher expectations?

5) The league lost a lot of four year stars like Nimley, Harper, Javonte Green, and other standouts like Andrew Rowsey, Keon Moore and Jerome Hill. But expect breakout years from returnees DeSean Murray, Elijah Wilson, Ya Ya Anderson, and Shaq Johnson, and for the new talent like LaQuincy Rideau, Demetrius Pollard, Zach Price, and Rodrick Perkins to bolster the league.

Predicted Order of Finish

1) Winthrop– Coastal might be the team to beat coming in, but I think Winthrop has the most talent on their roster, and it could be just a matter of how early all the new pieces come together for Pat Kelsey’s squad. Replacing Keon Moore, the best player on both ends of the court for the Eagles, is going to be difficult, but Kelsey has a LOT of talent coming in this year. The Eagles could have the best big man in the conference in 6’10 Zach Price (by way of Missouri via Louisville) and they add a high scoring D2 wing in 6’5 Rodrick Perkins to pick up the slack from Moore’s departure, and they’ll join improving Xavier Cooks in the frontcourt. Winthrop also loses Andre Smith and Derrick Henry, and a lot is going to be expected from Keon Johnson in terms of playing more on the ball than off this year, but Kelsey also brings in a couple of talented FR guards to maintain his typical three ball handler offense. Bjorn Broman is a pure scorer who scored 74 in a Minnesota high school game and also has plus passing skills, while Adam Pickett is a constant rim attacker, something Winthrop needed more of last season. Winthrop has the potential to be long and talented from rim to perimeter if everything goes according to plan.

2) Coastal Carolina– The two time defending champs lose Josh Cameron and Warren Gillis, two key SR contributors to that Chants backcourt that has been so key to their Big South runs, but Shivaughn Wiggins returns at PG, Elijah Wilson is back to fill it up from outside and the frontcourt should be stronger than in year’s past. Freakishly athletic Badou Diagne is back to protect the rim and patrol the boards, as is the rapidly improving Marcus Freeman. Add South Carolina transfer Jaylen Shaw to the mix in the backcourt and an expanded role for wing Colton Ray-St.Cyr, and the Chants should be a strong pick to win their third straight NCAA Tournament berth, especially if the newcomers pick up quickly on Cliff Ellis’ constantly shifting zones, which the exhibition games in Cuba should help with. Plus, the Big South tournament is once again being held in Conway.

3) High Point– The window is closing rapidly on Scott Cherry’s squad. The Panthers have finished with at least a share of the best record in the Big South the past three seasons, but then failed to win a single game in the Big South Tournament in each of those three seasons. The good news is that John Brown decided to pass on turning pro or transferring to a major program, so the high flying big man is back to lead the Panthers. Losing Devante Wallace on the perimeter is going to be difficult to overcome, especially since Cherry loves to utilize perimeter length at the top of his otherwise porous zone. If 6’7 FR Ricky Madison can contribute right away in Wallace’s role, the Panthers will once again be at or near the top of the Big South standings.

4) Longwood– The Lancers took a big step in the right direction at the end of last season with a strong finish that included knocking off top seeded Charleston Southern in Conway, and that was without big man Lotanna Nwogbo, who was out with a thumb injury. Nwogbo was turning into a dominant force inside before the injury, so having him healthy for (hopefully) an entire season is significant. Plus Jayson Gee’s team returns PG Leron Fisher and super athletic 3/4 Shaq Johnson. Additionally, they’ll have the services of former Old Dominion big man Jason Pimentel for a full season. The Lancers do lose Quincy Taylor (48% from three last year), and touted wing Kanayo Obi-Rapu needs to make a big jump to fill his shoes. The good news is that Obi-Rapu certainly showed flashes last season of being a consistent wing scorer in games vs Radford and Gardner-Webb. Taylor’s departure will also be offset by the addition of Tra’vaughn White from Duquesne. White is another potential off ball complement to Fisher in the backcourt, and another scorer Gee can use in what was the most up tempo offense in the Big South last year. Drexel transfer Khris Lane will provide some more bulk inside and help spell Nwogbo, but for Longwood to take another big step into a legit Big South title contender, Obi-Rapu and White have to be able to at least partially replicate Taylor and Badowski’s production from outside. Regardless, the Lancers are likely going to be the most exciting team to watch in the Big South again. [UPDATE: Shaquille Johnson and Jason Pimentel have both been suspended indefinitely. Both are still listed on official roster.]

