3/10 Thursday Thoughts

10 Mar

PREDICTIONS (2021-1563-101):

A few quick notes on the early afternoon games…

EASTERN MICHIGAN +5 (Akron’s prolific three point offense (3rd highest attempt rate in the country and they shoot 39%) can torch EMU’s 2-3 zone, and they did already in their lone meeting, going for 92 on 1.30ppp. Of course EMU is an offense that is capable of exposing every issue Akron’s defense has, and those are myriad. The Zips will chase you off the three, but EMU’s a team of penetrators who will blow right you by, and Akron has been horrific vs dribble penetration. They also can’t defend in the post, especially without Forsythe, and JTIV is a known monster on the block, and he was in early foul trouble and was essentially a nonfactor offensively in the first meeting, a 92-88 loss. Lastly, Akron’s a really bad transition defense, and EMU’s a downhill, transition offense. There’s going to be enormous runs by both teams in this game, and it’s likely to be another high scoring affair. The Zips really needed the extra time off too, as basically everyone is suffering from an ankle injury on that team)

FORDHAM +5 (Neubauer’s team is playing well, and they beat Richmond without Mandell Thomas, at Richmond. I still want to believe in the Spiders though, and they can handle Fordham’s zone traps, and played well offensively without relying on the three in the second meeting, like they did in the first meeting. Apparently the flu has been running through the Spiders, which is awful timing, and no Marshall Wood, who torched the Rams in the first go round, which coincidentally the Rams didn’t have Chartouny for. Fordham fully healthy, the Spiders aren’t)

GEORGETOWN +11.5 (Having Hayes back is a plus, and the Hoyas were able to generate some offense in the paint/midrange game in the last regular season game vs Nova, and the Hoyas generally do a good job of chasing teams off the 3. I’ll give them a slim chance to stay in this one today, especially if Ochefu is limited/resting)

NORTH CAROLINA -7.5 (Still no frontcourt for Pitt, UNC’s still a horrific matchup for them, and the Heels got the first meeting into the 70s possession wise, which is a feat against the Panthers, one of two teams to do it in regulation this year in ACC play)

MICHIGAN -3 (I’ll rely on Beilein to have finally figured out a way to defend Northwestern’s pick and roll without leaving Olah wide open. He’s dominated UM, but the Wolverines also missed a ton of wide open jumpers in the regular season meeting)

TEXAS +2.5 (I’ll take Shaka with the extra prep if the Horns can actually knock down some jumpers and slow the game to a crawl like they did in Waco. Obviously, if Ridley is good to go, he can help against Baylor dominating frontcourt)

WESTERN KENTUCKY +7 (Grudge match for WKU and Harper has basically been fixated on the Blazers, but can they limit turnovers vs the up the line traps, and can they do anything about UAB’s frontcourt on both ends? Rostov and Lawson have been playing their best basketball of late. They’ll be key today)

ARKANSAS +3

TIMESTAMPED 2:00 PM EASTERN USING PINNACLE LINES ON MADDUX SPORTS

DUKE -2

ILLINOIS +10.5

PROVIDENCE +4 (Friars don’t have to rely on jump shots vs Butler)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -5.5 (Opposite of above, Chips don’t utilize paint touches off post feeds in their offense, which BGSU is excellent at denying. Trio of PGs is going to wreak havoc offensively for CMU)

GEORGE WASHINGTON -14

TIMESTAMPED 2:43PM EASTERN 

UC DAVIS +8 [Officially no Neal Monson, which makes this a lame duck]

WEBER STATE -8.5

KANSAS -12

SAN DIEGO STATE -8

OREGON -8

SOUTH FLORIDA +2.5

VANDERBILT -12

OLD DOMINION -2.5

PRAIRIE VIEW A&M +6

 

Sorry everyone, wanted to get SBC/WAC tournament previews up, but didn’t have time. Back to analysis tomorrow. Here’s the beloved “time stamp” for the evening predictions…

4:07 PM EASTERN USING PINNACLE LINES ON MADDUXSPORTS:

UTAH VALLEY +2 (Wolverines don’t turn the ball over with steady senior PG Marcel Davis, and they can shoot. Tough matchup for UMKC’s Pitinoesque zone press. UVU swept the Roos, but first win came with Roos missing Tez Harrison, and Shayok in the second)

NORTH DAKOTA -2.5

NEW MEXICO -4

ARIZONA -8

SOUTH ALABAMA +4

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA +1.5

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE -5.5

UCF -4.5

OHIO -3.5 [Maric back for NIU]

RHODE ISLAND -8

OHIO STATE -5.5

MTSU -3.5

OLE MISS -3

WEST VIRGINIA -15.5

XAVIER -10

VIRGINIA -10

CSUB -18.5

SHSU -10

BETHUNE-COOKMAN -1

SACRAMENTO STATE +8.5

TEXAS STATE +2.5

WISCONSIN -6

FRESNO STATE -3

USC +6.5

BUFFALO -6

OKLAHOMA -4.5

DAVIDSON -11

VIRGINIA TECH +9.5

ALABAMA STATE +2

MARSHALL -5.5

GEORGIA -1.5

SETON HALL -1.5

SEATTLE -6.5

IDAHO +1.5

BOISE STATE -7

CAL -7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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