1/1 Sunday Thoughts

1 Jan

PREDICTIONS: 760-589-22, 156-126-6

Maryland -7.5

Syracuse -10

Illinois State -1 (Been going back and forth on this one, but can’t get past major size advantage ISUred has, especially with their ability to utilize it on the perimeter against a jump shooting Rambler team.)

DePaul +2.5 (Maybe the length of Garrett/Cain bothers Ponds/LoVett? Can go either way here.)

Wichita State -23

Michigan -1.5

Penn State +2.5 [UPDATE 2:15pm: Would have likely picked Rutgers with Corey Sanders confirmation and this update from PSU’s twitter account “Several players & staff members battled stomach flu-like symptoms thru-out week. All able to play, but starters/mins will be managed” C’est la vie.]

Butler -10.5

LA Tech -12.5 UPDATE: Khari Price returning in a very limited capacity today for USM. Not necessarily an opinion changer today, but obviously gives Doc Sadler the PG he’s been lacking all year going forward

Evansville -2 (Close to bold here, as Marty Simmon’s motion tends to struggle against UNI’s compact defense, but this isn’t the same Jacobson defense of years past, as he’s more 3/4 court pressure and way more zone than I’ve ever seen from him. Just don’t know what to expect from UNI at this point, especially with a young PG. These battles are always razor thin, with UNI winning all 3 by a combined 7 points last year, all with nearly identical mid 50s scores.) UPDATE: Boo Gibson apparently out, which leaves Evansville thin in the backcourt in addition to the frontcourt. Solid ballhandler in Simmons’ motion and a better defender.

UTEP +2.5 (Can UTEP be this bad to lose at UTSA to start the CUSA season? Yes. Henson has UTSA has defending and rebounding, two areas that UTEP struggles in, but UTEP has a major advantage in the backcourt.)

Seton Hall -3

Purdue -12.5

San Diego State -8.5 (Near bold here vs UNM, Aztecs take away every single aspect of what UNM wants to do offensively, but once again, Pope and Shrigley are banged up and questionable. I would guess Shrigley goes, Pope doesn’t.)

Southern Illinois -7.5 (Dependent on status of SIU’s best defender Armon Fletcher, key to Hinson’s entire defensive scheme. If he’s out, I would have to switch to Drake.) UPDATE: Fletcher is indeed out, so would switch to Drake

MTSU -9 (Some major revenge in mind for the Blue Raiders, having lost 5 in a row to UAB and getting worked in Murfreesboro last year. UAB can’t hit from the perimeter consistently unless Williams goes off, and Lavender is going to have trouble navigating the ever morphing 1-3-1, or 2-2-1, or 1-2-2. Either way, it’s tricky and hard to handle if you’re unfamiliar with it.)

Colorado +5 (I think Utah still has some fairly glaring issues in terms of defense against dribble penetration and transition, two areas Buffs can exploit. Older Buffs looking to avenge two meltdowns vs Utah last year, Utah young/still meshing. Think the Buffs stay within a possession, even if Kuzma goes, which is likely.)

Ohio State +1.5 (Simply put, I’m not sure how Illinois scores. They rely on a lot of two point jumpers, which sort of feeds into the teeth of OSU’s defense, who contests them as well as any team in the country.)

 

Tulane +24.5

Arizona -5.5

Washington State +12

Cal -9 (Bad ASU team runs into an angry Cal team who doesn’t allow you to beat them in transition or from the perimeter, which are ASU’s only paths to offense generally. Cal’s offense can struggle, but should find some offense through Rabb that will be more than enough.)

As always, feel free to hit me up with any ? and comments on twitter @jorcubsdan

Thanks for reading!

 

 

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2 Responses to “1/1 Sunday Thoughts”

  1. Schmit January 1, 2017 at 3:37 pm #

    Thoughts on Colorado and Utah today? Happy new year

    • jorcubsdan January 1, 2017 at 5:08 pm #

      Thanks and you too. I think Utah still has some fairly glaring issues in terms of defense against dribble penetration and transition, two areas Buffs can exploit. Older Buffs looking to avenge two meltdowns vs Utah last year, Utah young/still meshing.

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