5) Charleston Southern– Barclay Radebaugh has the toughest task ahead of him in the Big South this season, as replacing Saah Nimley is basically impossible, and to make matters worse, the Bucs also lose another four year guard and best perimeter defender in Arlon Harper, and their entire frontcourt. The good news is that Radebaugh is arguably the best coach in the league, and he has a lot of talent transferring in. Northeastern transfer Demetrius Pollard will be relied on immediately to be the primary scorer, and he could flourish in Radebaugh’s three point reliant offense (the Bucs have been a top 25 team in 3PT rate the past three seasons, which is obviously part system/part Nimley). Radebaugh also added NC State transfer Patrick Wallace to the backcourt, a potential stretch 4 in Tennessee St transfer Ugo Mmonu, and a super athletic 4 in former Air Force commit 6’7 Melvin Brooks. Factor in that Javis Howard is likely due for a breakout year after playing abroad with Athletes in Action in the Philippines, and I think you’ll see CSU end up being one of the more dangerous teams when the Big South tourney rolls around if all the new pieces are gelling.

6) Radford– I feel for Mike Jones and Radford. He’s done an outstanding job building that program, but let’s face it, Javonte Green’s senior season last year was their year to get into the tournament, and now their window might be closed for possibly another class cycle. Radford relied so heavily on Green for virtually everything, so replacing that kind of production just isn’t possible. Despite being just 6’4, he was 10th nationally in defensive rebounding rate, 88th in offensive rebounding rate, and 15th in steal rate. The Highlanders were the 4th oldest team in the country last year, and 13th smallest, so they lose a lot of senior leadership (particularly SR combo guard RJ Price) and what Green helped offset size-wise. Jones is going to rely heavily on Rashun Davis at the point and will be banking on Ya Ya Anderson to become a more consistent off ball scorer and hoping that Cameron Jones’ 30-56 shooting from 3 in conference play translates to a similar ratio in a larger role. Incoming FR Ed Polite has to step at least partially into Green’s shoes, because this team is still going to be really small inside, especially with surprising departure of Lucas Dyer.

7) Gardner Webb– I’m just not sure what to make of Gardner Webb, or Tim Craft for that matter. They had the best frontcourt in the conference last season, yet jacked up threes at the third highest rate in conference play. Outstanding PG Tyler Strange graduated, and then Craft learned of the stunning loss of half of that dynamic frontcourt duo when Jerome Hill decided to pursue a professional career. Fortunately for Craft, 6’10 L’Hassane Niangane is eligible this season to join Tyrell Nelson in the frontcourt. But expect the threes to keep flying, as Harold McBride, Dylan Poston, and Adonis Burbage all return, which is nearly 400 3PTAs from last season. Gardner Webb could have the most high impact FR in the Big South this year, as Craft scored big with Laquincy Rideau, who should step into the PG role vacated by Strange starting on day one.

8) Presbyterian– It might not seem like it, but the Blue Hose made a significant step in the right direction last season, winning six Big South games after winning just six in the previous two conference seasons combined. Gregg Nibert loses Jordan Downing and William Truss, but returns the best player in the Big South not named John Brown in sophomore 4 DeSean Murray. Murray doesn’t offer much versatility offensively, but he’s a load on the block, on the glass, and protecting the rim despite being only 6’5 and only playing the second half of the season. Austin Anderson left the program, but that’s likely addition by subtraction, plus sharp shooter Reggie Dillard returns from a knee injury to offset that loss. Davon Bell had a full year at PG to develop, and he showed flashes of being an exceptional passer and rim attacker, but the turnover rate has to decrease in his SO year. Nibert also has some backcourt depth to work with as I expect freak athlete Janeil Jenkins to be a significant contributor. Don’t be fooled by his height. He plays like a 6’5 wing even though he’s just 5’10. His athleticism will be useful if Nibert sticks with the zone to cover up being one of the smallest teams in the country again. This is a team that has the potential to surprise a lot of people and work their way into a top half finish.

