Tim Craft probably has to bite the bullet and go with the talented FR Laquincy Rideau full time at the point. He may not be ready to run an offense, but as it is, the only player generating offense for Gardner-Webb in the limited minutes that I’ve seen them is Tyrell Nelson passing out of double teams. Rideau has been a turnover machine when he’s been in, but so has everyone else frankly, and the trade off is that you’re getting one of the best young on ball defenders in the Big South in the game. Gardner-Webb has no height, but somehow Tennessee is even smaller. That being said, Craft’s teams have proven they’re going to chuck the 3, and that’s not a viable strategy against a Rick Barnes team………Pretty tough matchup for Lipscomb, as they get FAU in their final game of the Oxford tournament. Michael Curry’s sole mission defensively is to chase teams off the three point line, and Lipscomb’s sole mission offensively is to chuck the three. The Bison base defense is a zone, and FAU’s 4 guard lineup just saw a better zone press from Miami last night. Solomon Poole made an appearance finally for the Owls, playing 11 minutes and somehow picking up 4 fouls and 3 turnovers. Hopefully for the Owls he’s ready to contribute at a rate more consistent with his performance last year. Curry looks like he found a big man in the 4 out 1 in offense with an in shape CJ Turman. When he has stayed out of foul trouble, Turman has been an outstanding rim protector and legit post scorer. When Ron Delph becomes eligible and if Poole gets going, the Owls are a sleeper of sorts in the CUSA………Much better effort defensively from Mississippi State against Texas Tech, but they’re still not close to defending like the Ben Howland teams we know from the past. They’re taking away the 3 just fine, but Gavin Ware is the only interior defender, and the rim is wide open when he gets in foul trouble. If undersized Camyn Boone and Obediah Church give MSU issues inside today for Missouri State, it’s going to be a long season in Starkville……….Old Dominion was just suffocated yesterday afternoon by Purdue. They literally couldn’t even get a shot off, and Trey Freeman might have scored every Monarch point, at least that’s the way it seemed. 39 total points on .64ppp for ODU yesterday, as they couldn’t combat the Boiler length. The Monarchs should have trouble scoring inside again today, but Freeman, Bacote, Baker, Caver and the recently reinstated Mosley will at least have looks from outside against the sagging St. Joe’s defense. Lost in the dominating Purdue defensive performance was the fact that ODU’s defense continued to be rock solid, even while being shorthanded in the frontcourt. Pervier struggled against the height of Purdue, but he provided 19 minutes of solid interior defense, and Taylor has the versatility to guard Bembry…………It’s a strange lineup for Jim Christian at Boston College, as he blends veterans like Eli Carter, Dennis Clifford, and Garland Owens with talented freshmen like AJ Turner, Matt Milon, and Jerome Robinson, but so far it has been working. The main objective today is keeping Clifford and Idy Diallo on the court and out of foul trouble against a one dimensional Harvard offense that’s looking for paint touches with Edosomwan on most possessions. Doubling Edosomwan and making him prove he can pass out of a double team is always recommended, and although Christian doesn’t really do it often, extending guard pressure with Carter and the bigger Robinson on the FR McCarthy is also recommended, as we saw Kris Dunn absolutely terrorize the Harvard backcourt the other night………Adrian Diaz might record a triple double with blocks this year for FIU. He’s been one of the best big men in the country early in the season. Albert Owens is a serviceable and consistent big for Oral Roberts, but Diaz has a clear advantage today. Anthony Evans has surrounded Diaz with a slashing wing in Draper (who is questionable today) and some reliable shooters, but PG play has been a major issue. Tashawn Desir was expected to solidify what was a problem area last year, but he left the team, and it appears FR Kimar Williams isn’t quite ready for the role full time. That’s left SO Eric Nottage and Ray Rodriguez as the “ball handlers”, roles they’re not comfortable with, and the turnovers are undermining what’s otherwise a solid offense. Defensively you know Evans is going to zone ORU to try to keep Emegano and Jeffries out of the lane. You have to keep those guys off the FT line to have any chance against ORU, but the problem is they’re so relentless attacking, and Emegano can hit jumpers too. He’s just a really good offensive basketball player……….Duke’s ceiling is obviously very high, but they’re still figuring some things out. The good news is that Thornton looked great on Friday night vs VCU. No idea who wins this one, but I’m not sure anyone on Duke can guard DSR right now, at this moment……..Towson might destroy Bradley on the glass and shoot a ton of FTs, but I’m not sure I’ve seen a team play as hard as Wardle has the Braves playing right now. They’ve just run out of gas against much more skilled teams, and to be frank, with Moto Towson has more skill as well, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Bradley leave Charleston with a win. They might get a boost too with the return of Antoine Pittman today……….I’m sure Tubby would love some revenge today, but you have to be able to make jump shots against Minnesota, and I don’t think Texas Tech can do that consistently enough. This game smells like a 70+ free throw shooting contest…….
