11/30 Wednesday Thoughts

30 Nov

PREDICTIONS: 350-255-8, 90-66-3

New Hampshire +12 (I’m a fan of this UNH team, but this is a bad matchup scheme wise. UNH is a three point shooting offense against PC’s lengthy perimeter that aggressively shades the arc, and the Wildcats interior defense is suffering with a still suspended (as far as I know) Jacoby Armstrong missing from the middle, but UNH does have a few things working for them tomorrow as I’m not sold on PC’s 2PT offense from Bullock and Holt, and they have URI looming on Saturday. UNH a veteran team with veteran guards and a defense stretching scorer)

Temple +1 (These games always come down to a possession (at least 3 of the last 4 have), but Temple is the better team. Essentially comes down to whoever hits more jump shots against schemes that you basically have to beat with jump shots, especially with no transition points coming from backcourts that don’t turn the ball over. I’ll take the Owls in that scenario. Way more time for Martelli to prepare though)

Illinois State -11

Michigan -4.5 (We’ll see if Michigan’s transition defense has improved from last year. Or if their perimeter shooting has from the South Carolina game against Buzz’s packed in defense. Hokies want to run off makes and misses equally, and Michigan wasn’t great defending in transition last year.)

FIU +10.5¬†(FIU’s guards should be able to get the rim routinely against a mediocre at best dribble penetration defense, and Elon’s been on the right side of luck while FIU has been on the wrong side early this year. Think they’re probably a lot closer than double digits apart. Anthony Evans’ insistence on a zone is a little perplexing, but FIU saw this motion offense last year too (it didn’t go great), but the Panthers are far more perimeter oriented this year)

Purdue +6 (Not buying Purdue handling pressure still, but their press break offense has been hyper efficient if/when they do handle pressure. Can Louisville put the ball in the basket enough in halfcourt when they don’t generate a turnover? )

TCU -8

Marshall +1 (Not high on Marshall this year really, but they have Taylor back, Elmore wasn’t eligible for this game last year, and Ohio is banged up (and overrated to begin with), and just not very good defensively, and that includes in transition against the uptempo Herd UPDATE: Thompson out for Marshall, which means no defense against Tony Campbell. This pick looks DOA)

Eastern Michigan -7.5 (UDM has shown they can handle pressure and shot, both of which are necessary against EMU’s hyper aggressive 2-3 zone. The Titans are likely going to be fine offensively. What they haven’t shown is the ability to play any semblance of defense. JTIV should eat inside, and EMU can routinely win off the dribble)

Georgia State -8 (Impressed with what Nagy’s done at Wright State so far, but GSU’s aggressive, athletic matchup zone is a tough matchup scheme wise for the Raiders’ drag screen transition offense)

Cornell +2.5 (Cornell’s missing frontcourt might not hurt them against a Northeastern offensive scheme that spaces their bigs away from the paint most times down court. Big Red can chuck it. If they’re hot they’ll win in Ithaca)

Dartmouth +15 (Scheme wise this is fundamentally a brutal matchup for Dartmouth, but I don’t think you can rely on the ODU offense to outscore anyone by 15. Boudreaux is going to be a nonfactor against ODU’s stifling halfcourt defense, so Smith is going to have knock down stuff from outside for DC to have any chance)

Morehead State -6.5 (Hard to say exactly what the mindset of Morehead State is right now given the circumstances, but this is a good matchup on paper for the Eagles against a jump shooting NKU team)

Western Michigan +5.5 (UNCW far and away the better team, but a weird jaunt up to Kzoo, WMU has solid ball handlers led by Wilder against UNCW press, and Hawkins will throw a zone out against the Seahawks. Should be an ugly win for UNCW)

Miami FL -17

James Madison +4.5 (Holmes off suspension, and that gives Rowe a legit PG, but who knows how much he’s ready to play in his second game. Charlotte offers no resistance defensively in the paint, and this HAS to be a game Yo Dalembert dominates in. Have to be concerned about JMU zone against a Charlotte team that can light it up from outside)

Ole Miss -5.5 (Tough matchup for MTSU against 1-3-1 (although Kermit plays a morphing 1-3-1 himself so the players should recognize it) because the Blue Raiders have changed into a pure post touch offense this year with Williams eligible, no longer the space your bigs away from the rim offense of last year. That said, MTSU is capable of shooting the ball, led by Giddy Potts. It’s just not how they filter offense this year)

Hopefully able to update later games with analysis…

Northern Illinois +5

South Alabama -3.5

Arkansas State -6.5

Colorado State +15

Western Kentucky +1 (Both of these defenses are excessively bad and WKU doesn’t have a PG. Who knows)

Kansas State -14

St. Bonaventure -7.5

Northern Iowa -14

Marquette -24

Fort Wayne -5.5

Drake +10

SMU -5.5

Louisiana Tech +14

Texas Southern +17

Wyoming -7

Virginia -10.5

North Carolina -3

Clemson -11

Southern Utah +9.5 (The revenge of Todd Simon)

BYU -9

UC Irvine +1

USC -17

CSUF +4

St. Mary’s -2.5

UC Riverside +23.5

 

 

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