9) Campbell– This is something of a make or break year for Kevin McGeehan’s Richmond style offense at Buies Creek. When the live or die by the 3 offense is working, it can be a difference maker, but when it’s producing the results the Camels have put up without the right personnel the past two seasons, it can be frustrating at best for fans and the administration to suffer through. McGeehan loses a lot of his shooting and scoring from last year with Reco McCarter and Andrew Ryan gone, but there is some reason for optimism. Curtis Phillips looks poised to step into Ryan’s role, while do everything 4 DJ Mason returns to the frontcourt. Dual ballhandlers Quinton Ray and Troy Harper return with more experience as well, although turnovers were a major issue for both last season. Additionally, Kyre Hamer showed a lot of promise as a rim attacker and lock down perimeter defender. Lehigh transfer Shane Whitfield will add some much needed bulk in the frontcourt as well.

10) UNC Asheville– Not a whole lot to say about UNCA. Andrew Rowsey’s transfer to Marquette is certainly significant just in terms of his sheer domination of the ball offensively. Perhaps there will be more flow to the offense, but one of the youngest teams in the country last year is going to need to have a lot of perceived role players step up into significant roles. Giacomo Zilli, Kevin Vannetta, and David Robertson give Nic McDevitt some pieces to build on, and Will Weeks is hopefully healthy as well. However, for UNCA to avoid the cellar, they’ll need immediate help from 6’10 Georgia transfer John Cannon and Dwayne Sutton, a 6’5 FR wing out of Louisville.

11) Liberty– As expected, the end of the Dale Layer era brought about a mass exodus, and Ritchie McKay is basically working from scratch in his return to Lynchburg, which is just as well really considering the Flames won two conference games last season. McKay showed he can develop talent quickly during his first stint at Liberty (Seth Curry, Evan Gordon, Jesse Sanders), so the development curve of a lot of new faces might not be as steep as people think. McKay spent the last six seasons as an associate head coach under Tony Bennett at Virginia, so there’s little doubt that he will incorporate pack line principles ASAP at Liberty. Dembley, Retic, Gielo, Moller, Andoh, etc are all gone, so almost all offense will have to work through Theo Johnson and 6’5 wing AC Reid is going to have to make a big leap in McKay’s three point reliant system. At the very least, I think you’re going to see Liberty win more than two Big South games this year, and possibly avoid the cellar, especially since they’ll be stronger in the second half with the eligibility of Marquette transfer John Dawson, a solid on ball defender who will work well in the pack line. [UPDATE: Theo Johnson has been suspended indefinitely.]

Player of the Year: John Brown, High Point

Freshman of the Year: Laquincy Rideau, Gardner Webb

Coach of the Year: Barclay Radebaugh, Charleston Southern

Big South Tournament Preview and Awards

When: 3/4-3/8

Where: Conway, SC

Bracket

Who should win: I don’t know. You tell me. The Big South is probably the most wide open tournament this year, and with played on a (mostly) neutral court, anything can happen. For the sake of the format, we’ll put top seeded Charleston Southern here. The Bucs took the top seed with a thrilling 3OT win at the Buc Dome over High Point, and they have the senior backcourt that is so often key this time of year with Saah Nimley (how can you not be rooting for Saah after it seemed like his career might be over?) and Arlon Harper. This is the 2nd most experienced team in the entire country, and Radebaugh basically relies on 5 seniors and a junior, so they don’t have a bench. Like at all. Therefore they’re almost always in a zone (plus they have no height), and like a lot of Big South teams, they take a lot threes. Last year Charleston Southern’s season was derailed by injuries to Nimley and Harper, and the season before they were stunned in the finals by 10th seeded Liberty. You have to believe Nimley and Harper are going to give it everything they have this week.

If not them then…: I might as well quickly break down a few teams in this section. Second seeded High Point has been ousted as the top seed the past two years, and last year it was on a buzzer beater by Winthrop, so they certainly have a lot of motivation going into this week, plus they’ve never been to the dance. High flying John Brown is of course the centerpiece of the offense, and they don’t take a lot of threes as a team, but when teams collapse or double Brown, they generally make teams pays from outside, hitting at a 43% clip in conference play thanks to Wallace and Cugini. The issue can be the defense. The Panthers are generally in a few different zone looks to protect Brown, and Cherry thinks it’s what works best for the length he has on the perimeter. The problem is that there are some teams who can get hot in a hurry from outside in this league, and an athletic team like Radford had no problem penetrating the zone in both meetings this year, while a team like Coastal Carolina beat it inside and outside in their sweep of the Panthers.