PREDICTIONS (143-100-3):
Tennessee -13
Old Dominion -1
FAU -2.5
Miss State -6
BC -4.5
Georgetown +6
Oral Roberts -4.5
Bradley +2.5
Minnesota -1
2PM Predictions:
Miami OH’s frenetic trapping and pressing style has to have them worn out with their third game in three days. Northeastern isn’t known for their ability to handle a press exactly, but they have a superior frontcourt and Coen’s defenses take away the three point line as well as any in the country (they looked much sharper against Lipscomb’s three point attack last night). If Miami’s four guard lineup can’t fire away from 3 and generate turnovers, they’re going to have trouble scoring…..I’ve been impressed by Georgia Tech’s guards in terms of handling ball pressure so far, something I was skeptical of vs Green Bay, and with Adam Smith they have some legitimate perimeter options. If Georgia Tech handles the ETSU zone press half as well as they handled Green Bay, they should be fine. If they struggle with turnovers or can’t hit shots to stretch out the zone and their height advantage gets mitigated (Jurkin can only go ~10 min per game), ETSU will hang around……..Press, rebound, and run is Omaha’s style. Colorado has had major issues with ball pressure, and the Mavs can battle on the glass, which limits a lot of what Tad wants to do offensively. The Mavs will be without Marcus Tyus still, but they’re not unfamiliar with playing in high altitude thanks to the wacky Summit. Dev Patterson hasn’t shot the ball like he can, and he’ll have opportunities against Colorado’s perimeter defense. I think UNO can stick around a little bit if Patterson and Hollins’ ball pressure gets to Collier and Talton……It’s early, but Northern Colorado’s defense looks as bad, if not worse, than it did last year, and it was the third worst in the country in terms of DE rating. They don’t have any interior defense at all, and going zone and sagging off the perimeter did nothing to stop UMBC’s Cody Joyce last night, who went off for 30 in the paint. Austin Peay isn’t anything special, but they do have a legit post presence in Chris Horton. That’s enough for me to believe they’ll have a chance to win, even in back to back elevation games when they’ve never played in altitude before……UMBC’s talent level is much higher than people realize, as they have a phenomenal PG with Rodney Elliott healthy, and Aki Thomas has the depth to extend his guards and generate turnovers, especially with 6’6 wing Joe Sherburne. They’re also healthier inside with Darley back to help Cody Joyce. The offense might struggle as Cal Poly takes away the 3 point line and Callero likes goes to the match up zone often with back to back games in high altitude, but the Retrievers are going to keep this one close……
Northeastern -2
ETSU +17.5
Omaha +18
UMBC +13.5
Niagara -5.5
Austin Peay +2
Wisconsin’s secondary ball handlers are going to be tested in a big way by VCU. Happ is lost defensively, but Bo has to keep him on the court for his offense. Tough to rely on turning over a Wisconsin team to win, but this isn’t a typical Wisconsin team. Yet………UT Martin is a disaster. They don’t have a PG and JMU is looking to close out their tourney in strong fashion. Curry should have a big game…..Seton Hall is struggling to shoot from outside and is reliant on penetration/getting to FT line at this point in the season. That’s not ideal vs Ole Miss’ zone looks…..Oakland and Colorado State is going to be fun. Led by Kay Felder and an athletic wing corps bolstered by Big 12 transfers, Kampe wants to get up and down the floor. Eustachy will be happy to oblige and the CSU backcourt of Gillon, Scott, Clavell is severely underrated, and could shred an Oakland zone. Eustachy is going to go under screens all day, limit penetration from Felder (and keep him off the FT line) and crash the glass. Oakland might have Jalen Hayes back, which would be helpful on the backboards, but I’m not sure they’ll be able to maintain their pace in the altitude, and the Rams eventually wear them down inside with Omogbo dominating the offensive glass……Slocum wants to run this year with Youngstown State, but that’s going to be hard on back to back off 3OT, but BGSU doesn’t pose a threat with their turnover issues. The Falcons are going to have trouble scoring until FR Lillard in the backcourt and FR Worrell in the frontcourt get more experience…..Wyoming’s defense turns you into a jump shooting team, and Montana State is best when Colbert is getting into the lane, and they might not have suspended shooter Holm. That being said, Wyoming looks like a strictly jump shooting team offensively, something the Bobcats haven’t seen this year since they’ve played attacking Hawaii, attacking Nevada, and no jump shooting SJSU. Weird in season non conference “home and home” (although this game is in Billings, not Bozeman)…….
PREDICTIONS:
JMU -11
Ole Miss -3
VCU +2
Colorado St -7.5
Youngstown St +4
Montana St +7
Unfortunately I have some obligations that will prevent me from previewing the evening slate, but predictions are as follows…..
Tulane -6
Utah -6
Yale +13.5
Akron +16.5
Jacksonville St +17
Purdue -6
Fresno St -5.5
Oregon -6.5
Indiana St +8
North Dakota +4.5
LBSU +4.5
Butler +3.5
Northwestern St +30
Vermont -3
Hofstra +4.5
Virginia -20
St. Mary’s -3
Staring at the Floorboards 
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