Speaking of Coastal Carolina, they’re the 3 seed and the champs get to defend their title on their homecourt again. The season seemed to be getting away from the Chants in mid to late January, as they lost four of five and Josh Cameron and Cliff Ellis were openly feuding. They’ve since seemingly buried the hatchet and they’ve won six of their last eight coming in. The Cameron/Wilson/Gillis trio has been here before, plus they have another lightning quick guard who can get to the FT line at will in Wiggins this year, but the biggest development has been the play of Marcus Freeman. He has helped turn Coastal into the best rebounding team in the league and gives them a shot blocking presence that lets Diagne become more of a roving defender in the different zone looks Ellis throws out to keep teams off balance and running clock.

Fourth seeded Radford is the most athletic team in the Big South, and could have easily have been the one seed if not for some bad 2OT luck to start conference play. Of all the Big South contenders, they’re the least reliant on the 3 and unlike a lot of Big South teams, they never play zone, as they’re one of the best teams in the country at pushing you off the three point line with their versatile, athletic (if undersized) defenders. Having the most efficient two point offense in the Big South is sort of like leading AAA in homeruns. Practically every team plays a packed in zone, at least in large stretches, and Radford is going to have to prove they can hit some shots to win this tournament. Led by Javonte Green and RJ Price, this the third most experienced team in the country, and you get the sense that the window is closing on this veteran group to make some noise. Mike Jones has done a terrific job rebuilding the Highlanders, but this season was to be the culmination of those efforts. This is certainly a team to be feared this week, but first they have to get past fifth seeded Winthrop. Radford swept the Eagles, with a win in Rock Hill in a defense optional game, and then at home because their guards were too physical on the three point line for the smaller Winthrop backcourt. That’s why I don’t think Winthrop is long for this tournament. I’m not necessarily a subscriber to the “it’s hard to beat a team three times”, as often the losing team lost twice simply because it’s just a bad matchup for them, and that’s the way it is with Winthrop vs Radford. The Highlanders aren’t looking to shoot the 3, and Winthrop aggressive man to man is built to take that away, and Radford’s athleticism simply overwhelmed the smaller Eagles backcourt in both games. Conversely, Winthrop’s offense is built around Andre Smith, Keon Moore, and Keon Johnson firing away from three, and Radford’s defense, as mentioned earlier, chases you off the three as well as anyone in the country.

Sleeper: Gardner-Webb swept Coastal and they beat Radford and Charleston Southern, but this is a frustrating team, and I can’t really understand what Tim Craft is trying to accomplish exactly every time I watch them play. They have the shortest APL in the conference offensively, and tend to take a ton of really quick threes despite having two studs on the block in Hill and Nelson. I get that they’re one of the smallest teams in the country, and Craft wants to get up and down with one of the best passers in college basketball in Strange leading the charge, but this is the Big South. No one else has any real height, and Hill and Nelson have proven they can be dominant on the block despite being undersized. The quick threes often lead to runouts for the opposing team, and as a result, the Bulldogs’ defensive numbers are horrendous. They might not get out of the opening round tomorrow vs a Campbell team they should have been swept by. They run out of Buies Creek in the first meeting, and then rallied from 10 down with 3 minutes left to win in OT at home in the second meeting. Gardner-Webb went 9-46 in those two games. Hill was able to get to the FT line at will when he got the ball, and G-W obviously needs to work through him and Nelson tomorrow. Campbell meanwhile takes as many threes as any team in the country with McGeehan’s modified Princeton system. In the first meeting with G-W it was all working. The Bulldogs overplayed the three early and got torched with backcuts to the tune of 1.22ppp. In the second meeting, a 29% turnover rate did them in. Can Campbell get hot and win tomorrow? Certainly. Can they get hot and make a deep run in the Big South tournament overall? I’m highly dubious.

Deep sleeper: What could have been a very good year for UNC Asheville was derailed with injuries to Ubaru and Weeks, and forced the rapid development of FR Zilli and the reliance on more minutes from seven footer Roberts. But the Bulldogs still have the most dangerous player in the league in a survive and advance setting, and that’s Andrew Rowsey, and it appears he’s rediscovered his swagger at the right time. Rowsey has scored 66 points the past two games, and is looking to attack the rim more aggressively lately as well. They play a Liberty team that they handled with ease in both games, including a blowout just this past Saturday, but the Flames have a few things going for them. One, Andrew Smith has been playing with a ton of confidence on the block lately, and they have PG Joe Retic back with some minutes under his belt.

I’ll consider the winner of Longwood and Presbyterian a deep sleeper as well, as both can be dangerous teams, especially Longwood with the disruptive ball pressure they can apply with Shaq Johnson and particularly Leron Fisher. The teams split two 71-67 decisions at each other’s gyms, so they’re pretty evenly matched, although Presbyterian was without William Truss in their loss to the Lancers. Longwood certainly has the advantage in the backcourt over the younger and turnover prone Blue Hose guards with Taylor and Fisher, but DeSean Murray, Jordan Downing, and William Truss hold a significant advantage in the frontcourt. It’s a shame that Nwogbo isn’t likely to be able to go tomorrow for Longwood, as the Lancers didn’t get to play Presbyterian with him. He would certainly make an enormous difference. The Lancers do however have a card up their sleeve, as Jason Pimentel is eligible now. He missed both games vs Presbyterian, and he can certainly provide some quality minutes on the glass. Ultimately, I think Longwood’s guards are too much for the Blue Hose, especially if Obi-Rapu Jr provides some instant offense off the bench when Longwood is with their smaller lineup. No team in the country allows more points from 3 than Presbyterian, and Longwood’s ability to shoot the ball and generate turnovers will negate the Blue Hose’s strength in the frontcourt. Longwood also gave Charleston Southern fits this year, and nearly knocked them off in Farmville.

Predictions: Longwood over Presbyterian (Longwood -2), Gardner-Webb over Campbell (Campbell +6), UNC Asheville over Liberty

Quarterfinals: Charleston Southern over Longwood, Radford over Winthrop, High Point over Gardner-Webb, Coastal Carolina over UNC Asheville

Semifinals: Radford over Charleston Southern, Coastal Carolina over High Point

Finals: Coastal Carolina over Radford

WES REYNOLDS ALL BIG SOUTH PICKS:

Coach of the Year: Barclay Radebaugh – Charleston Southern
This was a tough call since the league was so tight at the top between five teams. CSU won 6 of their last 7 to snatch the 1 seed in the Big South Tournament. The Buccaneers’ win at Ole Miss was arguably the Big South’s biggest out of league win since Gregg Marshall’s Winthrop team beat Notre Dame in the 2007 NCAA Tournament.

Player of the Year: Saah Nimley – Charleston Southern
Led the league in scoring at 21.5 ppg and in 3-point makes with 3.52/game. The only player in the country this season with four consecutive 30-point efforts, Nimley averaged 34.1 points in those seven games and posted the Conference’s top three scoring nights this season with 39 points at Radford (Feb. 6), 38 in the regular-season finale against High Point, and 37 vs. Gardner-Webb (Jan. 24).

First Team:
Saah Nimley (5-8, 158, Sr) – Charleston Southern
John Brown (6-8, 205, Jr) – High Point
Jerome Hill (6-5, 210, Jr) – Gardner-Webb
Javonte Green (6-4, 205, Sr) – Radford
Keon Moore (6-5, 190, Sr) – Winthrop

All-Freshmen:
DeSean Murray (6-5, 210) – Presbyterian (Freshman of the Year)
Xavier Cooks (6-8, 185) – Winthrop
Kevin Vannatta (6-3, 188) – UNC Asheville
Ryan Badowski (6-3, 185) – Longwood
Curtis Phillips (6-5, 185) – Campbell

WES’ BIG SOUTH FINAL PREDICTION: WINTHROP OVER HIGH POINT

JORDAN’S ALL BIG SOUTH PICKS

Player of the Year: Saah Nimley, Charleston Southern (I’m an unrepentant Saah lover, who else would I say here?)

Freshman of the Year: DeSean Murray, Presbyterian

Coach of the Year: Barclay Radebaugh, Charleston Southern

All Big South First Team:

Saah Nimley, Charleston Southern

Keon Moore, Winthrop

Javonte Green, Radford

Jerome Hill, Gardner-Webb

John Brown, High Point

All Freshmen Team:

DeSean Murray, Presbyterian

Xavier Cooks, Winthrop

Curtis Phillips, Campbell

Kevin Vannatta, UNC Asheville

Ryan Badowski, Longwood

I believe this is exactly the same as Wes’ picks. Oh well.